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Changes are underway in South Asia’s second largest cement sector, with two legal developments that affect the industry set in motion in the past week. At a national level, the Competition Commission of Pakistan recommended that the government require cement producers to include production and expiry dates on the labels of bagged cement. Meanwhile, in Pakistan’s largest province, Punjab, a new law tightened procedures around the establishment and expansion of cement plants. At the same time, the country’s cement producers began to publish their financial results for the first nine months of the 2024 financial year (FY2024).

During the nine-month period up to 31 March 2024, the Pakistani cement industry sold 34.5Mt of cement, up by 3% year-on-year. Producers have responded to the growth with capacity expansions, including the launch of the new 1.3Mt/yr Line 3 of Attock Cement’s Hub cement plant in Balochistan on 17 April 2023. China-based contractor Hefei Cement Research & Design executed the project, including installation of a Loesche LM 56.3+3 CS vertical roller mill, giving the Hub plant a new, expanded capacity of 3Mt/yr.

Pressure has eased on the operating costs of Pakistani cement production, as inflation slowed and the country received a new government in March 2024, following political unrest in 2022 and 2023. Coal prices also settled back to 2019 levels, after prolonged agitation. Pakistan Today News reported the value of future coal supply contracts as US$93/t for June 2024, down by 2% over six months from US$95/t for January 2024.

Nonetheless, cost optimisation remained a ‘strong focus’ in the growth strategy of Fauji Cement, which switched to using local and Afghan coal at its plants during the past nine months. Its reliance on captive power rose to 60% of consumption, thanks to its commissioning of new waste heat recovery and solar power capacity. During the first nine months of FY2024, the company’s year-on-year sales growth of 14% narrowly offset cost growth of 13%, leaving it with net profit growth of 1%.

Looking more closely, the latest sales data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) shows a stark divergence within cement producers’ markets. While exports recorded 68% year-on-year growth to 5.1Mt, domestic sales fell, by 4% to 29.4Mt. The association further breaks down Pakistani cement sales data into South Pakistan (Balochistan and Sindh) and North Pakistan (all other regions). Domestic sales dropped most sharply in South Pakistan, by 6% to 5.16Mt. In the North, they dropped by 3% to 24.2Mt. Part of the reason was a high base of comparison, following flooding-related reconstruction work nationally during the 2023 financial year. Meanwhile, the government finished rolling out track-and-trace on all cement despatches during the opening months of the current financial year, and commenced the implementation of axle load requirements for cement trucks. APCMA flagged both policies as potentially disruptive to its members’ domestic deliveries, amid a strong infrastructure project pipeline.

Pakistani producers suffer from overcapacity, but have established themselves as an important force in the global export market. They continue to locate new markets, including the UK in January 2024. Lucky Cement was among leading exporters overall, with a large share of its orders originating from Africa.

On 17 April 2024, the government of Punjab province set up a committee to assess new proposed cement projects, with the ultimate goal of conserving water. Falling water tables are considered a significant economic threat in agricultural Punjab. Besides completing an inspection by the new committee, proposed projects must also secure clearance from six different provincial government departments and the local government. While acknowledging the necessity of the cement industry, the government insisted that it will take legal action against any cement plant that exceeds water allowances.

Pakistan’s cement plants have grown in anticipation of a local market boom. Without this strong core of sales, underutilisation will remain troublesome, especially in North Pakistan where exposure is highest. At the same time, APCMA has given expression to the perceived lack of support affecting production and distribution. For an industry with expansionist aims, new restrictions on its growth and operations can feel like an existential menace.

UK: Breedon Group's sales dropped by 5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, according to a trading update from the company. It attributed this to macroeconomic uncertainty and unfavourable weather conditions in the UK. Sales volumes of its materials ‘softened,’ but prices remained ‘resilient,’ partly offsetting the decline. The quarter brought three new acquisitions, including the company’s first in the US. Two scheduled cement kiln shutdowns took place within budget and on schedule.

CEO Rob Wood said "We have laid good foundations for the remainder of the year: progressing pricing, pursuing efficiencies, completing two bolt-on acquisitions and launching our third platform by entering the US market. Although the economic landscape remains uncertain, I am confident our discipline and focus, coupled with our strong customer relationships, will see us deliver against our unchanged expectations for 2024."

