Analysis

The Deputy Prime Minister of Egypt met with representatives of the cement sector last week to discuss the local market. The key topics were prices, increased production capacity and restarting suspended production lines. Then this week it was revealed that the government was preparing to issue two new cement plant licences by the end of 2025. So, what’s been happening in the local sector?

Readers may recall that the Egyptian government tackled overcapacity issues by way of cement production quotas back in 2021. This solved the immediate problems at the time but, since then, there has been a growing problem with local producers focusing on export markets to the detriment of the domestic market. For example, there was a shortage of cement reported in mid-2024 due to a shortage of trucks. Large quantities of these were being used, it transpired, to transport cement to neighbouring Libya. For more on this read Global Cement Weekly #760.

The price of cement peaked earlier in 2025. At this point the government took action by limiting cement exports to no more than 30% of a company’s production volume and by abolishing the quota system. It later reviewed the status of eight idle production lines in an effort to get them running again. Prices subsequently eased according to local media reports. Before the changes, the Cement Division of the Federation of Egyptian Industries said that the country had a production capacity of 76Mt/yr from 46 lines. Domestic consumption was estimated at 46Mt/yr and exports at 20Mt/yr giving a utilisation rate 87%. Note that this export figure is 30% of the total production of the country as a whole. For the first half of 2025, production increased by 24% year-on-year to 30.7Mt from 24Mt in the same period in 2024. Exports rose by 11.5% to 9.7Mt from 8.7Mt. However, data from Al Arabiya Business shows that exports fell by 25% in May and June 2025 following the government action. Production grew by 16%.

Vicat’s financial report for the first half of 2025 reported that export sales volumes in Egypt represented over 50% of the local subsidiary’s total sales volumes. It also noted that the domestic price surpassed the export price during the reporting period. Titan Group said that its local business had experienced an ‘impressive turnaround’ due to a construction boom in the country. It said that its plants operated at ‘high capacity’ with an alternative fuels (AF) thermal substitution rate of around 40%. It added that it was intending to expand storage capacity to support growing export volumes. By contrast, Cementir endured a tougher trading period due, in part, to less exports following technical problems related to the restart of a local production line.

A source quoted by Al Arabiya from the Export Council for Building Materials noted that there had been a ‘significant’ decline in exports to several major markets, including Libya, Lebanon, the US, Ivory Coast and Ghana. That anonymous source also warned that, if the problem with the domestic market could not be resolved quickly, then the sector risked losing export markets where reconstruction work was taking place. These comments were mirrored by Adam Khalil, a Building Materials Sector Analyst at Al Ahly Pharos Securities, who told local media this week that the anticipated reconstruction of Gaza presented benefits for Egypt-based construction and building materials companies. In particular, he noted the proximity of Sinai Cement to the Gaza Strip. Unfortunately, at the time of writing, the latest ceasefire between Gaza and Israel appears to have been breached.

The other part of the government action has been focusing on increasing AF substitution rates. At the meeting with the Deputy Prime Minister this month the stated aim was to reduce production cuts. To this end, a report on the number of waste recycling plants was reviewed and compared to the requirements of each cement plant. The government intends to set up ‘practical implementation mechanisms’ to maximise the usage of AF. Energy sources have been a particular bugbear for the cement sector in Egypt historically as the government has encouraged producers to switch fuels from time to time.

The wider economy in Egypt continues to face headwinds. Cementir, for example, in its half year report said that the country’s economy was “...being held back by high inflation, devaluation, rising energy costs, pressure on manufacturing industries and a revision of the state budget with the suspension of infrastructure projects.” However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its growth forecast for Egypt in 2025 and 2026 in mid-October 2025. The decision by the government to cap exports of cement and cut the production quota marks a serious change since 2021. It is clearly watching the situation closely. The timing from roughly in the middle of the year should make the effects clear to see in the annual reports in early 2026. We will wait until then.

This week we covered Capitol Aggregates’ order of an alternative fuels (AF) system from ATS Walter USA. The story is notable because it is an AF project for a cement plant in the US. Thermal substitution rates (TSR) of AF in the US have typically been lower than in the European Union (EU), but this could be changing.

