Analysis

Energy has been the theme for a couple of cement news stories of note from Egypt this week. The first concerns the government’s impending plan to centralise distribution of mazut (heavy fuel oil) to cement plants to help them cope with ongoing power shortages. Earlier in the week Cemex signed a deal with the Assiut Governorate to operate a second municipal solid refuse processing unit in the country. The company’s first Regenera facility, in Mahala, started operations in May 2024. Another story from mid-September 2024, along the same theme, covered the inauguration of an 18MW waste heat recovery (WHR) unit at Heidelberg Materials Egypt's Helwan Cement plant.

The wider story is that the country has faced so-called load shedding, or power rationing, since mid-2023 due to falling gas production, rising energy demand and negative currency exchange effects making it harder to buy fuel imports. The power cuts were extended in duration in July 2024 due to a heat wave. The government then said in late September 2024 that it is making investments to prevent domestic power cuts in 2025.

The cement stories mentioned above show some of the ways cement companies cut their energy costs. Two potential ways of doing this are to increase the use of alternative fuels (AF), such as municipal solid waste, or to install a WHR unit. Titan Cement, for example, reported AF thermal substitution rates of above 40% in Alexandria and above 30% in Beni Suef in the first half of 2024. The local press hasn’t reported power shortages amongst the country’s cement producers, but the plans to control the distribution of mazut suggest that either ‘something’ has happened or the government is trying to avoid ‘something.’ Readers may recall that producers have periodically faced step changes in power supplies over the years. In the mid-2010s, for example, lots of plants switched from heavy fuel oil and gas to coal. The energy price fluctuations following the start of the Russia - Ukraine war in 2022 then saw the price of coal rise.

However, what the foreign-owned producers have complained about in the first half of 2024 is the declining exchange rate of the Egyptian Pound. Cementir, Cemex and Titan Cement all noted this. However, Titan reckoned that International Monetary Fund and European Union investment had actually eased the economic situation in the first half of the year leading to an increase in the number of large construction projects.

One effect of the currency problems upon the cement market has been a focus on exports. At the start of September 2024 the Federation of Egyptian Industries said that national cement consumption in 2024 was expected to drop by 4% year-on-year to 45Mt. However, exports were projected to rise to 15Mt. The first and second most popular destinations so far in 2024 have been the Ivory Coast and Ghana. Yet, exports to Libya, the third biggest external market, may have had the biggest effect. These have been blamed for creating a shortage of trucks that was causing delays to the local construction sector. The round-journey from Egypt to Libya can take up to 12 days. This has left building sites bereft of raw material deliveries because all the trucks are elsewhere! Vicat acknowledged the growing importance of imports for its business in Egypt in its half-year report for 2024. It said that ‘sluggish’ domestic market conditions “were more than offset by growth in cement and clinker volumes for export to the Mediterranean and Africa regions.”

The wider picture of the cement sector in Egypt remains one of overcapacity with integrated capacity estimated above 70Mt/yr. The government introduced cement production quotas in mid-2021 and this stabilised prices (and profits). The recent state of the local economy may have strained this, but the latest round of external investment appears to have buoyed things for now. Although the effects of the Israeli military action in Lebanon may have unforeseen consequences upon neighbouring markets. In the meantime, cutting energy costs and growing exports offer two ways for producers to raise their profits.

CRH, formerly Cement Roadstone Holdings, announced this week that CEO Albert Manifold is retiring at the end of 2024. He will be replaced by current chief financial officer Jim Mintern in the role. Manifold will continue to work as an advisor to CRH in 2025. Manifold’s time at the head of CRH marks a decade of considerable change at the group. Crudely, CRH had a market capitalisation of US$19bn at the start of 2014 when Manifold became CEO. At the end of 2023 the group’s market capitalisation was US$50bn.

From a cement sector perspective the big events during Manifold’s tenure include CRH’s acquisition of assets around the world from the Lafarge-Holcim merger in 2015, the purchase of Ash Grove Cement in the US in 2018, the divestment of various businesses in emerging markets and the move of the company’s primary listing to the New York Stock Exchange in 2023. However, at the same time, CRH has been constantly sharpening its portfolio. So, for example, the group bought Germany-based lime and aggregates company Fels in 2017 only to later sell off its European lime business in 2023 and 2024. In the late 2010s the group sold off its US and Europe-based distribution businesses. Then, in 2022, it divested its Building Envelope business. Manifold was also the inaugural president of the Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA) when it formed in 2018.

