Analysis

China Daily ran a story this week entitled “Steel and cement don't reflect China's growth story any more.” The piece reassured English-language readers that the country’s economy is moving on and that recent falling production of cement simply reflected the “profound changes China's economic structure is undergoing.” Profound is the right word here given that China is home to the world’s largest cement sector.

Graph 1: Cement output by quarter in China, 2019 - 2022. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology shows that cement output fell by 12% year-on-year to 387Mt in the first quarter of 2022. This compares to 7% and 15% falls in the third and fourth quarters of 2021 respectively. On an annual cumulative rolling basis, output previously hit a low of 2.22Bnt in March 2020 as the initial coronavirus outbreak was brought under control. Output then surged to a high of 2.53Bnt/yr in April 2021 before it started to fall in the autumn of 2021. On a monthly basis, output volumes fell by 5.6% year-on-year to 187Mt in March 2022.

As covered in last week’s column (GCW 555), the financial results from the larger Chinese cement producers have also suffered in the first quarter of 2022. CNBM’s total operating revenue fell by 1% year-on-year to US$7.29bn in the first quarter of 2022. Anhui Conch’s revenue fell by 26% to US$3.85bn and China Resources Cement’s (CRC) turnover fell by 18% to US$889m. Of these three only CRC has released cement sales volumes. Its sales volumes of cement and clinker decreased by 34% and 12% respectively.

In its own analysis, the China Cement Association (CCA) has summarised the current situation as one of rising costs, falling demand and declining benefits. The latest large-scale coronavirus lockdowns and a poor real estate market have hit demand. Rising energy and freight prices have increased the cost of cement. Together, higher costs and falling demand have hit the profits of the cement producers. CNBM’s net profit, for example, fell by 9% to US$420m. Regionally, the CCA observed that the losses of the northern-based producers had increased and that the profits of the southern producers had started to fall sharply also. Another interesting point it made was that the year-on-year decline in March 2022 was slower than compared to the first quarter as a whole and that high levels of inventory may have made March 2022 look worse than it actually was. The association is now pinning its hopes upon demand and prices picking up again later in the second quarter after the current quarantine controls are eased and the government curbs high coal prices.

The CCA’s take doesn’t seem unreasonable, although the first quarter of 2022 was previously deemed to be a continuation of the trouble the Chinese cement sector experienced in the autumn of 2021. Possibly the first quarter has turned out worse than expected but the monthly output in March 2022 has started to look like it might be a tail-off from the worst. The period to watch remains the second quarter of 2022. Looking more widely, energy shocks from the war in Ukraine couldn’t be easily predicted but coal prices were already becoming a concern in the autumn of 2021. China’s renewed zero-Covid policy meanwhile is starting to look unpalatable both economically and socially. Throw in a continued slowdown of the real estate sector and China Daily’s profound pronouncement about the future of cement may prove accurate.

Many first quarter financial results for cement producers are out already and what can be seen so far deserves discussion. The first observation is that the sales revenues of Chinese companies have suffered compared to their international peers. As can be seen in Graph 1 (below) CNBM increased its sales slightly in the first quarter of 2022 but Anhui Conch and China Resources Cement (CRC) had significant falls. Stronger results from CNBM’s non-cement production subsidiaries released so far suggest that the parent company’s slow performance is likely due to the cement market. The China Cement Association has reported that national cement output dropped by 12% year-on-year to 387Mt in the first quarter of 2022. It blamed this on the latest local coronavirus wave, limited construction project funds and poor weather.

Graph 1: Sales revenues in the first quarter of 2022 from selected cement producers. Source: Company financial reports. Note: SCG data is for its building materials division only.

Outside of China sales revenue growth has been better with Holcim and Dangote Cement leading the companies presented here. Holcim attributed its success to “strong demand, acquisitions and pricing”. Demand and pricing have been familiar refrains in many of the results reports this quarter. The undertone though has been the destabilising effects upon energy prices by the ongoing war in Ukraine. Holcim’s head Jan Jenisch summed it up as navigating “challenging times, from the pandemic to geopolitical uncertainty.” The producers with operations in the Americas and Europe seem to have coped with this so far mostly due to resurgent markets. Quarterly sales revenue growth for Holcim, CRH (not shown in the graphs) and Cemex each exceeded 10% year-on-year in both of these regions.

