Analysis

Ecocem announced this week that it has achieved certification in the US for its ACT low-carbon cement technology. This follows CRH’s agreement to buy US-based Eco Material Technologies, a supplier of supplementary cementitious materials (SCM), which was revealed in late July 2025. These moves and others mark a flurry of activity by various companies in the US SCM sector in recent months.

Donal O’Riain, the founder and managing director of Ireland-based Ecocem, underlined the importance of certification in North America when he said that “The US is one of the largest cement markets in the world, and this certification will support integration into existing supply chains and offers a pathway for the sector to rapidly decarbonise.” The country imported just under a fifth, 19Mt, of its Portland and blended cement in 2024 according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS).

Ecocem started out as a manufacturer of cements made using ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBS), a SCM, in the early 2000s. Its ACT technology was formally announced in 2022. It is described as a process that can make cements using “available fillers like limestone and local SCMs.” It is currently scheduled for a commercial launch in 2026, starting in France. In the US it is planning to build a terminal and mill at the Port of Los Angeles in California. This follows a previous attempt to build a slag grinding plant, also in California, in the 2010s.

CRH, another cement company with strong links to Ireland incidentally, said on 29 July 2025 that it had agreed to acquire Eco Material for US$2.1bn. The latter operates a network of fly ash, pozzolan, synthetic gypsum and green cement operations. It partners with electricity generators to process about 7Mt/yr of fly ash and 3Mt/yr of synthetic gypsum and other materials. As CRH’s CEO Jim Mintern put it, “this transaction secures the long-term supply of critical materials for future growth and puts CRH at the forefront of the transition to next generation cement and concrete.” The deal is expected to close by the end of 2025. In separate comments to analysts Mintern added that he expects the market for SCMs to double in the US by 2050.

Other players have also been busy in recent months. Amrize, for example, noted in its financial results for the second quarter of 2025 that it had broken ground on a new fly ash beneficiation facility in Virginia in the reporting period. Last week, Graymont and Fortera signed an agreement to produce Fortera’s ReAct low-carbon cement product by using Graymont’s existing lime production operations. Fortera runs a plant in Redding, California that takes captured CO₂ from the adjacent CalPortland cement plant and uses it to manufacture its own proprietary SCM. Back in April 2025 Buzzi Unicem said that it had partnered with Queens Carbon to produce a novel cement and SCM. The start-up was intending to build a 2000t/yr demonstration plant at Buzzi Unicem’s cement plant in Stockertown, Pennsylvania.

The backdrop to all of this attention on SCMs in the US are the cost of cement and sustainability. Using more SCMs reduces clinker usage in cement and it can reduce the cost. At the same time reducing the amount of clinker used decreases the amount of CO₂ emissions. So, for example, Ecocem says that its ACT technology can reduce CO₂ emissions by up to 70% compared to conventional cement.

A report by Mckinsey on SCMs in the autumn of 2024 reckoned that growth in the cement market in North America was expected to be ‘robust’ in the next 15 years to 2050. However, the sector faces material, particularly clinker, and labour shortages. Enter SCMs! It went on to assert that much of the available stocks of GGBS and fly ash in the country are effectively used. Yet, traditional industrial SCMs such as GGBS, fly ash and limestone are anticipated to be available for longer than in Europe as industries such as steel manufacture and electricity generation will take longer to decarbonise. Hence companies such as Ecocem are preparing to import them, ones like CRH are cornering existing stocks and others such as Fortera and Queens Carbon are working on creating their own ‘virgin’ sources. At the same time the American Cement Association has been promoting the use of Portland Limestone Cement in the country.

All this helps to explain the interest in SCMs in the US right now. It’s a busy moment.

It’s been a sobering week for the cement sector in South Korea with the release of sales data for the first half of 2025.

Data from the Korea Cement Association (KCA) shows that local shipments of cement fell by 17% year-on-year to 18.8Mt in the first half of the year. The last time half-year output was reported to be below 20Mt was in 1992. The association noted that a ‘severe’ construction recession had continued from 2024. An uptick in demand for building materials is anticipated in the second half of 2025 due to postponed construction work but it is expected to be limited by a forthcoming government budget. The association said that output for the whole of 2025 is forecast to be “significantly below 40Mt unless effective construction stimulus measures are available.”

Graph 1: Cement shipments in South Korea, 2019 - 2025. Source: Korea Cement Association.

20Mt of cement output marks a dividing line in the South Korea-based market in recent decades. Previous economic low points over the last 30 years include the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s and the 2008 financial crash triggered by the subprime market in the US. However, on neither occasion did half-year cement output in South Korea fall below 20Mt. The current situation is likely to be reflected in the financial results of the local manufacturers, when they are released later in August 2025, following poor first-quarter figures.

