Displaying items by tag: Forecast

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has forecasted a fourth-quarter cement demand decline of 1.5% year-on-year in 2020, slowing to 0.9% throughout 2021. It said that all three of its post-coronavirus economic recovery scenarios involved a decline until mid-2021, primarily due to “weak construction sectors specifically within retail, hotel and office” non-residential markets, though in the best-case scenario a vaccine could prompt a recovery in these sectors, reducing total demand decline to 0.1% in the second half of 2021. A worst-case ‘W-shaped’ scenario would result from state governments implementing second lockdowns.

Senior vice president and chief economist Ed Sullivan said, “We think that the gradual sustained recovery – the 'U' – has the largest likelihood, followed by the 'vaccine' scenario. The growth-interrupted 'W' scenario is the least likely. He said that in each case federal spending in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021 would be essential “in preventing a deep and prolonged downturn in economic recovery,” as it did in the second and third quarters of 2020.

China: Gansu Qilianshan Cement has announced that it expects to record a profit of US$208m in the first nine months of 2020, up by 41% year-on-year from US$147m in the corresponding period of 2019, according to Reuters. It said the results would be in line with its growth trajectory thanks to a significant increase in demand towards the end of the first half of 2020.

China: Huaxin Cement has published a figure for its predicted profit for the first nine months of 2020 of US$135m, down by 44% from US$241m in the first nine months of 2019. The company attributed the forecasted decline “mainly to the severe impact of the coronavirus epidemic in the first half of 2020 and the large-scale flooding in the River Yangtze in July.” It added, “The production and sales of the company’s leading products were greatly affected, and prices also fell, resulting in operating income decline.” The company noted that third-quarter profit is expected to increase by 5% year-on-year.

Indonesia: Semen Indonesia has said that it expects a 14% year-on-year decline in domestic cement demand to 50Mt in 2020 from 58Mt in 2019. The Jakarta Post newspaper has reported that the coronavirus outbreak was the primary cause of a 7.7% first-half decline in cement consumption to 27Mt from 29Mt.

Marketing and supply chain director Adi Munandir said, “Our projection is based on the delay in private construction projects and the government’s infrastructure development as a result of the Covid-19 crisis. This has caused demand to slump by 8.8% in July 2020, and we expect this slump to continue to the end of the year.” He noted the retail housing market as a potential sales boost, saying, “We saw an uptick in cement bag sales during the first half of 2020, as home renovations rose due to the pandemic.”

India: Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has forecast a 15% year-on-year decline in domestic cement demand in the 2021 financial year, which ends on 30 March 2021 due to “weak property demand and a sluggish construction cycle.” Fitch Ratings gave the reasons for the decline as “low consumer confidence caused by business uncertainty and unemployment concerns,” causing “underlying appetites of financial institutions to lend to the construction sector to remain weak” in spite of the Reserve Bank of India’s temporary funding relief measures to the sector, which include “loan restructuring, moratoriums and relaxed lending limits.”

Fitch Ratings reported that steel demand will also fall by 10% in the 2021 financial year.

Denmark: FLSmidth has announced the reinstatement of its 2020 guidance. The guidance predicts full-year sales of Euro2.28bn, down by 18% year-on-year from Euro2.77bn. Earnings before taxation, interest, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin is expected to decline to 6.0% from 8.1%. The company said that the guidance is “subject to higher uncertainty than usual” and conditional upon “no further escalation of Covid-19, no further extensive lockdowns or travel restrictions occurring before year-end, a gradual improvement in business sentiment for the remainder of 2020, and business improvement implementation of around Euro28.2m, of which Euro18.8m relate to the previously communicated improvement activities and around Euro9.40m relate to further improvement activities in cement.” It added, “The cement industry has been severely impacted, and the timing and extent of a rebound remain uncertain. Our goal for the cement business is to generate more stable, higher-margin earnings.”

