Analysis

Cementos Artigas inaugurated an upgrade to its integrated Minas plant this week. The joint-venture between Spain-based Cementos Molins and Brazil-based Votorantim Cimentos has been working on the US$40m project since mid-2020. The main plan is to combine the functions of the integrated Minas plant in Lavalleja and the company’s cement grinding plant at Sayago in Montevideo at one site. Key parts of the upgrade included the installation of a new vertical grinding mill, a cellular silo and a bulk cement despatching centre. The Uruguayan president Luis Lacalle turned up for the opening ceremony.

The cement sector in the country is modest compared to those in its much larger neighbours, Argentina and Brazil. It only has four integrated plants with a total production capacity of around 1.4Mt/yr compared to, say, Brazil’s 70-odd plants with a capacity in excess of 85Mt/yr. However, a few things have been happening recently that are worth noting. Firstly, a new integrated plant operated by a new entrant opened in mid-2021. Cielo Azul Cementos y Calizas was set up by investors in Brazil with links to Uruguay. It started in ready-mixed concrete (RMX) in the early 2010s before it contracted FLSmidth in 2017 to build it a 0.6Mt/yr integrated cement plant at La Pacífica in Treinta y Tres. It has also opened an RMX plant in neighbouring Paraguay.

Votorantim Cimentos may have been irked by the opening of a new competitor in Uruguay as it blamed it for a drop in its third quarter revenue in 2022 in its Latin American region outside of Brazil. It described the dynamic in the country as ‘challenging.’ Its local business partner, Cementos Molins, was a bit more balanced in its assessment for 2021, reporting that earnings had falling slightly due to global input cost rises and that sales had fallen due to increased competition from new capacity. Whatever else happens, now that the Minas upgrade project has finished, it seems likely that Cementos Artigas’ costs have the potential to decrease.

The country’s third cement producer, Cementos del Plata, was also busy in 2022. The subsidiary of state-owned Administración Nacional de Combustibles, Alcohol y Portland (ANCAP) announced in September 2022 that is was going to seek a business partner in its business. Its reasoning was that it wants to restore competitiveness to the local cement market and reverse the ‘deficit’ economic situation of the last 20 years. By November 2022, 11 companies had been selected for the next stage of the process. Notable entrants include InterCement-subsidiary Loma Negra, Empresa Publica Productiva Cementos de Bolivia (ECEBOL), Cementos Artigas, Cielo Azul Cementos y Calizas and the Turkish Cement Manufacturers' Association (TürkÇimento). That last name is particularly interesting as it is the only organisation with an obvious link to the cement sector from outside of South America. Two China-based engineering companies are also among the contenders.

Prior to the current initiative to gain inward investment into Cementos del Plata, ANCAP has been noteworthy for union activity at its plants such as strikes in recent years. A reported attempt to privatise the Paysandú plant in 2020 was blocked by the unions, according to local press. In separate news, ANCAP concluded from an investigation in June 2022 that persons unknown had attempted to intentionally damage the kiln of its Minas plant through the introduction of foreign materials. There is no reason to connect the two stories but it does suggest that any investor into the business might want to consider a wide variety of stakeholders as part of any due diligence process.

Uruguay’s cement sector is changing as we have seen above. Cementos Artigas has completed an upgrade to one of its plants, Cielo Azul Cementos y Calizas built a new integrated plant in 2021 and Cementos del Plata is actively hunting for a partner. Just who that new investor might be has implications for the local sector. The Government of Uruguay announced in 2021 that it wanted to set up free trade agreements with China and Türkiye. Unsurprisingly, both Turkish and Chinese organisations are amongst the ones that have made it to the current selection stage.

The Ministry of Trade in Türkiye said this week that it was monitoring developments in the construction industry. Specifically, the ministry is reacting to complaints it has received about the high price of cement and supply issues. It has been looking at exports of clinker and cement. The statement noted that prices had risen particularly in the last one to two months and that the government was prepared to take unspecified action to alleviate the situation.