The general construction sector is facing a tough time, with construction companies facing a liquidity crunch as lending rules have been tightened. At the same time prices and labour costs are both reportedly up by 30% in the past three years. One reaction to this in Autumn 2024 was plans suggested by construction companies to import cement from China. This gained some support from the government, which said it was looking at ways to reduce costs, but then faced opposition in the National Assembly. It is unclear what has happened since then, although KCA figures show that imports of cement grew by 40% year-on-year to 384,000t in the second half of 2024.

The cement producers have reacted by shutting down production lines in some cases. In April 2025 local press reported that eight of the country’s 35 production lines had been shut down. Hanil Cement’s Danyang plant had reportedly suspended two of its six production lines. One additional kiln at Asia Cement’s Jecheon plant was preparing to be closed at this time, with the manager citing the difficulty of coping with a 70% capacity utilisation rate. This would have brought the site’s number of active lines down to two of four. Another unmentioned kiln also reportedly preparing to suspend operations would bring the total of inactive kilns up to 10.

As might be expected in this kind of business environment, mergers and acquisitions activity has started. Hanil Cement announced in mid-July 2025 that it was preparing to buy its subsidiary Hanil Hyundai Cement. The transaction is expected to cut costs of the newly combined company and yield other synergy effects.

With its high cement consumption per capita, the cement market in South Korea remains atypical compared to peer economies in East Asia and Europe. Consumption dropped after a peak in the 1990s but it remained high by international standards. Hence the outcry about a half-year cement output bigger than most European countries can manage in a year. The IMF predicts a gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 0.8% in 2025 in South Korea, with a faster pickup of 1.8% in 2026. Construction levels are expected to remain sluggish into autumn and start recovering in 2026. General market trends in developed countries suggest that cement consumption will fall further in South Korea in coming decades, especially as sustainability trends embed. Cement sales in Japan, for example, have gradually been dwindling since the late 1990s. One question here is whether the cement market in South Korea can continue to hold its high level of consumption per capita. It remains to be seen.

This week Aliko Dangote retired as the chair of Dangote Cement. It’s a big deal, as Dangote founded parent company Dangote Industries in 1981 as an importer of bagged cement and other commodities such as rice, sugar, flour and salt. Over 40 years later Dangote Cement is the biggest cement company in Africa with a reported capacity of 52Mt/yr, operations in at least 10 countries and annual revenues of US$2.3bn. Dangote personally has also become Africa’s richest inhabitant along the way. It’s an extraordinary achievement.

As CEO Arvind Pathak, said in the company’s half-year report, “We celebrate our president, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, who now steps down from the board, for his pivotal and transformative role in shaping the company’s growth, success, and lasting legacy. His visionary leadership, entrepreneurial spirit, and unwavering commitment laid the very foundation of our journey. Under his guidance, the company achieved remarkable milestones, expanded its footprint, and set new standards of excellence across the industry.” Dangote is aged 68 years and his successor as chair of Dangote Cement, Emmanuel Ikazoboh, is aged 76 years.

The key acquisitions started in 2000, when the company purchased a controlling stake in Benue Cement following its privatisation. Then, in 2002, it bought Obajana Cement and started up its first production line at the site by 2007. Obajana has since become the group’s largest plant in Nigeria with a production capacity of 16.3Mt/yr across four lines. The company listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange in 2010. Dangote Cement set up other plants in Nigeria and the Cement Manufacturing Association of Nigeria (CMAN) declared that the country was ‘self-sufficient’ in cement in 2012. Dangote the cement importer had become Dangote the cement producer. Then it became Dangote the cement exporter when it established its first overseas cement terminal in Ghana in 2011. Finally, it became Dangote the cement multinational when production plants outside of Nigeria started to be built in the early 2000s with units in Senegal and South Africa starting up in 2014. Today, in 2025, Dangote Cement has operations in Cameroon, Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia.

Naturally, one doesn’t build a conglomerate as large and successful as Dangote Industries without dividing opinion along the way. Issues on the cement side of the business include criticism of how Dangote managed to beat his rivals to buy government-run cement companies in the early 2000s. To be fair to Dangote though, other companies including Blue Circle and HeidelbergCement did the same thing at this time. Arguments about this issue resurfaced publicly in 2022 when the Kogi State Government took Dangote Cement to court over its ownership of the Obajana plant in relation to tax revenue.

