Displaying items by tag: Ukraine
Ukraine: Data from Ukrcement, the Ukrainian Cement Association, show that cement consumption grew by 17% from 4.6Mt in 2022 to 5.4Mt in 2023. Pavlo Kachur, the head of Ukrcement, said that consumption is expected to continue growing modestly in 2024, according to Interfax-Ukraine. He added that the country exported 1.24Mt of cement in 2023.
Before Russia invaded the country in 2022 it reported consumption of 10.5Mt in 2021. It has a production capacity of 13.6Mt/yr. Despite the ongoing war the local cement sector says it is considering plans to meet future market demand such as repairing plants in Balakliya and Kramatorsk and even, potentially, building new production lines.
Poland: The Association of Polish Cement Producers has expressed increasing concern over quadrupled year-on-year growth in cement imports from Ukraine, to 330,000t in 2023.
Zbigniew Pilch, the head of the association, highlighted the contrasting rise in imports and 12% fall in domestic production, to 16.6Mt. He said “The scale of imports from Ukraine is growing almost every month, reaching nearly 50% of total imports in January 2024. These volumes are deeply concerning.”
A primary issue raised by the association is the difference in environmental regulations faced by Ukrainian and Polish cement producers. The association argues that Ukrainian producers are not subjected to as rigorous climate policies as Polish producers, leading to an uneven playing field. Additionally, the localised nature of the cement market means eastern Polish producers are particularly affected by the ‘influx’ of Ukrainian cement.
Ukraine: The Ukrainian government has approved the construction of the €35.6m Galicia building materials complex in Kalush, Ivano-Frankivsk Region. The complex will include a cement plant. Business World News has reported that the government expects the Galicia complex to generate 1000 new jobs.
Buzzi grows sales in 2023
12 February 2024Italy: Buzzi recorded consolidated sales of Euro4.32bn in 2023, up by 8.1% from Euro4.32bn in 2022. This came in spite of a 7% year-on-year drop in the company’s cement sales volumes, to 26.3Mt. In its domestic market of Italy, Buzzi raised its sales by 13% to Euro818m. In the US, sales grew by 9.5% to Euro1.74bn, in Mexico by 33% to Euro1.03bn, in Germany by 9.2% to Euro872m, in the Czech Republic and Slovakia by 1.8% to Euro205m, in Poland by 11% to Euro157m and in Ukraine by 43% to Euro85.6m. On the other hand, Buzzi’s sales fell by 5.6% in Luxembourg and the Netherlands, to Euro214m, by 2% in Russia to Euro285m, and by 1.6% in Brazil to Euro394m.
The company said “The increasingly evident effects of monetary restriction, the worsening of consumer and business confidence, and the uncertainties dictated by the growing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to weigh on the international economic framework. In fact, in the last part of 2023, global economic activity weakened further, with international trade contracting in the third quarter.”
Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine investigates CRH’s acquisition of Buzzi Unicem's local business
24 January 2024Ukraine: The Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine (AMCU) has launched an investigation into Ireland-based CRH's acquisition of certain Central-Eastern European assets of Italy-based Buzzi Unicem. The assets in question include two Ukrainian cement plants. The AMCU will assess the potential impacts of the consolidation on the cement market in Ukraine. The parties concluded the deal in June 2023, and expected to conclude it in September 2024. The AMCU first rejected CRH's application to it in September 2023, but subsequently agreed to reopen its examination of the deal in October 2023.
Belarus: The US government sanctioned the management company of Belarusian Cement Company on 6 December 2023. PrimePress News has reported that 10 other Belarus-based companies and eight individuals were also added to the US sanctions list. This is the latest group of additions since the US and its allies began sanctioning Belarusian entities in connection to election rigging, human rights abuses and complicity in the on-going Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Ukraine suspends anti-dumping duty on Moldovan cement
09 October 2023Moldova: The Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalisation has announced that Ukraine will cancel an existing anti-dumping duty on imports of Moldovan cement until 31 December 2023. Ukraine announced the move following constructive discussions held during a meeting of the co-chairs of the Moldovan-Ukrainian intergovernmental commission on trade and economic cooperation held in Odesa, according to Interfax-Ukraine.
