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Update on Pakistan, April 2024
Written by Jacob Winskell, Global Cement
24 April 2024
Changes are underway in South Asia’s second largest cement sector, with two legal developments that affect the industry set in motion in the past week. At a national level, the Competition Commission of Pakistan recommended that the government require cement producers to include production and expiry dates on the labels of bagged cement. Meanwhile, in Pakistan’s largest province, Punjab, a new law tightened procedures around the establishment and expansion of cement plants. At the same time, the country’s cement producers began to publish their financial results for the first nine months of the 2024 financial year (FY2024).
During the nine-month period up to 31 March 2024, the Pakistani cement industry sold 34.5Mt of cement, up by 3% year-on-year. Producers have responded to the growth with capacity expansions, including the launch of the new 1.3Mt/yr Line 3 of Attock Cement’s Hub cement plant in Balochistan on 17 April 2023. China-based contractor Hefei Cement Research & Design executed the project, including installation of a Loesche LM 56.3+3 CS vertical roller mill, giving the Hub plant a new, expanded capacity of 3Mt/yr.
Pressure has eased on the operating costs of Pakistani cement production, as inflation slowed and the country received a new government in March 2024, following political unrest in 2022 and 2023. Coal prices also settled back to 2019 levels, after prolonged agitation. Pakistan Today News reported the value of future coal supply contracts as US$93/t for June 2024, down by 2% over six months from US$95/t for January 2024.
Nonetheless, cost optimisation remained a ‘strong focus’ in the growth strategy of Fauji Cement, which switched to using local and Afghan coal at its plants during the past nine months. Its reliance on captive power rose to 60% of consumption, thanks to its commissioning of new waste heat recovery and solar power capacity. During the first nine months of FY2024, the company’s year-on-year sales growth of 14% narrowly offset cost growth of 13%, leaving it with net profit growth of 1%.
Looking more closely, the latest sales data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) shows a stark divergence within cement producers’ markets. While exports recorded 68% year-on-year growth to 5.1Mt, domestic sales fell, by 4% to 29.4Mt. The association further breaks down Pakistani cement sales data into South Pakistan (Balochistan and Sindh) and North Pakistan (all other regions). Domestic sales dropped most sharply in South Pakistan, by 6% to 5.16Mt. In the North, they dropped by 3% to 24.2Mt. Part of the reason was a high base of comparison, following flooding-related reconstruction work nationally during the 2023 financial year. Meanwhile, the government finished rolling out track-and-trace on all cement despatches during the opening months of the current financial year, and commenced the implementation of axle load requirements for cement trucks. APCMA flagged both policies as potentially disruptive to its members’ domestic deliveries, amid a strong infrastructure project pipeline.
Pakistani producers suffer from overcapacity, but have established themselves as an important force in the global export market. They continue to locate new markets, including the UK in January 2024. Lucky Cement was among leading exporters overall, with a large share of its orders originating from Africa.
On 17 April 2024, the government of Punjab province set up a committee to assess new proposed cement projects, with the ultimate goal of conserving water. Falling water tables are considered a significant economic threat in agricultural Punjab. Besides completing an inspection by the new committee, proposed projects must also secure clearance from six different provincial government departments and the local government. While acknowledging the necessity of the cement industry, the government insisted that it will take legal action against any cement plant that exceeds water allowances.
Pakistan’s cement plants have grown in anticipation of a local market boom. Without this strong core of sales, underutilisation will remain troublesome, especially in North Pakistan where exposure is highest. At the same time, APCMA has given expression to the perceived lack of support affecting production and distribution. For an industry with expansionist aims, new restrictions on its growth and operations can feel like an existential menace.
- Pakistan
- Analysis
- market
- Overcapacity
- oversupply
- Expansion
- growth
- costs
- Coal
- inflation
- economy
- Government
- politics
- Loesche
- Lucky Cement
- Hefei Cement Research & Design Institute
- Attock Cement
- UK
- Africa
- Export
- demand
- Consumption
- Sales
- trade
- Regulations
- Water
- All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association
- APCMA
- GCW656
- Belt and Road
- data
- deliveries
- despatches
What happened to Tianrui Cement?
