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When to call it a day…?
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
26 October 2016
One fascinating statistic stands out in a study on how the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) pays its bills: cement represented 4% of its revenue in 2015 or around US$100m. The Centre for the Analysis of Terrorism (CAT) came up with this figure as part of its analysis on how the group finances itself. Its data was based on available information such as local sources, internal ISIS documents and reports from governments and institutions.
What’s more, the previous year in 2014, CAT estimated that ISIS brought in US$300m from cement sales. The difference in revenue between 2015 and 2014 came about from the group losing control of territory. In late 2014 it controlled four cement plants: the Lafarge Al-Jalabiya plant in Ayn al-Arabin, the Al-Raqqah Guris Cement plant and Fallujah, Kubaisa and Al-Qa’im plants in Iraq. Altogether it had a cement production capacity of 7.5Mt/yr, a higher capacity than 62% of the cement producing nations that are recognised formally by the United Nations. Briefly it had production parity with countries like Angola, Uzbekistan and Kuwait.
However the loss of the Al-Jalabiya and Kubaisa plants has stifled this revenue stream. At its peak ISIS couldn’t have been selling cement for more than something like US$40/t (capacity / revenue) if the plants were operating at full capacity. Yet it’s much more likely that the plants were chronically under-utilised and prices significantly higher in the heat, dust and confusion of a militant group attempting to form a state in a warzone.
Global Cement Weekly has covered previously the furore that erupted when French media accused Lafarge of cutting deals with ISIS to keep its Jalabiya cement plant during the early stages of the Syrian Civil War. At the time of the revelations in June 2016 LafargeHolcim said that its first priority was the safety and security of its employees at the plant before it eventually closed it, although it did not deny accusations directly.
Since then the plant’s former security manager Jacob Waerness has popped up in an interview with Bloomberg in connection with a book he wrote about the affair. According to Waerness, Lafarge stayed in the country for too long before the plant was finally seized by ISIS in September 2014.
The problem for Lafarge, as other multinational companies left the warzone, was that the US$680m plant had only been operational since late 2010 before hostilities broke out in 2011. Essentially, it tried to wait out the conflict and then got left behind. Pertinent to the start of this column, Waerness says that as the more extreme groups took control of the surrounding area he was offered and declined a meeting with the IS finance chief in Raqqa in the summer of 2013. However else one might describe IS, it was and clearly is well aware of the revenue to be gained from functioning cement plants.
LafargeHolcim has since started an internal review into the reported allegations under the auspices of its Finance & Audit Committee. In September 2016 the Iranian-backed Fars News Agency was reporting that US special forces were using the Jalabiya plant as a base. If and when peace comes to the region it will be intriguing to find out what condition the plant is in. Until then, LafargeHolcim will have to wait and take the loss on its investment.
Lining tomorrow’s kilns
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
18 October 2016
As mentioned last week, there were a number of big news stories, one of which was the planned merger between RHI and Magnesita. On 10 October 2016 both companies announced that they were combing to form a ‘leading’ refractory company with complementary assets and a completion date penned in for 2017. As Informed’s Mike O’Driscoll presents a good overview of the two companies and the general implications of the merger we will focus on the cement industry aspects of the merger here. It is worth noting here that the new company will be established in the Netherlands but its shares will be listed in London. O’Driscoll reckons that had the UK voted to stay in the European Union the new company would have been based in London.
Comparing like-with-like for RHI and Magnesita is difficult because Magnesita doesn’t publish figures on its refractory sales to the cement industry. However, RHI produced 443,000t of refractory materials in 2015 for its Industrial Division, including the cement and lime industries, and Magnesita produced 151,000t for its Industrial Division at the same time. As can be seen in Graph 1 RHI produces nearly three times as much refractory as Magnesita in this area. Sales volumes for RHI have fallen over the last five years and Magnesita’s sales hit a high in 2013. Total revenue for RHI, across all business lines, was US$1.95bn or about double that of Magnesita.
Graph 1: Refractory sales volumes to industrial divisions for RHI and Magnesita, 2011 – 2016. Sources: RHI and Magnesita financial reports. Note: Figures for Magnesita are calculated from percentages.
RHI reported that 12.6% of its revenue in 2015 came from the cement and lime industries. It pointed out that this sector of its business benefited from the growing construction industry in North America. Elsewhere, it had a tough time in most of its territories, with the exception of Indonesia where its revenue grew due to a major contract won in the lime segment. Over the last five years RHI’s revenue from its cement and lime customers dipped to a low in 2013 before recovering year-on-year since then.
However, the situation has deteriorated during the first half of 2016 with revenues from the cement and lime industries falling by 13% year-on-year. China was blamed as the biggest single factor, with business down by roughly a quarter as a result of the downturn in the construction industry, falling property prices and lower investment activities. One interesting point that RHI made at this time was that, “the globally weak economic situation and regional excess capacities are causing a decrease in repair volume.” Another was the importance the refractory producer placed on Africa and on Nigeria and Algeria in particular. This seems to belie the petrodollar woes Nigeria has experienced recently and the scaling back by Dangote Cement of its international expansion plans.
