Displaying items by tag: Anhui Conch
Update on China, April 2024
03 April 2024We turn to look at the Chinese cement sector now that the larger China-based cement producers have released their financial results for 2023. In summary, national output of cement has continued to fall and many of the bigger companies are reporting weakening sales and profits. Yet this trend appears to be slowing, with a few of the producers managing to grow revenue, profits and sales volumes.
Graph 1: Cement output in China, 2018 to 2023. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China shows that cement output fell by 4.5% year-on-year from 2.11Bnt in 2022 to 2.02Bnt in 2023. This is a slower rate of decline than the 10.4% drop reported between 2021 and 2022. However, it is worth noting that the rate of decrease in output on a half-year basis fell strongly in the first half of 2023 but remained similar in the second half of the year. In its commentary, the China Cement Association (CCA) said that the country’s real estate development investment fell by 10% year-on-year to US$1.53tn.
Graph 2: Sales revenue from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.
Graph 3: Sales volumes of cement and clinker from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.
Unlike in 2022 the two graphs above show that not every cement producer has lost revenue or sales volumes of cement in 2023. CNBM chair Zhou Yuxian used the phrase ‘storms and challenges’ to describe the situation faced by the world’s largest cement company. He left president Wei Rushan to deliver the bad news that the cement industry as a whole faced “insufficient demand, weakening expectations and weakening off-peak season characteristics” along with surpluses and high costs. He said that the cement sector in China saw its profit fall by 50% to US$4.42bn in 2023, its lowest figure since the mid-2000s.
In comparison CNBM Group’s revenue fell by 10% year-on-year to US$29bn and profit by 52% to US$534m. This was principally due to losses from the group’s basic building materials division, the section that makes heavy building materials, including cement. Alongside this, it pushed on with its supply-side structural reforms, implemented staggered peak production and worked on sustainability initiatives. These included preparations for the national carbon emissions trading scheme. Anhui Conch’s results showed that it managed to increase its revenue but its sales volumes of cement dropped and its profits fell by 33% to US$1.48bn. It achieved the boost in revenue by growing its trading business.
Of the smaller companies covered here, only Huaxin Cement managed to grow its revenue in 2023. It appeared to pull this off by growing its concrete and aggregate business domestically whilst growing the business overseas at the same time. The share of its international business grew to 16% in 2023 from 13% in 2022. Major overseas acquisitions in 2023 included Oman Cement and InterCement’s subsidiaries in Mozambique and South Africa. More recently Huaxin Cement has also been reported by local media as the preferential bidder for InterCement’s business in Brazil, although no formal announcement has been made. Of the rest, Tangshan Jidong Cement, CRBMT and China Tianrui all reported declines in sales revenue and profits. Tangshan Jidong Cement did manage to grow its cement sales volumes, but reported heightened competition in the north and north-east of China where most of its plants are located.
With the first quarter results for 2024 on the way soon, the CCA has been bracing itself and the sector for more bad news. It noted that national cement prices during the last week of March 2024 were about 1% lower than during the same week in 2023. Prices were lower in East, Central and South China, although they had increased in Chengdu and Sichuan. The CCA is worried that a price war, either nationally or regionally, will make a bad situation worse. It has called on cement producers to accept that the slowdown of infrastructure development in the country has led to a decline in cement demand and that this is the new normal. Apart from the usual watchwords of ‘self-discipline,’ ‘overcapacity reduction’ and ‘supply-side reforms’ the association has suggested that cement companies look for growth internationally and look to the leadership of associations to help everyone adapt to the new market situation. China’s sales output of cement may be starting to stabilise, but the market has a way to go yet to adapt to the new reality.
China: Anhui Conch Cement's turnover was US$19.6bn in 2023, up by 6.8% year-on-year from 2022 levels. Sales of 42.5 grade cement contributed US$8.46bn (43% of turnover), down by 12% year-on-year. Meanwhile, sales of commercial concrete grew by 25% to US$313m (1.6% of turnover). Overall, the producer’s net profit fell by 33% to US$1.48bn.
Anhui Conch Cement commenced a share buyback programme for up to US$83m-worth of its listed stock in November 2023. At the end of the year, it had repurchased 0.3% of its shares.
Anhui Conch Cement to acquire Conch IT Engineering
18 December 2023China: Anhui Conch Cement has concluded a deal to acquire equipment and software supplier Conch IT Engineering outright. Reuters has reported the value of the deal as US$18m.
Anhui Conch Cement to buy back up to US$82.5m-worth of shares
06 November 2023China: Anhui Conch Cement plans to conduct a share buyback to repurchase up to US$82.5m-worth of its shares. Dow Jones Institutional News has reported that the group will finance the buyback using its internal funds.
