- Written by Dr Robert McCaffrey, Editor, Global Cement Magazine
I'm often compared to a harbinger of doom, but I believe that's it better to be prepared by thinking through the possible eventualities of a situation. It has struck me over the last few years that the number of possible outcomes from any current situation is so vast that it is nearly impossible to forecast the future (even in a game of chess, the number of possible games is around 10120, the 'Shannon Number'). In the dark days before Lehman's collapse, nobody had a clue as to what might happen afterwards (it turns out that the world didn't end, after all, but it was one of the possibilities). Anyway, despite the wide variety of future outcomes, it's possibly worthwhile to contemplate the effects of the current instability (and weakness) of the Euro on the cement industry.
Just to be clear, I am not advocating a 'Grexit' - a Greek exit from the EuroZone - it is just that the markets now suggest that there is only a small chance that Greece will not leave the Euro. A run on Greece's banks and the declination of the ECB to guarantee them would lead to default, as might the rejection of further austerity by the electorate... or a number of other possible scenarios as well. Euro ejection would quickly follow any default.
- Written by Dr Robert McCaffrey, Editor, Global Cement Magazine
I've had the pleasure of sitting through more than 4000 presentations at our own and others' conferences over the years (think of it like this: 10 conferences per year, 20 presentations at each conference, 20 years of going to industry conferences). In that time, I have seen some really terrific presentations, where the audience was literally on the edge of its seat, and where listeners waited for every utterance as if their lives depended upon it. I have also heard a few presentations that were not so good. I thought I would take the opportunity to give a few hints to potential speakers...
- Written by Dr Robert McCaffrey, Editor, Global Cement Magazine
The fact is, you have to take the rough with the smooth. When it comes to reviews, accept a pat on the back when it is offered to you, but you also have to receive the brickbat ('A remark or comment that is highly critical and typically insulting') if it comes your way as well. As I've discovered over the years of organising running races (see www.Trionium.com), you can't please all of the people all of the time, and some people are not happy unless they have something to complain about: you have to take some criticism with a pinch of salt. The same applies to some of the compliments too: as Rudyard Kipling wrote in his celebrated poem 'If,' 'If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster and treat those two impostors just the same... yours is the earth and everything that's in it.'
In the popular 'opera' Carmina Burana, there is a recurring motif of the wheel of fortune, often depicted in the Middle Ages with four people secured to it as if to a primitive Ferris wheel: One at the height of fame and fortune at the top, and one in the depths of despair at the bottom (and two others, in the process of ascent or descent as well). In the same way, appearing on the front cover of Sports Illustrated magazine is supposed to curse that particular sportsman to a swift decline (although it is more often the case that they are pictured at the zenith of their powers and prowess - and the only way is down).
- Written by Dr Robert McCaffrey, Editor, Global Cement Magazine
Those helpful people at Bank of America Merrill Lynch have sent me a research note from their Global Research report services. The note examines the likely future trend in oil pricing, a trend which has consequences for the cement industry. This is what they say:
"What is in store for global oil demand in the medium term? We [BoAML] project global oil demand to grow at a cumulative 6.15 million b/d over the next five years. Global oil demand in 2016 will likely stand at 95 million b/d, relative to 85 million b/d in 2005. The developing world, which already accounts for half of the world's output, will in 2013 overtake the developed world in terms of oil consumption. By 2016 we estimate that emerging markets will comprise 53% of global oil consumption, with China alone making up 12.8% or 12 million b/d of global consumption."
- Written by Dr Robert McCaffrey, Editor, Global Cement Magazine
Global Cement will soon open its public poll for the Top 5 Global Cement influencers in 2012, where cement industry participants will be able to vote for individuals for the awards. In the meantime, to get the ball rolling, we divulge our own suggested list of the Top 5 Global Cement influencers in 2012:
1: Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank.
Mario Draghi has the difficult job of trying to steer the ECB through the Euro crisis, Europe-wide recession, the Greek default scenario and having to deal with intransigent and politicised national leaders. Will he start to print Euros to prop up the Eurozone? Will the ECB become the lender of last resort? Will the Euro survive? The answers to these questions determine not only the economic fate of Europe and many other countries around the world, but also their cement demand. He has power, but the markets also have a say in how this story pans out...