World: Investment firm Insight Partners has forecast a composite annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.3% in the global green cement and concrete market between 2023 and 2030. This will result in a total value of US$990m in 2030, compared to US$806m in 2023. Regionally, the firm expects the sharpest growth in South and Central America, with a CAGR of 10% to US$7.9m in 2030. North America is expected to grow at a rate of 5.4% annually, to US$190m, followed by Europe, at 4.5% to US$226m, Middle East and Africa, at 2.9% to US$13m, and Asia-Pacific, at 1.4% to US$553m. In 2023, Asia-Pacific commanded a 61% share of the global market. Europe’s share was 20% and that of North America was 16%.

TürkÇimento revealed this week that cement production in Türkiye grew by 10.5% year-on-year to 81.5Mt in 2023. In a press release describing the progress of the local cement sector, the cement association reported that domestic sales rose by 19% to 65Mt but that exports fell by 28% to just under 20Mt. Fatih Yücelik, the chair of TürkÇimento, also said that his country was the second largest exporter of cement in the world in 2023 and that its most important target market was the US. He noted that the construction sector grew by 8% during 2023, that reconstruction projects were enacted following earthquakes in early 2023 but that no further growth in domestic sales of cement was anticipated in 2024.

As is standard for these kinds of occasions, Yücelik also raised the association’s sustainability ambitions, describing his sector as one “whose main goal is to provide low-carbon production.” He added that the Turkish cement industry supports the country’s net zero target of 2053. To this end the association has also released its first sustainability report, for 2022, covering 48 of the country’s 52 integrated plants. The Hürriyet Daily News newspaper offered one reason for this enthusiasm for sustainability: the US$30bn in investment required to meet that 2053 net-zero target. It also reported that Yücelik said that the industry needed to spend US$2bn towards meeting the incoming requirements of the European Union Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).

Graph 1: Domestic and export cement sales in Türkiye, January – October, 2017 – 2023. Source: TürkÇimento.

TürkÇimento’s data for 2023 currently runs up to October 2023 but it supports Yücelik’s assessment. As can be seen in Graph 1, domestic sales of cement rose sharply in the first 10 months of 2023, by 20% year-on-year to 53.1Mt, yet exports fell almost as abruptly, by 18% to 13Mt. This is noteworthy, as exports had been rising steadily each year since 2018. Italy-based Cementir provided some context here in its annual report for 2023 saying that it had decided to focus on the domestic market due to greater profitability. Heidelberg Materials’ joint-venture Akçansa echoes these comments, blaming declining exports on “historically low freight rates increasing competitiveness of southeast Asian suppliers” while emphasising that the shift to the domestic market was made to meet increasing demand.

Graph 2: Revenue of selected large Turkish cement producers, 2022 - 2023. Source: Company reports.

Financial information from the larger Turkish cement producers that have released their results for 2023 follows the same pattern. Three of the four companies included in Graph 2 saw sales revenue grow in 2023. The one that saw its revenue fall, Nuh Çimento, is a major exporter. In 2022 for example it supplied 18% of the country’s total cement exports. All of these companies saw operating profit or earnings increase though.

The other big Türkiye-based news story this week was that Taiwan Cement Corporation (TCC) completed the latest increase to its stakes of Cimpor Global Holdings joint-ventures in Türkiye and Portugal. TCC now owns a 60% stake of the business in Türkiye and a 100% stake in Portugal. With respect to the business in Türkiye this means that TCC now has control of the country’s largest cement producer, OYAK Çimento. Once again the CBAM received a mention, with TCC saying in its valedictory statement that it believed that, “whether it's domestic or imported cement, low-carbon cement will become the main competitive advantage for the cement companies entering the European market.”

