Displaying items by tag: Forecast

China: Dongwu Cement has predicted a net profit of US$1.71m in the first half of 2020, down by 62% year-on-year from US$4.56m in the first half of 2019. Company chairman Liu Dong said the expected decrease was “primarily attributable to a decline in sales volume and sales price of the group’s products resulting from the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic during the period.”

China: Asia Cement China has estimated a 40% - 45% year-on-year decline in profit in 2020 due to lower sales volumes and selling prices. Dow Jones Newswires has reported that this is due to the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak on cement demand outside of China. The company is active in several countries including Thailand, Taiwan and South Korea.

Egypt: Suez Cement has recorded a loss of US$18.0m in the first three months of 2020, compared to a profit of US$11.0m in the first three months of 2019. Sales fell by 27% year-on-year to US$80.6m from US$110m in 2019. Domestic demand in relation to Egypt’s production overcapacity fell in March 2020 due to the coronavirus outbreak. Daily News Egypt has reported that the second quarter 2020 results will carry greater losses for Suez Cement due to coronavirus lockdown measures and seasonal factors such as Ramadan, with cement volumes down by 27% year-on-year in May 2020.

Australia: James Hardie has revised its guidance for the quarter ending 30 June 2020, the fourth quarter of the Australian fiscal year 2020, following “improved housing market activity, particularly in North America.” Australian Associated Press – Financial News has reported that James Hardie has revised its North American fibre cement boards volumes growth estimate to 1% year-on-year from a 3% drop previously. It expects Australian volumes to remain constant year-on-year, as previously predicted, and European volumes in the quarter to fall by 13%, rather than by 16%.

The Construction Products Association (CPA) has just forecast a 25% drop in construction output for 2020 in the UK due to Covid-19. And this is the optimistic prediction! It blamed the decline, which is said to be the sharpest ever recorded, on the country’s coronavirus-related lockdown. 60% of planned construction output was lost in April 2020 due to social distancing measures. This compares to a 6.5% decline in gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2020 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April 2020 for the UK. OneStone Consulting’s Joe Harder in his Covid-19 Impact Analysis CIC 2025 report has forecast a 12.7% decrease in European cement production. Readers should keep in mind that construction output, GDP and cement production are all connected but not necessarily directly related.

Further details of note from the CPA include a direct link between the strength of lockdown measures and work lost, as well as differences between types of activity. So, for example, more construction output (in percentage terms) was reported lost in Scotland, where tighter lockdown measures were implemented. On the latter point, more output was lost in residential construction compared to non-residential with a similar trend reported in the repair, maintenance and improvement sector, again worsened in the residential part of this market. The sector that suffered the least was non-residential repair and maintenance as work on, currently, mostly deserted buildings and infrastructure was prioritised. One example of this may have been Aggregate Industries, the UK subsidiary of LafargeHolcim, which said this week that it had completed major works on the A14, a major regional trunk road, ahead of schedule. It didn’t directly make the link in its press release but quiet roads would have helped.

The CPA is touting the now-familiar range of letter-shaped economic recession shapes in the report, including ‘V’, ‘W’ and the dreaded ‘U’. However, the CPA’s Economics Director Noble Francis was more confident that infrastructure projects would bounce back fastest due to favourable investment cycles in utilities, government support for its high-speed railway scheme HS2 and, “greater ability to implement safe distancing for workers on larger sites.”

That last point ties in nicely with the operational guidance that the Mineral Product Association (MPA), the UK’s trade association for the heavy building material sector in the UK, released last week. This is all crucial information on a comprehensive and detailed scale along the lines released in other countries.

Much of this will be becoming second nature to cement industry workers and/or will be familiar to anyone who has watched US consultant John Kline discuss these issues on Global Cement Live. Yet there are some points worth discussing here such as ‘Avoid Distraction.’ This one’s all about remembering to keep in mind existing health and safety practices alongside all the coronavirus-related ones. All the usual health and safety regulations and advice remain in place and in some ways become even more important as there may be fewer staff working on socially-distanced sites, or first responders may be otherwise busy elsewhere. Another point from the MPA’s guidance is to ‘Provide More Time,’ which acknowledges that working with coronavirus measures will require more time. Other implications from a business changed by coronavirus are things like notifying the police when sites are closed and considering further security for such sites to minimise risk of theft. A lot of this stuff seems obvious but it’s easy to miss things.

For a recent review of the UK cement industry readers should refer to Edwin Trout’s feature in the June 2020 issue of Global Cement Magazine. One change since it was published has been Cemex’s proposal to mothball its 0.8Mt/yr South Ferriby integrated plant in Lincolnshire. The cement producer says it is not related to coronavirus but if the CPA’s predictions are accurate then it will make it that much harder to keep the plant open.

