Displaying items by tag: War
Update on Ukraine, May 2024
15 May 2024Before Russia invaded mainland Ukraine on 24 February 2023, many predicted that full-scale conflict would be averted. When the attack began, Russian President Vladimir Putin himself expected a 10-day war, according to think tank RUSI.1 15 May 2024 marks two years, two months and three weeks of fighting, with no end in sight.
Ukrcement, the Ukrainian cement association, recently published its cement market data for 2023, the first full year of the war. The data showed domestic cement consumption of 5.4Mt, up by 17% year-on-year from 4.6Mt in 2022, but down by 49% from pre-war levels of 10.6Mt in 2021. In 2023, Ukraine’s 14.8Mt/yr production capacity was 2.7 times greater than its consumption, compared to 1.4 times in 2021. Of Ukraine’s nine cement plants, one (the 1.8Mt/yr Amwrossijiwka plant in Donetsk Oblast) now lies behind Russian lines. Four others sit within 300km of the front line in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. Among these, the 4.4Mt/yr Balakliia plant in Kharkiv Oblast, the largest in the country, first fell to the Russians, but was subsequently liberated in September 2022.
Before the war, Ukrcement’s members held a 95% share in the local cement market. Their only competitors were Turkish cement exporters across the Black Sea, after the Ukrainian Interdepartmental Commission on International Trade successfully implemented anti-dumping duties against cement from Moldova and now-sanctioned Belarus and Russia in 2019. Since then, Turkish cement, has also become subject to tariffs of 33 – 51% upon entry into Ukraine until September 2026. The relative shortfall in consumption has led Ukraine’s cement producers to lean on their own export markets. They increased their exports by 33% year-on-year to 1.24Mt in 2023, 330,000t (27%) of it to neighbouring Poland.
Russia’s invasion has made 3.5m Ukrainians homeless and put the homes of 2.4m more in need of repair. In a report published in Ukrainian, the US Agency for International Development (USAID) set out its three-year rebuilding plan for the country. USAID projects an investment cost of €451bn, with the ‘main task’ besides homebuilding being to increase the share of industrial production in the economy. Ukraine is 90% equipped to produce all building materials required under the plan. Their production, in turn, will create or maintain 100,000 jobs and US$6.5bn in tax revenues. Reconstruction will also involve the Ukrainian cement industry returning to close to full capacity utilisation, producing 15 – 16Mt/yr of cement.
CRH, an established local player of 25 years, looks best set to claim a share of the proceeds. Stepping down an order of magnitude from billions to millions, Global Cement recently reported CRH’s total investments in Ukraine to date as €465m. Since war broke out, the company has more than tripled its rate of investment, to €74.5m. The Ireland-based group is in the protracted administrative process of acquiring the Ukrainian business of Italy-based Buzzi. If successful, the deal will raise its Ukrainian capacity by 56%, to 8.4Mt/yr – 57% of national capacity. This unusual clumping of ownership may be made possible by the participation of European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in partly acquiring the assets, as per a mandate letter signed with CRH in 2023.
Leading Ukrainian cement buyer Kovalska Industrial-Construction Group bemoaned the anticipated increase in market concentration. On the one hand, this sounds like a classic tiff between cement producers and users with shallow pockets. On the other hand, an antebellum allegation of cement industry cartelisation should give us pause for thought. Non-governmental organisation The Antitrust League previously reported Ukraine’s four cement producers to the government’s Anti-Monopoly Committee for alleged anticompetitive behavior. This was in September 2021, when Ukraine was barely out of lockdown, let alone up in arms. With all that has happened since, it may seem almost ancient history, yet the players are the same, CRH and Buzzi among them.
Ukrcement and its members have secured favourable protections from the Trade Commission, and, for whatever reasons, evaded the inconvenience of investigation by the Anti-Monopoly Committee – a state of affairs over which the Antitrust League called the committee ‘very weak.’ The league says that producers previously raised prices by 35 – 50% in the three years up to 2021. In planning a fair and equitable reconstruction, Ukrainians might reasonably seek assurance that this will not happen again.
All these discussions are subject to a time-based uncertainty: the end of the war in Ukraine. A second question is where the finances might come from. The EU approved funding for €17bn in grants and €33bn in loans for Ukraine on 14 May 2024. Meanwhile, countries including the UK have enacted legislation to ensure Russia settles the cost of the conflict at war’s end. If Ukraine achieves its military aims, then the finances may flow from the same direction as did the armaments that demolished Ukrainian infrastructure in the first place.
