Displaying items by tag: Forecast

India: Production capacity utilisation in the cement industry is expected to remain below 70% in the 2020 – 2021 financial year due to new plant projects in the next two years. Credit ratings agencies ICRA, India Ratings and Crisil all forecast relatively low demand for cement compared to a decade-high of 13% in the 2019 – 2020 period, according to the Press Trust of India. Cement production rose by 0.7% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2019 – 2020 period. However, production growth has hastened since then. The ratings agencies offer different outlooks on anticipated profits look forward.

Russia: Russian producers sold 2.4Mt of cement in January 2020, up by 9.6% from 2.2Mt in January 2019. This is in line with Unioncement’s optimistic forecast of 6% year-on-year demand growth. The coming construction season promises sustained growth due to the planned renovation of housing stock, the implementation of integrated development projects and an increased share of roads built using cement concrete, in line with the country’s 2020 Housing and Urban Environment programme and President Putin’s social initiatives.

US: On 4 February 2020, PCA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Ed Sullivan predicted that US cement demand would rise by 1.7% in 2020 and may rise by as much as 2.7% if residential construction exceeds expectations. Sullivan stated that demand would maintain moderate growth through at least to 2022. “As long as the economy continues to grow and create jobs, the economy will remain on solid ground and continue to support cyclical portions of the cement market,” he said.

Vietnam: Maintaining exports will be critical for the Vietnamese cement industry amid rising production output and anticipated sluggish domestic sales in 2020, according to Nguyễn Quang Cung, President of the Vietnam Cement Association (VCA).

Cung also reported that two new cement plants will go into operation during 2020: a 2.5Mt/yr plant in Tân Thắng Commune in the central province of Nghệ, and a 4.6Mt/yr plant in Bỉm Sơn Commune, Thanh Hóa. These new facilities will give the domestic cement industry a total production capacity of more than 100Mt/yr, with local demand estimated to be closer to 70Mt/yr. “Maintaining exports will be critical for the cement industry this year,” said Cung, but domestic projects are likely to remain ‘sluggish’ due to stagnant infrastructure projects.

Over the medium term, Cung said that cement exports would fall to 25Mt in 2021 form 34Mt in 2020, based on an expectation that domestic sales will increase.

Brazil: Brazil has reported a growth in annual sales volumes for the first time since 2014. Producers sold 54.5Mt of cement – up by 3.5% from 52.8Mt in 2018 and exceeding SNIC president Paulo Camillo Penna’s January 2019 forecast of 3.0% growth. Penna has predicted a 3.6% increase to 56.5Mt in 2020. Valor newspaper has reported that Penna bases his assumption on favourable interest rates and low inflation of the Brazilian real as well as the government’s implementation of anticipated industrial policies favourable to production.

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has releases a two-year forecast of moderate growth in cement consumption between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021. It projected growth of 1.7% in 2020, slowing slightly to 1.4% in 2021, corresponding to 2.1% and 1.7% GDP growth annually. Speaking at the 38th International Cement Seminar in Atlanta, PCA senior vice president and chief economist Ed Sullivan projected consumption growth of 1.6% - 2.3% in 2019 against GDP growth of 2.4% over the period, with consumption bolstered by the 2018 Federal Budget, which allowed for US$20bn in infrastructure investments in 2018 and 2019. He noted growing uncertainty (21% in 2019) with the expiry of the ‘pent-up demand zip that invigorates the initial stages of economic recovery long past.’

Rising house prices and mild inflation signify the continuation of the US economy’s longest expansion post-World War Two, with 161,000 net new jobs generated so far in 2019. With a forecasted population increase of 60m by 2040, US cement producers appears still have their work cut out in keeping up with demand.

Tunisia: Carthage Cement has announced a general improvement in its financial indicators as it forecast a gross operating income of US$25m for 2019. This would represent a 123% improvement from US$11.2m in 2018. Ibrahim Sana, Carthage Cement’s CEO anticipates a gross operating income as high as US$55m in 2023, with a targeted turnover of US$140m.

The company also announced a 0.1Mt export contract for cement to be sent to Spain.

Australia: James Hardie Industries, the world's largest fibre cement producer, highlighted the potential for higher earnings in the 2020 fiscal year, citing an improved performance for its North American fibre cement segment.

The company said it expected full-year adjusted net operating profit to be US$221-248m, compared with US$204m a year earlier.

"Our North America Fiber Cement segment delivered very good volume growth in a down market while generating an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margin at the top end of our target range," said CEO Jack Truong in a statement.

India: CARE Ratings has identified Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Rajasthan, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh as the key states expected to lead cement production capacity additions over the next decade to 2030. In a sector report the credits agency forecast growth of 120Mt in this period. It noted that Rajasthan, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana were among the top states in installed capacity at present. It said that the southern region led with highest installed capacity of 33% followed by the North, East, West and Central regions. Rajasthan, Karnataka, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra are among the states with highest limestone resources.

India is the world’s second largest second producer but its per capita consumption is low, at 210kg. This is well below the global average of around 575kg/capita.

Australia: Adelaide Brighton says that it expects its net profit, after tax excluding property, to be no higher than US$90m in 2019. This is a further reduction on the forecast of around US$110m it made in May 2019. It has blamed poor residential and civil construction markets, continued competition in Queensland and South Australia, growing raw material costs and fees related to a cancelled import order.