Displaying items by tag: Portland Cement Association

US: A forecast from the Portland Cement Association (PCA) expects a 7.5% rise in cement consumption in 2012. However, the association says that these gains could be immediately erased in 2013 if the so-called US 'fiscal cliff' is not resolved. The fiscal cliff refers to tax increases of US$400bn and federal spending cuts of US$200m currently scheduled to come into effect on 1 January 2013.

If the US House of Congress resolves the fiscal cliff during its session in 2012, the PCA expects the economy to continue to grow and cement consumption in 2013 to increase by 6%. Adversely, even if Congress addresses the policies by the first quarter of 2013, this delay will cause significant economic harm and cause a 2.7% drop in cement consumption.

"Because we believe the odds for either outcome are even, we have adopted a forecasting approach that minimises up and downside risk," said Ed Sullivan, the chief economist at the PCA. "Our baseline scenario blends the two possible outcomes and projects a 1.8% increase in cement consumption in 2013."

Sullivan also reported that the longer the US Congress delays in addressing the fiscal cliff, the greater the adverse effect on economic growth and construction activity in particular. "If no action is taken by mid-2013, the country could be headed into a severe recession," said Sullivan.

According to the PCA report, cement consumption from 1 January 2012 to 30 September 2012 had increased by 10% compared to 2011, with 16 consecutive months of growth. Sullivan attributed this growth to the return of consumer confidence, a strong housing market and, most importantly, growth in employment.

US: Growth in home construction and favourable weather conditions have helped to boost the consumption of cement in the first half 2012, according to a report released on 3 August 2012 by the Portland Cement Association (PCA).

In its report the PCA forecasts that cement consumption will be 6.9% higher by the end of 2012 compared with the end of 2011. The association, however, warned that there is some uncertainty about the state of the industry going beyond 2012. In a news release, it put much of the blame for the uncertainty on the US Congress.

Economists worry that the inability of Congress to find common ground on tax cuts expiring and the automatic spending cuts set to kick in at the end of 2012 could force the nation over a 'fiscal cliff', driving the economy back into recession.

"If Congress fails to address the fiscal cliff issue during the first or second quarter of 2013 there is the potential for severe adverse economic consequences that could slow the recovery process, potentially leading to a severe decline in 2013 cement consumption," said Ed Sullivan, the PCA's chief economist.

US: The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) appears poised to soften particulate matter (PM) limits in its pending revised air toxics rule for cement plants, while separately pursuing an extended compliance deadline for the rule. Both moves would represent major concessions to industry groups that sought a weaker rule but have the potential to rile environmentalists who say such changes would be unlawful.

According to an industry source, EPA will propose to soften the rule's PM limits on smokestacks for existing cement plants. New data submitted to EPA by the industry shows that the limit of 0.02kg/t of clinker set by the final rule prior to reconsideration is not realistically attainable. Instead, the EPA will probably revert to a higher number, closer to the 0.043kg/t that it offered in its original proposal.

Environmentalists oppose softening the air toxics rule and recently warned the agency in written comments that, "any changes diminishing or replacing the existing standards would be flatly unlawful." The likely changes to the rule follow a series of 11th-hour meetings that industry officials and others have held with EPA and White House Office of Management & Budget (OMB) staff seeking to shape the proposal.

The Portland Cement Association previously presented a paper to the EPA arguing for an increase in the emissions limit for PM. "The current PM limit of 0.02kg/t of clinker is very stringent," reported the paper. "Very few facilities can comply with the clinker limit without major investments in new and upgraded PM controls."

US: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has sent for the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to review its proposed revisions to its emissions rules for the Portland cement sector, ahead of a tentative 15 June 2012 deadline for issuing the revisions in line with a proposed consent decree with the industry.

The pending proposed revised rules undergoing OMB review will address not only the remand but also the EPA's May 2011 partial reconsideration of the cement rules - including standards for open clinker storage piles and start-up and shutdown monitoring requirements - as those provisions included in the recent proposed consent decree with industry.