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
17 April 2024
The stock market price of Tianrui Cement crashed by a staggering 99% last week. On 9 April 2024, during the last 15 minutes of trading at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the price of shares in the company dropped from around US$0.64 to below US$0.01. Its market capitalisation swung from US$1.8bn to US$18m in a quarter of an hour. The cement producer then suspended trading shares the following morning. It said trading would remain halted until it made a formal announcement about the situation. At the time of writing that announcement is still forthcoming. The question on everyone’s minds is, “What happened?!”
On its website Tianrui Cement describes itself as “one of the 12 national cement enterprises supported by the Chinese government.” It is part of Tianrui Group and it listed itself on the Hong Kong Exchange in late 2011. By the end of 2020 it had 22 clinker production lines and 59 cement grinding units with a total cement production capacity of just under 58Mt/yr. It describes itself as the “leading clinker producer in Henan and Liaoning Provinces” and the ninth biggest clinker producer by capacity in the country.
Unfortunately, as reported by Global Cement Weekly earlier in April 2024, the cement market in China was tough in 2023. This has continued into the first quarter of 2024 with cement output falling by 12% year-on-year to 337Mt. Tianrui Cement, like many other China-based cement producers, reported falling sales and profits in 2023. Its revenue decreased by 29% year-on-year to US$1.09bn from US$1.58bn and it made a loss of US$87.6m compared to a profit of US$62m. Its cement sales volumes fell by 9% to 25.2Mt and it noted that the average price also fell by 22%. It blamed the fall in revenue on the lower volumes and prices. Profits and earnings suffered in turn as it couldn’t cut its costs fast enough.
Aside from the general poor state of the property market in China there has been little information about what actually happened to Tianrui Cement on 9 April 2024. Reuters reported speculation amongst financial sources that the company may have become subject to a margin call. In this situation an investor that has borrowed money to invest in shares has to provide additional funds if the value of the shares fall below a certain point. Bloomberg said that the controlling shareholder Li Liufa and his spouse jointly own approximately 70% of the company. It noted the risks of companies with a high concentration of shareholders and those that use shares as debt collateral. In this situation a large sale of shares could potentially trigger a panic as there might not be enough buyers.
Within China the Financial Associated Press (CLS) reported that three other companies listed on the Hong Kong Exchange had also experienced severe stock market volatility at the same time as Tianrui Cement. None of these other companies are in the building materials sector. Following the drop in its share price, Tianrui Cement told local media that the company was operating normally. Its spokesperson wondered whether the plunge in share value was due to small shareholders selling up. Coverage of local media by the China Cement Association explored the theory that the market was jittery about the poor state of the cement industry in China. Suspicions about the company’s debt structure were also raised.
From a western point of view the meteoric rise of the cement industry in China over the last 20 years has always carried the fear of a hard landing once the period of growth ended. The trick for the government and cement manufacturing is how to transition to lower levels of cement production without causing a recession. So, extreme stock volatility for a major cement producer in China is exactly what a cynical external observer might expect. China has a couple of exit routes up its sleeve though from the state-controlled nature of its economy, to how it approaches its net zero commitments, to the unreliability of its data, to exporting production capacity overseas and so on. This leaves us waiting to see what Tianrui Cement has to say to the market about what happened and what happens next. One share price crash for a cement producer might be forgivable. Two, however, might be seen as a sign of something else.
Update on France, April 2024
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
10 April 2024
Heidelberg Materials announced this week that it is preparing to close its integrated cement plants at Beffes and Villiers-au-Bouin in France by October 2025. It framed the restructuring as a response to ‘a significant decline in cement sales in France’ and a plan to focus on low-carbon products. Unfortunately, local media reported that around 170 jobs will be lost at the two sites. The company says it is looking at ‘socially acceptable solutions’ including redeployment to other locations in the country.
