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The battle of the cement billionaires
08 June 2022We return to India to discuss a potential fight that may be brewing in the cement sector. Competition between UltraTech Cement and Adani Group started when the latter won the race to buy Holcim’s cement assets in the country in May 2022. However, the rivalry stepped up a notch this week when UltraTech Cement responded by approving a US$1.7bn investment for expansion.
The leading Indian producer announced that it was committing the funds towards increasing its cement production capacity by 22.6Mt/yr. This will include a mixture of expansions to existing sites and building new plants such as new integrated units, new grinding units and new terminals. UltraTech Cement currently has a previous round of expansion that is set to be completed by the end of the 2023 financial year. Commercial production at the newly announced projects is forecast to start by the end of the 2025 financial year. The company finished off by saying that the upgrade projects would maintain its position as the third largest cement producer outside of China, with its total production capacity rising to 159Mt/yr.
Unusually for these kinds of press releases though, UltraTech Cement made of point of doing the calculation for any readers who might want to know how much this new capacity might cost. It is US$76/t. Adani Group didn’t do this when it said it had agreed to buy Ambuja Cements and ACC from Holcim but, unsurprisingly, it cost more, at least US$94/t based on the cash figure Holcim released for the deal. Note that Adani Group has valued the acquisition at US$10.5bn, which would put the capacity cost up to US$150/t. Other zingers in the press release included Kumar Mangalam Birla’s quote that his company held, “... a deep and nuanced understanding of the market dynamics of the cement industry.” Both of these additions to the statement suggest that UltraTech Cement is making a point about its new competitor.
Bloomberg has framed the actions of UltraTech Cement and Adani Group in the cement sector as a brewing corporate battle between old and new money. Both Kumar Mangalam Birla, chair of Aditya Birla Group - the owner of UltraTech Cement, and Gautam Adani were in the top 10 of the Forbes list of the richest people in India in 2021. Birla comes from inherited wealth, although he has undeniably expanded UltraTech Cement greatly during his tenure as chair. Adani is self-made. Cement is just part of the empires of both men but one risk to UltraTech Cement is just how fast an expansion-driven competitor with concerns in power generation and logistics might decide to try to shake up the cement sector.
It is interesting at this early stage to glimpse part of the potential strategies both cement companies may be employing. Adani Group is in the process of buying its way into the cement sector at a relatively high price for capacity. UltraTech Cement is responding by building new capacity at a lower price. Research by Kotak Institutional Equities cited in the Bloomberg article suggests that Adani Group could increase its 70Mt/yr capacity up to 100Mt/yr at US$80 – 90/t. This would cost up to around US$2.5bn but it’s not impossible. Kotak also reckons UltraTech Cement can eke out around US$3 – 4/t more in earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) compared to the existing Ambuja Cements and ACC assets. Adani Group might be able to cut this gap down through creating synergies by further merging the two companies.
This adds to the feeling that UltraTech Cement is in a stronger position as the incumbent market leader. Yet risks abound in the current inflationary conditions and even less is certain if Adani Group is prepared to invest heavily enough. After all, UltraTech Cement had a production capacity of only 23Mt/yr in 2010. Less than a decade later it became India’s largest cement producer. It is now Adani Group’s next move in the battle of the cement billionaires.
Russia: A study commissioned by the National Association of Manufacturers of Building Materials and the Construction Industry (NOPSM), SM PRO and Soyuzcement, the national cement manufacturing union, has found that 80% of components required for repairs and upgrades to cement plants in Russia are manufactured abroad. The research was intended to assess the sector’s requirement for foreign equipment and to determine the prospects for import substitution. The results of the survey were presented in late May 2022.
Anton Solon, the executive chair of NOPSM, noted that Russian cement sector holds a ‘critical’ dependence on imported equipment. He said that domestic analogues were either ‘significantly’ inferior to imports or simply not available. The main equipment affected included separators, burners, drives, compressors and grinding mills. Parts for packaging lines, some types of quarry equipment, grinding media, refractories, additives and linings were also negatively affected. However, he did point out that low-efficiency and large-sized gas cleaning plants (including bag and electrostatic precipitators) were produced domestically. Vyacheslav Shmatov, the chairman of Soyuzcement, called for the development of local engineering products to remedy the situation.
