Striking news from Libya this week with the announcement that an investor with international backing wants to buy the majority stake in the Libyan Cement Company.
Libya holdings owner Ahmed Ben Halim is in the process of buying out the Austrian Group Asamer that originally bought a majority share for US$145m back in 2008. Most of the remaining share was owned by the Economic and Social Development Fund. Taking over the company now seems bold from a European perspective or Ahmed Ben Halim got a very good price. No financial information regarding the deal has been made public.
Libya has remained politically unstable since the civil war in 2011. According to the Libyan Herald, following the war a strike at the Libyan Cement Company's plants for lost wages stopped production. Since then two of the three cement plants the company runs in east Libya near Benghazi have remained shut due to their proximity to fighting with the Ansar Al-Sharia militia. Before the civil war in 2011 the Libyan Cement Company had a combined cement production capacity of 6Mt/yr almost half the USGS estimated production for the entire country in that year.
The Libyan Cement Company's plants are all located in the east of the country under the nominal control of the Council of Deputies based in Tobruk. Its two plants in Benghazi have remained shut due to their proximity to fighting with the Ansar Al-Sharia militia. A third plant near Derna has also had security issues. Halim told the Financial Times that he was not 'crazy' to be investing at this time. "We have a long-term strategic plan" he said, "that Libya's going to rebuild its infrastructure. And a key element of this is cement." If he can hold out until the rebuilding starts then he may just be right.
Meanwhile across the border in Egypt, Minister of Supply Khaled Hanafy announced this week that cement prices had remained 'stable' for the fifth month in row. Some commentators placed improved energy supply security at the heart of this situation allowing producers to build up inventory. However, given the situation in Libya, it is worth considering what will happen once Libyan demand for cement does pick up both in competition for energy supplies like coal and a keener export market.
Finally, our editorial director Dr Robert McCaffrey was at the IEEE-IAS/PCA Cement Conference in Toronto, Canada this week. Here's his snapshot of PCA economist Ed Sullivan's forecast for future US cement supply and demand.
Ed Sullivan's forecast for future US cement supply and demand, at IEEE in Toronto. pic.twitter.com/RUoT7uHGtg
— Robert McCaffrey (@DrRobMcCaffrey) April 28, 2015
The UK London Underground has 'mind the gap' as its well-known warning phrase to prevent passengers falling between the platform and the trains when boarding. The favourable supply gap Ed Sullivan is talking about in US will be one cement producers will definitely not want to miss.