Everyone’s hoping for a ‘V’ shaped recovery from the coronavirus downturn in the UK and everywhere else around the world. Boots on the ground operating advice like that issued by the MPA and others is part of how the construction materials industries can work towards achieving this.

UK: The Construction Products Association (CPA) has predicted a 25% year-on-year decline in total national construction output in 2020. It said that the coronavirus lockdown resulted in the loss of 60% of planned construction output in April 2020, included 85% of homebuilding.

CPA economics director Noble Francis said, “Even under this most optimistic of scenarios, the country’s construction activity would suffer its sharpest fall ever recorded. Returns to site in May 2020 will focus on partially completed developments rather than new starts as house builders are expected to be cautious given uncertainty regarding demand. This uncertainty will also keep the recovery muted in commercial offices, industrial factories and the most severely-affected sub-sector, commercial retail.” He added, “A more positive outlook is expected for infrastructure activity thanks to a greater ability to implement safe distancing for workers on larger sites but also, vitally, thanks to HS2 being given the go ahead to proceed. An increase in activity from the five-year investment programmes within regulated sectors such as water and sewerage, roads and rail also adds to this more positive story.”

France: Vicat has reported first-quarter sales of Euro615m in 2020, up by 7% year-on-year from Euro600m in the first quarter of 2019. Cement sales grew by 5.5% to Euro319m (52% of total sales), up by 5.5% year-on-year from Euro302m.

Vicat chair and CEO Guy Sidos said, “The Group's performance over the first quarter of 2020 was solid despite a sharp slowdown at the end of the period in France, India and Italy.” In spite of the coronavirus crisis, “Industrial and commercial activity was maintained on almost all sites, in line with market evolutions.” Sidos says that the group expects ‘a significant impact on first-half results’ in 2020.

Australia/New Zealand/US: Ireland-based James Hardie has announced the planned closure of three of its fibre cement board plants. The Cooroy, Queensland plant in Australia, Summerville, South Carolina plant in the US and Penrose, Auckland plant in New Zealand will close permanently in mid-2020, resulting in a total of 375 job cuts. The NZ Herald newspaper has reported that the decision to shut the plants came about due to the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economic situation. James Hardie will now supply the New Zealand market from its Carole Park, Queensland and Rosehill, New South Wales plants. James Hardie also closed its Siglingen, Baden-Württemberg plant in Germany on a temporary basis, ‘in order to better match supply and demand in the European market.’

James Hardie revised its 2020 profit forecast to US$355m, down by 4.1% from US$370m.

Indonesia: Japan-based Taiheiyo Cement has announced its acquisition of a 15% stake in state-owned Semen Indonesia subsidiary Solusi Bangun Indonesia for between US$186m and US$232m, subject to the terms of a partnership agreement with Semen Indonesia.

Under the ‘2020 Mid-Term Management Plan,’ Taiheiyo Cement says that it aims to ‘become a corporate group with a strong presence in the Pacific Rim.’ Its partnership with Semen Indonesia is part of Taiheiyo Cement’s response to a forecasted long-term decline in domestic cement demand in Japan.

In the first quarter of 2020 Semen Indonesia sold 9.36Mt of cement, up by 7.0% year-on-year from 8.74Mt in the corresponding period of 2019. InsiderStories News has reported that domestic demand in the period fell by 4.9% to 14.9Mt from 15.7Mt, while exports fell by 2.5% to 1.39Mt from 1.42Mt but rose by 6.2% on a month-by-month basis in March 2020 to 3.09Mt from 2.91Mt in February 2020. April 2020’s cement sales are expected to be lower due to the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak.

Russia: Sibirskiy Cement produced 525,000t of cement at its three plants in the first quarter of 2020, up by 14% year-on-year from 460,000t in the corresponding period of 2019. The 3.7Mt/yr Topkinskiy Cement plant produced 388,000t, up by 21% year-on-year from 320,000t; the 1.1Mt/yr Krasnoyarsk Cement plant produced 97,600t, down by 17% year-on-year from 118,000t and the Timluy Cement plant produced 39,600t, up by 73% year-on-year from 22,9000t. Sibirskiy Cement’s first vice president Gennady Rasskazov said, “Cement consumption in Siberia, Buryatia and the Trans-Baikal Territory reached 845,000t in the first three months of 2020, up by 15% year-on-year from 735,000t.” He said that April 2020 has brought a ‘significant decrease in demand,’ and revised Sibirskiy Cement’s projected 2020 sales to an estimated decrease of 7-10% from 3-5% growth. Over a two-and-a-half-month period, Rasskazov predicted a 30-50% sales fall.