Displaying items by tag: India
Government lifts lockdown for rural cement production
20 April 2020India: Operations of industrial units in rural areas are clear to resume as of 20 April 2020, subject to local permissions and social distancing rules. Dion News Service has reported that JK Lakshmi Cement has resumed operations at two grinding units in Gujarat, JK Cement has resumed reduced operations at its 3.0Mt/yr integrated Muddapur plant in Karnataka and UltraTech has resumed operations ‘at some of the company’s locations.’ Ambuja Cements, ACC, ICC and India Cements all announced plans to return to full capacity utilisation in phases.
As part of phase two of India’s coronavirus lockdown, public spaces remain closed and public transport is suspended until 3 May 2020.
Larsen & Toubro wins ACC Ametha contract
17 April 2020India: ACC Cement has awarded an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for work on its upcoming 1.0Mt/yr integrated Ametha plant in Kathnl, Madhya Pradesh to Larsen & Toubro. The Press Trust of India has reported that the 9500t/day cement plant will have a clinker capacity of 3.0Mt/yr. The value of the contract is reportedly US$131m.
Gujarat Sidhee Cement resumes production
16 April 2020India: Gujarat Sidhee Cement resumed production at its 1.2Mt/yr Sidheegram plant in Gujarat on 15 April 2020. The company said that in reopening the plant it would ‘comply with directives issued by central, state and local government,’ according to Accord Fintech News.
Update on India, April 2020
08 April 2020As India reaches two weeks into its 21 day lockdown to combat coronavirus, the financial analysts are starting to publish their forecasts as to what the effects will be for the cement industry. The results are gloomy, with demand predicted to drop by up to 25% in the financial year to March 2021 by one analyst and 40% in March 2020 alone by another.
Graph 1: Indian cement production, rolling annual by month, January 2018 – February 2020. Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry.
The graph above sets the scene for what may be to come by showing the state of production in India in recent years. From early 2018 it picked up by 17% to 337Mt by March 2019 and stayed around there through the rest of year before breeching 340Mt in January and February 2020. The (relative) lull in production growth in 2019 was blamed by some analysts on the general election in mid-2019 and then the monsoon rains. In summary the market was improving and seemed set for further growth in 2020. Alas, this does not now seem to be the case.
Looking ahead, Rating’s agency CRISIL has published a research paper on the topic and here are some of the highlights. They break the damage down into two separate scenarios. The first, where the social distancing measures last until the end of April, cause a 10 – 15% fall in cement demand with the pain limited to the first quarter of the Indian financial year, which starts on 1 April. The second, where distancing measures last until June, cause a 20 – 25% decrease in demand, with the problems extended into the second quarter. Salient points that it makes about the anticipated recovery include a delay in infrastructure spending due to the government diverting funds to healthcare, reduced private and real estate markets and a divide between state-led affordable housing schemes in urban and rural areas. It pins its hopes on rural housing to grab demand first, followed by key infrastructure projects, especially transport schemes.
Examining the cement producers directly, CRISIL reckons that prices will fall in the face of dropping demand but that power, fuel and freight costs are all expected to fall also. Profit margins are forecast to drop compared to the 2019 – 2020 financial year but still remain higher than the two previous ones. Finally, it looked at the credit profiles of 23 companies, representing over 70% of installed production capacity. Together they had a total debt of US$7bn. It flagged up four of these companies as having high debt/earnings ratios and five with low interest coverage. The latter were described as ‘small regional firms with weak cash balances.’
That’s one view on what may happen but two recent general industry news stories offer snapshots on what may be to come for the Indian market. The first is an immediate consequence of a nationwide lockdown in a country with a population of 1.3bn and a low cost of labour. 400 construction workers at a grinding plant build for Ramco Cements in Haridaspur, Odisha, were stranded at the site when the quarantine restrictions stopped them travelling home to Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. They took up residence at the building site and then protested when the food ran out. This point about migrant labour is noteworthy because how the Indian government relaxes the lockdown could have massive consequences upon how the construction industry recovers. A possible parallel from elsewhere in the world is the slowdown effect the Saudi Arabian cement industry suffered in late 2013 when the government took action against illegal foreign workers in the construction industry.
The second news story to keep in mind is the annual results from refractory manufacturer RHI Magnesita this week. It reported growing revenue from its cement and lime customers in 2019 but it blamed a weaker market in Europe on producers stockpiling product due to tightening magnesite and dolomite raw material availability. The takeaway here is that if supply chains supporting the cement sector and the rest of the construction industry in India at the moment are affected by the coronavirus outbreak, and government action to stop it, then there may be consequences later on. So far Global Cement hasn’t seen anything like this but the preparation for coronavirus advice from industry expert John Kilne has been to indentify and secure medium term needs, including refractory and critical spare parts and to consider potential disruption to supply chains.