China: Anhui Conch has nominated He Chengfa as the chair of its Supervisory Committee in anticipation of the retirement of Wu Xiaoming. His nomination will be submitted to the company’s shareholders at a future extraordinary general meeting. The Supervisory Committee is the monitoring body of the company, accountable to the shareholders at its general meetings.
He Chengfa, aged 57 years, is a senior engineer. He graduated from Wuhan Industrial University specialising in mechanical design and manufacturing and joined Anhui Conch in 1990. Notable positions he has held include that of deputy engineer-in-chief of the Ningguo cement plant, head of the equipment department and deputy general manager of the company. He is currently a deputy general manager, executive deputy officer of the technology centre of Anhui Conch Holdings Company, a director and executive deputy general manager of Santan (Anhui) Institute of Science and Technology and chair of the board of directors of Anhui Conch Construction Materials Design Institute.
Update on China, August 2023
30 August 2023The first half of 2023 has continued to be a tough period for the major China-based cement producers, with revenue and profits down for many. As CNBM put it, the sector is facing production overcapacity, weak demand, high inventory, low prices and declining profits. However, not every company has followed this trend, with a few such as Anhui Conch, Huaxin Cement and Tapai Group managing to hold operating income up and the latter somehow even managing to increase its net profit. The China Cement Association (CCA) in its financial coverage has memorably described these companies that have bucked the national picture as ‘dark horses.’
Graph 1: Sales revenue from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports. Note: For CNBM, cement revenue shown only.
Graph 1 above summarises the situation for a selected group of cement producers. Anhui Conch avoided the fate of CNBM by managing to grow its non-cement revenue, specifically from aggregates and concrete. Yet it too was unble to avoid its net profit falling by 32% year-on-year to US$928m in the first half of 2023 from US$1.37bn in the same period in 2022. Huaxin Cement pulled off the same trick by raising its concrete and aggregates revenue domestically and by growing its overseas revenue. As well as its subsidiaries in Africa, the company also added Oman Cement to its portfolio, completing the acquisition of a majority stake in April 2023. The CCA has a wider roundup of how well the local cement companies have done.
Graph 2: Cement output in China, 2019 to first half of 2023. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China suggests that the cement sector is stagnating rather than actively declining. This is an improvement of sorts from the decline in the first half of 2022, at least. Cement output in the first half of 2023 rose ever so slightly to 980Mt from 979Mt in the same period in 2022. On a rolling annual basis cement output has been gently falling below 1% each month since November 2022, although it rose by nearly 1% in March 2023.
The underlying problem for the Chinese cement sector remains the local real estate market. Developer Country Garden has been the latest company to warn of potential losses – of up to US$7.6bn – in the first half of 2023. It is also currently attempting to ask for more time to repay a bond. This follows the financial problems that Evergrande has faced since 2021. Financial analysts have been monitoring the situation for several years and warning of what a larger collapse in the sector could mean for the wider economy, such as the implications for the banks that hold the debts of the developers. Commentary by Goldman Sachs in August 2023, for example, suggested that the real estate sector needs to manage its inventory on a large scale, with over US$2Tn in liquidations, in order to restructure debts in the property sector. It estimated that the whole situation could reduce the country’s entire gross domestic product (GDP) by 1.5% in 2023, although this would be the trough of the downturn in its view.
Cement producers in China continue to be held hostage by the conditions in the real estate market and the effect this has in turn on demand for building materials. Yet all is not lost, as the examples of the CCA’s ‘dark horses’ show, buoyed by business diversification, overseas expansion or even regional differences. How much longer the rest of the other cement companies can cope in this environment remains to be seen. A less regulated market would certainly expect to see mergers and acquisitions taking place as the financial pressure mounts. China, for now at least, remains steadfastly different. With luck the real estate market may reach its lowest point in 2023 and a recovery could follow.
China: Anhui Conch grew its concrete and aggregate sales in the first half of 2023 to increase overall sales. Its revenue grew by 16% year-on-year to US$8.99bn in the first half of 2023 from US$7.73bn in the same period in 2022. However, its cement and clinker sales fell by 7% to US$6bn from US$6.46bn. Sales revenue fell in all of its domestic sales regions, although they rose overseas. By contrast, sales and trading of other products more than doubled to US$2.7bn. The group’s sales volumes of cement and clinker increased by 3% to 134Mt. Its total profit fell by 32% to US$928m from US$1.37bn.
In its interim results the company said that it had “actively responded to the complicated and difficult industry situation and strived to overcome the impact of unfavourable factors such as declining real estate investment, sluggish market demand and intensified industry competition.”
