Displaying items by tag: Results

Egypt: Arabian Cement has reported an 88% decline in profit year-on-year to Euro 1.60m in 2019 from Euro13.3m in 2018. Sales were Euro181m, down by 5.5% from Euro 192m in 2018 due to depleted demand. Expansión newspaper called 2019 ‘the worst year in history for Egypt’s cement industry.’

As India reaches two weeks into its 21 day lockdown to combat coronavirus, the financial analysts are starting to publish their forecasts as to what the effects will be for the cement industry. The results are gloomy, with demand predicted to drop by up to 25% in the financial year to March 2021 by one analyst and 40% in March 2020 alone by another.

Graph 1: Indian cement production, rolling annual by month, January 2018 – February 2020. Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

The graph above sets the scene for what may be to come by showing the state of production in India in recent years. From early 2018 it picked up by 17% to 337Mt by March 2019 and stayed around there through the rest of year before breeching 340Mt in January and February 2020. The (relative) lull in production growth in 2019 was blamed by some analysts on the general election in mid-2019 and then the monsoon rains. In summary the market was improving and seemed set for further growth in 2020. Alas, this does not now seem to be the case.

Looking ahead, Rating’s agency CRISIL has published a research paper on the topic and here are some of the highlights. They break the damage down into two separate scenarios. The first, where the social distancing measures last until the end of April, cause a 10 – 15% fall in cement demand with the pain limited to the first quarter of the Indian financial year, which starts on 1 April. The second, where distancing measures last until June, cause a 20 – 25% decrease in demand, with the problems extended into the second quarter. Salient points that it makes about the anticipated recovery include a delay in infrastructure spending due to the government diverting funds to healthcare, reduced private and real estate markets and a divide between state-led affordable housing schemes in urban and rural areas. It pins its hopes on rural housing to grab demand first, followed by key infrastructure projects, especially transport schemes.

Examining the cement producers directly, CRISIL reckons that prices will fall in the face of dropping demand but that power, fuel and freight costs are all expected to fall also. Profit margins are forecast to drop compared to the 2019 – 2020 financial year but still remain higher than the two previous ones. Finally, it looked at the credit profiles of 23 companies, representing over 70% of installed production capacity. Together they had a total debt of US$7bn. It flagged up four of these companies as having high debt/earnings ratios and five with low interest coverage. The latter were described as ‘small regional firms with weak cash balances.’

That’s one view on what may happen but two recent general industry news stories offer snapshots on what may be to come for the Indian market. The first is an immediate consequence of a nationwide lockdown in a country with a population of 1.3bn and a low cost of labour. 400 construction workers at a grinding plant build for Ramco Cements in Haridaspur, Odisha, were stranded at the site when the quarantine restrictions stopped them travelling home to Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. They took up residence at the building site and then protested when the food ran out. This point about migrant labour is noteworthy because how the Indian government relaxes the lockdown could have massive consequences upon how the construction industry recovers. A possible parallel from elsewhere in the world is the slowdown effect the Saudi Arabian cement industry suffered in late 2013 when the government took action against illegal foreign workers in the construction industry.

The second news story to keep in mind is the annual results from refractory manufacturer RHI Magnesita this week. It reported growing revenue from its cement and lime customers in 2019 but it blamed a weaker market in Europe on producers stockpiling product due to tightening magnesite and dolomite raw material availability. The takeaway here is that if supply chains supporting the cement sector and the rest of the construction industry in India at the moment are affected by the coronavirus outbreak, and government action to stop it, then there may be consequences later on. So far Global Cement hasn’t seen anything like this but the preparation for coronavirus advice from industry expert John Kilne has been to indentify and secure medium term needs, including refractory and critical spare parts and to consider potential disruption to supply chains.