Golden Bay upgrading Wellington cement terminal
08 June 2022New Zealand: Golden Bay is spending US$6m on an upgrade to its Wellington cement terminal. The project will increased storage capacity, reconfigure the site for better traffic management, add new office facilities and upgrade ship discharge lines to reduce load times. Greater automation is also intended, as well as new branding for the site.
Nick Traber, Fletcher Building’s chief executive for concrete said, “Our Golden Bay Terminal has served Wellington well for many decades and has contributed to some of the region’s biggest infrastructure projects along with countless houses, driveways and other developments. The upgrade is a key part of our strategy to remove bottlenecks in our operations to drive growth and reduce costs, as well as increase the resilience of our supply chain using all modes of transport. It’s a demonstration of our commitment to local manufacturing as New Zealand's only and lowest carbon cement producer.”
Libya: The state-owned Ahlia Cement Company has launched a tender for the upgrade and restart of its lime plant at Souq Al-Khamis. It wants to run the restart as a joint-venture, according to the Libya Herald newspaper. The tender is for the renovation, operation and the marketing of the lime factory output for a renewable 10-year period. Al-Ahlia has invited interested parties to arrange for a site visit and collect the specifications sheet. The deadline for receiving tenders is 14 July 2022.
Zimbabwe: Germany-based Gebr. Pfeiffer says that a new MVR 3070 C-4 mill for cement grinding is due to be commissioned at Holcim Zimbabwe’s integrated plant at Manresa near Harare. The order was handled by the Chinese contractor CBMI.
The roof at the plant collapsed over a cement mill in October 2021 leading to a reduction in production volumes at the plant. The mills were restarted in February 2022 but one of the one of the existing cement ball mills was decommissioned. This mill is being replaced by the new vertical roller mill supplied by Gebr. Pfeiffer. It is expected to double the plant’s cement production capacity after it is commissioned in the second quarter of 2022.
Saudi Arabia: Southern Province Cement has completed technical studies and commenced construction of a new 5000t/day line at its Jazan cement plant. The company will also build the infrastructure for another 5000t/day line at the site. Reuters new has reported that, together, the lines will replace the plant’s existing production lines.
Zimbabwe: Lafarge Zimbabwe’s cement volumes fell by 55% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022. The company restarted grinding units at its Manresa grinding plant in February 2022 following a roof collapse in October 2021. In a trading update, Lafarge Zimbabwe said that the disruption impacted its profit in the quarter. The producer took the opportunity to decommission one of its ball mills for replacement with a new vertical roller mill in mid-2022.
Chief executive officer Geoffrey Ndugwa said “The company is confident that volumes will recover and grow as the availability of cement stabilises, especially after the new vertical roller mill start-up in the second quarter of 2022.”
US: Drake Cement & Materials has inaugurated a new finish mill at its integrated plant at Paulden in Arizona. Chief executive officer Enrique Rozas and Ricardo Rizo Patron, the chairman of parent company Skanon Investments, attended the event. Drake Cement & Materials is a subsidiary of Peru-based UNACEM.
Uzbekistan: United Cement Group (UCG) has successfully completed the modernisation of the grinding units at its Kuvasay cement plant in Fergana. The work consisted of installation of protective armour on the inner surface of mill drums and mill ends and the replacement of bar partitions between chambers with sectional partitions. This increased the total mass of the cylpebs to 43t from 39t and improved the mills’ efficiency. UCG also upgraded the units’ dust removal equipment, replacing their original electrostatic precipitators with RIF–0500–03 K and FRKI 360 bag filters. The group carried out the modernisation in collaboration with the Uzsanoatkurilishmateriallari Association and the Fergana Regional Committee for Environmental Safety.
Vietnamese cement capacity to rise by 8% in 2022
20 May 2022Vietnam: Three new integrated cement lines are expected to raise Vietnam’s total installed cement capacity by 8% to 115.4Mt/yr in 2022, from 106.6Mt/yr at the beginning of the year. VNDirect Securities has calculated that the upcoming lines – Dai Duong 1, Long Thanh and Xuan Thanh 3 – have a total capacity of 8.8Mt/yr. They are situated in Northern Vietnam’s Ha Nam Province and Central Vietnam’s Thanh Hoa Province, both of which already have cement overcapacity.
Viet Nam News has reported that Vietnam exported 4.31Mt of cement and clinker in April 2022, down by 7.6% month-on-month. The products’ total value was US$171m, down by 2.9% month-on-month.