Moldovan Minister of Economic Development and Digitalisation Vadim Humene insisted that Ukraine cancel the anti-dumping duty so that Moldova did not have to ‘initiate trade defence processes’ regarding products that Moldova imports from Ukraine.
In addition to the temporary removal of the anti-dumping duty, the two countries expressed their readiness to help remove barriers to trade and simplify border controls to optimise the flow of goods, review environmental duties and ensure transparent, uniform application of legislation by both countries.
CBAM: the Godzilla of carbon tariffs goes live
04 October 2023The European Union (EU) carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) started its transitional phase this week ahead of the full adoption of the scheme in 2026. Importers of goods with a high carbon cost, including cement, will have to report the direct and indirect CO2 emissions associated with production. No financial penalty will be incurred during the transition period, but from 2026 onwards importers will have to start buying certificates at the EU emissions trading scheme (ETS) price. However, even the full version of the CBAM will be phased in with the cost of embedded emissions increased gradually from 2026 to 2034. Readers can catch up on the CBAM guidance for importers here.
Graph 1: Sources of cement and clinker imports to the EU in H1 2023. Source: Eurostat/Cembureau.
Global Cement Weekly has covered the EU CBAM frequently, but it is worth remembering which countries are most likely to be affected. According to data from Eurostat and Cembureau, the EU imported just over 10Mt of cement and clinker in 2022. This compares to around 2.5Mt in 2016. Graph 1 (above) is even more instructive, as it shows where the cement and clinker came from in the first half of 2023. Most of it was manufactured in countries on the periphery of the EU with, roughly, a third from Türkiye and a third from North Africa. These are the countries with the most to lose from the CBAM.
Graph 2: CO2 emissions intensity for cement exports. Green signifies cleaner than the EU average, Red signifies more carbon intensive than the EU average. Source: World Bank.
Türkiye is the most exposed. Data from Türkçimento shows that it exported 3.4Mt of cement and clinker into the EU in 2022 or 13% of its total exports. Bulgaria, Italy and Romania were the main destinations for cement. Belgium, Spain and France were the main targets for clinker. Notably, more clinker than cement was exported to the EU. For context, in total Türkiye exported 18.5Mt and 8.5Mt of cement and clinker respectively in 2022. The US was the leading destination for Turkish cement at 9.7Mt and Ivory Coast for clinker at 1.3Mt. Türkiye seems set to tackle the problem that CBAM poses for its iron and cement sectors by introducing its own emissions trading scheme. One view expressed has been that if the country has to pay for its carbon emissions it would much rather pocket the money domestically than see it go to a foreign entity. A relative CBAM Exposure Index put together by the World Bank by June 2023 suggested that Türkiye would actually benefit slightly in comparison to some of its cement exporting rivals as the CO2 emissions intensity of its cement exports was 4.85kg CO2eq/US$. This study’s pivot point was 4.97kg CO2eq/US$, putting Türkiye just across the line for increased competitiveness.
Cement export data for Algeria is harder to find but state-owned Groupe des Ciments d'Algérie (GICA) has been regularly issuing bulletins since 2018 detailing its cement exports. It previously had an export target of 2Mt for 2023 with destinations in Africa, Europe and South and Central America. Looking more widely, research by the African Climate Foundation (ACF) and the Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa at the London School of Economics and Political Science estimated that 12% of Africa’s cement exports ended up in the EU. It reckoned that the introduction of the CBAM and an EU ETS price of Euro87/t would reduce total African exports of cement to the EU by 3 - 5% if the EU ended its ETS free allowance. The World Bank CBAM Exposure study found that Egypt and Morocco were likely to become more competitive for cement exports but Tunisia less so. Unfortunately this analysis did not cover Algeria.
The third largest individual source of imports into the EU in the first half of 2023 was Ukraine. Research from the Kiev School of Economics estimated that the start of the CBAM would reduce the export volume of cement to the EU by 2 - 5%/yr. The World Bank study found that Ukraine would become less competitive as the emissions intensity of its cement exports was 7.62kg CO2eq/US$. This would be compounded by the fact that more than 90% of the country’s cement exports ended up in the EU. However, since the EU backed the country when Russia invaded in early 2022, imposing the CBAM on exports has acquired geopolitical consequences. There has been lobbying on this issue from various sources, so this situation might be one to watch to gain a sense of how the EU might react when its sustainability aims clash with its political imperatives.