The comments hark back to the autumn of 2021 when members of the Construction Contractors Confederation (IMKON) stopped working for two weeks in response to high prices including cement. At the time the ministry tightened its rules on exporting cement and clinker. This followed the start of an investigation into alleged anti-competitive behaviour by the regulator Rekabat Kurumu into nine cement producers in the first half of that year. Around the same time Türk Çimento, the Turkish Cement Manufacturers' Association, had also been warning about growing raw material and energy costs. It noted that declining domestic sales between 2017 and 2019 had encouraged its members to focus on export markets more. All of this was overshadowed in February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and global energy prices spiked. Türk Çimento then warned of the trouble that high coal prices were causing the sector.

Graph 1: Domestic and export cement sales in Türkiye, January – September, 2017 – 2022. Source: Türk Çimento.

Graph 1 above shows that the trend towards exports that Türk Çimento pointed out in mid-2021 has continued. Domestic sales fell to a low of 33.2Mt in 2019, recovered to 2021 and dropped somewhat so far in 2022. As an aside, that decline in domestic sales from 2017 to 2019 was the first the local cement industry had experienced a fall in sales since at least 2002. Exports fell year-on-year in 2018 but have increased steadily since then to 14.6Mt in the first nine months of 2022. Exports represented 10% of total sales in 2017. So far in 2022 they have accounted for 27% of total sales. Türk Çimento’s take on the picture so far in 2022 is that it expects the domestic market to decline by 10% in 2022 in all regions of the country principally due to high commodity prices. Cement exports are expected to increase but clinker exports to decrease.

Commercially, Türkiye-based cement producers have reacted to high energy prices by upping their own product prices in turn. OYAK Çimento, for example, reported significant rises year-on-year in sales revenue and earnings in the first nine months of 2022. Net sales grew by 160% year-on-year to Euro403m and earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) increased by 202% to Euro106m. Akçansa and Çimsa reported a similar situation.

Despite the high energy costs, both investment and merger and acquisition activity has continued in the cement sector in 2022. In August 2022 Fernas Group completed its purchase of two integrated cement plants, a grinding plant and associated ready-mix concrete assets from Çimsa Çimento for US$110m. Later in the year, in November 2022, Safi Çimento acquired Sancim Bilecik Çimento’s integrated plant from Aşkale Çimento. Various upgrade projects to cement plants were also reported including projects at KÇS Kipaş Çimento’s Kahramanmaraş plant, Nuh Çimento’s Hereke cement plant, MEDCEM’s Silifke plant and OYAK Çimento’s Ünye plant.

Recent reporting by the Economist newspaper suggests that the government is targeting the domestic housing sector in response to higher than inflation price rises even compared to Türkiye’s high consumer price inflation rate. The next general election in June 2023 may also be encouraging legislators to look at the accommodation needs of their constituents. Whether this is connected to the Ministry of Trade’s recent decision is unknown. Cement producers have followed the money to lucrative export markets in recent years. How far the government is willing to intervene in this strategy could mark a change in direction for the sector.

Adani Cement’s dispute with truck driver unions in Himachal Pradesh is about to enter its fifth week. The standoff began on 15 December 2022 when the company closed its integrated plants at Darlaghat and Barmana in response to union freight rates. A third unit, a grinding plant at Nalagarh, reportedly continued to operate for a few days longer with raw materials supplied from neighbouring Punjab and Rajasthan, until the transport companies shut down its supply.

Adani Group took over the plants from Ambuja Cement and ACC following its acquisition of Holcim’s India-based businesses in September 2022. The new business seemed to be running smoothly as new officials were appointed and an alternative fuels subsidiary, Geoclean, was created. Then Adani Cement closed its two plants in Himachal Pradesh. In a statement the group said, “Our plants at Gagal (Barmana) and Darlaghat have been incurring losses for quite some time now with no signs of improvement due to stiff resistance from transportation unions ignoring the larger cause of employment generation and contribution to the state’s revenue.” The group added that it had requested the truckers reduce the freight rate to around US$0.07/t/km from US$0.14/t/km, with the lower rate previously recommended by a committee from the state’s transport department.

