Displaying items by tag: data

Saudi Arabia: Total cement sales in Saudi Arabia dropped by 2% year-on-year to 3.61Mt in March 2025 from 3.70Mt in March 2024, according to data from Yamama Cement. Domestic sales fell by almost 4% to 3.45Mt, while exports rose by 36% to 158,000t from 116,000t. Arabian Cement recorded the highest increase in domestic sales at 26%, followed by Al-Safwa Cement with 22%. Umm Al-Qura Cement posted the steepest drop at 36%, while Tabuk Cement’s fell by 34%. Al-Jouf Cement’s sales remained unchanged at 102,000t.

Three companies exported a total of 158,000 tons of cement in March 2025. Saudi Cement led with 139,000t. Clinker production fell by 6% to 5.1Mt, while clinker inventories grew 5% to 44.3Mt. Saudi Cement also led clinker exports with 153,000t, followed by Northern Region Cement with 58,000t.

Switzerland: Cement deliveries rose by 1% year-on-year to 0.79Mt in the first quarter of 2025, continuing the upward trend seen in the final quarter of 2024, according to Cemsuisse. It attributed the slight recovery to lower interest rates and rising construction applications in the residential sector, but stated that the coming months would indicate whether the current economic uncertainty will affect activity. In the quarter, 36% of deliveries were made by rail and 64% by road.

Brazil: The Brazilian cement industry recorded sales of 15.6Mt in the first quarter of 2025, up by 6% year-on-year, according to the National Cement Industry Union (SNIC). Sales in March 2025 reached 5.3Mt, up by 5% year-on-year. The result was attributed to the continued growth of the labour market and of the population, in addition to a declining unemployment rate. However, SNIC stated that ‘uncertainties’ stemming from the US are likely to be reflected in global inflation and production costs. It projects growth of 1-1.5% for 2025.

SNIC president Paulo Camillo Penna said “In 2024, the industry recovered the losses of 2022 and 2023, closing the year with 4% growth. Projections for the first half of 2025 remain positive, but economic instability marked by the increase in interest rates, personal debt, high inflation and tax issues should reduce the sector's gains in the second half of 2025.”

President Trump said he was going to do it… and he did. The US announced tariffs on most imports on 2 April 2025 that took effect from 5 April 2025. So, once again, we ask what the consequences of this might be upon the cement sector.

Table 1: Estimated burden of US tariffs on selected countries importing cement based on 2024 data. Source: Based on USGS data.

Global Cement Magazine Editorial Director Robert McCaffrey posted a similar table to the one above on LinkedIn on 4 April 2025. It applies the new import tariffs to the value of imported hydraulic cement and clinker to the US in 2024 as reported by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). As such it gives us a starting idea of how the new tariffs might change what happens in 2025. For an idea of the volumes of cement imported to the US in recent years refer to the graph in GCW695.

However, a couple of key caveats were pointed out by commentators to that LinkedIn post. Marty Ozinga noted that the values from the USGS are customs values. Crucially, he said that the tariffs will be charged upon the FOB value of cement at the point of origin and not on the transport costs. This is significant because the cost of moving the cement can sometimes be more than half the total values reported in the table for certain countries. Another commentator wanted to make it clear that tariffs on imports are imposed upon the supply chain and are paid somewhere along it, typically by end users, rather than the originating country. Elsewhere, the feeling was very much one of waiting to see what would happen next and how markets would reorder.

Taken at face value, the first takeaway from Table 1 is that the variable tariffs disrupt the competitiveness of the importers. Any importer from a country with the lowest rate, 10%, now has an advantage over those with higher ones. Türkiye seems to be the obvious winner here as it was both the largest importer of cement in 2024 and it has the lowest rate. Vietnam appears to be a loser with a massive 46% rate. Canada and Mexico may have problems with a 25% tariff but how their cement gets to the US market may make a big difference as Ozinga mentions above. And so it goes down the list. What may be significant is how the order of the importers further down the list changes. For example, Algeria has a 30% rate compared to Egypt’s 10%. Both nations exported a similar volume of cement to the US in 2024.

The first casualty of the last week has been market certainty. The US announced the tariffs and stock markets slumped around the world. They started to revive on 8 April 2025 as the US government made more reassuring noises about trade talks but this was dampened by renewed fears of a US - China trade war. The orthodox economic view is that the US tariffs are increasingly likely to cause a recession in the US in the short term regardless of whether they have a more positive effect on the longer one. This view can be detected in former PCA economist Ed Sullivan’s latest independent report on the US economy. He acknowledged the fairness argument the US government has made, but warned of stagflation.

On the US construction market, prices look set to rise in areas that previously relied on imports or are near to them. Cement companies in the US should be able to sell higher volumes as some level of domestic production outcompetes imports. The sector produced 86Mt in 2024 and has a capacity of 120Mt/yr giving it a utilisation rate of 72%. It imported 20 - 25Mt of cement in 2024. One sign of this happening might be renewed investment in local capacity through upgrades, new lines and even new plants. However, a recession would reduce overall consumption. On the equipment side, there is likely to be a similar readjustment between local and foreign suppliers. Certainly, if the tariffs stick around then more non-US companies may be tempted to set up local subsidiaries and /or manufacturing bases if conditions permit. For example, note JCB’s doubling in size this week of a plant it is building in Texas. One interesting situation might occur if a US cement company wants to build a new production line. All the likely suppliers, at present at least, appear to be based outside of the US.