Fairly or unfairly, CRH has given the sense over the last decade of often being ahead of the curve in following the cement markets. After it increased its portfolio when Lafarge and Holcim merged, it sold up relatively quickly in India and Brazil. Famously during an earnings call for CRH’s second quarter results in 2019, Manifold said that the group was prioritising its businesses in the developed world. CRH’s focus on the US in the late 2010s through the acquisition of Ash Grove Cement set it up well for the current strength of the cement market in North America, long before others joined the party. Another striking Manifold statement came at the company’s annual general meeting in 2023 when, in the run-up to the US listing move, he described his company as a ‘de facto’ American company.

Things that may have gone less well for Manifold on the cement side, that we know about, include CRH’s quiet attempt to divest its business in the Philippines in the late 2010s. The company wasn’t alone in trying through. Holcim publicly said that it had signed a deal to sell its local business in 2019 only to declare that it wasn’t happening the following year. Cemex is currently in the process of selling its subsidiary in the country, DMCI Holdings, but it hasn’t concluded yet. More recent acquisitions such as assets from Martin Marietta Materials in Texas in early 2024 and a majority stake in Adbri in Australia are clearly strategic and fit the definition of ‘bolt-on’ but they seem to lack the grand ambition of the earlier big deals.

Questions have also been asked about Manifold’s pay over the years. From 2016 onwards the Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS), for example, has repeatedly raised concerns about executive pay rises at CRH and recommended on occasion that shareholders reject them. Manifold became the highest paid head of an Irish public company and was reportedly the third highest paid CEO on the Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index (FTSE 100) in 2022. His response from one interview with the Irish Times newspaper in 2018 was simply: “I’m employed and paid very well to deliver shareholder returns.”

Looking back over the last decade, CRH was well placed to take advantage of the Lafarge-Holcim merger before Manifold started in 2014 but once he was in place it went for it and he led the charge. Yet, the Ash Grove Cement acquisition may prove to be the more momentous move given the current divergence of the European and North American markets. As readers may remember from the time, Summit Materials made a public counter offer but it was rebuffed. Albert Manifold was in charge of CRH and so he takes the credit. These are big shoes to fill. As Richie Boucher, the chair of CRH said in Manifold’s outgoing statement, “Under Albert’s leadership CRH has delivered superior growth and performance with consistently improving profitability, cash generation and returns.”

China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced plans last week to add the cement sector to the country’s emissions trading scheme (ETS) by the end of 2024. The ministry has started the consultation process to also add steel and aluminium production to the system. 2024 will be used as a control year for the new industries entering the scheme, an implementation phase will run in 2025 and 2026 and then the quota allocated to companies will start to be reduced from 2027 onwards. Plants that emit 26,000t/yr of CO₂ or higher will be included in the ETS.

Clearly this is a big deal for the cement industry worldwide, as China produces around half of the world’s cement. As Ian Riley the CEO of the World Cement Association commented, "The inclusion of cement in the Chinese ETS is a critical and long-awaited step. As we have seen in Europe, a well-implemented carbon ETS can be beneficial by not only curbing emissions but also catalysing industry restructuring that favours the most efficient and lowest-emitting producers. This move signals China’s intent to prioritise sustainability in high-emission sectors…” In 2023, for example, China produced 2.02Bnt of cement compared to a global output of 4.10Bnt. This compares to the 176Mt of cement produced in the European Union (EU) in 2022. The EU, of course, is the home of the world’s second largest ETS.