The regionally focused companies presented here have suffered more. India-based UltraTech Cement said that its energy costs grew by 48%, with prices of petcoke and coal doubling during the period. Nigeria-based Dangote Cement reported that its group sales volumes were down 3.6% mainly due to energy supply challenges in Nigeria. Internationally, its operations relying on cement and clinker imports – in Ghana, Sierra-Leone and Cameroon – were also hit by high freight rates caused by global supply chain issues. Thailand-based SCG said that national demand for cement demand fell by 3% due to negative geopolitical effects causing inflation, a delay to the recovery of tourism and a generally subdued market.

Graph 2: Cement sales volumes in the first quarter of 2022 from selected cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

It’s too early to read much into it but one final point is worth considering from cement sales volumes in the first quarter of 2022. They have appeared to fall for the companies that have actually released the data. The reasons for CRC in China and Dangote Cement in Sub-Saharan Africa have been covered above. Holcim’s volume decline was 2% on a like-for-like basis and the others were all very small changes.

To summarise, it’s been a good quarter for those cement producers covered here with operations in North American and Europe. Energy instability caused by the war in Ukraine so far seems to have been passed on to consumers through higher prices with no apparent ill effect. The regional producers have suffered more, with the Chinese ones having to cope with falling demand and the others finding it harder to absorb mounting energy costs and supply chain issues. Plenty more first quarter results are due from other cement companies in the next few days and weeks and it will be interesting to see whether these trends hold or if others are taking place.

Cement shortages were being reported in the US media last week in Alabama and South Carolina. The owner of a ready-mixed concrete supplier in South Carolina was blaming it on labour and supply shortages. Dan Crosby, the president of Metrocon, told Fox News that his business could only take on 60% of the work it could normally cope with due to the issue despite demand for construction growing in the state. Meanwhile, the Alabama Concrete Industries Association said that its home state saw a 14% increase in the demand for concrete in 2021 but that a cement shortage might cause delays to projects. The association also pointed the blame at labour and supply issues. It pointed out that high demand for concrete during the winter prevented inventory being built up and then the annual cement plant maintenance breaks in the spring added to the problems. Once contractors actually secured supplies of cement they then faced further delays due to a nationwide truck driver shortage!

Graph 1: Annual rolling cement shipments in the South of the US. Source: USGS.

Data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) doesn’t especially shed light on the situation in Alabama and South Carolina. Alabama was the fifth largest cement producing state in the country in January 2022 but this is unsurprising as it’s the state with the fifth largest cement production capacity. Rolling annual data on Portland and blended cement shipments by origin show the effects of the coronavirus outbreak in the south from the start of 2020 to January 2022. Shipments took a dive in 2020 and then mostly recovered in 2021. However, Alabama, Kentucky and Tennessee saw shipments rise from 7.1Mt pre-pandemic to 7.6Mt in January 2022. South Carolina’s shipments grew from 3Mt to 3.2Mt. Regionally, the North East had a similar pattern although, unlike the South, shipments have surpassed those at the start of 2020. The Midwest and West were different with a general upwards trend over the two years, although the West softened slightly from mid-2021 onwards. Overall the US as a whole has seen its shipments grow throughout this period.

Ed Sullivan from the Portland Cement Association (PCA) told the May 2022 issue of Global Cement Magazine that the US cement sector did well in 2021 with a 4.1% year-on-year rise in sales to 104Mt. However, he flagged up supply chain problems that actually slowed growth, led by a lack of staff.

The other point along these lines that Sullivan made was that imports of cement might not necessarily be able to compensate for domestic supply issues due to global demand for shipping post-coronavirus. USGS data placed imports to the US at 13.7Mt in 2019 compared to 16.3Mt in 2021. Notably, Cemex restarted one production line in 2021 at its CPN cement plant in Sonora State in Mexico to export cement to the west of the US. In March 2022 it added that it was going to restart another line at the plant also. It’s not alone though as GCC reported in January 2022 that a line at one of its plants in Chihuahua, Mexico, was exporting cement to Texas. Sullivan reckoned that January 2022 was ‘weak’ but that it was followed by an ‘extremely strong’ February 2022. The first quarter results from Holcim and CRH seem to back this up with the former describing the period as ‘outstanding’ and the region leading its sales and earnings growth rate globally. CRH reported strong demand in central and southern regions.

