Displaying items by tag: Infrastructure

Philippines: The Board of Investments (BOI) is seeking investment in the cement sector as it expects demand to double to 40Mt/yr by 2020 due to a peak in government infrastructure spending. At the same time Department of Trade and Industry (TI) Undersecretary for industry promotions group Ceferino S Rodolfo confirmed that two companies are preparing to build new integrated plants, according to the Manila Bulletin newspaper. Both companies are obtaining permits for their projects but Rodolfo would not confirm their identifies. DMCI Holdings was reported in the local press as being interested in building a plant Antique's Semirara Island in early June 2017.

Indonesia: The Fitch credit rating agency says that cement sales are starting to rise due to increased investment in infrastructure projects but that overcapacity will continue to limit improvements in cement producers' profitability. Indonesian Cement Association's (ASI) data show that domestic cement sales volumes rose by 7% year-on-year in May 2017 to 5.5Mt. Sales volumes for January to May 2017 increased by 4% to 25.3Mt.

Fitch has attributed this growth to a 13% growth in sales of bulk cement, which is used mainly for infrastructure-related developments. By region, the main driver of the increase was in central Java, where toll road projects are underway and where sales rose by 17%. Demand for bagged cement, which is generally used for property developments, rose by 5% in May 2017.

2017 has started more uncertainly for the US cement industry than 2016 did according to the latest data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Cement shipment data from just two months, January and February 2017, can only present a limited impression of the state of the industry. Yet the key trend to look for in Graph 1 is the growth in Midwestern US states against a decline in the Western ones. Previously in 2016 this region’s shipments sunk below those in the West in December and didn’t overtake them until the spring. This time round they’ve stuck closely and overtaken them already in February 2017.

Graph 1: Portland and blended cement shipments by US Census Bureau region for 2016 to February 2017. Source: USGS.

The Midwest’s cement shipments jumped by 21% year-on-year to 2.2Mt for those first two months. Buzzi Unicem concurred with this picture in the Midwest with its first quarter financial results this week, reporting a boost in deliveries in the region. HeidelbergCement agreed, reporting sales volumes increases in the north of the country and a decrease in the West. In that region the USGS data shows an 8% fall in shipments to 2.2Mt. HeidelbergCement blamed heavy rain and flooding in California and Oregon as the cause of the problems. Another potential reason that the USGS hints at are increasing imports of cement that it says have been rising faster than sales. For example, imports of cement to the US as a whole grew by 23.9% year-on-year to 0.81Mt in February 2017.

Overall though the situation for the larger cement producers has been subdued. Many of them blamed good weather in the first quarter of 2016 giving them a hard quarter to measure against in 2017. For example, LafargeHolcim’s sales volumes of cement fell by 4.5% in North America although it did report sales growth off the back of cement pricing and cost controls. HeidelbergCement may have looked good on paper following its integration of the Italcementi/Essroc assets but its cement volumes only grew by 1% in the period. Cemex too reported a similar scenario with falling sales volumes of 5% but growing sales revenue.

To put this in perspective, as the Portland Cement Association’s (PCA) chief economist Ed Sullivan says in the May 2017 issue of Global Cement Magazine, cement production in the US grew in 2016 and it is expected to continue growing in 2017 and 2018. Just like the start of 2016 (see GCW251) the potential for US construction growth in the year ahead is a quietly confident one but it isn’t assured.

Cemex points out that housing starts rose by 8% in the first quarter of 2017, as did construction spending in the industrial and commercial sector. However, it says that infrastructure spending fell by 9% in February 2017. Indeed this last point is an important one given that one of the major Trump campaign pledges in the 2016 presidential campaign was to build more infrastructure. As commentators in Washington DC including the PCA have asked: where is the Bill? Rightly, the PCA are not letting the lawmakers forget this during ‘Infrastructure week’ as the issue is discussed. The US cement industry needs this.

For further information on the US cement industry take a look at the May 2017 issue of Global Cement Magazine

Philippines: Republic Cement & Building Materials has approved a five-year capital expenditure programme to increase its clinker and cement production capacity to meet local demand. One of the cement producer’s owners, Aboitiz Group, announced that it was making the investment to take advantage of infrastructure development plants by the Duterte administration, according to the Philippines Star newspaper. The upgrade is expected to increase the company’s production capacity by 1Mt/yr from its current level of 7Mt/yr. The investment will be spent on both production efficiency improvements at existing plants and by building a new kiln.

Canada: Plans by the state government of Quebec to rebuild the Gaspésie railway between Matapédia and Gaspé will allow McInnis Cement to increase its distribution of cement by rail significantly. Once the line has been restored the cement producer says the number of wagons it uses could rise to 2000/yr from 300/yr.

”The flexibility of the railway combined with our maritime distribution mode allows us to improve our logistics chain and reach certain markets more efficiently, in all seasons,” said McInnis Cement chief executive officer Herve Mallet.

In December 2016 McInnis Cement confirmed its use of the rail for a volume of approximately 28,000t/yr over five years, through a transshipment facility in New Richmond, fed by truck from Port-Daniel–Gascons. Railway repairs are expected to result in the transport of at least 200,000t/yr of cement by rail.

