Displaying items by tag: Import
Coronavirus and the Chinese cement industry
22 April 2020Data is starting to emerge about how the Chinese cement industry has coped with the economic effects of government action regarding the coronavirus. National cement industry output fell by 29% year-on-year to 150Mt in the combined months of January and February 2020. Output then picked up to 149Mt in March 2020, a drop of 17% compared to March 2019. These are massive figures, larger than the annual output of most countries, but they give some idea of what shutting down economies does to demand for cement and concrete.
Graph 1: Year-on-year change in cement output in China, April 2018 - March 2020. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China. Note that accumulated data is issued for January and February each year so these months show a mean figure.
Graph 1 above gives the general picture of changes in cement output in China over the last couple of years. Growth fell in early 2018 as the government implemented its supply-side reforms, including measures such as industry consolidation and peak shifting. This improved in the second half of the year and throughout 2019. January and February output has been steady for the last few years, possibly due to peak shifting, but this year the trend was massively more pronounced. In March 2020, meanwhile, output fell by 17% compared to a rise of 17% in 2019. On the demand side, reporting from the Chinese Cement Association reveals that national infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 19.7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020. National real estate development investment fell by 7.7% to US$310bn.
The figures above are for the whole of China whilst the outbreak was centered in Wuhan in Hubei province. The government implemented its toughest public health measures in this city and the surrounding Hubei province, with other regions using social distancing and tracking methods to various degrees. The Chinese Cement Association explains that, once other cities in Hubei province were released from lockdown, construction projects were allowed to resume but that progress was limited due to a lack of workers. Three weeks after measures were relaxed, the average shipping rate for cement producers was only 60% in these outer regions. In Wuhan the situation was more stark with demand for cement at only 20% of expected levels at the time the lockdown ended on 8 April 2020. Data from the Hubei Cement Association reports that on 30 March 2020 only half of Hubei province’s 57 clinker production lines were producing cement. The rest were suspended. To compound the problems here once logistics networks started to reopen imports of cement from other provinces flooded in taking advantage of price differences.
Few if any of the larger domestic producers have released their first quarter financial results for the first quarter of 2020. Huaxin Cement has said that its sales fell by 36% and that this is expected to cause a profit drop of 46% year-on-year to US$100m. Shanshui Cement has said likewise, although it has not released any forecasts. In its annual report for 2019 released in early April 2020, Anhui Conch said that the coronavirus had exerted a ‘short-term negative impact’ on the group’s business due to the slowdown in supply and demand in the construction materials industry. CNBM also acknowledged the situation in its 2019 report saying that it would, ‘impact on economic activity.’ CNBM’s subsidiary BNBM, a gypsum wallboard manufacturer, has released a forecast for the first quarter predicting a 90% drop in net profit due to poor sale volumes.
How this can inform the cement industries of other countries around the world that have enacted restrictions on their populations is unclear. China, as ever, is an exceptional outlier both economically and as a cement producer. Plus, the severity of how a country enacts a lockdown is crucial here. If the early reports above are indicative then half of Hubei’s clinker lines were forced to suspend production, demand for cement fell by 80% at the time the lockdown ended and imports headed in once transport networks were reopened. Issues were also noticed with labour shortages. Forewarned is forearmed as they say. The next point of focus will be how fast the Hubei and Chinese cement industry recovers from this shock. More on this as we have it.
Kazakhstan: The acting Minister of Industry and Infrastructure Development of Kazakhstan has signed an order regarding the regulation of several types of cement. This includes the provision for a ban on the import of cement from countries not within the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) for six months from Monday 27 April 2020. Specifically the ban concerns cement clinkers, Portland cement, alumina cement and other forms of hydraulic cement.
Armenia resumes cement production
20 April 2020Armenia: The government has included cement production under a list of permitted economic activities able to resume from 16 April 2020. Azbarez News has reported that the present lockdown is scheduled to continue until 15 May 2020. Cement and clinker imports from neighbouring Iran, historically the main source of construction cement for Armenia, have continued throughout the coronavirus crisis.
