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Holcim’s Journey Continues
Written by Global Cement staff
02 January 2013
Just before the end of 2012 Holcim sold shares in companies it owned in Thailand and Guatemala. It reduced its stake in Siam City Cement Company (SCCC) in Thailand from 36.8% to 27.5% and it sold its entire 20% minority stake in Cementos Progreso in Guatemala. For the sale of these two share packages Holcim received approximately Euro310m.
This is interesting given that Asia-Pacific was the Switzerland-based multinational's biggest sales area in 2011 and because sales of cement rose by 6% in Latin America in 2011. Similarly in 2012 from January to September the two regions propped up the group's profits. Why would Holcim sell stakes into two of its most profitable regions?
In its third quarter report in 2012 Holcim repeatedly described Thailand as 'encouraging' following floods in 2011. It added that it had focused increasingly on the cement market in the country and strengthened its position in neighbouring countries that resulted in lower clinker exports.
According to the Global Cement Directory 2013 SCCC has a capacity of 31Mt/yr, 65% of Thailand's total capacity of 48Mt/yr. SCCC predicted in December 2012 that domestic cement demand would increase by 5-10% in 2013. The company is currently planning to build new plants in Indonesia and Cambodia and is considering investing in Myanmar. In Indoniesia Holcim is the third biggest producer after Semen Gresik and HeidelbergCement subsidiary Indocement.
Meanwhile in Central America, Cementos Progreso was the sole producer in Guatemala with 2.5Mt/yr from two plants. This was set to double with the commissioning of a third plant towards the end of 2012. However, Holcim retains seven plants in southern Mexico (12Mt/yr), both of El Salvador's plants (2Mt/yr) and a plant in Costa Rica (1Mt/yr).
With Holcim's strong presence in Central America and the North American market reviving leaving Guatemala makes sense with the group's debt reduction programme in mind. The situation in Thailand is more complex, so unsurprisingly Holcim has reduced its stake rather than leaving completely. SCCC's expansion plans outside of Thailand suggest, that although growing, the market is maturing. In one such potential expansion target, Indonesia, Holcim is already a major producer.
In its press release announcing the sales in Thailand and Guatemala, Holcim attributed the decision to its ongoing debt reduction programme. As part of its 'Leadership Journey' the group intends to save Euro1.25bn by the end of 2014. Other savings in 2012 included reducing management in Europe, layoffs and closures in Australia, a plant closure in Hungary, further delays on the decision to build a new plant in New Zealand and layoffs in Spain. The management changes in Europe alone contributed a Euro99m chunk of Holcim's target saving of Euro124m for 2012.
Yet it's worth considering that a week after the sales of its shares Holcim's subsidiary in India, Ambuja Cements, announced investments of Euro277m in India. Perhaps the best way to save money is to make more money.
2012 in cement
Written by Global Cement staff
19 December 2012
For the last Global Cement Weekly of 2012 we look at the big stories in the cement industry from over the last year. As usual we'll be posting this in our LinkedIn group. Given the scope we're bound to have missed some themes – for example we haven't mentioned the continued growth in Indonesia - so let us know your additions, comments and responses.
Bad news from Europe
With stories this week of layoffs at Italcementi and Oficemen confirming that Spanish cement consumption has fallen by a third in 2012, our first theme of the year has been the continued decline of the western European cement industry. Given that no western European countries even made the top 10 list of cement producing countries in 2011, readers might be forgiven for asking why this is news. The reason is because many of the multinational cement producers are still based in Europe. Although fears of financial meltdown following a Greek exit from the European Monetary Union have receded, Titan's crashing profits still present a stark warning.
Multinational debt reduction
This leads us to the next point: several of the global cement majors have been pursuing aggressive debt reduction schemes over the last year. Holcim's 'Leadership Journey' saw it announce cost-cutting measures designed to save Euro99m this week. This is part of an overall series of personnel changes to save at least Euro1.25bn by 2014. Lafarge has sold plants in the United States and the UK whilst cutting its debts. How much longer will these schemes go on for?
Recovery in the Americas
Across the Atlantic in the Americas the cement industry has been quietly growing in confidence in 2013. In the United States a forecast from the Portland Cement Association (PCA) expects a 7.5% rise in cement consumption in 2012. Brazil's Camargo Corrêa acquired the controlling stake in Portugal's Cimpor over the summer, with Votorantim picking up Cimpor's overseas assets as part of the deal. As a whole demand for cement in Brazil rose by 8.5% in the first eight months of 2012.
