Displaying items by tag: Forecast

The Construction Products Association (CPA) has just forecast a 25% drop in construction output for 2020 in the UK due to Covid-19. And this is the optimistic prediction! It blamed the decline, which is said to be the sharpest ever recorded, on the country’s coronavirus-related lockdown. 60% of planned construction output was lost in April 2020 due to social distancing measures. This compares to a 6.5% decline in gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2020 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April 2020 for the UK. OneStone Consulting’s Joe Harder in his Covid-19 Impact Analysis CIC 2025 report has forecast a 12.7% decrease in European cement production. Readers should keep in mind that construction output, GDP and cement production are all connected but not necessarily directly related.

Further details of note from the CPA include a direct link between the strength of lockdown measures and work lost, as well as differences between types of activity. So, for example, more construction output (in percentage terms) was reported lost in Scotland, where tighter lockdown measures were implemented. On the latter point, more output was lost in residential construction compared to non-residential with a similar trend reported in the repair, maintenance and improvement sector, again worsened in the residential part of this market. The sector that suffered the least was non-residential repair and maintenance as work on, currently, mostly deserted buildings and infrastructure was prioritised. One example of this may have been Aggregate Industries, the UK subsidiary of LafargeHolcim, which said this week that it had completed major works on the A14, a major regional trunk road, ahead of schedule. It didn’t directly make the link in its press release but quiet roads would have helped.

The CPA is touting the now-familiar range of letter-shaped economic recession shapes in the report, including ‘V’, ‘W’ and the dreaded ‘U’. However, the CPA’s Economics Director Noble Francis was more confident that infrastructure projects would bounce back fastest due to favourable investment cycles in utilities, government support for its high-speed railway scheme HS2 and, “greater ability to implement safe distancing for workers on larger sites.”

That last point ties in nicely with the operational guidance that the Mineral Product Association (MPA), the UK’s trade association for the heavy building material sector in the UK, released last week. This is all crucial information on a comprehensive and detailed scale along the lines released in other countries.

Much of this will be becoming second nature to cement industry workers and/or will be familiar to anyone who has watched US consultant John Kline discuss these issues on Global Cement Live. Yet there are some points worth discussing here such as ‘Avoid Distraction.’ This one’s all about remembering to keep in mind existing health and safety practices alongside all the coronavirus-related ones. All the usual health and safety regulations and advice remain in place and in some ways become even more important as there may be fewer staff working on socially-distanced sites, or first responders may be otherwise busy elsewhere. Another point from the MPA’s guidance is to ‘Provide More Time,’ which acknowledges that working with coronavirus measures will require more time. Other implications from a business changed by coronavirus are things like notifying the police when sites are closed and considering further security for such sites to minimise risk of theft. A lot of this stuff seems obvious but it’s easy to miss things.

For a recent review of the UK cement industry readers should refer to Edwin Trout’s feature in the June 2020 issue of Global Cement Magazine. One change since it was published has been Cemex’s proposal to mothball its 0.8Mt/yr South Ferriby integrated plant in Lincolnshire. The cement producer says it is not related to coronavirus but if the CPA’s predictions are accurate then it will make it that much harder to keep the plant open.

Everyone’s hoping for a ‘V’ shaped recovery from the coronavirus downturn in the UK and everywhere else around the world. Boots on the ground operating advice like that issued by the MPA and others is part of how the construction materials industries can work towards achieving this.

UK: The Construction Products Association (CPA) has predicted a 25% year-on-year decline in total national construction output in 2020. It said that the coronavirus lockdown resulted in the loss of 60% of planned construction output in April 2020, included 85% of homebuilding.

CPA economics director Noble Francis said, “Even under this most optimistic of scenarios, the country’s construction activity would suffer its sharpest fall ever recorded. Returns to site in May 2020 will focus on partially completed developments rather than new starts as house builders are expected to be cautious given uncertainty regarding demand. This uncertainty will also keep the recovery muted in commercial offices, industrial factories and the most severely-affected sub-sector, commercial retail.” He added, “A more positive outlook is expected for infrastructure activity thanks to a greater ability to implement safe distancing for workers on larger sites but also, vitally, thanks to HS2 being given the go ahead to proceed. An increase in activity from the five-year investment programmes within regulated sectors such as water and sewerage, roads and rail also adds to this more positive story.”

France: Vicat has reported first-quarter sales of Euro615m in 2020, up by 7% year-on-year from Euro600m in the first quarter of 2019. Cement sales grew by 5.5% to Euro319m (52% of total sales), up by 5.5% year-on-year from Euro302m.

Vicat chair and CEO Guy Sidos said, “The Group's performance over the first quarter of 2020 was solid despite a sharp slowdown at the end of the period in France, India and Italy.” In spite of the coronavirus crisis, “Industrial and commercial activity was maintained on almost all sites, in line with market evolutions.” Sidos says that the group expects ‘a significant impact on first-half results’ in 2020.