Investment has been forthcoming from Heidelberg Materials France in recent years. It reminded everyone that it initiated a Euro400m scheme at its France-based subsidiary Ciments Calcia in late 2020. Most of this was earmarked towards a new production line at the Airvault plant, which is currently being built. Other schemes at the Beaucaire, Bussac-Forêt and Couvrot integrated plants followed. More recently, Heidelberg Materials launched a carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) project at Airvault, part of the GOCO2 initiative, with the aim of starting initial capture in 2030 with full 1Mt/yr capture planned later. What the company didn’t mention though was at the time of that 2020 investment it was also preparing to convert the integrated Gargenville plant into a grinding unit, stop white cement production at its Cruas plant with the intention of turning the site into a terminal and it wanted to reduce its workforce by around 140. To be fair to Heidelberg Materials though, it did have the same goal of reducing its specific net CO2 emissions. The added detail this week was that the group aims to generate half of its revenue from sustainable products that are either low-carbon or circular by 2030.
Heidelberg Materials France is not alone with its ambitions for low-carbon products. Holcim notably opened in early 2023 what it said was the first calcined clay unit in Europe at its Saint-Pierre-la-Cour cement plant. Heidelberg Materials then followed in May 2023 with the announcement of a calcined clay project at its Bussac-Forêt cement plant. Other clay projects from Vicat, NeoCem and Neo-Eco have been reported since then. The other prominent France-based blended cement producer that has steadily been building its business in recent years is Hoffmann Green Cement. More general plant upgrade projects that are also worth mentioning include Eqiom’s (CRH) upgrade to its Lumbres plant in February 2024 and the ignition of a new kiln at Lafarge France’s Martres-Tolosane plant in October 2023. Both of these projects have been framed as driving sustainability.
Graph 1: Cement production in France, 2014 - 2022. Source: France Ciment.
Heidelberg Materials’ assessment about the poor state of the cement market has been confirmed by local media. Sales reportedly started falling in 2022, were down by 6% year-on-year in 2023 and further downward pressure is expected in 2024. Production data shown in Graph 1 above released by France Ciment, the national cement association, doesn’t really show what has been happening with sales. Over the last 20 years production hit a high of around 22Mt in the mid-2000s before settling around 16 - 17Mt/yr from 2015 onwards. The more telling trend, perhaps, has been the increase in CEM II blended cements from 50% in 2012 to 64% in 2022. Cement production may have stayed roughly the same over the last decade but it is using less clinker than it used to. Hence the pressure on companies like Ciments Calcia to reduce clinker capacity.
A further cost pressure facing cement producers in France is the impending end to the price cap on electricity scheduled by the end of 2025. The government enacted the scheme in late 2021 at the end of the Covid-19 pandemic, but then carried on as energy prices spiked following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. France Ciment lobbied in August 2023 for further protection for the sector using the argument that decarbonisation was not possible without electricity available for a reasonable price. It added that decarbonising the cement sector in France with carbon capture would cost around Euro3.5bn. Electricity prices started rising in February 2024 as part of the government’s phase out of the scheme.
Finally, 17 people were arrested on 5 April 2024 in connection with a demonstration at Lafarge France’s Val-de-Reuil ready-mixed concrete plant in Eure. Environmental activists reportedly trespassed on the site, according to local press, causing an estimated Euro450,000 in damages with acts such as spraying foam into machinery, ripping up bags of cement, breaking windows and more. The activists presented their actions as a response to both the environmental impact of cement and concrete production and the ongoing legal allegations about Lafarge’s actions in Syria in the early 2010s. Lafarge France’s La Malle integrated plant was also similarly targeted in December 2022 when around 200 activists stormed the site and caused damage to machinery and property. Lafarge’s response at the time was to remark that there was a feeling of misunderstanding given that the La Malle plant was piloting various decarbonisation methods.
All of this presents a febrile picture of the cement sector in France. Sales are down, electricity costs are set to go up and producers are switching to low-carbon cement products. Alongside this they are also closing clinker production plants but are also investing in new decarbonisation projects. At the same time environmental protestors have also been targeting cement and concrete plants and Lafarge’s association with its former actions in Syria appear to have made it more of a target than the other manufacturers. It is unsurprising then that Holcim, the parent company of Lafarge France, has raised the risk of damage to the group’s reputation, with both the general public and investors, should it fail to meet its targets. Reaching net zero was never going to be easy but setting unrealistic targets is increasingly not an option.