The domestic market in Türkiye may have seen a bounce in 2023 but the attention of both TürkÇimento, TCC and others are firmly set on the wider market in the region. TürkÇimento’s Fatih Yücelik said that the country’s cement production capacity was 120Mt/yr and that the population would have to be 150m to eliminate the need for exports. Its population is currently just under 85m. Yücelik set a value of US$2bn for his sector to adjust to CBAM but he also remarked that the income from exports in 2023 was around US$1.3bn. This is not an easy investment ‘pill’ to swallow but one that the country will have to digest if it wants to keep its export levels up.

Peru: UNACEM reported sales of US$1.69bn in 2023, up by 6.6% year-on-year, despite a ‘significant downturn’ in the construction market. Its net profit dropped by 22% to US$139m.

Business News Americas has reported that the Peruvian Cement Producers’ Association (ASOCEM) recorded 9% month-on-month growth in domestic cement consumption in January 2024. Scotiabank forecasts 5% year-on-year growth in consumption in the first quarter of 2024, and a 3.7% expansion in the construction market in the full year 2024, following an 8% contraction in full-year 2023.

US: Global Cement understands from material published publicly on Breedon Group’s website that the UK-based company acquired ready-mix concrete, aggregates and building products company BMC Enterprises for US$300m on 6 March 2023. This marks the group’s first entry into the US building materials sector. Breedon Group described the acquisition as a ‘compelling opportunity’ in the ‘fragmented and growing’ market. It described BMC Enterprises as a highly attractive, established business upon which to grow a new group platform in the US, in addition to its existing platforms in the UK and Ireland.

Breedon Group CEO Rob Wood said “The acquisition of BMC represents a compelling opportunity for Breedon to launch our third platform. BMC has an excellent performance track record over a sustained period and is positioned in an attractive market for future growth. As a high-quality aggregates and concrete business that has grown at pace, organically and through acquisitions, with a strong management team and deep local knowledge, BMC’s culture and values are fully aligned with the Breedon business model.” Wood added "The acquisition is expected to be earnings-enhancing for shareholders, while allowing Breedon to maintain a conservative and flexible balance sheet to pay dividends and make further bolt-on acquisitions across each of our platforms as opportunities arise.”

Germany/US: Heidelberg Materials CEO Dominik von Achten spoke during the producer’s 2023 results presentation about ‘various scenarios’ to maximise the benefits of its high valuation in the US. Börsen-Zeitung News has reported that the company is considering a possible listing in the US. Alternative scenarios include the launch of an initial public offering (IPO) there.

India: Dalmia Cement has launched new branding identifying itself as a Roof Column Foundation Expert. The identity is accompanied by the slogan ‘Roof, column, foundation strong, home strong.’ The company says that the branding will help it to position its cement as first choice in business-to-consumer (B2C) building materials retailing. The campaign especially targets towns of 20,000 – 100,000 people, outside of India’s metropolitan centres. The producer aims to raise its B2C sales from 65% to 70% in the 2025 financial year. It now operates a 45,000-strong retail network. In order to support further growth in the segment, the company plans to deploy 600 technical staff and 150 vans across India.

Chief operating officer Sameer Nagpal said “We believe that the brand must play a vital role in consumer’s lives so that they can make informed choices. Dalmia Cement has over the years developed proprietary know-how of optimising cement recipes that makes it most suitable for roof, column and foundation.”

Managing director and CEO Shri Puneet Dalmia said “Our new brand campaign manifests not just an eminent legacy, but also a commitment to consumer centricity – it conveys a core message that building a home with due care means building it for generations to come.”

Australia: Seven Group Holdings has offered US$1.24bn to acquire all outstanding shares of Boral. The conglomerate already holds 72% of shares in the building materials producer. Reuters has reported that this would correspond to a total valuation of US$4.35bn for the company.

Boral has undertaken restructuring since 2022, with a focus on Australian building and industrial products to capitalise on increased public sector investments, while divesting several international assets.

Peru: Cementos Pacasmayo recorded an 8% year-on-year drop in its full-year sales in 2023. Group sales volumes of cement and concrete fell by 14%. Its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) also dropped, by 2% to US$125m, influenced by a US$9.47m impairment due to the replacement of its former vertical kilns with a new kiln. The producer further attributed the decline to low construction activity in the private and public sectors, as well the effects of Cyclone Yaku in early 2023.