The first piece of Ukraine annexed by Russia was Crimea in February 2014, making the invasion over a decade old. Against such a weight of tragedy, the country cannot lose sight of the coming restoration work, and of the need to ensure that it best serve Ukrainians.
Ukraine: The cost to rebuild Ukraine post-war is projected at US$487bn, according to a report commissioned by the United States Agency for International Development. The report states that to support the reconstruction, Ukraine must produce 15-16Mt/yr of cement for three years, a significant increase from current capacities. Protectionist measures in place since 2019 have restricted cement imports and a decline in production and a shrinking market could lead to an increase in construction costs, according to the Kyiv Independent.
Amid these projections, CRH, which operates three plants in Ukraine, announced in summer 2023 that it aims to purchase two more from Buzzi's subsidiary Dyckerhoff. This deal is valued at €100m, with the company stressing the importance of its investments in Ukrainian cement plants to boost the country’s domestic production to 15Mt/yr, according to Forbes Ukraine. The deal is reportedly under scrutiny by Ukraine's Anti-Monopoly Committee due to market concentration concerns, which could drive up cement prices and overall reconstruction costs.
Serhiy Pylypenko, CEO of the Ukrainian building supplies firm Kovalska, Ukraine’s largest cement user, said “We need more players and to diversify the market instead of making it more compact because the competition is very weak. Market concentration allows uncontrolled pricing and the cost of construction and the cost of recovery to skyrocket."
Buzzi grows sales in 2023
12 February 2024Italy: Buzzi recorded consolidated sales of Euro4.32bn in 2023, up by 8.1% from Euro4.32bn in 2022. This came in spite of a 7% year-on-year drop in the company’s cement sales volumes, to 26.3Mt. In its domestic market of Italy, Buzzi raised its sales by 13% to Euro818m. In the US, sales grew by 9.5% to Euro1.74bn, in Mexico by 33% to Euro1.03bn, in Germany by 9.2% to Euro872m, in the Czech Republic and Slovakia by 1.8% to Euro205m, in Poland by 11% to Euro157m and in Ukraine by 43% to Euro85.6m. On the other hand, Buzzi’s sales fell by 5.6% in Luxembourg and the Netherlands, to Euro214m, by 2% in Russia to Euro285m, and by 1.6% in Brazil to Euro394m.
The company said “The increasingly evident effects of monetary restriction, the worsening of consumer and business confidence, and the uncertainties dictated by the growing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to weigh on the international economic framework. In fact, in the last part of 2023, global economic activity weakened further, with international trade contracting in the third quarter.”
As Lafarge Cement Syria's Jalabiyeh cement plant burns again, survivors of ISIS still await justice
17 January 2024This year will mark the 10th anniversary of the Yazidi genocide in Sinjar, Iraq. Beginning on the night of 2 - 3 August 2014, ISIS displaced the entire Yazidi population from its homeland, amid a campaign of abductions and killings that claimed 12,000 victims.1 A striking detail of this and other crimes of the self-proclaimed caliphate is the proximity of a Western corporate actor: cement producer Lafarge, whose subsidiary Lafarge Cement Syria operated the Jalabiyeh cement plant in neighbouring northern Syria. On-going investigations have since helped uncover what may amount to complicity on the part of Lafarge and Lafarge Cement Syria in the form of payments dating back to August 2013.2
In a week that began with the abandoned Jalabiyeh cement plant ablaze following a drone strike,3 Lafarge learned that it will face trial in France over its alleged complicity in crimes against humanity committed by ISIS.4 On 16 January 2024, the French Court of Cassation upheld Lafarge and Lafarge Cement Syrias' indictments on the charge. Also reportedly indicted are (all former) Lafarge CEOs Bruno Lafont and Eric Olsen, vice president Christian Herrault and security director Jean-Claude Veillard and Lafarge Cement Syria CEOs Bruno Pescheux and Frédéric Jolibois, along with an intermediary and a Jordan-based risk management consultant.5, 6 The collaboration in question includes monthly payments to ISIS and other armed groups worth US$15.5m, a lower French court found in May 2022. It may be more than another 20 months before the thorny mass of issues to be considered by the court resolves itself in convictions, or cleared names.