Magnesita reported that sales volumes for its industrial segments sector, including cement, dropped by 11.7% year-on-year to 133,000t in 2016. It blamed the shortfall on the declining cement industry in Brazil with problems in Venezuela also contributing. In contrast to RHI though it reported growing sales in the Middle East and Africa, notably in Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Sales revenue actually rose by 10.2% to US$145m due to favourable exchange rates on sales outside of Brazil.
In the first half of 2016 the negative trend in Brazil continued for Magnesita with sales volumes falling by 22% in its so-called ‘established’ markets. This was compensated for by Bolivia, Mexico, Argentina and the Middle East, Africa and the Commonwealth of Independent States territories. Sales volumes for its industrial segments sector rose slightly by 1.1% to 75,200t in the first half of 2016. Again, sales revenue grew on the back of exchange rates.
As with mergers between large producers in the cement industry, if global growth is stagnating, then mergers offer an alternative way for refractory companies to compensate. However, LafargeHolcim’s promise of savings and synergies has withered to periodic news bulletins of what assets the group is planning to sell next. One question to pose is whether the merger of RHI and Magnesita will herald a similar drip-drip of assets disposals in coming years or whether it will usher in a new era for the refractory industry. A large part of this will depend on the health of the steel industry, as well as minority markets such as cement.
Croatian competition
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
12 October 2016
The European Commission’s decision to investigate Duna-Dráva Cement’s (DDC) purchase of Cemex Croatia sticks out in a busy news week. There have been a few noteworthy news stories this week from the Indonesian government making preparations to fight overcapacity, LafargeHolcim retreating from Chile, Cemex restructuring its management in Colombia after investigations into a land deal and the announcement of merger plans between two of the larger refractory manufacturers. Yet the commission’s probe is a response to what may be in effect a ‘land grab’ by DDC. How on earth did HeidelbergCement and Schwenk, the joint-owners of DDC, think they were going to pass this one past the relevant competition bodies?!
As the commissions describes it, the “proposed transaction would combine Cemex Croatia, the largest producer in the area, and DDC, the largest importer.” So far, so bad. Then add the observation that Cemex Croatia and LafargeHolcim control all the cement terminals in ports along the Croatian coast. Cemex has three cement plants in the south of the country with no nearby competition. Giving the owners of DDC those assets ties up the market southern Croatia nicely. Understandably, the European Commission has concerns.
Croatia has five cement plants. LafargeHolcim runs a 0.45Mt/yr plant at Koromačno and Nasicecement run a 0.6Mt/yr plant at Nasice. Cemex’s three plants are all in the south near Split within about 10km of each other. When Global Cement visited in late 2014 Cemex Croatia told us that the plants were so close together that the company considered them as one plant. The sites also share one quarry for their raw materials. Only one of three plants, Sv Juraj the largest, has a bagging unit and Sv 10 Kolovoz was mothballed due to poor market demand. Together the plants have a cement production capacity of 1.92Mt/yr. This gives Cemex 65% of the market by production capacity.
Describing the three plants as one certainly makes sense for a company that might have been considering selling them. However, it is a fair comment given the close proximity of the plants to each other and the joint-capacity below that of some of the larger single site multi-kiln plants around the world. In this sense, the real questions for the European Commission will be how much of a dent to competition will it make to hand over the area’s main importer to the area’s main producer?
Graph 1: Cement consumption in Croatia, 2011 - 2015 (Mt). Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics.
Looking at the national cement market since 2011 in Graph 1 using data from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics, sales volumes fell to a low in 2013 and have picked up since then, although not to the same levels. Prior to this cement sales halved from 2008 to 2013. Under these kinds of conditions Nexe Grupa, the owner of Nasicecement, filed with pre-bankruptcy settlements in 2013. HeidelbergCement expressed interest in the cement assets around this time, although nothing eventually happened. Imports of cement grew by 11% year-on-year to 312,000t in 2015 from 280,000t in 2014. This compares to a 1% increase to 2.36Mt in domestic cement sales in 2015.
As the commission suggests, combining the region’s biggest producer and its biggest importer seems like a recipe for reduced competition and inflated prices. This could be mitigated, in theory, if DDC decided to flood the region with imports from HeidelbergCement’s new assets from Italcementi once it completes its purchase of that company. Although a dominant player in a region undercutting its own prices seems far fetched. Theoreticals aside, it seems very unlikely that the European Commission will let the purchase go ahead without taking some sort of action.
Competition in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
05 October 2016
News from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) this week: Lucky Cement has nearly finished its new 1.2Mt/yr cement plant. The US$270m project is due to start commercial operation in October 2016, according to a report by Bloomberg. The news is fascinating because it marks the opening up of central sub-Saharan Africa to the cement industry and it puts the boots of Pakistan’s Lucky Cement on the African continent in a big way.
