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Update on the European construction equipment market
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
20 March 2019
There was lots to mull over in the latest Committee for European Construction Equipment (CECE) Annual Economic Report. The headlines were that the construction industry market peaked in 2017 and that the mining industry was still recovering, but maybe slowing, in 2018.
For the construction industry the CECE reported that a growth period from 2008 to 2018 reached a high level of growth of 4.1% in 2017. This fell to 2.8% growth in 2018 and is forecast to drop to 2% growth in 2019. It put this in terms of the sector having a cyclical nature, normally of around eight years. This means it believes a downturn is overdue. Slowing gross domestic product (GDP) growth and tighter financial and monetary conditions are expected to drag on the residential sector. The non-residential side is growing by more than 1.5% in Europe but it has started to following the residential sector. It also noted the ‘very poor’ performance of the infrastructure sector due to government under-investment.
Graph 1: GDP vs Construction Output, year-on-year change (%). Source: Euroconstruct & CECE.
The construction equipment sector saw sales rise by 11% in 2018, bringing it to only 10% below the high recorded in 2007. The CECE reported that the rate of growth for concrete equipment was becoming ‘less dynamic’ after four years of growth. Sales in Europe grew by 17% in 2018 but there was a wide difference between northern and southern countries. France and Germany had 9% and 14% growth respectively but Italy and Spain had 23% and 60% growth respectively. Looking at product groups, truck mixer sales and batching plant sales were particularly strong, with growth rates over 10%. Overall, most countries experienced growth, with the exception of Turkey.
Graph 2: Growth rates in construction equipment sales by product groups in Europe, year-on-year change (%). Source: CECE.
Looking globally, the CECE said that Europe ‘slightly underperformed’ in 2018 as worldwide equipment sales grew by a fifth. It attributed this to the return of emerging markets, led by China and India. Sales in Latin America recovered with a rise of 15% but Brazil, notably, was not part of this trend. North America and Oceania had growth rates of around 20% but the Middle East and Africa saw declining sales. The CECE forecasts global equipment sales growth of 5 – 10% in 2019 subject to there being no trade wars.
Tying into this, the German Mechanical Engineering Industry Association (VDMA) said today that Sebastian Popp, its Deputy Managing Director, described cement plant equipment manufacturers as a ‘drag’ on the rest of the building materials plant sector. His words were from an event that took place earlier in March 2019. Overall incoming order and turnover fell in 2018. He blamed this on a cement market characterised by overcapacity. However, if cement plant engineering was removed from the calculations then the incoming orders of German building material plant manufacturers would have risen by 17% year-on-year and turnover by 16%.
None of this is encouraging for the European cement equipment manufacturers. However, as we said in February 2019 (GCW 390), the market is changing and so too are the suppliers. A period of transition is to be expected. Recent good news from Denmark’s FLSmidth include an order for a new plant in Paraguay and sales figures for its vertical roller mills in 2018. Russia’s Eurocement ordered three mills from Germany’s Gebr. Pfeiffer just last week.
2018 for the cement multinationals
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
13 March 2019
All the major multinational cement producers reported growing sales in 2018. Yet, the big growth was found outside of Europe, with China Resources Cement (CRC), Ultratech Cement and Dangote Cement all posting sales revenue growth of above 10%. Similarly, cement sales volumes continued to rise. CRC and Ultratech Cement were the standouts here, with the latter benefitting from its acquisitions including, most recently, Binani Cement. Concrete sales volumes were the same, rising for all the companies with the exception of Buzzi Unicem. It suffered market issues in Italy and Germany.
Graph 1: Sales revenue from selected multinational cement producers in 2017 and 2018 (Euro billions). Source: Company financial reports.
Graph 2: Cement sales volumes from selected multinational cement producers in 2017 and 2018 (Mt). Source: Company financial reports.
Graph 3: Ready-mixed concrete sales volumes from selected multinational concrete producers in 2017 and 2018 (Mm3). Source: Company financial reports.
With the major Chinese producers, including CNBM and Anhui Conch, yet to release their annual results for 2018, CRC is included in this roundup to give an idea of how that market is performing. Both CNBM and Anhui Conch have released profit alerts anticipating bumper results in 2018 though. This is likely due to boosted local cement prices.