Another front in Lafarge and Lafarge Cement Syria's legal battle over what happened in Syria is the US civil court system. Activist and survivor Nadia Murad and 426 other Yazidis have filed an Anti-Terrorism Act claim for damages, based on the companies' previous guilty plea to the US Department of Justice to conspiracy to the tune of US$5.92m in October 2022. Murad and fellow claimants allege ‘far higher’ total payments, pointing to correspondence between Lafarge Cement Syria and its intermediary that references ‘[sic] ten millions that we pay directly to them, i.e. to ISIS.’ The DoJ estimates the total value of the conspiracy for all parties at US$80.5m.
On 6 August 2014 (the fourth day of the Yazidi genocide), Lafarge and Lafarge Cement Syria signalled their agreement to enter into a new long-term agreement to share their revenues with ISIS. On 15 August 2014, the UN Security Council issued Resolution 2170 condemning 'any engagement in direct or indirect trade' with the organisation.7 Lafarge and Lafarge Cement Syria allegedly concluded the revenue-sharing agreement, under new terms more beneficial to ISIS, on that same day.
Lafarge Cement Syria finally evacuated the Jalabiyeh cement plant in September 2014, whereupon ISIS added it to its own five-plant international cement network, with sales worth US$583m/yr. The US-led Coalition bombed the site in October 2019 and it was subsequently occupied by Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) forces. The strike on 14 January 2024 was part of a drone campaign by Turkish forces against Kurdish positions that the invaders say destroyed 23 targets.
It is conceivable that Turkish armed forces also had personal reasons for destroying this monument to Lafarge’s former presence in the region: on Lafarge’s stipulation, ISIS implemented a duty on Turkish cement entering its area of control, ostensibly charged at US$150/truck. As anyone familiar with the Turkish cement sector knows, one of the major investors in the industry happens to be the country’s military pension fund.
For the 400,000 Yazidis who have survived, the tragedy that began in August 2014 will not end soon. More than half remain in refugee camps. Among the missing are 2000 girls and women who the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism suspect ISIS may have 'further entrenched in human trafficking,' constituing a continuation of the genocide that has outlasted both the self-proclaimed caliphate and the French multinational that may have helped to bankroll it.8 Courts in different countries are helping bring to light a reign of terror that spanned international borders. In the US, some of its victims may find redress, while in France, justice may be closing in on anyone who might prove to have made common cause with the perpetrators.
References
1. RASHID, 'DESTROYING THE SOUL OF THE YAZIDIS,' Augut 2019, https://www.rashid-international.org/downloads/RASHID_Yazidi_Heritage_Destruction_Report_2019.pdf
2. Jenner & Block, 'IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE EASTERN DISTRICT OF NEW YORK,' 14 December 2013, www.jenner.com/a/web/fy85Wd97fANx7fwBecn31r/23-9186-as-filed-complaint2.pdf
3. ANHA, 'Turkish occupation army targets former Lafarge site,' 14 January 2024, https://hawarnews.com/en/turkish-occupation-army-targets-former-lafarge-site?__cf_chl_tk=mSB3Ph6iU.3FEJ.Z3ywRvcu2n.tOahhpLnd.Fmqk0SU-1705415232-0-gaNycGzNDHs
4. Reuters, 'Lafarge can be charged with 'complicity in crimes against humanity' over Syria plant, French court says,' 16 January 2024, https://ca.news.yahoo.com/lafarge-charged-complicity-crimes-against-132904436.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANqF5SKpSZ7KB5rT5rjo_vFZ5LGdZ9bVkC5SeNw3iZGneLy5Tir2dsb1O3GQjITBRSF_xEs2GDBcSU94nKOocm-npnTznmbfhKB_FgOsBCg-9lO7ilPP2phHAcGahghG9yjmFoWVd24uU7xEwZ2RZqmmMaE2bSIIcTGRuh4LAlXD
5. Madeline Young, Lafarge's Case Cemented, 2021, https://scholarlycommons.law.emory.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1032&context=eilr-recent-developments
6. Le Télégramme, 'Complicité de crimes contre l’humanité : les poursuites contre Lafarge validées par la Cour de cassation?' 16 January 2023, www.letelegramme.fr/france/complicite-de-crimes-contre-lhumanite-les-poursuites-contre-lafarge-validees-par-la-cour-de-cassation-6505590.php
7. UN Security Council, 'Security Council Adopts Resolution 2170 (2014) Condemning Gross, Widespread Abuse of Human Rights by Extremist Groups in Iraq, Syria,' 15 August 2014, https://press.un.org/en/2014/sc11520.doc.htm#:~:text=Through%20the%20unanimous%20adoption%20of,as%20ISIS)%20and%20Al%2DNusra
8. Al-Dayel et al, ‘ISIS and Their Use of Slavery,’ 27 January 2020, https://www.icct.nl/publication/isis-and-their-use-slavery
Crown Cement starts up new Unit 6 at Munshiganj grinding plant
17 January 2024Bangladesh: Crown Cement (formerly MI Cement Factory) officially commenced production from its Munshiganj grinding plant’s new Unit 6 on 14 January 2024. The Daily Star newspaper has reported that the new unit increases the Munshiganj plant’s capacity by 72% to 5.7Mt/yr. MI Cement Factory previously signed a US$22.8m syndicated loan facility for the expansion with Eastern Bank Limited on 28 May 2023. The producer said that delays with suppliers and currency crises postponed its delivery of the project. It first postponed the expansion – at that time valued at US$54.6m – due to domestic overcapacity amid the Covid-19 outbreak in October 2020.