As the US economy restarted following the peak of the early coronavirus waves in 2020, various supply chain issues have manifested. Staff shortages are one issue and this can also worsen other logistic problems. The south seems particularly vulnerable to all of this as it is both the country’s largest cement market and because demand has held up. In January 2022 research by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) identified several reasons for staff shortages in the US and the UK. These included increased inactivity among older workers, the so called ‘She-cession’ (where female employment has overly reduced due to coronavirus trends) and shifting worker preferences amid strong labour demand.

Staff shortages are expected to sort themselves out throughout 2022 but favourable forecast demand for cement in the US is balanced by inflationary pressure. Persistent low staffing levels could further add to inflation growth. The US cement sector may be doing well at the moment but even success carries risks.

Global Cement’s Robert McCaffrey will be giving a keynote presentation at the IEEE-PCA Cement Conference in Las Vegas on Tuesday 3 May 2022. The May 2022 issue of Global Cement Magazine, including interviews with PCA chief executive officer Mike Ireland and chief economist Ed Sullivan, is available to download now.

This week’s big story has been that Holcim may be considering selling its business in India. Both the Economic Times newspaper and Bloomberg separately reported that the owner of Ambuja Cement and ACC has been holding early talks with local producers. The discussions have been described as exploratory and an eventual divestment is far from certain. The combined market value of both companies was placed at US$15bn, at the time that the story broke, making it one of the largest potential acquisitions in India. Holcim has refused to comment on the matter.

If it actually happened then the scale of this potential sale would be breathtaking. Holcim has been gradually slimming down since the merger between Lafarge and Holcim in 2015. The big divestments mostly came after the appointment of former Sika boss Jan Jenisch in 2017. Four integrated plants and other assets were sold in Indonesia for US$1.75bn in 2019, a 51% stake in three integrated plants and two grinding plants were sold in Malaysia for US$396m (also in 2019) and five integrated plants were approved for sale in Brazil for US$1.03bn in April 2022.

A complete divestment of Ambuja Cement and ACC in India would see 17 integrated plants and 14 grinding plants being sold with a production capacity of around 66Mt/yr. If any company did buy the lot in one go, at a stroke it would become the second-largest cement producer in the world’s second-largest second market. The nearest acquisition in the last decade that comes close to this was when CRH purchased 24 cement plants with a production capacity of 36Mt/yr from Lafarge and Holcim in 2015 for US$6.5bn.

2022 would certainly be a good time to sell up with both Ambuja Cement and ACC having reported strong sales and earnings figures in 2021 following the coronavirus-related lockdowns in 2020. Performance is even better compared to 2019. Ambuja Cement’s net sales and earnings before taxation, interest, depreciation and amortisation (EBTIDA) grew by 23% year-on-year to US$1.81bn and by 21% to US$420m respectively in 2021. ACC’s sales and operating EBITDA grew by 17% to US$2.07bn and 28% to US$393m respectively in 2021. However, ACC’s net sales growth was much lower compared to that in 2019. Ambuja Cement produced 25.9Mt of cement in 2021 with a production capacity of 31.5Mt giving it a utilisation rate of 82%. ACC produced 26.9Mt of cement in 2021 with a production of 34.5Mt/yr giving it a utilisation rate of 78%. Both of these rates are higher than the national cement sector rates forecast by analysts of up to 64% in the 2022 financial year. The corporate specifics of any sale are that Holcim owns a majority stake in Ambuja Cement, which in turn owns a majority stake in ACC. In other words: buy one, get the other.

One wider question here is whether there are still any companies and investors out there prepared to put money on this scale into a carbon-intensive industry with net-zero deadlines on the way. Ahead of the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in November 2021, India’s prime minister Narendra Modi pledged that his country would cut its emissions to net-zero by 2070. There’s plenty of time left to turn a profit, as cement kilns last about 50 years, but the risk of investing in a stranded asset is growing if the targets are honoured or even brought forward. As a recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report put it, “Cement and concrete are currently overused because they are inexpensive, durable, and ubiquitous, and consumption decisions typically do not give weight to their production emissions.” All of this suggests that buyers might well be more interested in purchasing parts of Holcim’s Indian operations rather than the whole bundle or breaking operations up further down the line. And that’s even before any competition concerns related to any local buyers are considered. Holcim, for its part, has shown with recent divestments, such as its business in Northern Ireland, that it isn’t necessarily against smaller piecemeal divestments. Negotiations, if they are indeed happening, will be closely guarded.

