Displaying items by tag: Türkiye
Update on Ukraine, May 2024
15 May 2024Before Russia invaded mainland Ukraine on 24 February 2023, many predicted that full-scale conflict would be averted. When the attack began, Russian President Vladimir Putin himself expected a 10-day war, according to think tank RUSI.1 15 May 2024 marks two years, two months and three weeks of fighting, with no end in sight.
Ukrcement, the Ukrainian cement association, recently published its cement market data for 2023, the first full year of the war. The data showed domestic cement consumption of 5.4Mt, up by 17% year-on-year from 4.6Mt in 2022, but down by 49% from pre-war levels of 10.6Mt in 2021. In 2023, Ukraine’s 14.8Mt/yr production capacity was 2.7 times greater than its consumption, compared to 1.4 times in 2021. Of Ukraine’s nine cement plants, one (the 1.8Mt/yr Amwrossijiwka plant in Donetsk Oblast) now lies behind Russian lines. Four others sit within 300km of the front line in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. Among these, the 4.4Mt/yr Balakliia plant in Kharkiv Oblast, the largest in the country, first fell to the Russians, but was subsequently liberated in September 2022.
Before the war, Ukrcement’s members held a 95% share in the local cement market. Their only competitors were Turkish cement exporters across the Black Sea, after the Ukrainian Interdepartmental Commission on International Trade successfully implemented anti-dumping duties against cement from Moldova and now-sanctioned Belarus and Russia in 2019. Since then, Turkish cement, has also become subject to tariffs of 33 – 51% upon entry into Ukraine until September 2026. The relative shortfall in consumption has led Ukraine’s cement producers to lean on their own export markets. They increased their exports by 33% year-on-year to 1.24Mt in 2023, 330,000t (27%) of it to neighbouring Poland.
Russia’s invasion has made 3.5m Ukrainians homeless and put the homes of 2.4m more in need of repair. In a report published in Ukrainian, the US Agency for International Development (USAID) set out its three-year rebuilding plan for the country. USAID projects an investment cost of €451bn, with the ‘main task’ besides homebuilding being to increase the share of industrial production in the economy. Ukraine is 90% equipped to produce all building materials required under the plan. Their production, in turn, will create or maintain 100,000 jobs and US$6.5bn in tax revenues. Reconstruction will also involve the Ukrainian cement industry returning to close to full capacity utilisation, producing 15 – 16Mt/yr of cement.
CRH, an established local player of 25 years, looks best set to claim a share of the proceeds. Stepping down an order of magnitude from billions to millions, Global Cement recently reported CRH’s total investments in Ukraine to date as €465m. Since war broke out, the company has more than tripled its rate of investment, to €74.5m. The Ireland-based group is in the protracted administrative process of acquiring the Ukrainian business of Italy-based Buzzi. If successful, the deal will raise its Ukrainian capacity by 56%, to 8.4Mt/yr – 57% of national capacity. This unusual clumping of ownership may be made possible by the participation of European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in partly acquiring the assets, as per a mandate letter signed with CRH in 2023.
Leading Ukrainian cement buyer Kovalska Industrial-Construction Group bemoaned the anticipated increase in market concentration. On the one hand, this sounds like a classic tiff between cement producers and users with shallow pockets. On the other hand, an antebellum allegation of cement industry cartelisation should give us pause for thought. Non-governmental organisation The Antitrust League previously reported Ukraine’s four cement producers to the government’s Anti-Monopoly Committee for alleged anticompetitive behavior. This was in September 2021, when Ukraine was barely out of lockdown, let alone up in arms. With all that has happened since, it may seem almost ancient history, yet the players are the same, CRH and Buzzi among them.
Ukrcement and its members have secured favourable protections from the Trade Commission, and, for whatever reasons, evaded the inconvenience of investigation by the Anti-Monopoly Committee – a state of affairs over which the Antitrust League called the committee ‘very weak.’ The league says that producers previously raised prices by 35 – 50% in the three years up to 2021. In planning a fair and equitable reconstruction, Ukrainians might reasonably seek assurance that this will not happen again.
All these discussions are subject to a time-based uncertainty: the end of the war in Ukraine. A second question is where the finances might come from. The EU approved funding for €17bn in grants and €33bn in loans for Ukraine on 14 May 2024. Meanwhile, countries including the UK have enacted legislation to ensure Russia settles the cost of the conflict at war’s end. If Ukraine achieves its military aims, then the finances may flow from the same direction as did the armaments that demolished Ukrainian infrastructure in the first place.
