Displaying items by tag: Forecast

UK: UK construction recorded its highest ever quarterly total value at Euro27.5bn in the first quarter of 2022. Participants in the industry agreed Euro10.4bn-worth of construction contracts in March 2022. Analyst Barbour ABI has reported that residential construction contracts rose by 50% month-on-month to Euro4.22bn, their highest level since the Covid-19 outbreak arrived in the UK in March 2020. Chief economist Tom Hall noted a year-on-year and month-on-month increase in office construction activity as indicative of a reversal of the home-working trend of the past two years.

Hall said “While the current state of the industry is positive with lots of activity and record-breaking levels of contracts awards and planning approvals in some areas, the horizon is more concerning. Overall, the level of planning applications received in March was low and raises questions about the delivery of the government’s commitment to raise the standard of healthcare across the country and its flagship levelling up agenda.”

Vietnam: Vicem Hoàng Mai Cement has announced a full-year sales target of US$79.2m for 2022, down by 1.5% year-on-year from 2021 levels. Its target net profit for the year is US$656,000, more than five times its 2020 figure. The company forecasts cement production of 1.73Mt, up by 11% from 1.56Mt, and clinker production of 1.4Mt, down by 4.1% from 1.46Mt, for the year. It plans to replace 30 – 40% of the natural gypsum currently used in cement production with synthetic gypsum. It will also increase the proportion of ash and slag in its raw materials mix.

The Chúng Khoán newspaper has reported that Vicem Hoàng Mai Cement said that it is experiencing increased costs due to high raw materials and fossil fuel prices. A coal shortage has also disrupted production.

Tanzania: Tanga Cement has advised investors that it expects a ‘significant improvement’ in its results to a profit before tax in 2021, compared to a loss in 2020. The Daily News newspaper has reported that strong sales during the year contributed to the forecast result, along with a drop in finance costs due to a restructuring of debt facilities.

Tanga Cement said “The improved performance is a result of Tanga Cement’s initiative to optimise the sales, logistics and distribution, as well as its continued cost optimisation initiative.” It added “The company has been able to achieve this despite the challenging global economic and operating environment conditions.”

Italy: Buzzi Unicem’s earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose by 1.8% year-on-year in 2021 to Euro795m. Despite this, its net profit for the year declined by 3.2% year-on-year to Euro542m.

In 2022, Buzzi Unicem forecasts a 10% full-year EBITDA decline due to the impacts of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

China: Anhui Conch recorded a 4.7% year-on-year decline in its consolidated sales to US$26.4bn in 2021 from US$27.7bn in 2020. Its net profit was US$5.23bn, down by 5.3% from US$5.52bn. Anhui Conch attributed the decline to decreased cement demand. Its fuel and power costs increased by 30% in 2021. The producer forecast continued low market demand and high raw material and energy costs for the duration of 2022.

During the reporting period the group’s cement sales volumes fell by 9.8% to 409Mt. It increased its clinker, cement and concrete production capacities by 7.2Mt to 269Mt/yr, by 14.3Mt to 384Mt/yr and 10.5Mm³ to 14.7Mm³. It also installed photovoltaic power plants with a capacity of 200MW. By region, it said that market demand remained stable in East, Central and South China, although sales volumes declined slightly. However, it noted insufficient market demand in West China. The group’s export sales volumes fell by 43% but volumes and sales by its international subsidiaries grew by 7.5% and 5.3% respectively.

World: Market Research Future has forecast a 15% composite annual growth rate (CAGR) in global green cement demand between 2018 and 2023, where green cement is defined as fly ash cement, slag cement, geopolymer cement and other cements produced using alternative raw materials. Market Research Future predicts that fly ash cement’s global growth will be the sharpest due to its abundant availability. Its report concluded that cement sector strategies in response to the growth would include mergers, joint ventures and acquisitions.

India: The Indian cement industry's sales volumes will rise by 18 - 20% year-on-year in the 2022 financial year and surpass 2020 financial year pre-Covid-19 outbreak levels by 6%, according to ratings agency ICRA. The Press Trust of India has reported that, in the first nine months of the 2022 financial year, fuel and electricity costs rose by 31%, raw materials costs by 12% and logistics costs by 5%. This offset a 5% net sales rise to result in an operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (OPBITDA) per tonne of cement of US$14.70/t, down by 10% year-on-year. ICRA forecast a further decline in full-year OPBITDA per tonne of 16 - 18% to US$13.50 - 13.80/t in the 2022 financial year.

Australia: Boral has updated the market that ‘exceptional’ wet weather on the East coast of Australia ‘significantly’ disrupted its New South Wales and South East Queensland operations in February and early March 2022. The Australian newspaper has reported that CEO Zlatko Todorcevski has forecast that the disruption to cement production and deliveries will have a negative impact of US$17.1m on the producer’s earnings in the first quarter of 2022. Coal and diesel costs have also risen ‘sharply’ so far in the quarter, to partly offset which the company has raised its cement prices. It now forecasts full-year earnings from continuing operations, excluding property, of US$108 – 115m.

China: China Tianrui Group has forecast its full-year profit and total comprehensive income as US$187m - 218m in 2021. This corresponds to a 30 - 40% year-on-year decline from its US$312m profit and comprehensive income in 2020. The company attributed the expected decrease to a year-on-year rise in coal prices and decline in cement prices, the latter due to flooding-related demand disruptions in Henan Province.

US: The former Lehigh Hanson Redding cement plant is the subject of a new acquisition deal. Martin Marietta has now agreed to sell the plant, which is in California, and related cement terminals to CalPortland for US$250m. The deal also covers 14 ready-mix concrete locations. The parties have also established arrangements for any future agreement for the sale of Martin Marietta’s Tehachapi cement facility and its related cement distribution terminals. Martin Marietta acquired both plants from Lehigh Hanson in October 2021.

CalPortland’s parent company Taiheiyo Cement said that the acquisition will enable it to build a supply system to meet the growing demand for cement in northern California, Oregon and Nevada. It added that the Redding Plant is an important plant in northern California, which its expects can improve customer satisfaction through an investment to develop more efficient systems. The company concluded “As a result, we expect steady growth in revenue and profits for Taiheiyo Cement’s US cement and ready mixed concrete businesses, which in turn will contribute to the achievement of the medium-term management plan from fiscal years 2022 to 2024.”