Vicat’s plans to buy another 42% stake in Sinai Cement became public this week. Once completed, the France-based company should own 98% of the Egyptian company, based on previously published ownership figures. The announcement heralds a rapprochement in the relationship between the cement producer and the Egyptian government.

Last year Vicat raised a case against the government with the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) over an argument about how it could invest in Sinai Cement as a foreign company. All seems forgiven and forgotten now with a settlement agreement signed in March 2022 between Rania el Mashat, the Minister of International Cooperation on behalf of the Egyptian government, and Guy Sidos, the chairman and chief executive officer of Vicat Group. Local press reported that the government is trying to attract more direct foreign investment. Sinai Cement reported a loss attributable to its parent company of around US$19.1m in 2021, down from a loss of US$30.3m in 2020. However, its sales rose by 63% year-on-year to US$78m.

Sinai Cement has some specific operating issues related to its geographic position in the Sinai Peninsula and ongoing security concerns. Yet its mixed fortunes also sum up some of the continuing challenges the Egyptian cement industry is facing. After years of overcapacity, the government introduced reduced cement production quotas in July 2021 and this is mostly perceived to have improved prices in the second half of the year. Vicat described the arrangement as having capped the local market at 65% of its production capacity and it said that prices recovered ‘significantly’ as a result in the second half of 2021. Cemex’s regional chief Carlos Gonzalez told local press that the move had given plants “A glimmer of hope for the return of balance to the cement market.” The company has also announced a US$20m local investment backing up this view. Not all the foreign multinational companies entirely agreed, with HeidelbergCement reporting a ‘sharp’ decline in sales volumes although chief executive officer Dominik von Achten did describe the country as ‘coming back’ in an earnings call about his company’s financial results in 2021. Solomon Baumgartner Aviles, the chief executive officer of Lafarge Egypt, was also cooler about the production cap in a press interview in October 2021, describing it as too early to assess how well the cap was working and noting that the gap between supply and demand was still large.

Vicat said in its annual report for 2021 that, “Provided no further adverse geopolitical, health or security developments occur, the current climate is unlikely to jeopardise the prospects of an improvement in the subsidiary’s profitability, which should begin to gradually occur.” The geopolitical bit was timely given that Russia’s war in Ukraine started on 24 February 2022. It also targets the latest problem hitting Egyptian cement producers: energy costs. The head of Arabian Cement told Enterprise Press that initially some producers had opted to temporarily stop production and use stocks instead to attempt to try and wait until the energy price volatility ended. However, it stayed high so the cost of cement has gone up generally. Producers are now trying to switch to using a high ratio of natural gas, such as 10%, but this is dependent on the government letting them.

The Egyptian government, for its part, is facing a decision whether to supply subsidised gas for domestic industry or to export to Europe. The backstory here is that Egyptian cement producers are facing yet another step change in fuel supply. In the mid-2010s lots of plants switched from heavy fuel oil and gas to coal. High international coal prices could be heralding another change.

Alongside this the value of Egypt’s cement exports rose by 151% year-on-year to US$456m in 2021 from US$182m in 2020. The Cement Division of the Federation of Egyptian Industries has attributed this to growth mainly on the African market. This trend continued in January and February 2022 with cement exports up by 141% year-on-year to US$104m from US$43m. The main destinations were Ghana, Cameroon, Ivory Coast and Libya.

HeidelbergCement summed up the current state of the Egyptian cement market in its 2021 annual report as follows “The development of the Egyptian cement market continues to be determined by government intervention.” What happens next is very much in the hands of the state as it decides whether to extend the production cap, which fuels to subsidise, whether to allow exports and where to invest in infrastructure projects. One variation on this theme may be local decarbonisation targets. At the end of March 2022 the Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA) launched a series of Net Zero Accelerator initiatives, including one in Egypt. How a country that produces more cement than it needs reduces its CO₂ emissions presents another challenge for manufacturers and the government to grapple with.