Another issue in Nigeria in recent years has been repeated arguments about the price of cement. Despite the country becoming ‘self-sufficient’ in cement, the cost has prompted scrutiny by legislators. Meanwhile, Dangote Cement has continued to make handsome profits year after year. Outside of Nigeria, Dangote’s expansion plans haven’t always gone smoothly. Its plans to open a plant in Kenya, for example, appear to have been stymied repeatedly. Infamously, Dangote himself allegedly described Kenya as being more corrupt than Nigeria to Kenyan media. A long heralded listing on the London Stock Exchange never happened and acquisitions outside of Africa are yet to occur. Looking forward, future challenges include newer entrants into the Sub-Saharan African cement such as those from China. A sign of challenges to come include the pending acquisition of Lafarge Africa by Huaxin Cement as China continues to attempt to export its cement production ambitions.

As Aliko Dangote steps down as chair from his cement business, the potential for both his company and the continent it is based in remains high. Demographic factors favour economic growth in Africa in the 21st Century due to its growing population and need for development. This will require plenty of cement and Dangote Cement is well positioned to supply it.

And finally… some people take up gardening in their retirement. Should Dangote become bored in his retirement from the cement business though he could consider the example of the former CEO of Ireland-based CRH. It was announced last week that Albert Manifold has been appointed as the chair of oil and gas company BP. Dangote Group already operates an oil refinery. Perhaps future opportunities beckon.

Cement consumption data for the first half of 2025 from Russia has been released this week and it is down from 2024. Added to this, Cemros announced earlier in July 2025 that it is preparing to suspend production at its Belgorod cement plant. What can these and other news stories tell us about the state of the Russian cement sector at present?

Graph 1: Cement consumption in Russia, 2019 - H1 2025. Source: Soyuzcement.

Figures from Soyuzcement, the Union of Cement Producers, in the local press reports that consumption fell by 8.6% year-on-year to 27.2Mt in the first half of 2025 from 28.4Mt in the same period in 2024. By region the largest declines were noted in the south (-14%), the Urals (-13%) and in Siberia (-11%). Producer Sibcem released some production data for the first half, also this week, and this reflected the national picture, with a 9% fall.

The national situation has been blamed on a suspension of infrastructure projects, a fall in the domestic building sector and mounting imports. Imports rose by 5.8% to 1.9Mt. Notably those trade flows have been coming in from other countries with restricted access to international markets such as Belarus and Iran. A China-based company Jinyu Jidong Cement in the far-eastern Heilongjiang Province also started exporting cement to Russia in July 2025. Unusually though, for these kinds of stories, exports from Russia have also risen. They grew by 9% to 0.5Mt, mainly to Kazakhstan. The general picture fits with Soyuzcement’s updated forecast for the local market from 2025 to 2027. It expects a decline of 6 - 12% in 2025 as a whole, followed by a change of -6% to +1% in 2026 and then the start of a recovery in 2027 under most scenarios.

One reaction to the shrinking market became apparent earlier in July 2025 when Cemros said it was preparing to suspend production at its Belgorod cement plant. The company plans to use the stoppage to assess the market, reduce its operating costs and consider market diversification options. It blamed the decision on a decrease in demand in the domestic market in Russia along with lower profits and higher imports. Back in May 2025, Cemros, the leading Russia-based cement producer, said that it had 18 plants, a total production capacity of 33Mt/yr and a 31% share of the local market. It also reported that it had two mothballed plants: the Savinsky cement plant in Arkhangelsk and the Zhigulovskiye plant in the Samara region. Although, to be fair to Cemros, up until fairly recently it had been spending money on its plants. It resumed clinker production in mid-2024 when it restarted one production line at its Ulyanovsk plant in mid-2024. Then in May 2025 it said it was getting ready to restart the second line at the site too as part of a €8m renovation project. Once back online the unit will have a total production capacity of 0.8Mt/yr. Another recent plant project by Cemros was the upgrade of a kiln at Katavsky Cement that was completed in June 2025. Elsewhere, Kavkazcement was reportedly planning to invest US$224m on equipment upgrades in April 2025 in response to a large rise in production costs in 2024.

The larger problem facing the Russian construction industry and the building material producers that supply it is the ongoing economic fallout from the war in Ukraine. The head of the country’s national bank said at the start of July 2025 that the nation had broadly adapted to economic sanctions and that inflation was slowing down. Growing cement demand since 2021 broadly supports this view. Yet, governor Elvira Nabiullina warned of further market turmoil ahead due to a slowing economy and high labour costs. This spells uncertainty for the cement sector as underlined by Soyuzcement’s gloomy forecasts for 2025 and 2026. In this kind of environment market mergers and acquisitions seem likely but international sanctions may limit the options. One general remedy the government has been advocating for has been the formation of a common commodities exchange for the Eurasian Economic Union that was suggested in late 2024. However, Soyuzcement has been lobbying against the proposal on the grounds of price volatility, increased competition and a reluctance by producers to join it. The cement sector in Russia faces challenging times ahead.

