Our latest look at South America starts by posing the question: how far can the market in Brazil keep growing? As Graph 1 shows below, cement sales skyrocketed through the coronavirus pandemic, due to a general recovery locally that started in 2018 and relatively weak lockdown measures compared to other countries. Rolling annual totals on a monthly basis from the National Cement Industry Association (SNIC) suggest that this growth period tailed off from May 2021. SNIC was also keen to point out that, despite nearly hitting nearly a 20% growth rate at one point, the sector was still 11% behind where it was before the lull that lasted from 2015 to 2018. As ever the association has an eye on potential risks. At present these include legislative reforms, price inflation and carbon pricing. It noted that Mexico, Colombia, Chile and Argentina all price carbon already but said that the country ‘has a great ally in the Brazilian cement industry’ on the issue.
Elsewhere the big story in Brazil has been the ongoing sale of Holcim’s local assets. The latest news at the start of August 2021 was that the bidders included CSN Cimentos, Cimentos Mizu, Cimento Apodi, InterCement and Votorantim. The first three companies were reportedly working in a consortium in an attempt to buy 10 production plants while InterCement and Votorantim were focusing on smaller bids to avoid the ire of the competition regulators. Aside from this, CSN Cimentos agreed to buy Cimento Elizabeth for US$220m in July 2021 and Companhia Nacional de Cimento (CNC), part of Italy-based Buzzi Unicem’s 50% subsidiary BCPAR, acquired CRH Brasil following approval by the regulators. Of note on the production side, Votorantim Cimentos started operation of a new production line at its Pecém grinding plant in Ceará in July 2021.
Graph 1: Cement sales in selected South American countries in first half of year, 2019 – 2021. Source: Local cement associations and national statistics offices.
Over in Peru the now familiar gap-tooth pattern of stunted growth in 2020 can be seen in the sector’s cement sales, but sales rebounded far stronger than comparable sized markets in Argentina and Colombia. Sales nearly doubled to 6.42Mt in the first half of 2021 from 3.33Mt in the same period in 2020 and were significantly higher than the 4.94Mt recorded in the first half of 2020. Imports are also worth watching. Combined cement and clinker importers nearly doubled from 0.76Mt in the first half of 2019 to 1.4Mt in the first half of 2021. Clinker imports made up about two thirds of this figure and the Association of Cement Producers (ASOCEM) noted in June 2021 that 88% of the imported cement came from Vietnam while about two thirds of the clinker came from Japan and Indonesia.
Away from the market data, both Cementos Pacasmayo’s and Unión Andina de Cementos’ (UNACEM) financial results bounced back in the first half of 2021. Cementos Pacasmayo attributed the rebound to sales of bagged cement to the self-construction sector and public sector reconstruction demand. UNACEM also noted the effect of the self-construction sector and said it expected its ‘solid’ cement despatches to continue for the rest of the year despite the risk of a third wave of coronavirus in the country and the messy presidential elections. Other stories of note so far in 2021 include new developments in Cementos Interoceanicos long-held plans to build a 1.0Mt/yr cement plant in Puno and a major upgrade planned to Yura’s integrated plant in Arequipa.
In Colombia local cement despatches grew by 34% year-on-year to 6.20Mt in the first half of 2021 from 4.61Mt in the same period in 2020. Cementos Argos reported major improvements in sales, sales volumes of cement and earnings due to the lockdown in 2020. However, a national wave of protests calling for social reform that started in the spring of 2012 forced the company to shut down its integrated Yumbo plant for over a month. This represented 18% of its national sales. The output of other plants in the country was also negatively affected by roadblocks created by the unrest. Cemex reported the same problems in the country.
Finally, Argentina’s cement despatches rose by 44% to 5.52Mt in the first half of 2021 from 3.83Mt in the same period in 2020. Loma Negra reported that its sales, sales volumes and earnings were all up by a similar rate. The subsidiary of Brazil-based InterCement started up the kiln on its new 2.7Mt/yr production line at the L’Amalí cement plant in Olavarría in June 2021 and commissioning of the new mill and despatch centre on the line were reportedly coming soon in early August 2021. Earlier in the year, in May 2021, Holcim Argentina inaugurated a new 0.5Mt/yr clinker production line at its Malagueño cement plant in Cordoba. These expansion projects were ordered long before coronavirus appeared so it will take a while to see their effects upon the local market. However, the government intervened in June 2021 when it persuaded some building materials producers to agree to reference prices in a bid to curb mounting inflation.
This is what recovery looks like so far in 2021 in the larger cement producing countries in South America. The Brazilian market’s growth phase may be waning after a furious period that even coronavirus wasn’t allowed to slow. Peru’s potential seems set to take off, Colombia’s rebound should have been greater (but it was dented by social unrest) and Argentina seems to be resetting to its usual level. Whatever else happens in the coming months the story to watch going forward will be which company picks up Holcim’s assets in Brazil.