- France
- Heidelberg Materials France
- Heidelberg Materials
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- Closure
- carbon capture, utilisation & storage
- grinding plant
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- Lafarge France
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- VICAT
- NeoCem
- NeoEco
- Hoffmann Green Cement Technologies
- France Ciment
- blended cement
- Ciments Calcia
- GCW654
- Electricity
- Protest
- target
Update on China, April 2024
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
03 April 2024
We turn to look at the Chinese cement sector now that the larger China-based cement producers have released their financial results for 2023. In summary, national output of cement has continued to fall and many of the bigger companies are reporting weakening sales and profits. Yet this trend appears to be slowing, with a few of the producers managing to grow revenue, profits and sales volumes.
Graph 1: Cement output in China, 2018 to 2023. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China shows that cement output fell by 4.5% year-on-year from 2.11Bnt in 2022 to 2.02Bnt in 2023. This is a slower rate of decline than the 10.4% drop reported between 2021 and 2022. However, it is worth noting that the rate of decrease in output on a half-year basis fell strongly in the first half of 2023 but remained similar in the second half of the year. In its commentary, the China Cement Association (CCA) said that the country’s real estate development investment fell by 10% year-on-year to US$1.53tn.
Graph 2: Sales revenue from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.
Graph 3: Sales volumes of cement and clinker from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.
Unlike in 2022 the two graphs above show that not every cement producer has lost revenue or sales volumes of cement in 2023. CNBM chair Zhou Yuxian used the phrase ‘storms and challenges’ to describe the situation faced by the world’s largest cement company. He left president Wei Rushan to deliver the bad news that the cement industry as a whole faced “insufficient demand, weakening expectations and weakening off-peak season characteristics” along with surpluses and high costs. He said that the cement sector in China saw its profit fall by 50% to US$4.42bn in 2023, its lowest figure since the mid-2000s.
In comparison CNBM Group’s revenue fell by 10% year-on-year to US$29bn and profit by 52% to US$534m. This was principally due to losses from the group’s basic building materials division, the section that makes heavy building materials, including cement. Alongside this, it pushed on with its supply-side structural reforms, implemented staggered peak production and worked on sustainability initiatives. These included preparations for the national carbon emissions trading scheme. Anhui Conch’s results showed that it managed to increase its revenue but its sales volumes of cement dropped and its profits fell by 33% to US$1.48bn. It achieved the boost in revenue by growing its trading business.
Of the smaller companies covered here, only Huaxin Cement managed to grow its revenue in 2023. It appeared to pull this off by growing its concrete and aggregate business domestically whilst growing the business overseas at the same time. The share of its international business grew to 16% in 2023 from 13% in 2022. Major overseas acquisitions in 2023 included Oman Cement and InterCement’s subsidiaries in Mozambique and South Africa. More recently Huaxin Cement has also been reported by local media as the preferential bidder for InterCement’s business in Brazil, although no formal announcement has been made. Of the rest, Tangshan Jidong Cement, CRBMT and China Tianrui all reported declines in sales revenue and profits. Tangshan Jidong Cement did manage to grow its cement sales volumes, but reported heightened competition in the north and north-east of China where most of its plants are located.
With the first quarter results for 2024 on the way soon, the CCA has been bracing itself and the sector for more bad news. It noted that national cement prices during the last week of March 2024 were about 1% lower than during the same week in 2023. Prices were lower in East, Central and South China, although they had increased in Chengdu and Sichuan. The CCA is worried that a price war, either nationally or regionally, will make a bad situation worse. It has called on cement producers to accept that the slowdown of infrastructure development in the country has led to a decline in cement demand and that this is the new normal. Apart from the usual watchwords of ‘self-discipline,’ ‘overcapacity reduction’ and ‘supply-side reforms’ the association has suggested that cement companies look for growth internationally and look to the leadership of associations to help everyone adapt to the new market situation. China’s sales output of cement may be starting to stabilise, but the market has a way to go yet to adapt to the new reality.