Yet hurdles still remain for the US industry. The US Fiscal Cliff now seems unlikely to wreck the recovering US economy but EPA regulations may still stall the US cement industry. The weakened maximum achievable control technology (MACT) standards for air toxics emissions were received at the White House Office of Management and Budget earlier in December 2012 for pre-publication review. If there are any surprises here US producers need only look at Australia for what might happen next, where carbon legislation may be crippling the industry.
Managing the African boom
After all the gloom above at least Africa's growth remains spectacular, particularly as east Africa continues to develop. Here the challenges have been more about fighting off the competition. On the east coast of the continent this has meant coping with cheap exports from Pakistan and Vietnam flooding the market, Currently poor infrastructure links are preventing the exports reaching much beyond the immediate coast. With Nigeria declaring itself 'self-sufficient' in cement in October 2012 and Dangote planning to shut a plant, infrastructure building and intra-continental exports seem set to rise massively. Fortunes will be made and lost in the business melee.
Mixed demand in the Middle East
Saudi Arabia's decision to lift its import ban in March 2012 indicate that the Middle East's biggest player demands significant amounts of cement. Yet across the border the United Arab Emirates is massively overproducing which in turn is wrecking the industry in Oman. Egypt remains riddled by industrial disputes that have reduced production by 50%. Iran continues to promote its growing production capacity but the international economic sanctions enforced upon the country can only lead to overcapacity.
Where next for India and China?
This leaves the world's biggest cement producing nations: India and China. India's promise remains immense yet so too does speculation regarding its growth. Indian capacity utilisation looks set to stick at 76% in 2012. UltraTech nearly doubled its profit in the second quarter of the 2012 fiscal year and many projects have been announced in recent months, yet India's power grid collapse over the summer is just one of many endemic problems facing the industry.
China remains the world's biggest producer of cement by a gargantuan margin but halfway through the year profits from Chinese cement producers took a nasty knock. Since then it's got worse. Chinese officials have spent the year stating publicly that their country is producing too much cement.
Whilst it's hard to tell what will happen next, China's state-owned approach to capitalism could allow positive change to the industry on a massive scale, from even more infrastructure spending to further tightening of environmental regulations. Or it could just carry on as before as the risk of a 'hard' economic landing looms. One consequence might be Vietnam-style overcapacity creating mass exports forced through by China's global political power. Nowhere would be safe!
Global Cement Weekly will return in 2013
Cement from a land down under?
Written by Global Cement staff
12 December 2012
As 2012 draws to a close the challenges posed by the Australian carbon tax to the Australian cement industry are starting to show. First, Holcim Australia announced it was to lay off 150 staff. Then Boral released the news that it was planning to cut 90 jobs at its Waurn Ponds cement plant.
Following years of debate the Gillard government introduced the Clean Energy Act in July 2012. Heavy polluters were initially charged US$23/t of CO2 emitted, more than twice the cost of similar schemes in Europe where it is US$10/t. A key criticism of the scheme was that it would damage the Australian domestic cement industry with cheap imports. However the Australian government cushioned the move with compensation packages for major polluters, including cement producers, currently set to last five years.
Although the Australian cement industry hasn't totally collapsed, with the loss of 1800 jobs as the Australian Federal Opposition warned of in 2011, imports have been favoured in recent months. Boral's suspension of clinker production at Waurn Ponds will increase imports. The change will result in 25-30% of Boral's clinker being imported. It's worth noting that Boral pointed out in its press release that this was 'in-line' with the Australian industry.
Adelaide Brighton, the country's third biggest producer after Holcim and Boral, may not have laid anybody off but it has secured a 10-year supply of foreign clinker. On 5 December 2012 the building materials producer announced that it was going to a buy a 30% stake in Malaysian white clinker and white cement producer, Aalborg Portland Malaysia. In the accompanying press statement the company's chief financial officer explicitly blamed the carbon tax as one of the reasons for the acquisition.
Whether the job losses at Boral and Holcim can be totally blamed on the carbon tax remains to be seen. Boral's second-half profit for the year ending 30 June 2012 suffered a fall of 59% to US$35.7m. Holcim noted weaker demand outside of mining regions for the third quarter of 2012. By contrast, Adelaide Brighton reported steady gains in its half-year report for 2012 although cement sales only increased 'marginally'. Elsewhere in its report Adelaide Brighton stated that it would cope with the impact of the carbon tax by reducing reliance on domestic manufacturing. These can hardly be comforting words for the Australian cement industry.