The major story for the European-based producers was one of asset sales and debt reduction. LafargeHolcim returned to positive income in 2018 with a focus on its Strategy 2022 programme. HeidelbergCement’s earnings were hit by poor weather in the US and insufficient divestments. Cemex, although based in Mexico, retains a significant European presence and so it included here. It suffered from poor sales outside of its base in Mexico and the US. CRH continued on its trajectory as the world’s biggest building materials company with solid sales and earnings growth. Interestingly though given its expansion strategy in recent years CRH’s debt to earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBTIDA) ratio remains better than the other three majors above, even after its purchase of Ash Grove Cement in mid-2018 taken into account. Although other financial comparisons are worth considering, such as EBITDA margin.
Despite Cemex’s relatively high net debt compared to its peers it has been cutting its debt the fastest, at 8% to US$10.4bn in 2018. Its current plan is to reach an ‘investment-grade’ balance sheet by 2020. LafargeHolcim and HeidelbergCement are in ‘cuts’ mode leading to all sorts of speculation about where they might sell next. The wilder rumours in the press include preparations by LafargeHolcim to sell its entire operation in the Middle East and Africa. Similar tales about a sale in the Philippines are more credible but remain unconfirmed. HeidelbergCement is keeping its cards closer to its chest but poor performing territories that might be up for sale include some of its Italian plants and parts of Africa.
Of the larger producers without a European presence, Ultratech Cement has been negatively effected by energy costs during the nine months to the end of 2018 with its income and EBITDA down. Dangote Cement’s performance in 2018 was driven by sales at home in Nigeria although earnings elsewhere continued to grow.
With all of this in mind the scene appears set for a breakout by a major Chinese producer to buy a big bolt-on acquisition or expansion by regional or national players along the lines of that seen by Semen Indonesia or UltraTech Cement. Taiwan Cement has been ahead here with its purchase of a 40% stake in Turkey’s Oyak Cement but what we’re really waiting for is a majority position within a country or territory. At which point CNBM and the like will have earned its place in the 2019 version of this article. Perhaps the age of truly multinational cement producer is coming to an end as regional players become more prominent.
Update on Argentina - 2019
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
06 March 2019
Cementos Molins’ financial results took a tumble this week, in part due to the poorly performing Argentinian economy. A decrease in sales in Mexico was also to blame but rampant inflation in Argentina caused the Spanish cement producer problems.
Cementos Molins owns a 51% stake in Cementos Avellaneda, with Brazil’s Votorantim Cimentos owning the remainder. Molins took pains in its financial report to point out that the aggregate rate of inflation had been 109% in mid-2018. Accordingly, its income and earnings in 2018 would have been much better if the economy had been in a better state. As it was, its income fell by 24% year-on-year to Euro134m and its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) dropped by 30% to Euro30.3m. Adjusted for negative inflationary effects these should have risen by 43% and 31% in 2018.
Graph 1: Construction activity in Argentina (year-on-year growth, %). Source: El Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos de la República Argentina (INDEC).
Graph 2: Monthly changes in cement despatches in Argentina (year-on-year growth, %). Source: Asociación de Fabricantes de Cemento Portland (AFCP).
The other major local producers, Loma Negra and LafargeHolcim Argentina, are owned by Brazil’s InterCement and Switzerland’s LafargeHolcim respectively. Both companies are due to present their financial results later this week but the signs were not looking good earlier in the financial year. In its third quarter results Loma Negra said that the general economy was dragging on cement demand. Construction activity data from El Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos de la República Argentina (INDEC) showed that growth nosedived in mid-2018. This corresponds roughly with falling year-on-year cement despatches. Loma Negra noted that the depreciation of the Argentine Peso was hitting its bottom line and that its cement sales volumes dropped by 6.2% to 1.61Mt in the third quarter of 2018 from 1.72Mt in the same period in 2017. Despite this, its net revenue grew by 42.3% in the nine months to the end of September 2018.
