Displaying items by tag: Forecast

US: On 4 February 2020, PCA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Ed Sullivan predicted that US cement demand would rise by 1.7% in 2020 and may rise by as much as 2.7% if residential construction exceeds expectations. Sullivan stated that demand would maintain moderate growth through at least to 2022. “As long as the economy continues to grow and create jobs, the economy will remain on solid ground and continue to support cyclical portions of the cement market,” he said.

Vietnam: Maintaining exports will be critical for the Vietnamese cement industry amid rising production output and anticipated sluggish domestic sales in 2020, according to Nguyễn Quang Cung, President of the Vietnam Cement Association (VCA).

Cung also reported that two new cement plants will go into operation during 2020: a 2.5Mt/yr plant in Tân Thắng Commune in the central province of Nghệ, and a 4.6Mt/yr plant in Bỉm Sơn Commune, Thanh Hóa. These new facilities will give the domestic cement industry a total production capacity of more than 100Mt/yr, with local demand estimated to be closer to 70Mt/yr. “Maintaining exports will be critical for the cement industry this year,” said Cung, but domestic projects are likely to remain ‘sluggish’ due to stagnant infrastructure projects.

Over the medium term, Cung said that cement exports would fall to 25Mt in 2021 form 34Mt in 2020, based on an expectation that domestic sales will increase.

Brazil: Brazil has reported a growth in annual sales volumes for the first time since 2014. Producers sold 54.5Mt of cement – up by 3.5% from 52.8Mt in 2018 and exceeding SNIC president Paulo Camillo Penna’s January 2019 forecast of 3.0% growth. Penna has predicted a 3.6% increase to 56.5Mt in 2020. Valor newspaper has reported that Penna bases his assumption on favourable interest rates and low inflation of the Brazilian real as well as the government’s implementation of anticipated industrial policies favourable to production.

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has releases a two-year forecast of moderate growth in cement consumption between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021. It projected growth of 1.7% in 2020, slowing slightly to 1.4% in 2021, corresponding to 2.1% and 1.7% GDP growth annually. Speaking at the 38th International Cement Seminar in Atlanta, PCA senior vice president and chief economist Ed Sullivan projected consumption growth of 1.6% - 2.3% in 2019 against GDP growth of 2.4% over the period, with consumption bolstered by the 2018 Federal Budget, which allowed for US$20bn in infrastructure investments in 2018 and 2019. He noted growing uncertainty (21% in 2019) with the expiry of the ‘pent-up demand zip that invigorates the initial stages of economic recovery long past.’

Rising house prices and mild inflation signify the continuation of the US economy’s longest expansion post-World War Two, with 161,000 net new jobs generated so far in 2019. With a forecasted population increase of 60m by 2040, US cement producers appears still have their work cut out in keeping up with demand.

Tunisia: Carthage Cement has announced a general improvement in its financial indicators as it forecast a gross operating income of US$25m for 2019. This would represent a 123% improvement from US$11.2m in 2018. Ibrahim Sana, Carthage Cement’s CEO anticipates a gross operating income as high as US$55m in 2023, with a targeted turnover of US$140m.

The company also announced a 0.1Mt export contract for cement to be sent to Spain.

Australia: James Hardie Industries, the world's largest fibre cement producer, highlighted the potential for higher earnings in the 2020 fiscal year, citing an improved performance for its North American fibre cement segment.

The company said it expected full-year adjusted net operating profit to be US$221-248m, compared with US$204m a year earlier.

"Our North America Fiber Cement segment delivered very good volume growth in a down market while generating an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margin at the top end of our target range," said CEO Jack Truong in a statement.

India: CARE Ratings has identified Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Rajasthan, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh as the key states expected to lead cement production capacity additions over the next decade to 2030. In a sector report the credits agency forecast growth of 120Mt in this period. It noted that Rajasthan, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana were among the top states in installed capacity at present. It said that the southern region led with highest installed capacity of 33% followed by the North, East, West and Central regions. Rajasthan, Karnataka, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra are among the states with highest limestone resources.

India is the world’s second largest second producer but its per capita consumption is low, at 210kg. This is well below the global average of around 575kg/capita.

Australia: Adelaide Brighton says that it expects its net profit, after tax excluding property, to be no higher than US$90m in 2019. This is a further reduction on the forecast of around US$110m it made in May 2019. It has blamed poor residential and civil construction markets, continued competition in Queensland and South Australia, growing raw material costs and fees related to a cancelled import order.

India: Credit rating agency ICRA expects that cement demand growth will fall to 7% year-on-year in the first quarter of the 2019 – 2020 financial year from 13% in the previous year. It has blamed this on a slowdown in infrastructure projects due to the general election and resulting labour shortages. However, higher cement prices and lower input costs - including power, fuel and distribution expenses – are forecast to improve profits. Cement consumption is predicted to increase in the third quarter due to housing demand and pickup in infrastructure schemes.

The agency also said that around 18 – 20Mt/yr of cement production capacity would be added in the 2019 – 2020 year. This will be from a variety of integrated and grinding projects. This is below the projected demand growth of 24Mt/yr but overall sector production overcapacity is expected to continue at around 71%.

Brazil: Data from the National Union of Cement Industry (SNIC) shows that cement sales rose slightly to 12.7Mt in the first quarter of 2019 compared to 12.6Mt in the same period in 2018. Regional sales fell slightly to 6Mt in the southeast of the country including the major markets of Minas Gerais, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. However, most of the other regions reported growth, particularly the centre-west. SNIC president Paulo Camillo Penna said that March 2019’s performance was better than expected and that it was forecasting growth of 3% in 2019.