Russia made imports easier last week. At the end of January 2022 an order from Rosstandart, the national standisation agency, relaxed inspection controls allowing for simpler imports from countries outside the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Previously each such batch required a 28 day inspection period. This has now been dropped to encourage more imports of cement. Deputy Industry and Trade Minister Viktor Yevtukhov explained the reasoning behind the measure to InterFax, “In order to avoid problems in the domestic Russian cement market in the future, it is necessary to spur competition. It will balance the prices for this basic building material and will restrain their growth in case of such risks.”
Some idea of the situation facing the Russian cement market at the moment can be gleaned from market data supplied by CM Pro. Production rose by 7% year-on-year to 56.4Mt in the 11 months to November 2021. Imports rose by 26% to 1.6Mt at the same time. The Ministry of Industry and Trade has attributed this to a construction boom created by growth in both government-funded infrastructure projects and domestic housing. It also noted a local shortage and price increases in the Central Federal District in the autumn of 2021, although it said it redistributed cement from other regions to remedy the situation. This imbalance in the country’s main cement producing and consuming region, including Moscow, can also be seen in the figures. Production was about 2Mt below consumption in this area in 2019 and 2020. Yet so far, to November 2021, this gap grew to 2.7Mt. At the same time the price of cement reportedly jumped by 20% from November 2020 to December 2021.
Graph 1: Cement production in Russia, 2015 – 2021. Source: CM Pro and estimate from Global Cement.
It has been reported that the Ministry of Industry and Trade has also been wondering publicly why a study conducted in 2021 found that the national cement sector had an apparent operating capacity of 65Mt/yr compared to a total production capacity of 105Mt/yr, including mothballed and inactive plants and production lines. In other words the sector has been operating at a 62% production utilisation rate and the government is trying to coax it higher by opening up imports. And just to make sure that there was no confusion on the matter, Yevtukhov added, “I am sure that if the domestic producers will cope with the task of increasing the real volume of cement production and will not allow prices for their products to increase above the rate of inflation, the market will self-regulate, and additional imports of cement to Russia (which are traditionally small) will not be needed."
Given the country’s large size, imports seem to be mainly a threat to producers in the big population centres around Moscow and the Volga with good international transport links. Producers appear to have received and understood the message from the government as they have pledged to increase real operating capacity by 3 – 5Mt. The bear in the room for both Russian and European cement producers though is what happens in Ukraine in 2022. With North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members threatening economic sanctions and Russia supplying a significant share of Europe’s gas supply, any progression from the current rhetoric could cause discomfort to markets in both Russia and Europe. Turkish cement exporters, manufacturing in a NATO member country and hoping to take advantage of increased exports to Russia, could be in a particular bind if events heat up. All of this indicates that Smikom picked an interesting time to buy Russia’s largest cement producer, Eurocement, back in mid-2021. There’s an ongoing construction boom but also risks aplenty.
With apposite timing, LafargeHolcim Russia announced this week that it was going to reopen its integrated Voskresensk cement plant near Moscow. The unit was originally stopped in 2016. Now it plans to spend Euro23m on restarting the plant and building a dry construction mix unit at the site. Who says big government doesn’t work?