In the Register notice on the consent decree, the EPA says that it "would also agree to propose to extend the existing source compliance date of 10 September 2013, or in any case to discuss the possibility of extending that date, and to take final action by 20 December 2012 regarding the date of compliance," if such provisions are 'supported by the administrative record.'

While stalling the compliance deadline would be a 'win' for the cement industry, it would likely draw protests from environmentalists supportive of the current air toxics rule. The deadline for comments on the proposed consent decree is 7 June 2012.

US: Stronger than expected job creation and the beginning of a construction industry recovery mean gains in real construction spending will materialise in 2012, according to a new forecast from the Portland Cement Association (PCA). The PCA says that increases in cement consumption will follow.

The PCA revised its autumn forecast upward, anticipating a modest 3.7% increase in cement consumption in 2012, followed by a 7.6% jump in 2013 and a 14.1% increase in 2014. The forecast includes marginal improvements to non-residential construction, an upward revision to housing starts and an aggressive cement intensity gain, which is the amount of cement used per dollar of construction activity.

"Cement usage is greatest at the early stages of construction with foundation work. The retreat of building starts during the recession had a huge impact on consumption and intensity," said Ed Sullivan, chief economist at the PCA. "A construction start rebound in 2012 coupled with concrete's competitive price compared to other building materials translates to increases."

Sullivan said that, with successive years of economic and employment growth, the structural issues facing the construction industry will diminish. For example, the adverse impact of foreclosures will fade and return on investment for non-residential investments will improve.

The PCA forecasts that all sectors of construction will be positive during 2014-2015, which typically results in large gains in cement consumption.

US: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has agreed to delay maximum achievable control technology (MACT) air compliance for cement plants by two years. As part of on-going negotiations with the Portland Cement Association (PCA) if the EPA doesn't issues a proposal to this effect by 15 June 2012 then the PCA and other cement producers will be able to resume legal action against the pollution rulings.

Under the terms of a 16 April 2012 proposed consent decree, the EPA will have to issue by 15 June 2012 a proposal addressing a ruling on 9 December 2011 from the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. The EPA's revisions will also have to cover separate pending industry administrative petitions. The EPA has been negotiating with the PCA over the terms of the proposed consent decree, following a ruling finding that the EPA failed to reconsider how a related incinerator emissions rule could potentially alter the cement rule's emission limits.

The EPA has also agreed under the proposed consent decree to finalise a revised MACT by 20 December 2012, but the settlement does not require that the agency finalise a two-year delay. Rather, the decree states that EPA must only include its 'final decision on whether to extend the compliance deadlines for existing sources' in the revised MACT.

The EPA and PCA also acknowledge that EPA must subject the agreement to public comment and review. The settlement further notes that, "if the federal government elects to withdraw or withhold consent to this Agreement" after considering public comments on it, "PCA shall have the right to withdraw from this Agreement and file a request to lift the abeyance requested by the Parties."

As environmentalists and states were not party to the settlement, this public comment would provide them with the first opportunity to challenge the possibility of a two-year delay for the rule's compliance deadline and changes to meet the other provisions in the settlement.

US: Congressmen Steve Chabot (Ohio) and Geoff Davis (Kentucky) have sent an open letter to US President Barack Obama regarding his visit to the Cincinnati area in northern Kentucky. Noting that the President chose a ready-mix concrete plant as the location for his remarks, Chabot and Davis have urged the President to support the Portland Cement Association (PCA)-backed Cement Sector Relief Act of 2011 (H.R. 2681) that is currently moving through the House of Representatives.

If enacted, H.R. 2681 would stop the federal government from imposing what the industry and the PCA see as excessive regulations, previously described as 'avalanche' of legislation, on cement manufacturers, threatening thousands of American jobs.

The EPA estimates that just one of the three proposed rules could threaten 12 of the US's 100 cement plants, which represent 11% of the nation's cement production capacity. According to experts at the Southern Methodist University, "Should 10% of the domestic industry disappear the direct, indirect and induced job losses would exceed 15,000. This figure does not include possible job losses in the huge construction sector that might occur in the face of higher concrete prices."

