Displaying items by tag: Infrastructure

One of the surprises from the recent round of half-year results has been HeidelbergCement’s struggle to grow its sales so far in 2017. Part of this has been down to a variable market in Indonesia where the German cement producer runs the second largest player, Indocement.

Cement consumption for the country as a whole dropped by 1.3% year-on-year to 29Mt in the first half of the year, according to Indonesian Cement Association figures. This appears to be due to a particularly poor month in June 2017 where local consumption fell by 27% to 3.7Mt. Prior to that, consumption was actually showing 4% growth up until the end of May.

Fairly reasonably HeidelbergCement blamed the decline in part on this year’s timing of Ramadan. Unfortunately this could not explain everything, as its total sales volumes including exports fell by 2.4%. Remove the exports and its sales volumes fell by 4.4%, more than the national average. It said this was due to its concentration in weaker markets in Jakarta, Banten, and West Java where competition pressures had forced prices down ‘significantly.’

They weren’t alone in feeling the pain in June 2017 with both Semen Indonesia and LafargeHolcim reporting reduced sales. However, LafargeHolcim also raised the issue of production overcapacity creating increased sales volumes and pushing down prices. This was reflected in lower earnings for its Asia Pacific division. HeidelbergCement too saw its earnings crumble.

Graph 1: Cement production capacity and consumption. Source: Semen Indonesia investor presentation, March 2017.

Graph 1 shows quite nicely the fix the Indonesian cement market is in at present. Consumption surpassed production capacity in the early 2010 before incoming capacity jumped ahead again around 2013. You can also view Global Cement’s version of this graph here. Even at an optimistic annual growth rate of 8%, consumption won’t get close to capacity until 2020. Yet before the market collapsed in June, consumption was growing at 4%, which is the weakest of Semen Indonesia’s growth scenarios.

Admittedly the graph is in an investor document so we can forgive ebullience but they are going to need a magic bullet to dodge this one. Lucky then that the graph also has infrastructure highlighted. The cement producer says that the Indonesian government earmarked US$26bn for infrastructure spending in 2017 and that this spending campaign can be seen in the changing ratio of bulk to bagged cement it has been selling. Independent of Semen Indonesia, the Fitch credit rating agency was also predicting rising consumption off the back of infrastructure plans in a report it put out in June.

However, as more cement plants are being built, cement plant utilisation rates seem destined to stay subdued for the foreseeable future unless the government seriously ups its infrastructure investment or unless the economy goes into overdrive. Unsurprisingly exports have shot up so far in 2016, by 74% to 1.14Mt. Cement producers in neighbouring countries beware!

India: The Cement Manufacturers Association (CMA) says that demand for cement is likely to grow in the second half of the Indian financial year due to the new Goods and Services Tax (GST) and increased infrastructure spending. The cement industry is also expected to benefit from a 30% reduction in logistic costs due to simplified state border checks, according to the Press Trust of India. The CMA’s forecast follows a fall in growth for the cement industry in the previous financial year.

Philippines: The Board of Investments (BOI) is seeking investment in the cement sector as it expects demand to double to 40Mt/yr by 2020 due to a peak in government infrastructure spending. At the same time Department of Trade and Industry (TI) Undersecretary for industry promotions group Ceferino S Rodolfo confirmed that two companies are preparing to build new integrated plants, according to the Manila Bulletin newspaper. Both companies are obtaining permits for their projects but Rodolfo would not confirm their identifies. DMCI Holdings was reported in the local press as being interested in building a plant Antique's Semirara Island in early June 2017.

Indonesia: The Fitch credit rating agency says that cement sales are starting to rise due to increased investment in infrastructure projects but that overcapacity will continue to limit improvements in cement producers' profitability. Indonesian Cement Association's (ASI) data show that domestic cement sales volumes rose by 7% year-on-year in May 2017 to 5.5Mt. Sales volumes for January to May 2017 increased by 4% to 25.3Mt.

Fitch has attributed this growth to a 13% growth in sales of bulk cement, which is used mainly for infrastructure-related developments. By region, the main driver of the increase was in central Java, where toll road projects are underway and where sales rose by 17%. Demand for bagged cement, which is generally used for property developments, rose by 5% in May 2017.

2017 has started more uncertainly for the US cement industry than 2016 did according to the latest data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Cement shipment data from just two months, January and February 2017, can only present a limited impression of the state of the industry. Yet the key trend to look for in Graph 1 is the growth in Midwestern US states against a decline in the Western ones. Previously in 2016 this region’s shipments sunk below those in the West in December and didn’t overtake them until the spring. This time round they’ve stuck closely and overtaken them already in February 2017.

Graph 1: Portland and blended cement shipments by US Census Bureau region for 2016 to February 2017. Source: USGS.

