Displaying items by tag: Forecast

Nepal: A report by the Nepal Rastra Bank has estimated that Nepal will require 26Mt/yr of cement by the 2024 – 25 financial year due to large-scale infrastructure projects. However, current production before the coronavirus pandemic was around 7.5Mt/yr despite the country’s production capacity of 15Mt/yr, according to the Kathmandu Post newspaper. Domestic consumption is 9Mt with around 1.5Mt of demand supplied from imports, mainly from India. The report added that most of the large projects in Nepal used cement imported from India due to issues with certification, consistent quality and the inability of local producers to offer bulk supply. In 2019 the Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Supplies forecast that the country’s cement production capacity could increase to 20Mt/yr by the end of the 2023 – 24 year.

Dhruba Raj Thapa, president of the Cement Manufacturers Association of Nepal, said that the data in the report by the bank contained errors. He pointed out that the country has a cement production capacity of 22Mt/yr and that it is already self-sufficient in the commodity. He also refuted the claims that infrastructure projects prefer imported cement.

India: Cement demand will drop by an estimated 20% year-on-year in the three months up to 30 June 2021, the first quarter of the 2022 financial year in India. Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has attributed the projected decrease to a significant drop in rural housing’s bagged cement uptake due to state governments’ coronavirus lockdowns, which prevent retailers from opening. The Hindu newspaper has reported that this type of construction previously generated one third of demand. Segments such as urban housing, commercial construction and infrastructure will be less affected, according to the forecast.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not yet implemented a national lockdown in response to the country’s second wave of coronavirus. New cases numbered 264,000 on 17 May 2021, down by 20% week-on-week from 330,000 on 10 May 2021.

Vietnam: SSI Research has predicted that Vietnamese cement exports will not grow in 2021. The reason for this is the expected stabilisation of China’s domestic cement supply, which is forecast to increase its share of the market. The Viet Nam News newspaper has reported that China accounts for 57% of Vietnamese cement and clinker exports. Other factors restricting export growth are safeguard duties in Bangladesh and the Philippines and the Vietnam government’s mandatory minimum domestic sales regulations, variously between 65% and 70% of total output.

Poland: The Polish Cement Association (SPC) has forecast a 2% year-on-year drop in cement sales to 18.5Mt in 2021. President Krzysztof Kieres attributed the fall to growing imports and reduced construction due to a cold start to the year. He predicts that sales will rise again, by 4% to 19.3Mt, in 2022.

The SPC has warned that the industry faces large costs in meeting the European Green Deal’s required 40% CO₂ emissions reduction by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. In particular, the local industry noted that the rising European Union (EU) CO₂ price has caused a direct increase in electricity prices. It has called on the government and the EU to compensate it for this rise.

Imports of cement also present a key challenge. In 2020, imports of Belarusian cement increased by 80% to 440,000t and imports of Ukrainian cement increased by 50% to 32,000t. The association expressed strong support for the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) as a means of protecting the industry against imports both from neighbouring countries outside the EU and via polluting shipping from cement exporters further afield such as Turkey.

Australia: Adbri says that it expects growth in domestic cement demand to continue beyond a present residential construction boom. The Australian Financial Review newspaper has reported that Adbri chief executive Nick Miller believes that house building has undergone a nationwide ‘pull-forward’ in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. The producer says that the government’s planned US$116bn infrastructure spend would insure a medium-term increase in cement demand. It gave as an example the Western Sydney Aerotropolis, which will require 500,000m³ of concrete. The company currently derives 45% of sales from non-residential construction.

China: Asia Cement (China) has predicted a year-on-year increase of 110 - 130% in its consolidated net profit in in the first quarter of 2020. The company has attributed the anticipated growth to increased sales volumes during the quarter.

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has predicted a rise in US cement demand in 2021 and 2022 in its Spring 2021 Cement Consumption and Construction Activity Outlook. The report stated that mortgage rates are expected to remain low throughout 2021, prompting single-family construction. Non-residential cement consumption declines are expected to continue from 2020 in to 2021 and 2022, though with decreasing impact. Predicted oil price rises will increase oil well cement consumption.

The association welcomed a proposed US$2.2Tn eight-year federal government infrastructure spending programme. Chief economist and senior vice president Ed Sullivan warned of the proposal’s inherent political weakness in its inclusion of US$1.2Tn-worth of low or no-cement projects. He said that the opposition would latch on to this as grounds to oppose the necessary tax rises for the funding.

Sullivan said, “This recovery is predicated on continued progress in fighting Covid-19. The rapid pace of vaccinations and increased mask usage have resulted in a decline in death rates from over 3,000 daily in January 2021 to less than 825 daily in April 2021.” said Sullivan. “The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)’s current forecast suggests a sustained and significant decline in daily Covid-19 deaths to less than 170. Progress associated with Covid-19 is the critical factor in the near-term outlook.” He added, “After committing to spending US$5.2Tn in Covid-19 relief and adding another US$2.0Tn in operations, the federal US debt could rise by US$7.0Tn in 2020 - 2021. This puts the discussion of the Biden US$2.2Tn infrastructure proposal into context. The proposal must pay for itself, which means higher taxes. While investing in traditional infrastructure such as roads and bridges has bi-partisan appeal, tax increases and some programmes dubiously labelled as infrastructure have caused concern. This concern threatens the potential passage of the initiative.”

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has published a March 2021 Economic Update. The update calls attention to the danger that insufficient aid to state and local governments presents to construction. The American Rescue Plan Act 2021 affords US$350bn to these bodies, which consume roughly half of the cement produced in the US.

Senior regional economist Brian Schmidt said that state and local government coffers are running low due to reduced tax revenues because of the Covid-19 outbreak, especially in areas reliant on oil and tourism. Schmidt concluded that the total US$1.9tn stimulus package is likely sufficiently replenish state funds to maintain cement demand. He added that this will depend on significantly reduced Covid-19 case counts by the third quarter of 2021 in line with the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s baseline forecast.

US: The Market Intelligence Group at the Portland Cement Association (PCA) has made an additional update to its Winter 2020 – 2021 economic forecast. Senior vice president and chief economist Ed Sullivan revised the association’s assessments regarding the path of Covid-19, vaccine supply, government Covid-19 relief and inflationary pressures.

The association said that it expects domestic cement consumption to grow by nearly 1% in 2021, fuelled largely by residential construction. It estimated ‘weak’ non-residential construction performance, with soft economic activity affecting government funds at federal state level. It added that the new federal government Covid-19 relief targeting state government would likely limit public cement’s drag on 2021 cement consumption growth.

Saudi Arabia: NCB Capital has predicted a growth in Saudi cement sales of 4% year-on-year to 52.8Mt in 2021. The investment and analyst division of National Commercial Bank described the sector’s outlook as ‘positive,’ due to on-going housing programmes and the Public Investment Fund’s 2021 – 2025 strategy, as well as a pick-up in infrastructure projects.