Finally, despite everything, Holcim declared this week that it had completed a $3.4bn bond offering ahead of the impending spin-off of Amrize in the US noting “strong investor interest in the future company.” It wants to shore-up confidence ahead of the creation of the new company at some point in the first half of the year. Holcim’s CEO said previously that he didn’t expect any blowback from tariffs as the company was a local business in the US. What may be worth watching for is whether the current disruption to stock markets causes any delays to the creation of Amrize.

The current situation with the tariffs is prompting a rapid-revaluation of the US construction market and the wider economy. US-based building materials companies look set to benefit but there may be disruption along the way. Foreign companies supplying the sector may well experience sharp changes in circumstances depending on how tariffs reorder supply chains. Prices for end-users look set to rise. We live in interesting times.

For Ed Sullivan’s take on the US cement sector read his article in the May 2025 issue of Global Cement Magazine

Kenya: Cement sales fell by 8% year-on-year to 8.47Mt in 2024, the sharpest annual decline in over two decades, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS). The fall reflects budgetary cuts on public infrastructure projects and a broader slowdown in construction activity, which contracted by 3% in the third quarter of 2024, following a 2% drop in the second quarter.

KNBS said in its report “The contraction was reflected by trends in key industry indicators. For instance, cement consumption declined by 10% to 2.2Mt in the third quarter of 2024, from 2.4Mt in the same quarter of 2023.”

According to the Nation newspaper, the slowdown follows delays in the government’s payments to contractors and the stalling of infrastructure projects. The government indicated that most of the stalled projects will begin to receive funding in the next few days and weeks.

Vietnam: Cement production rose by 4% year-on-year to 36.9Mt in the first quarter of 2025, according to the General Statistics Office. In March 2025, output reached 14.4Mt, up by 1.5% year-on-year. In 2024, the country produced 184.2Mt, an increase of 3.5% year-on-year.

Argentina: Cement despatches in the first three months of 2025 reached 2.3Mt, up by 11% from the same period in 2024. In March 2025, despatches rose by 17% year-on-year and by 1% month-on-month from 0.63Mt and 0.73Mt respectively. The country exported 7791t of cement in March 2025, bringing the year-to-date total for exports to 24,971t. Argentina imported 61t in March 2025 and 618t so far in 2025.

Ukraine: Ukrainian cement and concrete producers are ready to expand capacity to meet reconstruction demand, according to a survey by Consumer and Business Research Ukraine (CBR), despite reduced funding and limited state budget. Cement production dropped to 5.4Mt in 2022 from 11Mt in 2021 but stabilised at 7.4Mt in 2023 and 7.97Mt in 2024. CBR estimates that 8Mt/yr is feasible during wartime, rising to 12Mt/yr in the third or fourth year of reconstruction.

The Ukrainian Cement Association (UkrCement) head Pavlo Kachur said “Reconstruction will begin with demining, reinforcing the front lines and restoring energy infrastructure. Large-scale construction will likely not begin until the third or fourth year.”

At present, plant capacity utilisation varies across regions. Plants in western Ukraine are operating at higher capacity, while those in the south and east remain underutilised. In 2022, plants operated at a loss but retained staff. In 2023, volumes were sufficient to break even. Two-thirds of surveyed consumers increased production in 2023, though 2024 expectations were cautious.

Kachur said “Time will be needed for training, planning and securing financing—and cement producers will use that time to fill the market, primarily by investing in modernisation and capacity expansion. For example, two major projects to build new kilns are already ready in Kryvy Rih and Ivano-Frankivsk.”

The study notes that building brand new plants is unlikely, but modernising existing kilns can be accomplished within a year. It expects at least two plants to launch new kilns, increasing capacity by 2Mt/yr. For example, Kryvyi Rih Cement has obtained a permit to develop the Maryanske limestone deposit (60km from the plant) and plans to build a clinker kiln at the site.

CBR researcher Tetiana Sytnyk said “Cement companies are ready to make rapid investments in modernisation and to launch additional kilns once recovery begins. They’re waiting for clear signals to proceed – such as the allocation of reconstruction funds or a surge in demand to at least 9.5Mt/yr.”

Ukraine exported 1.7Mt of cement in 2024, up from 56,000t in 2021, with Kachur adding that exports have ‘saved’ the local industry during the war. Developed countries will be capable of meeting Ukraine’s reconstruction needs, though this could hurt local producers. Kachur added “During the recovery phase, Ukraine’s market must be as localised as possible with domestic products. Only countries that supported us during the war should have access.”

Pakistan: Total cement despatches, including domestic sales and exports, fell by 9% year-on-year to 3.57Mt in March 2025, according to the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association. Domestic sales dropped by 11% to 2.96Mt, while exports remained stable at 0.61Mt. North-based plants recorded an 85% year-on-year fall in exports to 0.019Mt from 0.12Mt. South-based plants increased exports by 23% to 0.59Mt from 0.48Mt a year earlier.

Between July 2024 and March 2025, total despatches declined by 1% year-on-year to 34Mt. Domestic sales dropped by 7% to 27.5Mt, while exports rose by 28% to 6.53Mt.

Kenya: Cement consumption rose by 27% year-on-year in January 2025, up by 4% in December 2024, according to provisional data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. Cement production also grew by 21% year-on-year in January following more than a year of contraction. In the 12 months to January 2025, cement consumption fell by 5% year-on-year and cement production dropped by 6% year-on-year.