Holcim Mexico has been promoting itself as the lynchpin of the group’s growth in Latin America this week. The move makes sense following the spin-off of Holcim’s North America business in late June 2025. The company says that Mexico has a housing deficit, has the highest profitability margin in Latin America and it is leading the transformation toward circular and low-carbon construction.

The bullseye on Latin America was first planted by Holcim in the group’s NextGen Growth 2030 strategy that was released in March 2025. With the company preparing to separate off its most profitable section in the US, it decided to highlight new reasons for investors to stay interested. The summary was ‘focused investment’ in attractive markets in Latin America, Europe, North Africa and Australia, sustainability-driven growth with demolition materials singled out and an emphasis on the building solutions division. Although the Latin America division supplied the smallest geographical share of new group net sales in 2024 (US$3.9bn, 19%), the profitability metric presented, recurring earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margin, gave the region the highest result. Or in other words, Holcim is telling investors that it may have divested North America but it still has business south of the Rio Grande… and it looks promising. It then said that it has the ‘best’ geographical coverage and vertical integration in the region and the largest construction materials retail franchise in the form of Disensa.

Understandably, the likes of Cemex, Cementos Argos, Votorantim and others might take exception to some of this. For example, Cemex reported net sales in excess of US$6bn in Latin America and the Caribbean, and Votorantim reported net sales of around US$4.8bn in 2024. Yet, Holcim’s claim of regional spread does carry some weight. It purchased Comacsa and Mixercon in Peru and assets from Cemex in Guatemala in 2024. At the end of the year the group owned integrated cement plants in Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico and Peru. Plus it held grinding plants in the French Antilles and Nicaragua. All of these are majority-owned subsidiaries, often also with aggregate, ready-mixed concrete and building systems businesses. Holcim may have sold up in Brazil in 2022 but it still holds a relatively intact network in Latin America.

Graph 1: Grey cement production in Mexico, 2020 - April 2025, rolling 12 months. Source: National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).

As for the market, Holcim reported modest but growing net sales in Latin America in 2024, despite lower sales volumes plus elections in Mexico, economic issues in Argentina and political instability in Ecuador. Focusing on Mexico, local cement volumes were said to be stable, aided by a recovery in bagged cement in spite of bulk sales falling on the back of fewer infrastructure projects. Holcim Mexico also spent US$55m on building a new grinding unit at its integrated Macuspana plant in Tabasco. Once complete, the update will increase the site’s capacity by 0.5Mt/yr to 1.5Mt/yr.

Cemex, the market leader in Mexico, released more direct information. It saw its sales and operating earnings fall in 2024. This was blamed on a poor second half to the year following the presidential election in June 2024. GCC’s sales fell more sharply in 2024 and this was blamed on “energy infrastructure limitations and permitting delays in Juarez.” So far in 2025, in the first quarter, the pain in Mexico for the construction sector has continued, with both Cemex and GCC noting strong falls in cement volumes and sales due to a slowdown in industrial demand. Holcim has not reported on Mexico directly so far in 2025 only saying that sales have risen in local currencies in Latin America as a whole in the first quarter. Cemex started a cost cutting exercise in February 2025 in response to the situation. Graph 1 above shows Mexican cement production. Although it should be noted that Cemex and GCC still run subsidiaries in the US. Holcim now does not. Rolling 12-month cement production figures in Mexico started falling in September 2024 and continued to do so until April 2025, the date of the latest data provided by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography.

Despite falling volumes though, the price of cement in Mexico remains high by international standards. At the start of July 2025 the National Association of Independent Businessmen (ANEI) raised the alarm that distributors had warned of an 8% price rise on the way. It’s in this environment that news stories such as Bolivia-based Empresa Pública de Cementos Bolivia (ECEBOL), a producer in a landlocked and mountainous country, preparing to export clinker to Mexico from July 2025 start to sound credible. Sales may have been down in Mexico in 2024 but earnings and margins remain high. In the medium-to-longer term the country looks even more promising, with plenty of scope for development and building products. Ditto the rest of Latin America.

One way a multinational heavy building materials company with a presence in sustainability-obsessed Europe might gain an advantage in the region is by using its knowledge to capture the easier decarbonisation routes first. This is exactly the route Holcim and Holcim Mexico seem to be taking by promoting lower carbon cement and concrete products, and by growing the recycling of demolition materials. Another option, of course, is that Holcim is bolstering its Latin America division ahead of a potential divestment. Either way, Holcim is presenting a plan for growth in its new form, shorn of North America. It’s all to play for.