Displaying items by tag: Forecast

Vietnam: Vietnam’s cement sales are predicted to reach 95Mt by 2020 says Nguyen Quang Cung, chairman of the Vietnam Cement Association (VNCA). The total will include 80Mt/yr of domestic sales and 15Mt/yr of clinker and cement exports, according to the Vietnam News Agency.

Vietnam’s domestic cement sales are predicted to rise by 5 - 5.5Mt/yr to hit 80Mt by 2020. The country’s cement and clinker exports will stay at 15Mt/yr, Cung added, noting that Vietnam will be able to satisfy the demand. He also predicted that the country’s cement sales will reach 77Mt in 2016, including of 60Mt of domestic sales and 15.5 – 17Mt of exports.

The Ministry of Construction previously forecast that Vietnam’s sales of cement and clinker would rise 4 - 7% year-on-year to 75 – 77Mt in 2016 despite on-going economic problems.

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has confirmed its projection released earlier in 2016 that the US cement industry is on target to see annual cement consumption grow by 4%. Cement consumption through to the end of the year is expected to continue at a steady pace, with additional demand coming from several areas, including moderate residential spending and, to a lesser extent, growth in non-residential and public construction activity. Additionally, the PCA says that favourable monetary policy from the Federal Reserve will support construction activity for the next two years.

“A key factor for continued growth for the cement industry is steady growth in construction spending, also projected to be up 4%,” said PCA Chief Economist and Senior Vice President Edward J Sullivan. “This is very much in line with the overall US economy’s slow-albeit-positive growth path.”

Sullivan noted that PCA has forecasted growth despite some conflicting economic indicators from elsewhere in the economy. “Despite some ups and downs in the US economy, the underlying economic fundamentals are solid.” For example, PCA noted the labour market has consistently seen a net monthly increase of roughly 200,000 jobs, pushing the unemployment rate below 5%. PCA also projects real GDP will grow by 1.5% in 2016, and by 2.2% in 2017.

Russia: Filaret Galchev, the owner of Eurocement, expects that demand for cement in Russia will fall by 8% - 10% in 2016 after falling 12% in 2015. The cement producer will sell about 20Mt of cement in Russia and about 3.5Mt in other regions including Uzbekistan and Ukraine in 2016. He added that average production costs at the group will produce cement at around US$25/t.

In an interview with Rossiya 24 television reported upon by Interfax, Galchev also described Eurocement’s sale of its 6.1% stake in LafargeHolcim in February 2016 as ‘unexpected’. The Russian cement producer sold its share in LafargeHolcim after they lost nearly half of their value in six months.

"No, I did not expect it. We analysed the situation for a long time, but that is the decision that was made," said Galchev. He added that he had no issues with Sberbank, the Russian bank that restructured Eurocement’s debt after the sale of the shares in LafargeHolcim.

Originally Eurocement was a shareholder in Holcim and it received a stake in LafargeHolcim after that company was formed in a merger. The stake was subsequently transferred to Sberbank of Russia in January 2016 after the shares, which Galchev had acquired with financing from Bank of America, lost over 40% of their value in half a year. At the beginning of February 2016, Sberbank sold the 6.12% LafargeHolcim stake to investors from the UK, Switzerland, the US and other countries.

Pakistan: The Pakistan cement industry plans to invest up to US$1bn towards production capacity growth of 10Mt/yr by 2018. The growth will be targeted at the growing real estate market and expected China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects said Mohammad Ali Tabba, chairman of the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) in comments to the Business Recorder.

"Four companies have already announced their plans in this regard. Cherat Cement is going to do it from next year, and then Attock Cement, DG Khan Cement and Lucky Cement will materialise their plans," said Tabba.

He added that at present the country has a production capacity of 46Mt/yr, a demand of 38Mt/yr and a capacity utilisation rate of 80 – 85%. His argument for cement industry growth rests on the industry hitting this capacity utilisation rate. The last time a significant increase in industry capacity was made was in 2005 -2006 when it was increased from 17.9Mt/yr to 42.3Mt/yr in 2008 – 2009.

US: Cement consumption in the US will rise by 3.4% in 2016, according to a report from the Portland Cement Association (PCA). The forecast has been revised down from the PCA’s previous forecast of 5%. The PCA expects cement consumption in 2017 to grow by 4.3%.

“The new forecast reflects the implementation of the new multi-year highway bill, Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) Act,” said Edward Sullivan, PCA chief economist and group vice-president. “However, our forecast still reflects a deterioration in global growth conditions, an even weaker projection for oil prices, and a tightening of US monetary policy.”

China: China Tianrui Group Cement has said that it expects that its 2015 net profit will drop by more than 30% year-on-year in 2015. It has blamed the downturn on China's economic slowdown that has reduced demand for cement and lowered the selling price. The cement producer didn’t release a figure for its expected net profit in 2015 but it reported a net profit of US$86.6m in 2014. It intends to release its full financial results for 2015 at the end of March 2016.

US: Domestic cement consumption will grow by as much as 5% in 2016, according to a report from the Portland Cement Association (PCA). Edward Sullivan, PCA chief economist noted that the ‘the fundamentals of our economy are sound’ at the 2016 World of Concrete event.

"With the recently passed federal highway bill and continued net increases in new jobs, we see clear indications that positive growth will continue," said Sullivan. The PCA's Market Intelligence Group will release an updated report on US cement consumption in March 2016.

The PCA has launched a year of celebrations to mark the organisation’s 100th anniversary.

China: Asia Cement expects a loss for 2015 due to lower product selling prices and foreign exchange losses from US Dollar-denominated loans. The producer reported a net profit of US$120m in 2014. Its financial results for 2015 will be released by the end of March 2015.

Germany: HeidelbergCement expects the falling oil prices to have a positive effect on its earnings in 2015, according to a company spokesperson. Low fuel prices are expected to have a positive impact on HeidelbergCement's energy costs. It generates as much as 80% of its revenue in oil-importing countries, which should further improve its results.

US: Despite a late start to the construction season and weaker than expected housing start numbers, a recently released report from the Portland Cement Association (PCA) shows that cement consumption in the USA will meet 2014 forecast expectations.

The PCA's cement forecast remains essentially unchanged since the September 2014 forecast. "The United States' cement market is expected to grow by 8.2% in 2014, followed by similar rates of growth in 2015 and 2016," said PCA Chief Economist and Group Vice President Edward Sullivan. "However, minor adjustments have been made regarding the construction sub-sectors. Housing starts, for example, have been trimmed slightly compared to forecasts released earlier in 2014."

While single-family housing starts are not reaching projected levels, the report indicates a new emphasis on multi-family starts. Demographic trends and strict mortgage standards are pushing more potential homebuyers into rental units.

Additionally, the oil price environment has changed significantly since summer 2014 and these new impacts have been integrated into the forecast projections for the paving sector. Going forward, Sullivan noted that the underlying economic fundamentals are strengthening and are reflected in the labour market. Sustained gains in monthly job creation, stronger state and local tax receipts, more favourable return on investments for commercial building and stronger household formation can lead to stronger construction spending in 2015.