Australia: Adelaide Brighton has recorded a net profit of US$21.1m in the first half of 2020, compared to a US$13.0m loss in the first half of 2019. Revenues fell by 7.3% to US$508m from US$548m due to a 12% construction decline over the period, according to the company. Residential construction fell by 16%, however mining and infrastructure activity remained consistent with levels in the first half of 2019. Adelaide Brighton said, “Cement demand is likely to continue to benefit from a strong production outlook for gold, nickel, and iron ore in particular, and stable demand from the alumina sector.”

Uzbekistan: Uzbekqurilishmateriallari deputy chair Ulugbek Abrayev has said that Uzbek cement production capacity will total 20.0Mt/yr before 1 January 2021, up by 60% year-on-year from 12.5Mt at the start of 2020. Abrayev added that, due to growing demand, Uzbekistan will produce 14.5Mt in 2021, corresponding to 73% utilisation of projected capacity. A total of ten cement plant projects across eight of the country’s 12 regions are due for completion in 2020 and 2021.

South Africa: PPC has said that it may issue a rights offer for US$68.7m-worth of shares in order to raise funds to ‘repay and restructure debt locally and in other African markets, and to refinance after the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.’ Pretoria News has reported that PPC has forecasted a 20% year-on-year drop in earnings in the year to 31 March 2020 due to ‘a slump in domestic demand and an influx of cheaper Chinese imports, even prior to lockdown.’

There has been good news from the German Cement Works Association (VDZ) this week. Following a strong start to the year, the association expects cement consumption in 2020 to remain similar to the level, 28.7Mt, reported in 2019. VDZ president Christian Knell acknowledged the difficulty in making forecasts, this year of all years, but said that the association remained positive since demand had held up so well. He noted the continued operation of construction sites, despite the local coronavirus-related lockdown from March 2020, and the ‘quick action’ of politicians.

Graph 1: German cement deliveries, 2015 – 2019: Source: German Cement Works Association (VDZ).

The year certainly started well, with a 33% year-on-year increase in domestic cement deliveries to 1.43Mt in January 2020 from 1.07Mt in January 2019. This was due in part to good weather, although it also looks good because 2019 started badly compared to 2018. Yet, the VDZ’s assessment has been supported by the results of the main producers operating in the country. HeidelbergCement reported that Germany bucked the trend of its Western and Southern Europe Group area in the first half of 2020 with a ‘positive market development’ whereas deliveries declined significantly everywhere else. Similarly, LafargeHolcim noted a ‘resilient’ performance in Germany. Buzzi Unicem released a more detailed assessment, with shipments of hydraulic binders down in April and May 2020 but then back up with a recovery in June 2020. Overall its cement plants reported a slight decline in sales for the first half of the year. Concrete production grew however, by 6% year-on-year, possibly aided by the plants that the group purchased in 2019.

Germany’s success appears to be down to two factors. The first, as Knell mentioned above, is that it was able to keep much of its construction industry open through its lockdown. Dieter Babiel, the head of Hauptverband der Deutschen Bauindustrie – the main German construction industry association - reckoned that the industry was operating at about 80% capacity in May 2020 compared to the situation in other large European countries like France, the UK, Spain and Italy where building sites totally closed at the height of local lockdowns before gradual reopening. Bauindustrie has since reported falling monthly order intake as coronavirus-effects on the general economy filter through to construction. The other reason is that the country has managed to control its outbreak better compared to other European countries. It has reported the third most cases in Europe but its fatality rate is only 4% compared to 14% in the UK, Italy and France. This has been attributed to strong public health measures and high levels of testing, particularly with respect to elderly residential care.

It’s not all plain sailing though since the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a 7.8% decline in Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020. Likewise, the VDZ is predicting weakening construction markets and cement demand in the fourth quarter of 2020. It cited falling orders and requests for building permits as mounting evidence for this trend. From here a gloomier outlook is foreseen for 2021 as construction budgets for commercial and government projects are cut. At the same time uncertainty in the labour market is expected to drag down the residential market. With this in mind the VDZ is predicting cement demand to drop by 3 – 5% in 2021.

To end on an upbeat note, if the VDZ’s forecasts are accurate, then the German cement sector looks like it might weather the coronavirus-downturn better than other industries. It knows a downturn in construction is coming and it can prepare for it.