Uzbekistan: Anhui Conch Cement inaugurated its new 2.3Mt/yr Tashkent cement plant at Kiziloy on 21 August 2023. The plant cost US$320m and will produce 30% of its cement for export. UzReport News has reported that the plant will directly employ 300 people.
Anhui Conch Cement tenders for coal supply bids
22 August 2023China: Anhui Conch Cement is seeking coal suppliers for two of its subsidiaries. The producer has tendered for bids for contracts to supply 410,000t of bituminous coal, high-sulphur coal and lignite to Naiman Banner Hongji Cement and 10,000t of lignite to Chifeng Conch. Online bidding will open on 25 August 2023 and close on 27 August 2023.
Update on Indonesia, July 2023
19 July 2023The government in Indonesia made building new cement capacity harder this week. The new rules are intended to strengthen the local sector in the face of a utilisation rate of only 53%. A moratorium policy and/or new investment arrangements have been placed on new cement plant projects. Instead, companies have been asked to focus on the regions of Papua, West Papua, Maluku and North Maluku instead, where demand for cement is higher than what the local production base can produce. Ignatius Warsito, the Director General of the Chemical, Pharmaceutical and Textile Industry at the Ministry of Industry, said that the new rules would be reconsidered once the capacity utilisation rate reaches 85%.
Other measures the government is also looking at include increasing exports of cement, changing regulations related to the coal Public Service Agency (BLU) and improving overland transport. On that last point the authorities and the cement producers are looking at how logistics costs can avoid rising in the face of the impending Zero Over Dimension Over Load (ODOL) policy. Proposals the sector has submitted include implementing a multi-axle policy for trucks and improving the quality of certain roads to allow for higher capacity vehicles.
As one of the government’s focus areas - coal - suggests, fuel prices have been a headache for the cement sector in recent years. Warsito noted that international coal prices started to rise in late 2020. This was likely due to the logistical mess that the coronavirus pandemic caused to the global economy. Higher coal prices caused a “significant” effect on the cement industry through both higher production costs and restrictions on supplies. One irony to note here is that Indonesia is one of the world’s leading coal producers. Donny Arsal, the head of Semen Indonesia, told the government in 2022 that the war in Ukraine had enticed local coal companies to export more coal due to the rising international price. At this time he lobbied the administration to use its local domestic market obligation (DMO) subsidy to better serve the cement sector by giving it more coal at a fixed price.
Graph 1: Cement demand and capacity in Indonesia. Source: Semen Indonesia and Indonesia Cement Association.
Overcapacity has been a recurring feature of the Indonesian cement market since at least the 1990s as the demand and capacity have grown sometimes out of step. The capacity utilisation rate reached 90% in the early 1990s only to fall to 50% by the end of that decade due to the Asian financial crisis. More recently Holcim left the market in 2019 when it sold its business to the Semen Indonesia. The state-owned company consolidated more than half of the country’s cement production capacity at the time. According to its data for the first quarter of 2023 it has a 51% market share and a 46% production capacity share. It also said that 92% of local demand was catered for from four of the country’s 14 producers, namely: Semen Indonesia; Indocement; Conch; and Merah Putih.
A recent study by the Jakarta Post newspaper suggested that after a poor first half in 2023, cement demand was expected to rebound and create modest overall annual growth by the end of the year. The key reasons for this outlook are increased government infrastructure spending, ongoing work on the new capital city Nusantara and anticipated price stability. The new city project, for example, is expected to require 1.6Mt of cement in the 2022 - 2024 period. Risk factors, of course, abound such as a global economic slowdown, financial problems at some of the government-owned construction companies like Waskita Karya and new capacity. A new 8Mt/yr (!) plant owned by local company Kobexindo and China-based Honshi Cement, for instance, is scheduled to start operation in the second half of 2023 in East Kalimantan. Even though the government says that the new unit will export 90% of its production, it will place pressure on other existing sites hoping to increase exports.
The country’s largest cement producer being majority owned by the government is a pertinent feature here given that the same government has also effectively banned new capacity. Semen Indonesia’s earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) have fallen each year consecutively since 2020. As mentioned above overcapacity has long been present in the local sector and recent events have made it worse. Yet, the companies that are likely to benefit the most from a block on newer, competitive cement plants are likely to be the established players. That said, though, with the utilisation just above 50% and new projects like the Kobexindo-Honshi plant on the way, the government likely feels it has to take some form of action. Other tools at its disposal include a national carbon exchange set to launch in September 2023. Power companies will participate from the start with cement producers anticipated to follow at a later stage. Despite the uncertain short-to-medium term outlook the cement sector in Indonesia remains one of the largest in the world with plenty of business to be done. Denmark-based FLSmidth was clearly mindful of this when it opened a new office in Jakarta in April 2023.