Understandably, much of the talk in Loma Negra’s third quarter earnings call was about the effects of local currency depreciation with questions about how the expenditure for its L’Amalí plant expansion project was split between different currencies or how fuel costs were being affected. More revealing though was information about Loma Negra’s plans to reduce production capacity as national demand falls. Chief executive officer (CEO) Sergio Faifman said that the production cost at L’Amalí would be US$15/t less than the national average and that its Olavarría and Barker integrated plants would be first in line for production cuts given their closeness to L’Amalí.
Holcim Argentina reported ‘significant’ growth until May 2018 in its third quarter report. From here its sales fell and it expected zero growth for the year as a whole. It blamed this on the state of the general economy, the lower attractiveness of mortgages in the residential sector and problems with infrastructure project financing. Its sales volumes of cement rose by 6.4% year-on-year to 2.54Mt in the first nine months of 2018 from 2.39Mt in the same period in 2017. Holcim Argentina also has an upgrade project underway, at its Malagueño cement plant near Córdoba. Once completed by the end of 2019, the project is expected to increase the unit’s production capacity by 0.73Mt to over 3Mt/yr.
The problems facing the Argentine cement producers are clearly due to the poor general economy. The government took a US$56bn loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in mid-2018 to shore up the situation. Since then the Argentinean Peso seems to have stabilised against the US Dollar and inflation has settled. At this point the question is whether this is the bottom of the economic trough. The other thing to note is that Argentina has faced economic problems at the same time as Turkey. Although Turkey has a much bigger cement industry, both countries are prominent cement producers in their regions.
The sad thing though is that the local cement market was facing shortages in late 2017, producers were investing in new production capacity and Loma Negra launched an initial public offering (IPO). All of this growth in the cement industry has been jeopardised by the general economy. Let’s hope it rebounds soon.
Update on the UAE
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
27 February 2019
The UAE is having a moment. Over the last week Fujairah Natural Resources, a new entrant to cement, said it is going to build a clinker plant at Habbab in Fujairah. It’s also looking likely that Raysut Cement might buy UAE-based Fujairah Cement Company’s shares in Sohar Cement in Oman. Then, Ras Al Khaimah (RAK) Cement announced that it had purchased the Newtech cement plant. What’s happening here?
The last couple of years have been tough ones for Emirati cement producers, which have been fighting falling sales and beleaguered profits. The largest producer, Arkan Building Materials - a group majority controlled by the Abu Dhabi government, reported flat sales growth for the first nine months of 2018. It blamed this on falling sales of clinker due to imports from Iran and a tough pricing environment. Its profits were hit by rising clinker production costs due to its reliance on imported limestone from Oman whilst it resolves problems with its own local quarry. Arkan had closed its Emirates Cement plant in Al Ain following revenue and profit falls in 2016. This story thread reached its end earlier in February 2019 when Arkan sold the closed plant for around US$14m. National Cement reported a similar experience in its nine months results, with growing revenue but sales sapped by mounting costs.
Data from Riyad Capital in early-2018 suggested that the UAE only consumes about half of its own cement production. The rest is exported to the Middle East and North African region, particularly Oman and Egypt, and African countries. The country has 14 integrated cement plants with a production capacity of 31.4Mt/yr and eight grinding plants with a capacity of 10.4Mt/yr. These are owned by a mixture of local companies and multinationals.
The European producers still have a presence through LafargeHolcim’s Lafarge Emirates plant in Fujairah and a grinding plant run by Cemex. Although how long LafargeHolcim will remain seems uncertain given a report by Bloomberg earlier in February 2019 suggesting that the group is seriously looking at exiting the Middle East and Africa. Oman’s Raysut Cement holds a plant too via its Pioneer Cement subsidiary but the majority of the foreign-owned plants are Indian. Their presence has been steadily growing.
Aditya Birla/UltraTech Cement, JK Cement and Shree Cement all run plants in the UAE and JSW Cement said in mid-2018 that it was going to build a 1Mt/yr integrated plant in Fujairah. UltraTech Cement renamed its grinding plant UltraTech Nathdwara Cement in December 2018. This plant was formerly a Binani Cement plant and part of the rancorous bidding war between UltraTech Cement and Dalmia Bharat.
