Displaying items by tag: Forecast

China: Analysts expect the profitability of China's leading cement producers to weaken in 2012 due to slowing demand and falling prices.

SWS Research analyst Ye Rong expects the earnings of China's second-biggest cement producer, Anhui Conch Cement, to plummet by half in the first quarter, because the Yangtze River Delta, where most of Anhui Conch's sales are based, has seen cement price drops of 5% to 20% since the Lunar New Year, on 23 January 2012. Citic Securities forecasts the Hong Kong-listed firm's net profit will drop by 40% in the first quarter.

The net profit of Anhui Conch soared by 88.1% to US$1.84bn in 2011, while revenue surged by 41% to US$7.71bn. The state-owned enterprise's results for 2011 were in line with market expectations, wrote Luo Yang in a Nomura report. However, Anhui Conch's profit margin was likely to deteriorate in 2012, due to downward pressure on selling prices, rising costs and decelerating productivity, Luo wrote. "Under severe overcapacity, the company is subject to higher price risk in comparison with most of its peers."

Anhui Conch chairman Guo Wensan said the industry would face unfavourable factors in 2012, such as a slowdown in investment growth, regulation of the real-estate sector and rising energy prices. Anhui Conch plans a capital expenditure of US$1.27bn in 2012 less than the US$1.44bn in 2011.

In an exception to this trend, mainland China's biggest cement producer, China National Building Materials, announced it expected net profit to jump more than 100% from 2011. However, JP Morgan expects prices and profit per tonne for most mainland cement producers in 2012 to be up to 10% lower than 2011, and has trimmed its earning estimates for most listed cement companies. The growth in the mainland's cement consumption would be 5% to 8% in 2012, against 11% in 2011, the China Cement Association said.

The net profit of China National Materials (Sinoma) rose by 32.78% to US$231m in 2011, while turnover grew by 14% to US$8.04bn. The Hong Kong-listed firm's cement sales surged by 40% to US$3.21bn in 2011, while sales of its hi-tech materials increased by 7.7% to US$981m and its cement equipment business dipped by 0.1% to US$3.85bn.

Sinoma's net profit in 2011 was 10% below market consensus and 11% below Nomura's estimate. This was mainly due to much lower top-line growth and a disappointing margin performance. The state-owned firm's biggest business sector, cement equipment, suffered a small drop in 2011, because China's fixed-asset investment in cement fell by 8.3% in 2011, Luo wrote. "We expect it to further decrease by 15% in 2012." Sinoma's cement prices were under significant downward pressure, especially in Xinjiang province, due to worsening overcapacity, Luo warned.

Japan: Taiheiyo Cement is aiming for a group operating profit of around US$600m in the 2014 fiscal year, an increase of 90% on its projection for the current fiscal year, which ends on 31 March 2012. The target will be included in an upcoming midterm business plan that runs through to March 2015. The underlying assumptions include total domestic demand rising by 4% to 43Mt/yr. Taiheiyo Cement anticipates a 2Mt/yr boost from earthquake rebuilding.

In its domestic business, the Japanese market leader is likely to seek a 10-20% increase in its profit that will be underpinned by reconstruction demand. The operations are expected to give a profit of more than US$360m for the current fiscal year.

Taiheiyo has reported that cement production at its Ofunato plant in Iwate Prefecture has returned to about 70% of the levels seen before the 11 March 2011 earthquake and tsunami disaster. The company is scrambling to repair the production base with an eye toward returning the facility to full capacity at the end of June 2012. In the autumn the firm will start producing high-tensile cement for use in repairing infrastructure in the disaster-hit Tohoku region.

Taiheyo Cement will also shake up its sluggish US business, which is on track for an operating loss of US$108m in the current fiscal year. On top of personnel reductions, the company will continue to sell land and make other downsizing efforts. An operating profit of US$120m for US operations is targeted by the 2014 fiscal year.

Japan: Taiheiyo Cement Corp. has released interim results for the first nine months of its current fiscal year, which ended on 31 December 2011. The results showed a group revenue of US$7.0bn, slightly up on the first nine months of the previous fiscal year.

Its operating profit was reported as US$242m, more than double the US$111m seen in the previous fiscal year. Its pretax profit was US$134m and its net profit for the period was US$14.2m, a turnaround from a US$72.1m loss made in 2010.

Taiheiyo forecast that the whole of the 2012 fiscal year (ending 31 March 2012), would see a revenue of US$9.3bn, an operating profit of US$350m and a net profit US$146m.

Taiheiyo's results come after a decision by Morgan Stanley MUFJ Securities to increase its rating for the Japanese cement sector to 'attractive,' the highest ranking on its three-tier scale. Shares in major companies such as Taiheiyo and Sumitomo Osaka Cement jumped sharply with the new rating.

Analysts at the brokerage said that profits at cement firms will rise in line with their ongoing efforts to cut costs. It also said that higher prices, an increasingly balanced supply and demand relationship and rising demand related to earthquake reconstruction efforts will also support profits in the cement industry.

The analysts also said that investors have undervalued shares of Sumitomo Osaka Cement and Taiheiyo Cement despite expectations that their earnings will improve in the 2012 fiscal year.

US: According to the latest research report by RNCOS, US Cement Industry Analysis, an improvement in infrastructure spending along with growing domestic demand from almost all the prominent industry verticals will enable the cement consumption to grow at a compound annual growth rate of around 8% during 2011-2015. The cement industry in the US forms an important part of its economy and although recent years have been quite discouraging for the industry, the country sustained its position as the third largest cement consumer globally.

The RNCOS report highlights that the US will remain as one of the world's largest markets for OPC, with imports to fulfil the shortfall between domestic capacity and total US consumption. It expects that housing construction will boost cement demand in the US over the period to 2015 and says that biogas fuel is fast emerging as an alternative fuel for reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in the country.

US: Despite recovery momentum in late 2010, the US economy is again in a slowdown, according to the most recent economic forecast by the Portland Cement Association (PCA), which says that the slowdown will weaken construction activity and restrain gains in cement consumption until 2013.

The PCA downgraded its cement consumption growth forecast to 0.2% for 2011, 0.4% in 2012 with a significant 16.4% increase in 2013. According to the report, uncertainty regarding highway spending legislation and government policy related to the debt crisis will cause a negative drag on construction activity for the next few years.

"Our previous forecast had assumed the new highway bill would be 20% higher than existing levels but we now believe the funding will remain at current levels," said PCA chief economist Edward Sullivan. "A lack of highway funding and reduced consumer, business and bank confidence due to the debt crisis will all slow down construction recovery."

According to Sullivan, economic recovery from the recession will be led by a strengthening of confidence in these areas. Without a sustained improvement, private sector fundamentals such as job creation, investment and ease in lending standards will not be released in full force and commit the economy to a path of improvement.