Nepal: Hongshi Shivam Cement’s Sardi cement plant project in Nalwalparasi is likely to be delayed due to slow progress by the government in building a road to a nearby limestone quarry. The project was due to start production in May 2017 but the slow rate of investment by the Chinese firm’s state partner has caused this completion estimate to be revised, according to the Kathmandu Post. Other infrastructure requirements for the project that are slowing it down include a 40km road to the site and an electricity substation.

Russia: Soyuzcement, a cement manufacturing union, predicts that cement production could rise by up to 3% to 57Mt in 2017. In the short-term cement production is expected to benefit from infrastructure investment to local government municipalities from the federal budget and from a reduction to the mortgage rate by the banks. In the longer term the union expects that housing development and concrete road construction will drive the industry, according to Interfax. However, cement production fell in the first two months of 2017 and remained stable in March 2017. Soyuzcement has also prepared a negative forecast that stated that production could fall by 4% in 2017.

India: Ambuja Cement, a subsidiary of LafargeHolcim, supplied over 0.3Mt of cement for the Chenani-Nashri tunnel project that was opened in early April 2017. The company’s technical services teams provided technical support for the project by conducting cement mix design trials to achieve optimised mix proportion. It also held self-compacting concrete workshops to aid engineers and to provide support at the construction site to identify, diagnose and resolve problems. The group started providing materials to the project in 2010.

The new 9km single tube bi-directional Chenani-Nashri tunnel with a parallel intermediate lane escape tunnel of 29 cross passages, is considered one of the most challenging infrastructure projects in India in recent years. It is intended to make road travel safer and reduce traffic disturbances caused by unpredictable landslides, sharp bends, vehicle breakdowns and accidents on the existing mountainous route.

US: The US Customs and Border Protection plans to start awarding contracts by mid-April 2017 for a proposed border wall with Mexico. The agency says it will request bids on or around 6 March 2017 and that companies would have to submit ‘concept papers’ to design and build prototypes by 10 March 2017, according to the Associated Press. Finalists must then submit offers with their proposed costs by 24 March 2017. No details on where construction will start or how much it will be cost have been released.

Estimates for the cost of a 2000-mile border wall vary significantly. The Government Accountability Office estimates it would cost on average US$6.5m/mile for a pedestrian fence and US$1.8m/mile for vehicle barriers. However, an internal Homeland Security Department report prepared for department secretary John Kelly places the bill at about US$21m according to an anonymous source quoted by the Associated Press. It proposes that existing barriers built during the George W Bush administration be extended first in stages.

The cost of the wall will depend on the height, materials and other specifications of the project. Granite Construction, Vulcan Materials and Martin Marietta Materials are all likely to be potential bidders and Mexico’s Cemex is also likely to benefit from any increase in demand for construction materials in the region.

The All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) struck a triumphant note this week as it announced that its industry has over 26Mt/yr of capacity upgrades in the pipeline. Its chairman Sayeed Saigol concluded in a press release that the country’s growth trend required ‘massive’ investment and that its producers were working on it.

Graph 1 – Local and export cement despatches in Pakistan, 2008 – 2016. Data source: APCMA.

Graph 1 shows how the local industry has changed since 2009. At this time exports hit a high of over 11Mt, constituting 34% of all cement despatches at the time. Since then though exports have fallen to below 6Mt or 14% of despatches, as local despatches have started to increase. Although local despatches have risen each year, the growth rate was below 1% in 2011. In 2016 it was over 14%.

Much has changed since 2010. At this time production capacity hit a high of 45Mt/yr in the 2009 – 2010 Pakistan financial year, according to APCMA data, but then utilisation sunk to below 73%, its lowest rate in over a decade. Pakistan’s cement producers sought a way out by exporting their cement. Export volumes subsequently exploded to a high of nearly 11Mt in 2008 – 2009 from next to nothing at the turn of the millennium.

The effects of this had particular repercussions in eastern and southern Africa as local producers suffered against seaborne imports. In 2012 the outgoing chief of South Africa’s PPC summarised the problem by saying that imports were not a threat to African expansion, provided that a cement plant was not built within 200km of a port. Rightly or wrongly cement from Pakistan was vilified by the African press and then legislated against. South Africa even implementing anti-dumping duties to howls of derision from Pakistan.

Funnily enough though the APCMA has recommended that Pakistan’s government do exactly the same thing against imports of cement from Iran. Industry scare stories about Iranian cement being sold illegally in Pakistan have circulated since at least 2012. Iran’s nuclear deal in 2015 must have worried the local industry, as the prize for Iran was the lifting of international sanctions making it easier for one of the world’s largest cement producers to start exporting its product. However, president-elect Trump’s disdain for the Iran deal may put those worries to rest if the deal is ‘cancelled’.

Back to the present, the Pakistan cement industry appears to be booming. One motor is the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, a collection of infrastructure projects worth US$54bn. There is some disagreement at this point about how the usage levels of cement breakdown, with the chief executive of Thatta Cement placing it at 60% for infrastructure and 40% for housing but with other commentators placing it at 70% for housing and 30% for infrastructure. If the latter is true then Pakistan’s cement producers may receive an even bigger payday. The emphasis on housing shouldn’t be underestimated though as the country’s production capacity per capita, below 200kg/capita, is low by international standards. Either way, things are looking good for the local producers.