The background to all of this has been a country that is very willing to spend big on infrastructure projects when the need arises. Forbes reckoned, for example, that the UAE had awarded US$20.7bn on infrastructure projects in 2018 in the first nine months of 2018. Impending projects like the Expo 2020 are still generating construction activity and longer ones like Dubai Metro are in progress. However, the country is in a dynamic place geographically between the two-major economic and cement-producing powerhouses of Saudi Arabia and Iran. For the cement industry this explains the prominence of the grinding sector and the growing interest from Indian companies looking to expand overseas. For the new project and acquisition this week it’s looking more like local variation in the market at this stage. In this context though the fourth quarter results from local producers will make interesting reading to see if anything bigger is going on.
Update on Turkey
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
20 February 2019
One of the more interesting news stories in recent weeks was the completion of Oyak Cement’s acquisition of Cimpor. Previously we focused on the connection to Taiwan Cement (GCW377). Around the same time that the Oyak-Cimpor deal was announced in late October 2018 the Taiwanese company bought a 40% stake in the Turkish cement producer for around US$640m. However, as the world’s sixth largest cement producer by cement production capacity, Turkey is always a country worth keeping an eye on for both the Oyak deal and the wider industry.
Graph 1: Turkish domestic cement sales, 2007 - 2017. Source: Turkish Cement Manufacturers' Association (TÇMB).
Graph 2: Turkish cement and clinker exports, 2007 - 2017. Source: Turkish Cement Manufacturers' Association (TÇMB).
Data from the Turkish Cement Manufacturers' Association (TÇMB) shows that domestic cement sales have been rising steadily to 72.2Mt in 2017 after a blip in the late 2000s. So far 2018 has not kept the trend, with a drop of 2.01% year-on-year to 50.8Mt for the first nine months of 2018 from 51.8Mt in the same period in 2017. Turkey is also a major exporter of cement so these are the other figures to watch. After hitting a high of nearly 18Mt in 2010 they dropped for five years before rising again. The ratio of clinker in the exports total has also been growing recently. LIke domestic production ,exports were down at the nine month mark in 2018, by 1.8% to 9.9Mt, but the ratio of clinker exports has continued to grow.
Given the focus on exports for the Turkish market Oyak Cement’s international purchases via Cimpor widen its options. The deal covered assets in Portugal and Cape Verde including three integrated cement plants and two mills, with a total cement production capacity of 9.1Mt/yr. It’s not clear yet how Oyak wants to run its new foreign plants but it might be tempting to focus on a grinding model abroad using imported Turkish clinker depending on running costs. Back home in Turkey Oyak Cement is the largest local producer with a 15% market share. It operates seven integrated plants with a production capacity of 16Mt/yr according to Global Cement Directory 2019 data.
As for the other major companies, Akçansa, a joint venture of Sabancı Holding and HeidelbergCement, saw its sales rise by 4% to US$277m in 2017. Its sales volumes of cement and clinker rose but its exports fell by 13% to 1.3Mt. In its third quarter report for 2018 HeidelbergCement highlighted issues with the local economy such as high inflation, a currency crisis and a resulting loss of confidence.Sabancı also holds a majority stake in the other major producer, Çimsa Çimento. At the six month mark Çimsa Çimento reported that its sales grew by 35% year-on-year to US$162m and its net profit increased by 55% to US$23.2m. Notably, Çimsa also runs a number of international terminals in Germany, Italy, Spain, the disputed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and Russia, with distribution operations in Romania and the US also.
As mentioned above the general Turkish economy faced problems in 2018 when the value of the Turkish Lira dropped sharply in mid-2018 and interest rates soared. This led to a reduction in industrial output. On the cement side this is likely visible in falling local sales in 2018 and the switch to exports. Raw materials have also risen in this environment leading the president of the TÇMB to reassure the construction industry that the price of cement would not rise too sharply in 2019. Some of the eye-watering input hikes that he cited included a 76% rise in electricity costs, a 182% rise in the price of coal and a 170% rise in the price of petcoke. With this kind of backdrop the 2018 annual results for the Turkish producers may not make easy reading. Yet this also may explain why Oyak Cement moved overseas and allowed Taiwan Cement to invest in it when it did. Looking more widely it seems exports are likely to grow in the near future.