Australia/New Zealand/US: Ireland-based James Hardie has announced the planned closure of three of its fibre cement board plants. The Cooroy, Queensland plant in Australia, Summerville, South Carolina plant in the US and Penrose, Auckland plant in New Zealand will close permanently in mid-2020, resulting in a total of 375 job cuts. The NZ Herald newspaper has reported that the decision to shut the plants came about due to the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economic situation. James Hardie will now supply the New Zealand market from its Carole Park, Queensland and Rosehill, New South Wales plants. James Hardie also closed its Siglingen, Baden-Württemberg plant in Germany on a temporary basis, ‘in order to better match supply and demand in the European market.’

James Hardie revised its 2020 profit forecast to US$355m, down by 4.1% from US$370m.

Indonesia: Japan-based Taiheiyo Cement has announced its acquisition of a 15% stake in state-owned Semen Indonesia subsidiary Solusi Bangun Indonesia for between US$186m and US$232m, subject to the terms of a partnership agreement with Semen Indonesia.

Under the ‘2020 Mid-Term Management Plan,’ Taiheiyo Cement says that it aims to ‘become a corporate group with a strong presence in the Pacific Rim.’ Its partnership with Semen Indonesia is part of Taiheiyo Cement’s response to a forecasted long-term decline in domestic cement demand in Japan.

In the first quarter of 2020 Semen Indonesia sold 9.36Mt of cement, up by 7.0% year-on-year from 8.74Mt in the corresponding period of 2019. InsiderStories News has reported that domestic demand in the period fell by 4.9% to 14.9Mt from 15.7Mt, while exports fell by 2.5% to 1.39Mt from 1.42Mt but rose by 6.2% on a month-by-month basis in March 2020 to 3.09Mt from 2.91Mt in February 2020. April 2020’s cement sales are expected to be lower due to the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak.

Russia: Sibirskiy Cement produced 525,000t of cement at its three plants in the first quarter of 2020, up by 14% year-on-year from 460,000t in the corresponding period of 2019. The 3.7Mt/yr Topkinskiy Cement plant produced 388,000t, up by 21% year-on-year from 320,000t; the 1.1Mt/yr Krasnoyarsk Cement plant produced 97,600t, down by 17% year-on-year from 118,000t and the Timluy Cement plant produced 39,600t, up by 73% year-on-year from 22,9000t. Sibirskiy Cement’s first vice president Gennady Rasskazov said, “Cement consumption in Siberia, Buryatia and the Trans-Baikal Territory reached 845,000t in the first three months of 2020, up by 15% year-on-year from 735,000t.” He said that April 2020 has brought a ‘significant decrease in demand,’ and revised Sibirskiy Cement’s projected 2020 sales to an estimated decrease of 7-10% from 3-5% growth. Over a two-and-a-half-month period, Rasskazov predicted a 30-50% sales fall.

As India reaches two weeks into its 21 day lockdown to combat coronavirus, the financial analysts are starting to publish their forecasts as to what the effects will be for the cement industry. The results are gloomy, with demand predicted to drop by up to 25% in the financial year to March 2021 by one analyst and 40% in March 2020 alone by another.

Graph 1: Indian cement production, rolling annual by month, January 2018 – February 2020. Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

The graph above sets the scene for what may be to come by showing the state of production in India in recent years. From early 2018 it picked up by 17% to 337Mt by March 2019 and stayed around there through the rest of year before breeching 340Mt in January and February 2020. The (relative) lull in production growth in 2019 was blamed by some analysts on the general election in mid-2019 and then the monsoon rains. In summary the market was improving and seemed set for further growth in 2020. Alas, this does not now seem to be the case.

Looking ahead, Rating’s agency CRISIL has published a research paper on the topic and here are some of the highlights. They break the damage down into two separate scenarios. The first, where the social distancing measures last until the end of April, cause a 10 – 15% fall in cement demand with the pain limited to the first quarter of the Indian financial year, which starts on 1 April. The second, where distancing measures last until June, cause a 20 – 25% decrease in demand, with the problems extended into the second quarter. Salient points that it makes about the anticipated recovery include a delay in infrastructure spending due to the government diverting funds to healthcare, reduced private and real estate markets and a divide between state-led affordable housing schemes in urban and rural areas. It pins its hopes on rural housing to grab demand first, followed by key infrastructure projects, especially transport schemes.

Examining the cement producers directly, CRISIL reckons that prices will fall in the face of dropping demand but that power, fuel and freight costs are all expected to fall also. Profit margins are forecast to drop compared to the 2019 – 2020 financial year but still remain higher than the two previous ones. Finally, it looked at the credit profiles of 23 companies, representing over 70% of installed production capacity. Together they had a total debt of US$7bn. It flagged up four of these companies as having high debt/earnings ratios and five with low interest coverage. The latter were described as ‘small regional firms with weak cash balances.’

