Further consolidation of the Indian cement sector looked closer this week with the news that Dalmia Bharat’s cement subsidiary has agreed to buy the remaining cement plants from Jaiprakash Associates. The US$685m deal covers cement and power plants in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. It includes clinker production capacity of 6.7Mt/yr, cement capacity of 9.4Mt/yr and 280MW of captive power capacity.
Chart 1: Map of Dalmia Bharat’s cement plants in November 2022 with region of proposed new plants highlighted in orange. Source: Adapted from Dalmia Bharat investor presentation.
The acquisition gives Dalmia Bharat the opportunity to draw level with Shree Cement in terms of cement production capacity. If the deal completes, then both cement companies will hold a capacity of around 46Mt/yr. This puts them behind UltraTech Cement and Adani Group nationally. In terms of the cost, the proposed acquisition works out at around US$73/t of cement capacity, although this doesn’t take into account the additional captive power generation capacity. This compares to US$119/t for UltraTech Cement’s purchase of Jaiprakash Associates plants in 2017 and US$97/t for Adani Group’s purchase of Holcim’s Indian-based business in September 2022.
Dalmia Bharat’s rationale for its move this week was that it wants to grow in the Central Region of the country and work towards a capacity target of 75Mt/yr by the 2027 financial year and at least 110Mt/yr by the 2031 one. It backed this up in an investors’ presentation by saying that cement consumption was around 170kg/capita locally and that the region represented about 15% of national demand at 54Mt/yr. This roughly checks out with regional integrated/clinker production capacity distribution analysis that Global Cement Weekly carried out in June 2022. Only the East region was lower, but this didn’t take into account grinding plants or new projects.
Completion of the agreement is planned by December 2023 and is subject to the usual regulatory approvals. However, readers may recall the difficulties UltraTech Cement had in the mid-2010s when it attempted to buy two plants from the subsidiary of Jaypee Group. Problems stemming from an amendment to the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) (MMDR) Act caused the original proposal to be rejected by the Bombay High Court in early 2016. UltraTech Cement bounced back though with a deal to buy far more plants instead. This deal completed successfully in mid-2017.
Jaypee Group’s debts have also caused problems along the way. Indeed, this is the reason why it has finally decided to leave the cement business altogether. In early December 2022 it reported its latest default on interest payments towards some of its loans. Overall its outstanding debt was US$3.39bn. Due in part to this, there have been plenty of stories in the local press over the last decade on whoever was reputedly buying the Jaypee Group’s cements assets. In October 2022, for example, Adani Group was reportedly in advanced talks to buy Jaypee Group’s remaining cement business until it denied it publicly. One deal that did reach fruition was Dalmia Bharat’s purchase of Bokaro Jaypee Cement back in 2014 from a joint-venture majority controlled by Jaypee Group. That agreement gave it full control of the 2.1Mt/yr Bokaro grinding plant in Jharkhand. Looking at the current proposed acquisition, one commentator from HDFC Securities in the local business press noted that detail on the transaction is lacking, such as what will happen to existing limestone reserves. Another pointed out that the deal was probably 30 – 40% below the replacement cost because the plants were old, lack of interest from potential buyers and due to the “likely need for additional CAPEX to run operations.”
If the Dalmia Bharat - Jaiprakash Associates deal completes then it marks the end of an era for the Indian cement industry as one of the big players bows out of the sector. It shows once more that, despite the mounting fuel and raw material costs in 2022, companies are still seeing big opportunities. In its December 2022 report, the ratings agency ICRA found that cement sales volumes grew by 11% year-on-year to 187Mt in the first half of the 2023 financial year. The acquisition might also, hopefully, put an end to the endless speculation about who Jaypee Group might be selling its cement plants to! Although, of course, the question then becomes who else might be considering divesting cement assets.