The first piece of Ukraine annexed by Russia was Crimea in February 2014, making the invasion over a decade old. Against such a weight of tragedy, the country cannot lose sight of the coming restoration work, and of the need to ensure that it best serve Ukrainians.
Türkiye's cement exports decline
14 May 2024Türkiye: Türkiye's cement exports to Azerbaijan dropped by 10.5% in January - April 2024, to US$16m, compared to the same period in 2023. In April 2024, exports to Azerbaijan fell by 16% to US$4.1m, according to the Turkish Ministry of Trade. Türkiye's global cement exports decreased by 8% to US$1.4bn from January to April 2024. Cement exports in April 2024 experienced a 9.2% year-on-year decline, to US$339m. From April 2023 – April 2024, Türkiye's total cement exports were valued at US$4.5bn.
Türkiye sees rise in cement exports to Georgia
02 May 2024Türkiye/Georgia: Türkiye's exports of cement products to Georgia have increased by 7% year-on-year to US$17m from January to March 2024, according to its Trade Ministry. In March 2024, exports to Georgia reached US$7.6m, representing a 4% year-on-year increase.
However, Türkiye's global cement exports from January to March 2024 fell by 7% to US$1.1bn compared to the same period in 2023. In March 2024, exports were down by 11% year-on-year to US$390m. From March 2023 to March 2024, Türkiye exported cement products worth US$4.5bn.
Türkiye: Exports of cement products from Türkiye to the US have decreased by 12% year-on-year to US$165m from January - March 2024, according to the Türkiye Trade Ministry. The ministry also reported that in March 2024, cement exports to the US fell to US$57.5m, representing a 28% year-on-year decrease. Overall, Türkiye's global cement product exports dropped 7.4% to US$1.1bn in the first quarter of 2024. In March 2024, exports were down 11% at US$390m. Despite these declines, Türkiye achieved cement product exports totalling US$4.5bn from March 2023 - March 2024.
Update on Türkiye, March 2024
13 March 2024TürkÇimento revealed this week that cement production in Türkiye grew by 10.5% year-on-year to 81.5Mt in 2023. In a press release describing the progress of the local cement sector, the cement association reported that domestic sales rose by 19% to 65Mt but that exports fell by 28% to just under 20Mt. Fatih Yücelik, the chair of TürkÇimento, also said that his country was the second largest exporter of cement in the world in 2023 and that its most important target market was the US. He noted that the construction sector grew by 8% during 2023, that reconstruction projects were enacted following earthquakes in early 2023 but that no further growth in domestic sales of cement was anticipated in 2024.
As is standard for these kinds of occasions, Yücelik also raised the association’s sustainability ambitions, describing his sector as one “whose main goal is to provide low-carbon production.” He added that the Turkish cement industry supports the country’s net zero target of 2053. To this end the association has also released its first sustainability report, for 2022, covering 48 of the country’s 52 integrated plants. The Hürriyet Daily News newspaper offered one reason for this enthusiasm for sustainability: the US$30bn in investment required to meet that 2053 net-zero target. It also reported that Yücelik said that the industry needed to spend US$2bn towards meeting the incoming requirements of the European Union Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
Graph 1: Domestic and export cement sales in Türkiye, January – October, 2017 – 2023. Source: TürkÇimento.
TürkÇimento’s data for 2023 currently runs up to October 2023 but it supports Yücelik’s assessment. As can be seen in Graph 1, domestic sales of cement rose sharply in the first 10 months of 2023, by 20% year-on-year to 53.1Mt, yet exports fell almost as abruptly, by 18% to 13Mt. This is noteworthy, as exports had been rising steadily each year since 2018. Italy-based Cementir provided some context here in its annual report for 2023 saying that it had decided to focus on the domestic market due to greater profitability. Heidelberg Materials’ joint-venture Akçansa echoes these comments, blaming declining exports on “historically low freight rates increasing competitiveness of southeast Asian suppliers” while emphasising that the shift to the domestic market was made to meet increasing demand.
Graph 2: Revenue of selected large Turkish cement producers, 2022 - 2023. Source: Company reports.