Vertical rumour mill: Jaypee Group takeover tales
Written by Global Cement staff
05 December 2012
Step forward UltraTech Cement into the vertical rumour mill! The Indian cement producer is the latest company reported as wanting to buy Jaypee Group's cement business in Gujarat. It follows Italcementi, Aditya Birla and CRH, who announced in October 2012 that negotiations had been 'terminated' as the parties had been unable to agree terms.
This time the asking price has risen, with Ultratech allegedly offering US$160-165/t and Jaypee holding out for US$180-185/t. Whilst UltraTech hasn't publicly confirmed the move, it pointedly hasn't denied it either. The Aditya Birla Group subsidiary only commented to the Bombay Stock Exchange that it had not issued any press releases on the subject. Aditya Birla Group itself was reported in October 2012 as pursing interest at US$130/t for Jaypee's 9.8Mt/yr operations in Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh.
Given the number of rumours and cash-rich CRH's very public failure to strike a deal it seems likely that Jaypee has a specific price in mind and it's sticking to it. Prasad Baji of Edelweiss Securities stated in a television interview with CNBC-TV18 that he thought that the cement industry cycle was starting to look up. Crucially he predicted that India's capacity utilisation was set to rise from its current level of 78% to 82% despite price declines in the current quarter.
This is in sharp contrast with Fitch Ratings which rated the Indian cement industry with a negative outlook at the start of 2012 and reports in late May 2012 that capacity ultilisation had actually fallen from 76% to 71%. Since then ICRA Research reported in late September 2012 that it expected Indian capacity ultilisation to stick to 76% for 2012 with prices showing 'resistance' in some regions to cost increases due to rising input costs.
With all this in mind it seems likely that UltraTech will join the growing list of Jaypee's spurned buyers when it fails to reach terms or when the rumours simply fizzle out. However if UltraTech does strike a deal the Indian industry will be the one to watch in 2013. According to data in the Global Cement Directory 2013, an acquisition of nearly 10Mt/yr production capacity would boost UltraTech's capacity to 62Mt/yr making it the 12th largest cement company in the world.
Where to build an African cement plant
Written by Global Cement staff
28 November 2012
The outgoing chief executive of PPC (Portland Pretoria Cement) officer, Paul Stuiver, summed up the dilemma facing cement producers on the east coast of Africa. Building near the coast leaves you vulnerable to imports.
In a recent interview with the South African business weekly, 'Financial Mail', Stuiver said that imports are not a threat to African expansion, provided that a facility is not built within 200km of a port. Exactly the same issue was raised by Yves De Moor in his column in the November 2012 issue of Global Cement Magazine.
Countries along Africa's east coast receive imports, but Stuiver said that Africa's high logistics costs mean the prices increase steeply as the cement is transported inland. He commented that the markets in Mozambique and KwaZulu Natal in South Africa were especially vulnerable and that most imports to South Africa come through Durban. Unsurprisingly both of PPC's big recent investments have been in landlocked countries, Zimbabwe and Ethiopia respectively. In July 2012 it also tried to invest in CINAT, the Democratic Republic of Congo's state-owned cement producer.
The import issue to South Africa reignited last week when the South African National Regulator for Compulsory Specifications (NRCS) confirmed that it had confiscated 'sub-standard' cement imported from Vietnam. As we covered in August 2012 in this column this follows a row in July 2012 about whether cement from Pakistan's Lucky Cement was complying with South African standards.
Although standards still lead the argument, more honesty has emerged with the use of the word 'dumping' in the complaints. Stuiver explained that "...the price of cement from Pakistan, India and Vietnam is low because electricity, fuel and transport rates are subsidised." Whilst PPC can report that its revenue has risen by 9% to US$837m for the first nine months of 2012, complaints against foreign imports seem overly protective. In 2009 PPC confirmed the existence of a cartel in the country. PPC has even gone to the Advertising Standards Authority to stop imports with elephants on their bags!
With reports that Nigerian producer Dangote is building a new US$389m plant in South Africa, thoughts turn to what will happen once South Africa becomes 'self-sufficient' in cement, like Nigeria which has proudly announced this recently. Giant infrastructure projects are one way to use all that excess cement and this is what Lafarge WAPCO has been asking the Nigerian government to do recently, in a road building drive. Better transport links in South Africa would wreck Stuiver's maxim about not building near a port.
Two solutions from this week's news might appeal to the industry on the south and east coasts of Africa. The first is to use inventive export barriers just like the Bureau of Indian Standards have imposed to slow down exports from Pakistan. The second is to persuade importers to do what a North Korean ship reportedly did with its consignment of cement this week off the coast of Somalia: dump it in the sea.