In terms of what happens next once the lockdown ends in India (and other countries), one media commentator has described the response to coronavrius as the ‘hammer and the dance.’ The hammer is the economy-busting measures many governments have implemented to stop local epidemics. The dance is/are the measures that countries are using before and after an outbreak to keep it suppressed until a vaccine is developed. The worry for building material producers is how much the ‘dance’ disrupts business over the next year. All eyes will be on the East Asian producer market figures for the first quarter to see how this plays out.

China: Huaxin Cement has announced a predicted profit drop of 46% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, to US$100m from US$188m in the corresponding three months of 2019. Huaxin Cement said, “During the reporting period, the company's performance declined significantly, mainly due to the impact of the coronavirus epidemic, which caused sales to fall by 36%.”

Austria: RHI Magnesita’s revenue from its cement and lime sector rose by 6.4% year-on-year to Euro344m in 2019 from Euro324m in 2018. It attributed the growth to selective price increases, product portfolio choices and market share gains specifically in China, the Middle East and Africa and the Commonwealth of Independent States. It said that demand for its products in Europe had been ‘slightly’ weaker in 2019 due to customer inventory build-up in 2018 as a result of tightening magnesite and dolomite raw material availability. It forecast a stable market in 2020 however it said that coronavirus was likely to affect this.

Overall, the company reported a 6.5% fall in revenue to Euro2.9bn in 2019 due to decreased revenue in its steel division. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell at a similar rate. However, coronavirus aside, chief executive officer Stefan Borgas expected the company’s Production Optimisation Plan to continue strengthening the business.

China: China Tianrui Group’s net 2019 profit was US$256m, up by 50% year-on-year from US$171m. Sales rose by 20% to US$1.70bn from US$1.42bn. This was due to increased volumes and prices.

Philippines: Eagle Cement Corporation’s profit in 2019 was US$118m, up by 25% from US$94.1m in 2018. Sales for the year amounted to US$389m, up by 20% from US$324m in 2018. The Manila Times newspaper has reported that the company attributed the rises to ‘increased sales volumes growth,’ due in part to ‘robust demand for private consumption.’ Eagle president and CEO Paul Ang said, “We keep our positive stance that demand will eventually pick up once the enhanced community quarantine is lifted by the government and we remain committed to delivering high quality cement to both private and public sectors as soon as this happens.”

Eagle Cement Corporation will complete the installation of a fifth mill at its 7.1Mt/yr integrated Bulacan plant in 2020, bringing its cement capacity to 8.6Mt/yr.

Brazil: Votorantim Cimentos earned revenues of US$2.47bn in 2019, up by 3.0% year-on-year from US$2.39bn in 2018. Its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation rose by 1.1% to US$513m from US$507m in 2018. Throughout the year, the company says that it paid off approximately US$570m of debt and contracted with a syndicate of banks for a new committed credit facility (CCF) for its alternative fuel substitution and CCF reduction initiatives of US$55.1m, due in August 2024.

On 30 March 2020 Votorantim Cimentos donated US$5.5m to fighting the effects of the coronavirus in Brazil.

China: Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement’s net profit in 2019 was US$197m, representing a 20% year-on-year increase from US$164m. Reuters has reported that on 15 November 2019 Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement paid US$82.6m for a lease and limestone exploration rights for land in De’an County, Jiangxi Province, previously held by Fushan Cement. On 25 June 2019 the company received US$23.3m in government compensation for the relocation of its Wannian cement plant.

Egypt: Sinai Cement’s net loss in 2019 was US$28.1m, down by 44% year-on-year from US$50.2m in 2018. Arab Finance News reported that the company attributed the loss to accumulated effects of currency devaluation on imported fuel and to rises of electricity and oil prices.

China: Asia Cement (China) Holdings’ whole-year net profit for 2019 was US$444m, up by 30% year-on-year from US$341m in 2018. Revenues grew by 11%, to US$1.78bn from US$1.60bn in 2018.

The group said that it expects cement demand to shrink in early 2020, recovering in early/mid-2020 to remain ‘at peak season level’ into late 2020, according to Reuters.