Financial information from the larger Turkish cement producers that have released their results for 2023 follows the same pattern. Three of the four companies included in Graph 2 saw sales revenue grow in 2023. The one that saw its revenue fall, Nuh Çimento, is a major exporter. In 2022 for example it supplied 18% of the country’s total cement exports. All of these companies saw operating profit or earnings increase though.
The other big Türkiye-based news story this week was that Taiwan Cement Corporation (TCC) completed the latest increase to its stakes of Cimpor Global Holdings joint-ventures in Türkiye and Portugal. TCC now owns a 60% stake of the business in Türkiye and a 100% stake in Portugal. With respect to the business in Türkiye this means that TCC now has control of the country’s largest cement producer, OYAK Çimento. Once again the CBAM received a mention, with TCC saying in its valedictory statement that it believed that, “whether it's domestic or imported cement, low-carbon cement will become the main competitive advantage for the cement companies entering the European market.”
The domestic market in Türkiye may have seen a bounce in 2023 but the attention of both TürkÇimento, TCC and others are firmly set on the wider market in the region. TürkÇimento’s Fatih Yücelik said that the country’s cement production capacity was 120Mt/yr and that the population would have to be 150m to eliminate the need for exports. Its population is currently just under 85m. Yücelik set a value of US$2bn for his sector to adjust to CBAM but he also remarked that the income from exports in 2023 was around US$1.3bn. This is not an easy investment ‘pill’ to swallow but one that the country will have to digest if it wants to keep its export levels up.
Cementir Holding raises earnings in 2023
12 March 2024Italy: Cementir Holding’s sales were Euro1.69bn in 2023, down by 1.7% year-on-year from Euro1.72bn in 2022. Its operating costs were Euro1.44bn, down by 8% from Euro1.33bn. As a result, the company increased its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) by 23% to Euro411m from Euro335m. Cement and clinker sales volumes fell by 1.6% year-on-year to 10.7Mt due to a general market slowdown, though they rose in China and Türkiye.
Chair and CEO Francesco Caltagirone said “Despite an increasingly uncertain macroeconomic scenario due to growing geopolitical tensions and more restrictive monetary conditions, in 2023 the group demonstrated significant resilience, setting new records thanks to an even more diversified geographical and product mix. The general weakness in volumes, with the exception of Türkiye and China, was balanced by the improvement in operational efficiency.”
Türkiye: The Turkish cement industry needs to invest approximately US$30bn to achieve its net-zero carbon goal by 2053, according to sector representatives. Additionally, around US$2bn is required to adhere to the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), according to Fatih Yücelik, chair of the Turkish Cement Manufacturers’ Association (TÜRKÇİMENTO).
Yücelik said “The most important issue for us this year is carbon emissions. The amount of investments to be made swiftly in transformation and efficiency work to overcome the barriers created by the CBAM is around US$2bn. However, under the current situation, it is difficult for us to find this financing.”
There are 77 factories producing cement in Türkiye, according to Yücelik. “They all use kilns which heavily consume energy. We are establishing waste heat recovery facilities. The amount of electricity generated by those units can power 618,000 homes,” he said. The industry also faces rising operational costs, with energy comprising about 80% of these expenses.
Portugal: Taiwan Cement Corporation has purchased the remaining 60% stake of Cimpor Portugal from the Turkish group OYAK, giving it 100% ownership of the company. This acquisition, valued at €480m, also includes taking over a majority stake in Türkiye, making Taiwan Cement Corporation the ‘third largest player’ in the global cement market, according to the company. The deal strengthens the group’s presence in Portugal, Cape Verde, Ivory Coast, Cameroon and Ghana, aligning with its global expansion and sustainability-focused investments in renewable energy and technology.
Cimpor's chairman Suat Çalbiyik said "This operation represents a very important step in the company's growth and makes it a world reference in cement production."
Türkiye: Aşkale Çimento has appointed Furkan Sağlam as its Marketing and Sales Chief. He has worked at the company since 2000 in sales and marketing roles. Prior to this he worked for Gözen Holding. He holds business administration degrees from Giresun University in Türkiye and Uniwersytet WSB Merito Gdańsk in Poland.
Osman Nemli resigns as head of Bursa Çimento
31 January 2024Türkiye: Osman Nemli has resigned as the general manager of Bursa Çimento. No reason for his departure has been disclosed. He had been in post for eight years according to local media. Barbaros Onulay, the head of subsidiary Bursa Beton, will act as the general manager until the company’s board of directors appoints a replacement.