The order was confirmed publicly at the end of September 2025. The subsidiary of ATS Group will supply a solid AF metering and conveying system to the integrated plant in San Antonio, Texas. The system will include a moving floor receiving station, chain belt conveyors, a screen and a separator, dosing equipment, an air-supported belt conveyor and an injection system. ATS Walter says that, by the end of 2026, it will have supplied four AF projects in North America. As an aside, Capitol Aggregates also mentioned in the press release that it “...views sustainability as essential to long-term success.” This sentiment is backed up by the fact that the plant built an early commercial carbon capture unit in the 2010s!

Data from the American Cement Association (ACA) revealed that the AF TSR in the US reached 16% in 2023 from 14.6% in 2022. This compares to a 58% rate in the EU in 2022. It is also worth noting that, in the US the share of gas in the cement industry energy mix rose from 25% to 31%. The ACA attributed this change to a falling price of gas. It added that the coal and petroleum share of the fuel mix fell to its lowest level since 1974. The point here is that the energy mix used by cement plants changes over time regardless of sustainability trends.

Research by LEK Consulting estimated that 60 of the 87 cement plants in the US had a TSR of below 20% in 2023. 39 of these were believed to have a TSR of under 5%. It summarised that hazardous waste and tyre-derived fuels have tended to predominate in the US compared to refuse-derived fuel (RDF) in the EU and elsewhere. LEK went on to say that its research suggested that a quarter of cement plants in the US were likely to install an AF feeding system in 2024 or 2025. This is likely to be the highest rate of AF uptake in the US cement sector to date.

The ACA reckons in its sustainability roadmap that with the right policies and regulations the country’s AF TSR could reach as high as 50%. Its policy suggestions include: reduce permitting barriers to use of so-called non-hazardous secondary materials (NHSM) fuels in industrial manufacturing; treating waste-to-industrial energy as valid recycling use; building robust recycling infrastructure and markets that incentivise the use of non-recycled material streams as industrial AF; community education and support for use of low carbon AF; and increasing the use of NHSMs to divert these materials from landfills. This can be mostly summarised as supporting the uptake of RDF through better permitting and building up the infrastructure and markets for it. LEK also identified the same issue. It called for the adoption of landfill reduction targets or zero-landfill policies by commercial and industrial waste generators. However, LEK believes that, even if this were done, current sources of high-quality RDF in the US would not be able to increase the TSR to even 20%.

News from Capitol Aggregates and others about AF projects in the US are encouraging. If LEK’s research is indicative then a step change in the TSR in the country’s cement sector is already underway. The beauty of AF usage is that it can both potentially cut fuel costs and reduce CO₂ emissions. It won’t be easy as new supply chains for refuse byproducts are built and utilised. Yet, as the ACA is advocating, it is possible and worthwhile.

The 1st CemFuels Asia Conference will take place in Bangkok in February 2026 and the 19th Global CemFuels Conference will take place in September 2026 in Geneva

Renewables reportedly generated more power than coal in the first half of 2025. Energy think tank Ember put out a report this week, which showed that solar and wind generation also grew faster than the rise in electricity demand in the first half of 2025. Global electricity demand rose by 2.6% year-on-year, adding 369TW. Solar increased by 306TW and wind by 97TW. Both coal and gas generation fell slightly, although a rise in other fossil fuel generation slowed the decline further.

Tellingly, fossil fuel generation fell in both China and India. Indeed, China added more solar and wind than the rest of the world combined, cutting its fossil fuel generation by 2% or by 58.7TWh. In India, renewables grew at the expense of fossil fuels, but demand growth was relatively low at 12TWh. In the US and the European Union (EU) fossil fuel generation actually increased. In the US, this was due to demand growth outpacing new renewable power. In the EU, weaker wind and hydroelectric output led to a greater reliance on coal and gas.

Meanwhile, a separate report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), also out this week, predicts that installed renewable power is likely to more than double by 2030 even as the sector navigates headwinds in supply chains, grid integration and financing. The IEA forecasts that global renewable power capacity will increase by 4600GW by 2030, roughly the equivalent of adding the total power generation capacity of China, the EU and combined. Solar photovoltaic (PV) will account for around 80% of the global increase in renewable power capacity over the next five years, followed by wind, hydroelectric, bioenergy and geothermal. Solar PV is expected to dominate renewables’ growth between now and 2030, remaining the lowest-cost option for new generation in most countries. Wind power, despite its near-term challenges, is still set for considerable expansion as supply bottlenecks ease and projects move forward, notably in China, Europe and India. However, the IEA’s outlook for global renewable capacity growth has been revised downward slightly compared to 2024, mainly due to policy changes in the US and in China.