That’s one view on what may happen but two recent general industry news stories offer snapshots on what may be to come for the Indian market. The first is an immediate consequence of a nationwide lockdown in a country with a population of 1.3bn and a low cost of labour. 400 construction workers at a grinding plant build for Ramco Cements in Haridaspur, Odisha, were stranded at the site when the quarantine restrictions stopped them travelling home to Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. They took up residence at the building site and then protested when the food ran out. This point about migrant labour is noteworthy because how the Indian government relaxes the lockdown could have massive consequences upon how the construction industry recovers. A possible parallel from elsewhere in the world is the slowdown effect the Saudi Arabian cement industry suffered in late 2013 when the government took action against illegal foreign workers in the construction industry.

The second news story to keep in mind is the annual results from refractory manufacturer RHI Magnesita this week. It reported growing revenue from its cement and lime customers in 2019 but it blamed a weaker market in Europe on producers stockpiling product due to tightening magnesite and dolomite raw material availability. The takeaway here is that if supply chains supporting the cement sector and the rest of the construction industry in India at the moment are affected by the coronavirus outbreak, and government action to stop it, then there may be consequences later on. So far Global Cement hasn’t seen anything like this but the preparation for coronavirus advice from industry expert John Kilne has been to indentify and secure medium term needs, including refractory and critical spare parts and to consider potential disruption to supply chains.

In terms of what happens next once the lockdown ends in India (and other countries), one media commentator has described the response to coronavrius as the ‘hammer and the dance.’ The hammer is the economy-busting measures many governments have implemented to stop local epidemics. The dance is/are the measures that countries are using before and after an outbreak to keep it suppressed until a vaccine is developed. The worry for building material producers is how much the ‘dance’ disrupts business over the next year. All eyes will be on the East Asian producer market figures for the first quarter to see how this plays out.

India: Cement manufacturers in India have seen a significant turn in fortunes since the start of 2020 due to the ongoing coronavirus outbreak. Producers, which had been raising prices and selling high volumes at the start of the year, are seeing a slump in demand in the wake of a nation-wide lockdown that began in mid-March 2020. Motilal Oswal Financial Services estimates that cement sales in March 2020 will be 40% lower than those seen in March 2019. Even after the lockdown ends, there will be severe knock-on effects for the remainder of India’s 2021 Fiscal Year (FY2021), which ends on 31 March 2021. This is expected to be due to weak economic growth, government cuts in spending on infrastructure and lower real estate demand.

Indeed, ratings agency CRISIL expects cement demand in India to contract by at least 10 - 15% in FY2021 compared to FY2020, with a ‘worst-case scenario’ of up to a 25% reduction.

The only respite that cement manufacturers may see is on the logistics side. With lower production volumes, transporters are offering more concessions on freight rates that will further help with costs, according to analysts. Low oil prices will benefit producers, while Petcoke prices may also remain relatively low.

India: Several cement producers have responded to the coronavirus pandemic with plant closures. Reuters has reported that India Cements has temporarily closed all of its plants. JK Lakshmi Cement has suspended cement production at its 4.2Mt/yr integrated plant in Jaykaypuram, Rajasthan and at three grinding plants. JK Lakshmi subsidiary Udaipur Cement Works has shut its 1.6Mt/yr integrated Udaipur plant, also in Rajasthan.

Dalmia Bharat refractory production subsidiary Dalmia-OCL’s CEO Sameer Dagpaal told the Business Standard newspaper that he expected the virus’ impact on the company to be ‘relatively limited,’ with a slowdown in demand from the cement sector lasting at most ‘a couple of months.’ He noted that there had been ‘some minor supply-side disruptions relating to a shortage of raw materials from China.’

On 24 March 2020 the all-India total number of coronavirus cases crossed 500, with nine dead, according to Al Jazeera. 200 cases are in the western states of Maharashtra and Kerala.

Vietnam: Cement producers in Vietnam are reported to be facing a ‘double whammy’ due to falling domestic demand from a slowdown in the domestic property and infrastructure sectors, as well as a marked decline in exports due to the ongoing Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic.

However, Nguyen Quang Cung, chairman of the Vietnam Cement Association (VNCA) said that demand is expected to remain high throughout 2020 as a whole. The Ministry of Construction (MoC) currently stands by its autumn 2019 forecast that Vietnam will produce 103Mt of cement during 2020. It expects domestic consumption to be around 70Mt, with exports of 33Mt.

To help firms overcome the current difficulties, Cung proposed that the government, the State Bank of Vietnam and other parties offer support to manufacturers in the form of tax cuts and lower interest rates.

Global Cement is sceptical that Vietnam’s cement producers will meet the MoC’s 2020 forecast. In January and February 2020 the country’s domestic sales were 40% lower year-on-year compared to 2019, while exports fell by 49% year-on-year.