Tsunami reconstruction demand calculated

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Japan: Post-earthquake reconstruction demand is expected to boost pre-tax profits at four major Japanese cement firms by a combined USD 411m until 2016.

Assuming that their market shares remain the same, reconstruction demand will push up pre-tax profits by USD 187.2m at Taiheiyo Cement Corp, USD 100m at Sumitomo Osaka Cement Co., USD 62.4m at Mitsubishi Materials Corp. and USD 62.4m at Ube Industries Ltd.

The Japan Cement Association estimates that 10Mt of cement will be used for reconstruction projects. The figure was arrived at based on damages estimated by the Cabinet Office and how cement sales increased in the aftermath of the 1995 Kobe earthquake. The trade group believes that full reconstruction will take about five years.

Cement firms each book an operating profit of about USD 50/t of cement sold. Taiheiyo Cement controls almost 40% of the market in Japan's north-eastern Tohoku region. Reconstruction demand will push up the firm's cement sales by nearly 4Mt, translating to a USD 37.4m contribution to pre-tax profit annually for the next five years.

Last modified on 22 November 2011

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