This is all very well but what does it mean for the cement sector? At face value, possibly not much anytime soon. Both Ember and the IEA are talking about domestic electricity generation, not industrial. Ember reckons that half the world’s economies may have already peaked in fossil fuel power generation, but usage rates are still high. Prices of fossil fuels may even subsequently come down - to the benefit of industrial users such as cement plants. Yet, carbon taxes should, in theory, discourage increased usage - if they are working correctly.

Market distortions should not be discounted though. Some readers may recall what happened with carbon credits in the earlier stages of the EU emissions trading scheme. Free carbon allowances, calculated during the boom years of 2005 - 2007 when production was maxed out, were far too much to cover production during the resulting economic crisis. The sale of extra allowances provided many plants with a nice little earner and did little to encourage decarbonisation. Carbon capture is likely to require large amounts of electricity, but cheaper energy from renewables may help.

However, take a look at renewable energy stories in the Global Cement website news so far in 2025 and there are nearly 30 solar-related and seven wind-related ones. Cement companies are busily adding renewable capacity to reduce the cost of their electricity. This week, for example, Equator Energy commissioned a 10MW captive solar power plant at Mombasa Cement’s Vipingo plant in Kenya. Last week, Southern Province Cement in Saudi Arabia signed a 25-year solar energy power purchase agreement for its Bisha cement plant. Lest one forget, Saudi Arabia was the largest exporter of crude oil among Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members in 2023 at 6,659,000 barrels/day. If a cement plant in Saudi Arabia is investing in renewables, then one might suspect a change in the global energy mix is occurring.

Electricity accounts for around 12% of the energy demand at a cement plant. Nearly two-thirds of that demand comes from either grinding raw materials or cement. Then, as mentioned above, carbon capture is expected to increase the demand for electricity. One estimate reckons it will increase electricity consumption by 50 - 120%. Renewables are expected to bring down the price of electricity but demand will also grow.

So… expect more renewable projects linked to cement plants.

Heidelberg Materials announced this week that it had received the funding clearance to build a carbon capture and storage (CCS) unit at its Padeswood cement plant in Cymru (also known as Wales). Construction on the project will start later in 2025 with net zero cement production expected in 2029. The upgrade will be the group’s first full-scale carbon capture facility. It will capture around 0.8Mt/yr of CO₂ at the site or around 95% of the CO₂ emissions from the process. As the captured emissions will also include biogenic CO₂ from biomass fuels - including domestic food, wood and paper wastes - cement produced at the plant could potentially be net negative.

Just like Heidelberg Material’s first large-scale CCS project at the Brevik cement plant in Norway, the work at Padeswood is part of a larger government-backed decarbonisation cluster. In this case it’s the HyNet North West project. Captured CO₂ from Padeswood will be transported via an underground pipeline for storage under the seabed in Liverpool Bay. The wider cluster will also produce, transport and store hydrogen. A waste-to-energy company Encyclis also announced this week that it had also agreed terms with the government for its Protos CCS project.

It is worth noting the differences between Heidelberg Material’s first two large-scale CCS projects. Padeswood, like Brevik, will use an amine-based carbon capture system but the technology is likely to be provided by a different supplier. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) and Worley were awarded the contract for the Front End Engineering Design (FEED) phase of the project in 2024 with the intention of using MHI’s Advanced KM CDR Process. The funding model is also different for Padeswood. In Norway the original estimate was that over three-quarters of the carbon capture unit would be paid for using state aid and over two-thirds of the funding for the transport and storage of CO₂ would come from the government. Large sums of government grant funding could be seen entering Heidelberg Materials’ balance sheet in 2024 for example. By contrast, Heidelberg Materials says it has agreed a ‘contract for difference’ (CFD) with the UK government. Under the terms of this contract the cement company will provide the upfront investment to build the project and will also be responsible for any additional costs over the agreed contract price. The CFD will likely track the carbon price in the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).

