Displaying items by tag: Consumption
Morocco: Cement consumption has fallen by year-on-year 0.7% to 14.1Mt in 2016 from 14.3Mt in 2015. Data from the Ministry of Housing and Urban Policy shows that particular falls in consumption of nearly 10% were recorded in the Béni Mellal – Khénifra and Drâa – Tafilalet regions. However, the country’s Dakhla - Oued Ed-Dahab region in the south-west reported a 64.3% rise in sales to 63,771t.
Belarus: The Belarusian government has reduced its national plan for the production, consumption and export of cement from 2017 to 2020. The national cement production target has been set at 4.5Mt in 2017, 4.7Mt in 2018, 4.9Mt in 2019 and 5.1Mt in 2010, according to local media. During this period it is anticipated that the country’s cement production capacity will fall to 5.9Mt/yr from 5.4Mt/yr. Exports of cement are forecast to reach 1.6Mt in 2017, 1.7Mt in 2018 and 2019 and 1.8Mt in 2020. Consumption of cement is planned to be 3.3Mt/yr in 2017, 3.4Mt in 2018, 3.5Mt in 2019 and 3.6mt in 2020. The country produces cement from three state-controlled integrated plants.
Kenya: Growth in consumption of cement has slowed to 5.3% in the third quarter of 2016 from 11% in the same period of 2015. The slowdown in growth mirrors a fall in growth in the construction sector, which grew by 9.3% in the third quarter of 2016 compared to 15.6% in the same period of 2015, according to data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. It attributed the fall in growth in part to a ‘considerable’ reduction in civil work on the Standard Gauge Railway from Mombasa to Nairobi as it nears completion.
US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has lowered its forecast for cement consumption in 2016 to 2.7% from a previous estimate of 4%. It has also revised downwards its forecast for 2017 to 3.1% from 4.2%, attributing the declines to post-election political uncertainty, inflation and slower construction activity.
“President-elect Trump continues to shape his cabinet and policies, thus making it difficult to forecast potential outcomes at this point,” said PCA Chief Economist Ed Sullivan. “The impact of uncertainty is expected to be compounded by increased inflationary expectations which will impact long-term bonds and loans, such as mortgages – to the detriment of cement consumption.”
In the meantime the PCA has presented three potential political scenarios in its forecast that could shape policy priorities. These scenarios take into account various levels of political support from the US Congress, as well as possible shifts in the President-elect’s previously announced policy objectives that impact cement consumption.
India: Demonetisation policy is expected to reduce cement demand by 15 – 20% until the end of 2016. It will then reduce growth by 3% in the last quarter of the Indian financial year that runs until the end of March 2017, according to a report by Deutsche Bank Markets Research. It added that investors forecast the drop in short-term demand to be ‘severe.’
Research Analyst Chockalingam Narayanan said that he expected demand from infrastructure projects to partially offset weakness in the residential sector. However, investment towards these projects may be impaired where the revenue comes from state government. These bodies rely on up to 10% of their revenue from the property sector that may be adversely effected by demonetisation. Local bodies are responsible for projects such as rural roads, urban development projects, affordable housing, irrigation and more. Larger road and railway budgets are mostly controlled by central government agencies and are expected to be less effected.
Russia: Cement consumption has fallen by 10.9% year-on-year to 44.3Mt in the first nine months of 2016 from 49.8Mt in the same period in 2015. The biggest decreases occurred on the Central, Volga, Siberian and North-Western federal districts, according to data from the Russian Cement Association (CMPRO) and the Russian Construction journal. Cement production has fallen by 10.9% to 43.5Mt from 48.9Mt. The falls in consumption and production have been blamed on a poor construction market although the residential sector picked up slightly in the third quarter of 2016.
Belgium: FEBELCEM, the federation of cement producers in Belgium, has reported that cement consumption rose by 4.6% year-on-year to 6.4Mt in 2015. It attributed the growth to favourable weather and growth in residential construction. It expressed concern that imports of cement also rose in 2015 by 18% to 1.51Mt from 1.28Mt. This increased the market share of imports to 23.6%.
Brazil: According to Valor Economico, estimates from the cement industry association Sindicato Nacional da Indústria do Cimento (SNIC) point to a retraction in domestic cement demand in 2015, the first market dip in the last 10 years.
Some estimates point to a 10 - 12% decrease, eventually 15% if there is no pick up in demand. There was a 1% increase in cement demand in 2014, as the sector was pushed by construction activities and abundant credit offers at favourable rates. Cement sales in 2014 grew by 1.4% to 70.9Mt and imports fell by 20.4% to 817,000t. Apparent cement consumption in 2014 grew by 1% to 71.7Mt.
The SNIC has said that consumption could fall to around 60Mt in 2016. Installed capacity is 90Mt/yr and 10Mt/yr of extra cement production capacity is expected in 2015.
Indonesia: Cement consumption fell by nearly 4% year-on-year during the first five months of 2015, the biggest decline in the January - May period in the last six years. The fall has been blamed on the country's slowing economy.
Data released by the Indonesian Cement Association show that cement demand in January - May 2015 fell by 3.8% year-on-year to 22.9Mt. It was the steepest drop so far in 2015. Consumption has declined consistently since February 2015. It was also the biggest drop recorded since 2009, when domestic demand fell by nearly 7% year-on-year due.
Indonesia's economy grew by 4.7% in the first quarter of 2015, the slowest in six years and since the start of the global financial crisis. Cement consumption has been a parameter in emerging markets' economic growth. "Cement demand has not fully recovered yet due to slower economic growth, relatively high interest rates, changes in property regulations and bleak commodity exports, which hampered property demand and consequently reduced cement consumption," said Marwan Halim from the stockbroking arm of United Overseas Bank Ltd, UOB KayHian, in a report. Bank Indonesia has maintained its interest rate at 7.5% to curb inflation and maintain its currency, while mortgage regulation and a lower price threshold for property products subject to 20% income have contributed to constraining the property industry.
Cement consumption in May 2015 fell by 7.9% year-on-year, much steeper than the 1.1% decline recorded in April 2015. It was the biggest May drop recorded since May 2009. Lower sales in May 2015 occurred in almost every part of the country, although East Nusa Tenggara and West Nusa Tenggara Provinces saw monthly sales rise by nearly 50% year-on-year. Commodity-based provinces experienced the highest declines during the month, with South Kalimantan and East Kalimantan making the steepest plunges with 41% and 24%, respectively. Even West Java, which traditionally has one of the highest cement consumption rates in Indonesia, suffered a sales decline of 8.3% year-on-year in May 2015.
Ethiopia: The Ministry of Industry has released a draft Cement Industry Development Strategy that intends to increase domestic cement consumption to 20Mt/yr by 2025. Around US$30m will be required to realise the strategy plan that will include providing support to cement plants and overcoming the general shortage of cement in the country. The draft strategy was prepared by the Adama Science and Technology University and has been discussed by stakeholders. At present Ethiopia consumes 6Mt/yr of cement.