Displaying items by tag: residential

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) Market Intelligence Group has released its Spring 2021 Regional Forecasts for the Northeast, Central, West, and Southeast regions. Residential construction has been identified as the main driver of consumption growth in most regions.

The Pacific sub-region of the West is forecast to grow by 1.1% year-on-year in 2021, while the Mountain sub-region will drop by 0.7% following strong growth in 2020.

The West South Central sub-region is expected to rise by 2.3% and the West North Central by 1.2%. In the former this will be supported by residential demand and a recovery in the oil well cement market. The PCA added that he sub-region maintains very strong construction fundamentals given demand from strong in-migration and an expanding tax base.

The PCA noted that the Northeast had been hit ‘hard’ by the coronavirus pandemic but that cement consumption still grew by 0.6% in 2020. In 2021 the association has forecast growth of 0.1%. Although residential construction is expected to drive demand the association said that the region is expected to lag behind national trends in public cement consumption given, “state fiscal conditions and the characteristics of the region.”

Finally, the PCA forecasts that cement consumption in the South Atlantic sub-region will be ‘strong’ with growth of 6.8% in 2021 and 2.1% in 2022. Demand in the East South Central sub-region is also expected to be positive with consumption growth of 7.6% in 2021 and 1.9% in 2022.

US: Cobod’s modular BOD2 3D construction printer is being used to build a 160m² residential house in Tempe, Arizona. The new house will be ready for its occupants by September 2021. The building has been designed by Candelaria Associates.

General manager Henrik Lund-Nielsen said, “Our 3D construction technology and printers have enjoyed immense success in Europe, Africa, The Middle East, and Asia. Obviously, due to our long-term cooperation with GE, we have some success with US customers also. Still, we are really pleased that our printers are now beginning to make a stronger inroad into the US construction market. More and more US companies realise that our technology is superior to what local suppliers can deliver. Our printers have done buildings in two US states now and more will follow in the coming months.”

UK: The Mineral Products Association (MPA) has described first-quarter building materials demand as ‘resilient’ in 2021 despite renewed coronavirus lockdown restrictions, on-going supply chain disruptions and wet winter weather. Following a recent survey the association says that continued housing activity – with increased home improvements – and an acceleration in infrastructure work, driven by a new roads programme and the start of the HS2 high-speed railway, drove minor growth during the quarter. Ready-mix concrete demand rose by 2% year-on-year, while mortar demand fell by 7% during the period. The MPA said that both products are mostly used in the early stages of construction, thus serving as a barometer for construction activity ahead in the short term.

The MPA reports that since September 2020, construction growth has remained close to zero, whilst new contract awards have been ’weak’ since May 2020. The downward trend of housing-led mortar demand in the first quarter of 2021 continues a pre-pandemic decline since mid-2018. Thus, housing activity growth is considered unlikely to continue beyond the completion of existing projects ahead of the end of a land tax holiday and a deadline in a first time buyers loan scheme. The MPA described the slow growth of ready-mixed concrete demand as ‘concerning.’ Low housing activity and few new commercial projects compounded the difficult recovery: non-infrastructure projects normally generate 60% of demand. Ready-mix concrete producers rely on London and the South East region for over 30% of sales. First-quarter volumes were 9% below the previous five-year average, despite three consecutive quarters of growth since the first coronavirus lockdown in the first half of 2020.

Director of Economics Affairs Aurelie Delannoy said, “Mineral products manufacturers are busy supplying post- lockdown pent-up demand, particularly for domestic activity such as landscaping, repair and maintenance and home improvements, as well as infrastructure projects.” She added “The outlook for this year and next is also positive, but the stakes are high. Any optimism assumes activity is not disrupted by renewed outbreaks of Covid-19 and, most importantly, relies on the government delivering on its planned infrastructure commitments. MPA members tell us they are yet to see a more clear-cut pick-up in new house building, whilst any recovery in commercial development is expected to remain muted given the current reticence for major new investments.”

Uzbekistan: The government has suspended tariffs on cement imports from all countries until 1 October 2021. The UzDaily newspaper has reported that the suspension is part of a raft of measures aimed at ‘providing the population with housing’ by bolstering construction. The measures consist of funding for multi-story housing developments, a separate trading exchange for cement and the roll-out of a new standard design for residential buildings from 1 May 2021.

