US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has lowered its forecast for cement consumption in 2016 to 2.7% from a previous estimate of 4%. It has also revised downwards its forecast for 2017 to 3.1% from 4.2%, attributing the declines to post-election political uncertainty, inflation and slower construction activity.
“President-elect Trump continues to shape his cabinet and policies, thus making it difficult to forecast potential outcomes at this point,” said PCA Chief Economist Ed Sullivan. “The impact of uncertainty is expected to be compounded by increased inflationary expectations which will impact long-term bonds and loans, such as mortgages – to the detriment of cement consumption.”
In the meantime the PCA has presented three potential political scenarios in its forecast that could shape policy priorities. These scenarios take into account various levels of political support from the US Congress, as well as possible shifts in the President-elect’s previously announced policy objectives that impact cement consumption.