China’s National ETS originally started in 2021 focusing on the power generation sector. It followed several pilot markets in eight regions, which continue to operate in parallel with the national system. At present the National ETS covers more than 2000 companies with emissions exceeding that 26,000t/yr of CO₂ figure mentioned above. These are mostly generation businesses, but it does also cover captive power plants. Overall, the scheme is estimated to cover around 5Bnt/yr of CO₂ and accounts for over 40% of the countryʼs CO₂ emissions. The current targets are an 18% reduction in carbon emissions per unit of GDP compared to 2020 levels by 2025, peak CO₂ emissions by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2060. Following the addition of the cement, steel and aluminium sectors, however, the ETS is estimated to grow to 8Bnt/yr of CO₂ and it should account for 60% of the country’s CO₂ output.

In April 2024 the average spot price of emissions traded on the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange reached €12.7/t of CO₂. This was a notable milestone because in the local currency it exceeded the ‘psychological’ 100 Chinese Yuan threshold. Meanwhile, the EU ETS CO₂ price started to increase in 2021 finally making it just past Euro100/t of CO₂ in early 2023. Since then, it has declined somewhat but remains at €50-75, well above the levels of the 2010s.

In practical terms the real significance of China’s National ETS for the cement sector should begin to be felt once the government starts to tighten up the allocated quotas from 2027 onwards. It is at this point that it will become apparent how the system is being used to drive the pace of decarbonisation. The other part of this to watch is if or when domestic talk turns to setting up a version of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to stop imports. It is at this point that one might be able to tell if the ETS has ‘bite.’

The government has not been shy in regulating industry and one of its starkest tools so far in tackling overcapacity has been mandating cement plants to simply stop production for some months of the year through so-called peak shifting. The National ETS gives it another tool to drive policy changes. Yet it is more complicated and with wider implications to other industries than simply telling plants to take a break. How it fits in globally, where there is a significant difference between the ETS price in China and the EU, remains to be seen. Yet, any additional CO₂-based burden upon the cement sector in the world’s largest cement producing country is a major step towards decarbonisation.

One surprise at the end of August 2024 was that Türkiye-based Çimsa has agreed to buy a majority stake in Ireland-based Mannok. The subsidiary of Sabancı Holding signed a deal to acquire just under a 95% stake in Mannok Holdings based on an enterprise value of Euro330m for 100% of the shares. The final purchase price will be determined later in the process, as will a potential completion date subject to the usual regulatory approvals.

Çimsa has described the deal as its “third major global initiative in the past three years” following expansions in the US and Spain. Çimsa started production at its 0.3Mt/yr white cement grinding plant in Houston, Texas in 2019. It is currently planning to set-up a 0.6Mt/yr grey cement grinding plant, also in Houston, with operation expected to start by the end of 2024. Its Spain-based business received a boost in mid-2021 when it purchased the Buñol white cement plant in Valencia from Cemex. Outside of Türkiye the company also operates a few terminals in Germany and Italy. Of interest to this article it established a subsidiary for sales in the UK in mid-2023.

Mannok was previously known as Quinn Group before it was rebranded in 2020. In addition to cement the company sells a range of construction products including PIR (polyisocyanurate) insulation, aircrete thermal blocks, roof tiles and precast concrete. The company is headquartered at Derrylin in Fermanagh, Northern Ireland in the UK but it operates in both Ireland and the UK. It runs a 1.4Mt/yr integrated plant at Ballyconnell, County Cavan in Ireland, just across the border from Derrylin. With the 17th Global CemFuels Conference scheduled to take place next week in Dublin, it is worth noting that this cement plant had a recent upgrade of interest to the alternative fuels sector. In 2023 the company said that it had installed the world’s first FLSmidth Fuelflex Pyrolyzer at a cement plant following an earlier pilot of the system back in 2018. It is used to replace coal with solid recovered fuels (SRF) in the pre-calcination stage of cement production. Later in 2023 Mannok said that the equipment was reducing its CO₂ emissions by 58,000t/yr.

As reported in the October 2023 issue of Global Cement Magazine, cement from the Ballyconnell plant is sold in both Ireland and the UK. In 2022, 35% of its sales were in Ireland, 30% in Northern Ireland and the remaining 35% in the rest of the UK. The company uses a storage unit at Warrenport in Northern Ireland to despatch cement to a 8400t cement storage and distribution at Rochester in Southern England.