In terms of what happens next once the lockdown ends in India (and other countries), one media commentator has described the response to coronavrius as the ‘hammer and the dance.’ The hammer is the economy-busting measures many governments have implemented to stop local epidemics. The dance is/are the measures that countries are using before and after an outbreak to keep it suppressed until a vaccine is developed. The worry for building material producers is how much the ‘dance’ disrupts business over the next year. All eyes will be on the East Asian producer market figures for the first quarter to see how this plays out.
Dalmia Bharat aids coronavirus relief in Odisha
08 April 2020India: Dalmia Bharat has donated US$262,000 to the Odisha Chief Minister’s Relief Fund to help people survive the coronavirus outbreak and lockdown. United News of India has reported that Dalmia Bharat has participated in extensive humanitarian efforts during the on-going pan-Indian coronavirus lockdown, including delivering a week’s groceries to 650 families in the Odisha town of Rajgangpur and dry food packets to 900 families in districts around its Biswali, Odisha plant. The group has cooked meals for 3000 people and arranged with local administrators to feed a further 8800. Dalmia Bharat has also opened its technical centres, guest houses and schools to medical authorities for use in treating coronavirus cases. Dalmia Bharat East regional manufacturing head Sunil Gupta said, “We are totally committed to supporting the national and state governments in their fight to contain the spread of COVID-19.”
Shree Cement ready to resume operations
08 April 2020India: Shree Cement has said that it will resume production across its 37.9Mt installed capacity as soon as the government lifts its coronavirus lockdown. Shree Cement general manager Hari Bangur said, “We are technically ready to start our cement plants.” The Business Standard newspaper reported that other producers are equally determined to get back to work. JK Lakshmi Cement has said that it will require a minimum of 15 days after the end of lockdown to streamline its operations.
Cement demand forecast to plunge in India
07 April 2020India: Cement manufacturers in India have seen a significant turn in fortunes since the start of 2020 due to the ongoing coronavirus outbreak. Producers, which had been raising prices and selling high volumes at the start of the year, are seeing a slump in demand in the wake of a nation-wide lockdown that began in mid-March 2020. Motilal Oswal Financial Services estimates that cement sales in March 2020 will be 40% lower than those seen in March 2019. Even after the lockdown ends, there will be severe knock-on effects for the remainder of India’s 2021 Fiscal Year (FY2021), which ends on 31 March 2021. This is expected to be due to weak economic growth, government cuts in spending on infrastructure and lower real estate demand.
Indeed, ratings agency CRISIL expects cement demand in India to contract by at least 10 - 15% in FY2021 compared to FY2020, with a ‘worst-case scenario’ of up to a 25% reduction.
The only respite that cement manufacturers may see is on the logistics side. With lower production volumes, transporters are offering more concessions on freight rates that will further help with costs, according to analysts. Low oil prices will benefit producers, while Petcoke prices may also remain relatively low.
South Asian trade body welcomes relief measures
07 April 2020Pakistan: The Pak-India Business Council (PIBC), a leading Pakistan-based organisation that advocates for stronger trade ties with India, has welcomed a relief package for the construction sector announced by Prime Minister Imran Khan. The PIBC said that the measures would be help generate business in the country, including for those taking home daily wages, who have been disproportionately affected by the coronavirus outbreak.
PIBC Chairman Noor Muhammad Kasuri said that the Khan's relief package would help provide relief to construction workers. He also welcomed an exemption of duty on construction materials, including cement, that would also help construction firms and allied businesses. Kasuri even added that the steps would open ‘new vistas of investment’ in the country after the outbreak.
HeidelbergCement completes grinding plant expansions
01 April 2020India: Germany-based HeidelbergCement has announced the successful expansion of two grinding plants. Accord Fintech News has reported that the company took advantage of the suspension of cement production since 24 March 2020 to complete debottlenecking work at the Jhansi, Uttar Pradesh, and Imlai, Madhya Pradesh, grinding plants, bringing their cement production capacities to 3.3Mt/yr and 2.5Mt/yr respectively.
HeidelbergCement India has an integrated capacity of 3.7Mt/yr and a grinding capacity of 6.3Mt/yr (total capacity: 10Mt/yr).
India: Construction workers employed at the site of Ramco Cement’s Haridaspur, Odisha, grinding plant, which has been under construction since early 2018, have protested over an alleged lack of food being supplied to the plant, where they are currently residing. The Pioneer newspaper has reported that the nationwide coronavirus lockdown prevented the 400 workers, from Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal, from returning home, leading them to take up residence in the Haridaspur plant. Police are talking with the protestors and Ramco Cements management.