Many Saudi Arabian cement producers have reported increased annual sales and profits in recent weeks. Southern Province Cement’s sales revenue rose by 27% year-on-year to US$440m in 2020 from US$347m in 2019. Net Profit after zakat and tax increased to US$162m from US$123m. Other producers enjoyed similar boosts. The reason can be seen in the country’s domestic cement sales. They rose by 21% year-on-year to 51Mt in 2020 from 42Mt in 2019. After a promising start to the year the coronavirus pandemic hit local production hard in the second quarter of 2020. However, it nearly doubled year-on-year in June 2020 and kept up the pace thereafter.

Graph 1: Domestic cement sales in Saudi Arabia, 2010 – 2020. Source: Yamama Cement.

Graph 1 above puts the cement sales in 2020 into context over the last decade. Sales hit a high in 2015 but then started to wane as infrastructure spending dried up due to lower oil prices and decreased government spending. A ban on exporting cement was subsequently relaxed but the general market appeared to adapt to the new situation. This changed significantly in 2020 with analysts attributing the turnaround to programs organised by the Ministry of Housing. This growth has carried into 2021 with NCB Capital forecasting an increase of 3.5% in local cement sales in 2021 due to the ongoing housing programs, the country’s so-called ‘Giga’ projects and investment by its sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), as part of its 2021 - 2025 strategy. They reported that demand created by the country’s large-scale projects began to be felt along the supply chain in the fourth quarter of 2020 and associated contracts have started to be issued.

To give an example of the scale of some of these schemes, one of the proposed giga projects is to build a new city called Neom from scratch near the Red Sea coast. The resulting conurbation is intended to showcase new technologies and diversify the Saudi Arabian economy away from hydrocarbons. It has a price tag of US$500bn. An airport was built in 2019 and a next step was announced in January 2021, introducing a 160km linear city without roads called ‘The Line.’ Doubtless it will require lots of cement to realise the dream in whatever forms it happens to end up taking.

The wider picture here is that global oil prices hit a low in April 2020 as coronavirus lockdowns triggered a worldwide drop in demand although they then started to recover. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product fell by just under 4% in 2020. In response the PIF has upped its investment in the local economy including in the ‘Giga’ projects like Neom. There has been scepticism internationally about whether these projects will progress any further beyond press releases and actually get built. However, the cement producers’ financial results, cement sales figures and reporting from analysts like NCB Capital show that some investment is happening and it’s having results. The sector still faces a battle against overcapacity. It had a production utilisation rate of just under 70% despite the increase in cement production in 2020. Yet cement producers in Saudi Arabia have done well. While the Saudi Arabian government continues to spend on infrastructure in order to rebalance its economy this looks set to continue.

Saudi Arabia: NCB Capital has predicted a growth in Saudi cement sales of 4% year-on-year to 52.8Mt in 2021. The investment and analyst division of National Commercial Bank described the sector’s outlook as ‘positive,’ due to on-going housing programmes and the Public Investment Fund’s 2021 – 2025 strategy, as well as a pick-up in infrastructure projects.

Bolivia: Fabrica Nacional de Cemento (FANCESA) has secured a contract for the supply of over 582,000t of cement to the Nueva Santa Cruz Ciudad Inteligente housing development near Santa Cruz. The Correo del Sur newspaper has reported that value of the contract as US$72.0m.

Russia: Eurocement has won a tender to supply up to 150,000t of cement to PIK Group. Its Voronezh and Mikhailovcement plants will supply CEM I and CEM II products respectively. PIK Group is one of the largest residential building companies in Russia. Eurocement said that the contract is one of the largest direct contracts it has signed and that it would ensure production in the first half of 2021.

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has updated its winter 2020 – 2021 economic forecast. Senior vice president and chief economist Ed Sullivan said that in light of possible delays of three months or more to the national Covid-19 vaccine rollout, predicted robust economic recovery will be ‘slower than expected’ compared to expectations stated in the original forecast in December 2020. The PCA’s Market Intelligence Group expects cement consumption to grow by nearly 1% year-on-year in 2021, fueled largely by residential construction.

Germany: Denmark-based COBOD has supplied its BOD2 3D construction printer to the site of the world’s first 3D printed commercial apartment building in Wallenhausen, Bavaria. COBOD partner PERI will use the product to print a 380m² complex, consisting of five apartments across three stories.

General manager and founder of COBOD Henrik Lund-Nielsen said, “We are incredibly pleased, that we are beginning to see the fruits of the many 3D construction printers we have sold. The actual building projects have been delayed by the Coronavirus outbreak, but now they start to be revealed. This new German project is really a great milestone as the commercial nature of the building proves the competitiveness of the 3D construction printing technology for three floors buildings and apartment buildings. This, again, opens entirely new markets for our printers.”