The news this week that construction companies in the Indian state of Telengana are considering cement imports from China in order to circumvent a local dispute over cement prices highlights several issues. Firstly, state politics in India can create some interesting and not altogether logical situations. Secondly, it throws the spotlight on the changing situation in China, where the cement industry will be increasingly squeezed from all sides in the coming years. Thirdly, it shows that the global cement industry is exactly that – Global.

The first reaction when hearing of Chinese imports into India might reasonably be one of shock. How can it be that it is cheaper (21% less by local estimates) to import cement from 5500km away, into the world's second-largest cement producer, than it is to send it down the road from Andhra Pradesh? Overall, India is 'swimming in' excess cement capacity, which should make it cheap across the board. Large, well-run and efficient plants, coupled to current low diesel (transport) prices, should give the industry significant advantages on the international stage. So what's going on?

Poor local and national infrastructure is the 'obvious' culprit here, but it is only part of the story. The Telengana state government has imposed extra taxes on trucks bringing cement into the state from neighbouring Andhra Pradesh. By suggesting imports from China, it is possible that the Real Estate Developers' Associations of India (CREDAI) wants to make a point to the state government. Spotting a local imbalance of cement supply and demand, Telengana appears, in this instance, to have acted to make a quick buck. However, it has done so to the detriment of many other stakeholders. The extra tax deprives cement producers of higher sales, robs hauliers of business and stops the public getting a fair market price for cement. This highlights that India has not only physical infrastructure to build (in terms of highways and new railways), but also a more effective political infrastructure that can put aside state-on-state one-upmanship. This is a long-term task and not straightforward when you consider India's 1.25 billion inhabitants.

Of course the fact that China has been mentioned by CREDAI as a likely source of cement is far less surprising. The largest cement producer in the world has had excess capacity for several years now (regardless of who is supplying the statistics) and takes the opportunity to export whenever it can.

However, the sands are shifting under China at the moment. The country has not been able to rely on domestic demand to keep its over-inflated cement industry in business for many years now. It is indeed highly questionable whether it ever needed a cement industry the size of the one that it built.

Indeed, economic growth is slowing for the economy as a whole and this week there were even calls for the national housing bank to reduce interest rates for lower and middle income earners, effectively propping the sector up. This comes on top of tax breaks for home-buyers, which came in at the end of March 2015. Falling house prices have bred uncertainty and a lack of demand for new constructions and hence cement. Could China's absurd cement demand bubble finally be about to pop?

Whether or not the bubble pops next week or in a couple of years, the government has long been making preparations, in the cement sector at least. It has started to aggressively remove older and inefficient capacity, encourage cement exports and helped finance new plants overseas. China is changing its emphasis from cement production to cement plant project management. This is a good move, especially as there will be fewer opportunities for conventional exports in the coming years. Neighbouring Vietnam expects to have an incredible 20Mt of cement for export at less than US$50/t in 2015, flooding China's traditional sphere of influence. At the same time, the number of countries that are self-sufficient in terms of cement production are on the rise, meaning fewer importers.

Even opportunities for Chinese firms to build cement plants outside China are likely to become fewer and further between in the future. The most promising markets in Africa already have Chinese cement plants or cement plant projects, joined this week by Zambia. Chinese cement and cement engineering firms also have interests in Central Asia, Nepal, Mongolia and elsewhere. These markets, while promising, will have nothing like the potential to consume cement like China did in the recent past. As China reduces its capacity, its growing cement plant engineering sector may well find it hard to do enough business to survive...