The Nyumba Ya Akiba plant is a 50:50 joint venture between Lucky Cement and a local conglomerate Groupe Rawji, with financing supplied from a group of international development agencies. Originally proposed in 2013 the plant is located in Kongo Central province in the far west of the country between Kinshasa and the port of Matadi near to the connecting main road and railway line. The kit for the plant was ordered from FLSmidth in 2014 for Euro68m, including crushers, pyro processing equipment and vertical mills for raw meal, coal and cement grinding. An overview from the International Finance Corporation also added that the plant intended to cut a deal to import South African coal via the railway from the coast. Limestone and clay will come from a captive quarry. Incidentally, FLSmidth reckoned in 2015 that the project was the first new cement plant in the country in 40 years.
From Lucky Cement’s perspective the project makes sense given the bad reaction it has had trying to import its cement into western and southern Africa. Local producers recoiled from cheap imports along the coast and then lobbied their governments to block them. So, putting down manufacturing roots in a target country with a local partner makes it that much harder to block additional imports. It may or may not be importing its own clinker from somewhere else to supplement local demand but it is definitely providing local jobs and supporting local development. Lucky Cement’s previous international adventure of this kind was the opening of a cement grinding plant in Iraq in 2014.
Naturally, like buses, one waits ages for a cement plant to be built and then two turn up at the same time. South Africa’s PPC is also building an integrated cement plant in the DRC at Kimpese, in the same province as Lucky Cement’s plant. PPC’s half year report to March 2016, released in September 2016, mentioned that its 1Mt/yr plant was 83% complete with all civic and structural work complete. Commissioning was intended for the end of 2016 with cement ready for sale in early 2017. It is being built by Sinoma. The cement producer already has a sales depot in Kinshasa and it exports 32.5N and 42.5N cement from South Africa to the territory. Given PPC’s falling revenues from cement in South Africa and growing revenue elsewhere in Africa the opening of this plant will be keenly awaited.
The local demographics may answer whether the DRC can support two new cement plants. The country’s cement consumption was just 24kg/capita with a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of US$490 in 2015. These are some of the smallest figures in the world. A feasibility study ahead of the Nyumba Ya Akiba plant estimated that the country would have a demand of 1.8Mt/yr by 2015 compared to a local production capacity of under 1Mt/yr. Nature, and markets, abhor a vacuum. Lucky Cement and PPC are about to fill it.
Ecocem step forward
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
28 September 2016
Once again Ecocem has shone the torch this week for a rare thing within Europe these days: a growing cement company. Its latest project is an import terminal in Sweden, as part of a deal with Bolidan, which launched on 22 September 2016. This supports an arrangement to supply cement for the Boliden Garpenberg mine. The agreement also includes supply for the Boliden Tara Mines in Ireland.
This follows the announcement to build a new slag grinding plant in Dunkirk, France in early September 2016 and the opening of a new terminal in Runcorn, UK earlier in the year. The 1.4Mt/yr Dunkirk plant is a joint-venture with the steelmaker ArcelorMittal, intended to target markets in north of France and in the UK. Once complete it will join Ecocem’s growing collection of grinding units in Ireland, France and the Netherlands. The slag-cement producer operates a 0.35Mt/yr plant at Dublin, a 0.7Mt/yr plant at Fos in the south of France and a 0.35Mt/yr plant at Moerdijk under its subsidiary Orcem Netherlands.
The focus on the UK makes sense given that Ecocem said that it had made commitments to sell more product in the UK in its first year than its total domestic sales in 2016. This followed the situation where, prior to entering the British market, Ecocem had to stop taking orders in the short term due to demand. If this is actually the case then it is unsurprising to note that Ecocem is also building a second UK terminal at Sheerness at the mouth of the River Thames near to London. As an aside, Francis Flower bought the Scunthorpe ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBS) plant from Hanson Cement in mid-2015 after the local market regulator requested the sale.
As Charlie Zeynel, ZAG International, says in an interview to be published in the October 2016 issues of Global Cement Magazine, that supplementary cementitous materials, including slags, in cement blends has grown worldwide, particularly in Europe and Japan, where GGBS cement represents around 25% and 30% of cement sales respectively. Zeynel goes on to say that GGBS usage is set to rise in other parts of the world, particularly the US, but this helps to explain the market Ecocem is operating in within northern Europe.
Ecocem seems well aware of the potential for slag cements in the US because it is attempting to build a Euro45m grinding plant Vallejo, California under its Orcem Americas subsidiary. The process has so far been dogged by planning problems at the proposed site as well as organised local opposition, which does not want a new industrial plant in the neighbourhood and issues such as the increased traffic it would bring. The irony here is that Ecocem bills itself as an environmentally friendly cement producer. Yet even environmentally-friendly cement needs to be manufactured and taken to site.
To misquote Kermit the Frog: it’s not easy selling green cement. However, Ecocem’s progress in Europe is encouraging both in the UK and the wider area. Roll on the opening of the Sheerness terminal.
Find out more about Ecocem's operations here: www.ecocem.fr/en/