Lafarge faces new court case in US over alleged terror funding
15 December 2023US/Iraq: Victims of ISIS brought a new claim for compensation against Lafarge on 14 December 2023 for its alleged complicity in crimes committed by the terrorist group in Iraq. A group of US citizens who belong to the Yazidi minority has sued the company, now part of Switzerland-based Holcim, in a US court. ISIS conducted a genocide against the Yazidi people in Sinjar, Iraq, beginning on 3 August 2014. The genocide involved 2100 – 4400 killings and 4200 – 10,800 abductions of girls and women, and displaced 500,000 people.
On 18 October 2023, Lafarge and Lafarge Syria pleaded guilty to conspiring to provide material support to ISIS and its ally al-Nusra Front by paying them approximately US$5.92m to continue operating during the Syrian Civil War.
Barrister Amal Clooney, representing the claimants in the latest case, said “It is shocking that a leading global corporation worked hand in hand with ISIS while ISIS was executing American civilians and committing genocide against Yazidis. We hope that this case will send a clear message that supporting terrorists cannot be ‘business as usual’ and that there will be justice for the victims.”
Belarus: The US government sanctioned the management company of Belarusian Cement Company on 6 December 2023. PrimePress News has reported that 10 other Belarus-based companies and eight individuals were also added to the US sanctions list. This is the latest group of additions since the US and its allies began sanctioning Belarusian entities in connection to election rigging, human rights abuses and complicity in the on-going Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Governor inspects Al-Barah Cement plant in Yemen
25 October 2023Yemen: Ahmed Al-Masawa, the governor of Taiz, has taken an inspection tour of the Al-Barah Cement plant in Maqbana District. The site was damaged in a bombing raid in 2021 led by the Saudi Arabia-backed coalition in the Yemen Civil War, according to the pro-Houthi Yemen News Agency. At the time damage worth US$26m was reported at the unit. During his visit Al-Masawa discussed how the plant could be repaired and restored to a working condition once again. He also praised the efforts of the workers to preserve what remained of the plant despite all the difficulties they had faced.
Grupo Argos bought land for carbon offsetting in bad faith
13 October 2023Colombia: A court has ordered Grupo Argos to hand over 490 hectares of land in Sucre. The El Colombiano newspaper has reported that the land’s original owners sold their land to Grupo Argos between 2005 and 2007, amid civil conflict. The company argued that it had made the purchase in good faith, however the court rejected this, given that paramilitary violence in the area was a matter of public knowledge. Grupo Argos subsidiary Tekia subsequently planted teak trees on the land as part of the group’s carbon offsetting efforts. The Colombian Land Restitution Unit will now use the land to generate funding for repatriation programmes for people who fled the war.
Ukraine raises eight-month cement production so far in 2023
20 September 2023Ukraine: Cement companies produced 4.75Mt of cement during the first eight months of 2023, up by 30% year-on-year from eight-month 2022 levels. Interfax-Ukraine News has reported that producers are operating at 60% production capacity.
Liudmyla Kripka, executive director of the Ukrainian cement association, Ukrcement, said “If we compare it with last year, when the country’s economy was in shock from Russia’s treacherous attack on Ukraine and the start of the full-scale war, the situation has improved somewhat. Cement production in the first half of 2023 grew by 26%, and in the first eight months by 30%, compared to last year.” Kripka added “We are still far from the indicators of 2021, but the dynamics are encouraging. Once there was a prospect, work for the future began. Cement producers, even in war conditions, are investing in Ukraine and the economic restoration of the regions. This expands the production capacity of the industry as a whole and contributes to the creation of new jobs.”