One major risk for the cement exporting countries soon to be affected by the CBAM is if other countries start to do the same in a domino effect before the exporters introduce their own carbon pricing schemes. Türkiye is clearly alert to this. Other countries are thinking the same way. The US, for example, has had senators discuss the merits of setting up its own version. It is also wise to using sustainability legislation to further its own economic ends as the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022 showed. At the moment the US needs lots of cement imports but were this to change then the case to enact a US CBAM might grow.
Finally, one should never discount the sheer amount of bureaucracy involved when dealing with the EU. The UK discovered this when it voted to leave the EU and now the rest of the world gets to enjoy it too! Christian Alexander Müller of Evonik told the Die Welt newspaper this week that Brussels had created a bureaucratic ‘Godzilla.' Another commentator noted that the European Commission only published its guidance document for importers on CBAM in mid-August 2023 and that helping export partners would be like teaching them Latin in just a few weeks. Bona fortuna!
Ukraine raises eight-month cement production so far in 2023
20 September 2023Ukraine: Cement companies produced 4.75Mt of cement during the first eight months of 2023, up by 30% year-on-year from eight-month 2022 levels. Interfax-Ukraine News has reported that producers are operating at 60% production capacity.
Liudmyla Kripka, executive director of the Ukrainian cement association, Ukrcement, said “If we compare it with last year, when the country’s economy was in shock from Russia’s treacherous attack on Ukraine and the start of the full-scale war, the situation has improved somewhat. Cement production in the first half of 2023 grew by 26%, and in the first eight months by 30%, compared to last year.” Kripka added “We are still far from the indicators of 2021, but the dynamics are encouraging. Once there was a prospect, work for the future began. Cement producers, even in war conditions, are investing in Ukraine and the economic restoration of the regions. This expands the production capacity of the industry as a whole and contributes to the creation of new jobs.”
New emissions taxes hit Hungary’s cement industry
23 August 2023The Hungarian government recently enacted Emergency Decree 320/2023, taxing all CO2 emissions from the country’s 40 or so largest industrial enterprises. The government used emergency powers to set up a new taxation scheme, which undercuts existing free allowances under the EU emissions trading scheme (ETS). The scheme additionally penalises the trade in ETS credits. Cement producers announced that the new regulations will make it impossible for them to keep operating.1
With regard to Hungary’s six active cement plants, the scheme comprises:
1 – A Euro20/t tax on CO2 emissions, effective retroactively from 1 January 2023, payable by any large enterprise that uses EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) free allowances to cover the majority of its CO2 emissions. Plants that decrease their production, or that carry on non-CO2-emitting activities at over 10% of their operations, will pay a higher rate of Euro40/t of CO2.
2 – A 10% transaction fee for the sale of free allocations under the EU ETS, payable to the Hungarian Climate Protection Authority.
Less than three years ahead of full implementation of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), the Hungarian government has seemingly moved unilaterally against cement production – this in a country surrounded by seven other cement-producing countries. Multiple foreign cement producers connected to the major market of Budapest by rail, river and road will be watching developments with interest. These include CRH, which, besides two smaller plants inside Hungary, operates the 800,000t/yr Cementáreň Turňa nad Bodvou plant, immediately over the border in Slovakia.
This comes at a time when the domestic cement industry is facing historically high costs and low demand, with a 30% year-on-year decline in construction activity in July 2023, following double-digit inflation throughout 2022 and the first half of 2023.
Catastrophising may be a common symptom of environmental regulation in industry associations, but one can understand on this occasion. The Hungarian cement and lime industry association, CeMBeton, backed its members’ gloomy announcement about their future with an estimate for extra annual taxes of ‘several billion forints’ (1bn forint = US$2.84m), in a statement following the decree. Assuming annual CO2 emissions of 565kg/t across its 5.4Mt/yr cement capacity, the sector might expect to pay US$61m/yr in CO2 rates alone.2, 3 According to analyst ClearBlue, the government will raise additional tax revenues worth US$278m/yr across all of the 40 aforementioned heavy emitters in Hungary.4
It may seem surprising that CeMBeton did not even draw up a projected tax bill during consultations over the new tax scheme – but, in fact, no such consultations took place. In its most recent statement, the association said “We do not know the government’s intentions.” Outside of official releases, Hungary’s cement producers have not always been so reserved about the government’s perceived aim.