Çimsa said that the acquisition is intended to help it to increase the share of its revenue in foreign currencies to over 70%. It is not a revelation that Çimsa might want to do this given the parlous state of the economy in Türkiye since 2018. Interest rates are high and the Turkish Lira has lost value. Çimsa raised the issues this has caused in its 2023 annual report. These include higher costs for imported goods and services such as energy, equipment and engineering services. In 2023 the company reported that 57% of its sales consisted of foreign currency-based revenue. The same year exports represented just under 40% of the company’s total revenue. Overall, Çimsa’s revenue fell slightly year-on-year in 2023, in part due to the divestment of a cement plant and other assets, but earnings rose significantly.

Buying Mannok gives Çimsa another route into the European Union (EU), via Ireland, and the UK. Crucially, this gives its first integrated grey cement production site outside of Türkiye. Both of these things are especially useful for an export-focused company facing increasing hurdles to sales in the guise of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. It also helps the business to further hedge against negative currency exchange effects back home in Türkiye. So ‘Sláinte’ to Çimsa and Mannok, and good luck.

The 17th Global CemFuels Conference & Exhibition takes place in Dublin, Ireland on 18 - 19 September 2024

It won’t be a surprise to most readers that the Chinese cement industry continued to struggle in the first half of 2024. The China Cement Association (CCA) summarised the situation as a "continuous decline in demand, low price fluctuations and continuous losses in the industry." Cement output fell year-on-year and four of the six large cement companies featured in this article reported falls in revenue. The CCA estimated that the sector as a whole lost about US$140m in the first half of the year.

Graph 1: Cement output in China, 2019 to first half of 2024. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China shows that cement output fell by 13% to 855Mt in the first half of 2024 from 980Mt in the same period in 2023. That’s a fall of more than 100Mt and around the annual cement production capacity of the US! Analysis by the CCA reckons that the first half of 2024 saw the lowest cement production since 2011. It blamed the situation on the failure of the real estate market to stabilise and a slowdown in infrastructure investment. Geographically the areas with the biggest declines were the Northeast, Northwest and Central and South regions. Those provinces with the smallest declines were Tibet, Jiangsu, Yunnan and Hebei. However, the CCA was keen to point out that staggered production, through initiatives such as peak shifting, took place in the second quarter of 2024, the producers’ cement inventory fell and cement prices rallied somewhat in June 2024.

Graph 2: Sales revenue from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports. Note: For CNBM Basic building materials segment revenue shown only.

CNBM says that it is the largest cement producer in the world. However, Anhui Conch appears to have sold more cement and clinker than CNBM did… in the first half of 2024 at least. Anhui Conch sold 126Mt of cement and clinker, a drop of 3% year-on-year, compared to 114Mt by CNBM, a drop of 20%. Anhui Conch’s sales revenue and net profit fell by 30% to US$6.4bn and 48% to US$490m respectively. The sales revenue from CNBM’s Basic Building Materials segment, its division that manufactures cement, deceased by 31% to US$5.73bn. Tangshan Jidong and CRC reported similar situations to their larger peers with declines in revenue and profit.

Huaxin Cement and Taiwan Cement both managed to raise revenue, but this was mostly due to their businesses outside of China. Huaxin Cement increased its operating income by 3% to US$2.3bn, with sales volumes of cement falling at home but growing abroad. Indeed, its domestic operating income fell by 32% to US$716m, a similar rate of decline to the other companies featured here. By comparison, the operating income from its overseas cement business rose by 55% to US$502m. Combined with a boost in aggregate sales volumes, this helped to stabilise the company’s financial performance. Taiwan Cement, meanwhile, completed its acquisition of Cimpor Portugal in March 2024 giving it a majority stake in OYAK’s cement business in Türkiye. Subsequently, its revenue in the second quarter of 2024 shot up year-on-year.

CNBM hit the nail on the head in its half-year report when it said: “The overcapacity has not been fundamentally resolved.” China is a big country with lots of regional variation but when cement plants stopped manufacturing cement in the second quarter of 2024 the price improved. Funny that should happen! The government is slowly making adjustments to the real estate market and other mechanisms, including the China national emissions trading system, are due to be applied to cement plants soon. Yet, until that overcapacity is addressed or unless some market fundamentals change then expect to see more of the same in China in the near future.