Oman experiences cement shortage
02 April 2020Oman: Construction companies have reported delays to several projects resulting from a cement shortage that begun on 21 March 2020. Al-Watan newspaper has reported that most of the affected works are residential. The reason for the shortage is the suspension of cement imports from UAE from mid-March 2020.
Egypt: Sinai Cement’s net loss in 2019 was US$28.1m, down by 44% year-on-year from US$50.2m in 2018. Arab Finance News reported that the company attributed the loss to accumulated effects of currency devaluation on imported fuel and to rises of electricity and oil prices.
Import duties to continue in Armenia
23 March 2020Armenia: The Armenian government has announced that it plans to extend the duration of state duties on cement imported from Iran and several other countries until 1 July 2020. The decision was made on the basis of analysis that confirmed an extension of the customs duties was appropriate. The government said that it would continue to monitor the situation.
According to the RA Statistical Committee Armenia produced 0.59Mt of cement in 2019, 8.1% more than in 2018. The RA Customs Service reported that the country imported 0.31Mt in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 70.5%.
Norochcholai Coal Power Plant targets US$5.5m in fly ash sales to cement plants in 2020
10 March 2020Sri Lanka: Norochcholai Coal Power Plant (NCPP) is courting buyers for its fly ash, of which it says it produces US$5.5m-worth annually. In 2019 NCPP sold US$3.3m to Sri Lankan cement producers. Daily News Sri Lanka has reported that the company has undertaken measures to increase the value of the fly ash to cement producers, in order to obtain a higher price. NCPP manager Indrasiri Gallage said, "By selling fly ash to cement producers the plant has also helped to free the country from reliance on clinker imports."
An expansion, including the installation of a new 300MW coal-fired power plant, will eventually bring the NCPP’s capacity to 1200MW. The plant is currently working to increase the value of its bottom ash for paving block production.
Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan imported 3.27Mt of cement in 2019, down by 6.8% year-on-year from 3.51Mt in 2018. The value of cement imported fell by 13% to US$154m from US$176m. Trend newspaper has reported that cement imports from Kazakhstan fell by 32% to 0.97Mt from 1.43Mt. Imports from Tajikistan and Turkmenistan also fell, but rose by 85% from Iran, to 0.59Mt from 0.32Mt.
Uzbekistan, which has a 12.9Mt/yr installed cement production capacity, removed its zero rate of customs duty on cement in October 2019 in order to help align domestic demand with production.
Dangote shares 2019 results
27 February 2020Nigeria: Dangote Cement’s profit in 2019 was US$685m, down by 17% from US$822m in 2018. Sales were US$2.46bn, down by 1.1% year-on-year from US$2.49bn in 2018. “Export sales were affected by the Nigeria-Benin border closure in the second half of 2019. Looking ahead, I expect an increase in volumes in 2020 as we commence clinker exports via shipping from Nigeria,” said Dangote Cement CEO Joe Makoju. The group reported pan-African volume growth to 9.4Mt/yr, noting a 94% growth in Tanzanian volumes, aided by the commencement of operations at a temporary gas power plant in the East African country.
Retiring from the company, Makoju said, “I am proud to have watched Dangote Cement grow from a local producer back in 2007 to a major force in global cement production. Dangote Cement has eliminated Nigeria's dependence on imported cement.” He wished his successor Michel Puchercos all the best in his new role.
Residential construction rises by 24% year-on-year in Tajikistan
26 February 2020Tajikistan: Builders completed the construction of 1.36Mm2 of multi-storey housing in Tajikistan in 2019, up by 24% from 1.10Mm2 in 2018. Tajikistan Newsline has reported that all residential construction concrete comes from domestically produced cement. Tajikistan produced 4.2Mt of cement in 2019 - up by 11% from 1.8Mt in 2018 - exporting 1.5Mt. It imported 20,000t, primarily of white cement.