US: Despite recovery momentum in late 2010, the US economy is again in a slowdown, according to the most recent economic forecast by the Portland Cement Association (PCA), which says that the slowdown will weaken construction activity and restrain gains in cement consumption until 2013.

The PCA downgraded its cement consumption growth forecast to 0.2% for 2011, 0.4% in 2012 with a significant 16.4% increase in 2013. According to the report, uncertainty regarding highway spending legislation and government policy related to the debt crisis will cause a negative drag on construction activity for the next few years.

"Our previous forecast had assumed the new highway bill would be 20% higher than existing levels but we now believe the funding will remain at current levels," said PCA chief economist Edward Sullivan. "A lack of highway funding and reduced consumer, business and bank confidence due to the debt crisis will all slow down construction recovery."

According to Sullivan, economic recovery from the recession will be led by a strengthening of confidence in these areas. Without a sustained improvement, private sector fundamentals such as job creation, investment and ease in lending standards will not be released in full force and commit the economy to a path of improvement.

US: A Duke University study prepared for the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has reported that the cement industry reduced its energy intensity by 13% between 1997 and 2007, averaging improvements of more than 1%/yr. These energy savings equate to a reduction of almost 1.5Mt of energy-related carbon. The study showed the gap between the best-performing cement plants and others narrowed and the performance of the industry as a whole improved.

"The decade studied by Duke was one of unprecedented growth for the cement industry, yet Portland Cement Association (PCA) members demonstrated their commitment to environmental stewardship by building sound strategies for energy management and investing in their facilities with state-of-the-art technologies that significantly improved the industry's energy-efficiency and reduced emissions," said Brian McCarthy, PCA CEO and president. "The US cement industry was among the first major industries to tackle the issue of climate change and this study illustrates that it has remained at the forefront of developing policies and improving the manufacturing process."

The study was commissioned by the EPA to measure the change in the cement industry's energy efficiency curve. The energy management approach promoted by the EPA's 'Energy Star' programme, which benchmarks plant energy performance against peers over time and certifies plants that achieve the best enviornmental performance, was an important factor in enabling the industry to improve its energy performance.

The Energy Performance Indicator (EPI) scores the energy efficiency of a single cement plant and allows the plant to compare its performance to that of the entire industry. The tool is intended to help cement plant operators identify opportunities to improve energy efficiency, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, conserve conventional energy supplies and reduce production costs.

US: Inaction by Congress to raise the federal debt ceiling could result in a second recession, adversely impacting cement consumption, according to a recent report by the Portland Cement Association (PCA).

The report says that inaction on the debt ceiling could cause derailment of the fragile US economic recovery. A federal default would have a severe impact on business, consumer and bank confidence, leading to a rise in interest rates. In addition, forced government austerity spending measures are likely. This could depress highway and other government construction programs at the federal and state level. This possibility could cause a great deal of further pain to the cement industry, because public construction projects account for 50% of total cement consumption in the US.

"In this scenario, cement consumption would record a 5.6% retraction in 2011 followed by a 7.5% drop in 2012," said Ed Sullivan, PCA chief economist. "In fact the debt crisis may already be exerting adverse influence on near-term cement consumption due to suspension of state and local treasury bonds as well as an overall uncertainty that has been injected into the economic landscape."

The PCA estimates that the cyclical downturn caused by the Great Recession has reduced federal revenues by USD1.9tn and raised income security payments like unemployment insurance by USD600bn. Aside from revenue and tax assessments, part of the increase in debt has been recorded due to necessary countercyclical spending such as the stimulus package. Defence spending in the Middle East has also contributed to the recent large deficits. The report says that finally (and perhaps most worryingly) deficits have come from increases in entitlement spending fuelled by demographic changes. The Congressional Budget Office expects entitlement spending on social security and the Medicare and Medicaid schemes will rise from USD1.5tn in 2010 to USD2.6tn in 2020.

The debt accumulation during the past four years actually exceeds the total debt accumulated since the country's inception.