Decarbonising the cement sector in the US, March 2024
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
27 March 2024
The US Department of Energy (DOE) announced a US$1.6bn investment in the cement sector this week. The funding was part of a total of US$6bn for 33 projects in over 20 states to decarbonise energy-intensive industries also including chemicals and refining, iron and steel, aluminium and metals, food and beverages, glass, process heat applications and pulp and paper. The DOE was keen to link the money to “the President’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act.” Politics is never far away it seems! The projects are part of the Industrial Demonstrations Program, managed by DOE’s Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations (OCED).
Company | State | Funding | Scale | Method |
Heidelberg Materials US | Indiana | US$500m | Full | CCS |
National Cement | California | US$500m | Full | Alternative fuels, calcined clay, CCS |
Summit Materials | Georgia, Maryland, Texas | US$216m | Demonstration | Calcined clay |
Brimstone Energy | TBD | US$189m | Commercial | Raw material substitution |
Sublime Systems | Massachusetts | US$87m | Commercial | Raw material substitution |
Roanoke Cement | Virginia | US$62m | Demonstration | Calcined clay |
Table 1: Summary of US Department of Energy funding announced on March 2024 to decarbonise cement and concrete production
Table 1 above shows the main approaches each of the projects aim to use. The two most expensive ones involve carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) at Heidelberg Materials US’ Mitchell cement plant in Indiana and National Cement’s Lebec plant in California respectively. In a complimentary press release Chris Ward, the CEO of Heidelberg Materials North America, said “This substantial federal funding investment will help create the first full-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage on a cement plant in the US.” The proposed CCS unit at the plant will capture around 2Mt/yr of CO2 from 2030. If Ward’s forecast is accurate (and no one beats them to it), then Heidelberg Materials will likely have set up the first full-scale CCS units at cement plants in both North America and Europe. This will be a significant achievement. The National Cement project, by contrast, is a mixed bag of approaches to decarbonising cement production that follows the multi-lever approach advocated for in many of the industry net-zero roadmaps. It intends to use agricultural by-products such as pistachio shells, as alternatives fuels to lower the fuel-based emissions, calcined clay to lower the clinker factor and CCS to capture the remaining 950,000t/yr of CO2 emissions.
The other projects either involve using calcined clay or substituting limestone with calcium silicate. The Summit Materials proposal is noteworthy because it aims to build four clay calcination units in locations in Maryland, Georgia and Texas. None of these appear to be near Summit’s (or Cementos Argos’) cement plants. This suggests that the company may be intending to use calcined clay in ready-mixed concrete production. The Roanoke Cement Company calcined clay project will be baseEuropead at its cement plant in Troutville, Virginia.
The remaining two grant recipients, Brimstone and Sublime Systems, will both test the companies’ different methods of manufacturing cement by using calcium silicate instead of limestone. Brimstone’s method produces ordinary Portland cement (OPC) and supplementary cementitious materials (SCM). The company said in July 2023 that its OPC met the ASTM C150 standards. However, the company has released less information about its actual process. Sublime Systems’ uses an electrolysis approach to create its ASTM C1157-compliant cement. It calls this ‘ambient temperature electrochemical calcination.’
Investment on the same scale of the DOE has also been happening in Europe. In July 2023, for example, the European Commission announced an investment of Euro3.6bn in clean tech projects to be funded from the proceeds of the European Union emissions trading scheme (ETS). This was the third call for large-scale projects following previous announcements of recipients in 2021 and 2022. Euro1.6bn of the third call funding went towards cement and refining projects including five cement and lime projects in Belgium, Croatia, Germany and Greece. The money granted for each of these schemes was in the region of Euro115 - 235m.
Both the US and Europe are throwing serious finance at the cement industry to try and kickstart the various pathways towards net zero. They are also doing it in different ways, with the US aiming to boost its economy by onshoring sustainable industry, and Europe hoping to fund its approach via carbon taxation. Government-driven decarbonisation investment for cement in other large countries and regions around the world appears to be lagging behind the US and Europe but these may spring up as net zero targets are set, roadmaps drawn up and government policy formulated. These places could also benefit from watching what works and does not work elsewhere first. Back in the US and Europe the next tricky part of this process will be bridging the gap between government subsidy and commercial viability.