Global Cement reported in April 2023 that the Hungarian government was allegedly interfering in the cement sector to make producers sell up – as per accusations by an anonymous industry executive.5 There is arguably a course of action on the government’s part which, more or less, appears consistent with this aim:
October 2020 – The Hungarian Competition Authority (GVH) starts competition supervision proceedings against CRH, Duna-Dráva Cement and Lafarge Cement Magyarország.
July 2021 – Emergency Decree 2021/404 imposes a 90% tax on producers’ ‘excess’ profits, based on threshold cement sales revenues of Euro56/t. Additionally, producers must report their exports.
September 2021 – GVH finds insufficient evidence to support the initiation of competition supervisory proceedings in the cement industry.
January 2023 – (Retroactive) entry into force of CO2 emissions tax.
May 2023 – The government of Hungary reportedly initiates negotiations to acquire Duna Dráva Cement and Holcim Magyarország, according to the Hungarian builders’ association, National Professional Association of Construction Contractors (ÉVOSZ). Duna Dráva Cement owners Heidelberg Materials and Schwenk Zement state that they have entered into no such negotiations, while Holcim declines to comment.
July 2023 – The Act on Hungarian Architecture lets the government dictate producers' volumes and prices and require them to supply cement to National Building Materials Stores (a proposed state-owned construction materials retail monopoly).6 Additionally, the government gains a right of first refusal over the divestment of any asset by the cement industry’s foreign owners.
20 July 2023 – The government enacts Emergency Decree 320/2023. ETS transaction fees enter into force.
The government can now expect a legal challenge to its latest move. CeMBeton’s first ally may be the font of all emissions legislation – the EU itself. Within the EU ETS framework, tax rates are down to member states to determine. However, the introduction of a transaction fee may constitute an illegal restriction to free allowances, OPIS News has reported. The association has also indicated its readiness to mount a constitutional challenge, specifically with regard to the legislative retrofit involved in the CO2 emissions tax. The Fundamental Law of Hungary does not generally permit legislation to apply retroactively, though how courts will balance this consideration against the rights of the government is untested.
The government amended the constitution to provide for new emergency powers, and subsequently adopted them in May 2022, in response to the ‘state of danger’ created by Russia’s war in Ukraine – though its actions on the international stage suggest careful neutrality, if not ambivalence. At home, the war has brought a consolidation of the government’s control over various areas of life, including the economy, according to Human Rights Watch.7
Climate protestors around the world might be glad to see governments wield emergency powers against their own heavy industries. In Hungary, however, the wider sustainability goals are not yet clear with regard to a policy that seems, at least partly, politically motivated.
References
1. CeMBeton, Sajtónyilatkozat, 21 August 2023, https://www.cembeton.hu/hirlevel/2023-08-21/202308-mozgalmas-osz-ele-nezunk/116/sajtonyilatkozat/668
2. Heidelberg Materials, ‘Energy and climate protection,’ 2022, https://www.heidelbergmaterials.com/en/energy-and-climate-protection
3. Global Cement, Global Cement Directory 2023, https://www.globalcement.com/directory
4. OPIS News, ‘Hungary's New Carbon Tax Unlikely to Set EU Precedent, Say Analysts,’ 16 August 2023
5. Global Cement, 'Update on Hungary,' April 2023, https://www.globalcement.com/news/item/15572-update-on-hungary-april-2023#:~:text=Heidelberg%20Materials'%20subsidiary%20Duna%2DDr%C3%A1va,the%20country's%20active%20national%20capacity.
6. Daily News Hungary, ‘Hungarian government’s new nationalising plan could violate EU law,’ 27 February 2023, https://dailynewshungary.com/hungarian-govts-new-nationalizing-plan-could-violate-eu-law/
7. Human Rights Watch, ‘Hungary’s New 'State of Danger',’ 8 June 2022, https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/06/08/hungarys-new-state-danger