The Midwest’s cement shipments jumped by 21% year-on-year to 2.2Mt for those first two months. Buzzi Unicem concurred with this picture in the Midwest with its first quarter financial results this week, reporting a boost in deliveries in the region. HeidelbergCement agreed, reporting sales volumes increases in the north of the country and a decrease in the West. In that region the USGS data shows an 8% fall in shipments to 2.2Mt. HeidelbergCement blamed heavy rain and flooding in California and Oregon as the cause of the problems. Another potential reason that the USGS hints at are increasing imports of cement that it says have been rising faster than sales. For example, imports of cement to the US as a whole grew by 23.9% year-on-year to 0.81Mt in February 2017.

Overall though the situation for the larger cement producers has been subdued. Many of them blamed good weather in the first quarter of 2016 giving them a hard quarter to measure against in 2017. For example, LafargeHolcim’s sales volumes of cement fell by 4.5% in North America although it did report sales growth off the back of cement pricing and cost controls. HeidelbergCement may have looked good on paper following its integration of the Italcementi/Essroc assets but its cement volumes only grew by 1% in the period. Cemex too reported a similar scenario with falling sales volumes of 5% but growing sales revenue.

To put this in perspective, as the Portland Cement Association’s (PCA) chief economist Ed Sullivan says in the May 2017 issue of Global Cement Magazine, cement production in the US grew in 2016 and it is expected to continue growing in 2017 and 2018. Just like the start of 2016 (see GCW251) the potential for US construction growth in the year ahead is a quietly confident one but it isn’t assured.

Cemex points out that housing starts rose by 8% in the first quarter of 2017, as did construction spending in the industrial and commercial sector. However, it says that infrastructure spending fell by 9% in February 2017. Indeed this last point is an important one given that one of the major Trump campaign pledges in the 2016 presidential campaign was to build more infrastructure. As commentators in Washington DC including the PCA have asked: where is the Bill? Rightly, the PCA are not letting the lawmakers forget this during ‘Infrastructure week’ as the issue is discussed. The US cement industry needs this.

For further information on the US cement industry take a look at the May 2017 issue of Global Cement Magazine

Philippines: Republic Cement & Building Materials has approved a five-year capital expenditure programme to increase its clinker and cement production capacity to meet local demand. One of the cement producer’s owners, Aboitiz Group, announced that it was making the investment to take advantage of infrastructure development plants by the Duterte administration, according to the Philippines Star newspaper. The upgrade is expected to increase the company’s production capacity by 1Mt/yr from its current level of 7Mt/yr. The investment will be spent on both production efficiency improvements at existing plants and by building a new kiln.

Canada: Plans by the state government of Quebec to rebuild the Gaspésie railway between Matapédia and Gaspé will allow McInnis Cement to increase its distribution of cement by rail significantly. Once the line has been restored the cement producer says the number of wagons it uses could rise to 2000/yr from 300/yr.

”The flexibility of the railway combined with our maritime distribution mode allows us to improve our logistics chain and reach certain markets more efficiently, in all seasons,” said McInnis Cement chief executive officer Herve Mallet.

In December 2016 McInnis Cement confirmed its use of the rail for a volume of approximately 28,000t/yr over five years, through a transshipment facility in New Richmond, fed by truck from Port-Daniel–Gascons. Railway repairs are expected to result in the transport of at least 200,000t/yr of cement by rail.

Nepal: Hongshi Shivam Cement’s Sardi cement plant project in Nalwalparasi is likely to be delayed due to slow progress by the government in building a road to a nearby limestone quarry. The project was due to start production in May 2017 but the slow rate of investment by the Chinese firm’s state partner has caused this completion estimate to be revised, according to the Kathmandu Post. Other infrastructure requirements for the project that are slowing it down include a 40km road to the site and an electricity substation.

Russia: Soyuzcement, a cement manufacturing union, predicts that cement production could rise by up to 3% to 57Mt in 2017. In the short-term cement production is expected to benefit from infrastructure investment to local government municipalities from the federal budget and from a reduction to the mortgage rate by the banks. In the longer term the union expects that housing development and concrete road construction will drive the industry, according to Interfax. However, cement production fell in the first two months of 2017 and remained stable in March 2017. Soyuzcement has also prepared a negative forecast that stated that production could fall by 4% in 2017.

India: Ambuja Cement, a subsidiary of LafargeHolcim, supplied over 0.3Mt of cement for the Chenani-Nashri tunnel project that was opened in early April 2017. The company’s technical services teams provided technical support for the project by conducting cement mix design trials to achieve optimised mix proportion. It also held self-compacting concrete workshops to aid engineers and to provide support at the construction site to identify, diagnose and resolve problems. The group started providing materials to the project in 2010.

The new 9km single tube bi-directional Chenani-Nashri tunnel with a parallel intermediate lane escape tunnel of 29 cross passages, is considered one of the most challenging infrastructure projects in India in recent years. It is intended to make road travel safer and reduce traffic disturbances caused by unpredictable landslides, sharp bends, vehicle breakdowns and accidents on the existing mountainous route.