The wider picture is that the UK government allocated just under €25bn in late 2024 towards two decarbonisation clusters with the funding to be made available over 25 years. However, the completion date for the Padeswood CCS of 2029 is, coincidentally, the latest year by which the next UK parliamentary election could be held. The incumbent Labour party is currently behind in the polls to the populist Reform UK party. The deputy leader of the latter said that his party would cut all "net stupid zero" policies if they entered government. It is likely that the arrangement between Heidelberg Materials and the UK government is legally binding for decades to come with provision for all sorts of eventualities. Yet readers may recall the decision by the second Trump administration in the US to cancel funding for various carbon capture projects including at least one cement project. There is also opposition from various groups in the UK to carbon capture generally and from some groups to HyNet specifically. HyNot, for example, applied for a judicial review in August 2025 challenging the government’s decision to allow Italy-based Eni to store carbon dioxide in Liverpool Bay.

Another issue is that UK cement production dropped to 7.3Mt in 2024, the lowest level since 1950. The impending carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), due in 2027, should help local producers fight off imports but if the market stays down then the production base may need to be rationalised. A cement plant with a new CCS unit linked to the government’s flagship decarbonisation cluster doesn’t seem an obvious choice for closure anytime soon though.

From here it’s all about building new carbon capture projects at different cement plants in different locations with different technologies and so on to determine what works and what doesn’t. A major part of this phase is deciding what kind of government involvement fits and trying it out over the coming years. To end, a CCS project in the north of the UK is poignant given that the Industrial Revolution started here in the late 18th Century. ‘Pob lwc’ (good luck) to all concerned!

Producers and associations in India have been praising this week’s reduction in tax on cement. On 22 September 2025 the Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate on cement was cut from 28% to 18%. Local press showed examples of 50kg bags of ordinary Portland cement (OPC) dropping in price by 8% and Portland Pozzolana Cement (PPC) dropping by 11%.

Anoop Kumar Saxena, the CEO of Vicat’s operations in India, said its subsidiaries would be, “...passing on the complete benefit of this GST reduction to our customers across both our brands - Bharathi Cement in the South and Vicat Cement in Maharashtra.” Shree Cement’s chair HM Bangur echoed these comments. Similarly, the South Indian Cement Manufacturers' Association (SICMA) described the tax cut as a “particularly impactful move.” It went on to reiterate that the move would reduce construction costs to the benefit of both private builders, public housing and infrastructure projects.

Credit rating agency ICRA’s latest report on the cement sector in India has forecast that operating profit margins are set to rise by 12 - 18% to around US$10.50/t in the 2026 financial year (FY2026). The price of cement in India increased by 7.5% year-on-year from April to August 2025. Despite the current price drop though, an increase of 3 - 5% is anticipated for FY2026 as a whole. Cement sales volumes grew by 8.5% from April to August 2025 and are projected to increase by 6 - 7% to 480 - 485Mt in FY2026. ICRA noted that input prices are expected to remain stable in FY2026. However, it warned that petcoke and freight costs are linked to global crude oil prices and are exposed to global trends. That warning from ICRA is fitting given that one of the reasons the GST has been adjusted is widely interpreted to have been in response to the 50% tariffs that the US imposed upon India at the end of August 2025. The lower GST rates are expected to boost consumption but there are worries that this will come at the expense of reduced tax income and subsequent government spending.

For those unfamiliar with India’s tax system, the GST was introduced in 2017 as a way of simplifying some of the country’s central and state taxes. Broadly, it has been viewed as a success. It should also be noted that the current changes to GST mostly further simplify the tax from four bands to two. Yet, similar to Value Added Tax (VAT) in other countries, consumption taxes can create odd situations through their complexity. Typically this ends up with arguments over the classifications of goods and services for tax purposes. For example, in the UK the company that manufactures Jaffa Cakes infamously challenged the revenue authorities in the 1990s over whether their product should be classified as a biscuit or a cake for tax purposes! As the tax lawyer Dan Neidle joked, “any sufficiently detailed VAT rule is indistinguishable from satire.”

A cut to the price of cement in the world’s second biggest cement market is big news. It may be temporary if the analysts like ICRA are correct and prices carry on mounting. Cement producers - and other businesses along the supply chain - may also decide to withhold the tax cut either now or later on. Meanwhile, factors outside of India such as global fuel prices may exert themselves. For the time being though it’s a good news story.