Himachal Pradesh held state elections in mid-November 2022 with the Indian National Congress (INC) party taking control of the state government from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The results of the poll were revealed about a week before the cement plants closed and the new administration has suffered a bumpy start to its tenure. At first the state government issued a show cause notice to the cement producer requesting that it explain the closures or else risk ‘appropriate administrative action.' Several rounds of talks followed to no avail. Most recently, a government subcommittee has been set up that will bring together representatives of Adani Cement and the truck unions to try and agree on new freight rates.

In production terms the closure of the Darlaghat and Barmana cement plants is a big deal in the state, given that they have a combined cement production capacity of 6Mt/yr from the region’s total integrated capacity of 10.5Mt/yr. Data is limited on the direct effects of the standoff on the cement and construction market so far. However, competitor UltraTech Cement may be benefiting as it was swiftly awarded the supply contract for government projects. Local press reports have also noted that some of the unions have been stopping cement trucks from entering the state.

What is clearer is the human side to the dispute. Around 1000 staff are employed both directly and indirectly at the Barmana plant and others have jobs at Darlaghat and Nalagarh. Adani Group has relocated at least 140 staff from both sites during the closures. In addition over 7000 drivers were supporting both plants. Even more people have jobs connected to the plants, their supply chains and markets.

The argument between Adani Cement and the truck driver unions in Himachal Pradesh needs to be resolved soon for the good of everybody. Rising fuel costs are the driver of this situation, although it would be interesting to know why the other cement producers in the state haven’t similarly reacted against high freight rates in the same way. India isn’t the only country where the cement sector has been affected by driver union activity. South Korea endured a series of driver strikes in the autumn of 2022 that disrupted the cement sector. Eventually the government enacted laws to restrict strikes that might cause disruption to key areas such as cement production. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that global inflation rates will stabilise in 2023 after a sharp rise in 2022. Growth rates are also predicted to slow. As societies and companies adjust to this it seems likely that there will be more clashes between companies, unions and other organisations as everybody tries to absorb higher costs.

Lafarge Cement Zimbabwe (LCZ) received an unwelcome present before Christmas when the US Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) placed the company buying it on its economic sanctions list. OFAC made its announcement on 12 December 2022. However, the cement producer said that its parent company, Associated International Cement, had concluded its sale of a 76% stake in LCZ to Fossil Mines on 6 December 2022. Local press reports that the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange halted trading in the cement company on 23 December 2022. Then, LCZ said on 29 December 2022 that the OFAC sanctions had “impacted some processes” within it. It added that it was considering various courses of action to protect the business and the interests of all stakeholders.

OFAC took action against Fossil Agro, Fossil Contracting and the group’s chief executive officer, Obey Chimuka, due to alleged links to a previously sanctioned individual, Kudakwashe Tagwirei, and his company, Sakunda Holdings. OFAC said that Tagwirei had “materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, logistical, or technical support for, or goods or services in support of, the Government of Zimbabwe.” It accused him of using his relationships with government officials to gain state contracts, to receive access to currencies, including the US Dollar, and of supplying luxury items such as cars to ministers. It added that Chimuka was a “longtime business partner” of Tagwirei. Fossil Agro was also linked to a mismanaged agricultural subsidy scheme.

When a company says it has concluded a divestment or acquisition the expectation is that everything has finished. However, LCZ has admitted that the OFAC action has caused it some problems. We’ll have to wait for more information to be released to appreciate the full extent of these ‘problems.’ However, it is worth noting that government capital controls caused delays for the handover of a new vertical cement mill ordered from China-based CBMI to LCZ in mid-2022. At the time it was reported that the cement producer still owed the supplier around US$5m but was unable to make the payment due to economic measures the government had taken to avoid depreciation of the local currency. Other potential issues could also lie in any continuing services or materials that Associated International Cement and its parent company Holcim might have agreed to supply to Fossil Mines in the future as part of the divestment deal.

Looking at LCZ’s business more generally, in its third quarter trading update it said that revenue was down by 43% year-on-year due to suppressed cement and mortar sales volumes. Yet, this was due, in part, to a roof collapse at the company’s plant in late 2021 and the commissioning and ramp-up of that new mill in the fourth quarter of 2022. So the company expects ‘significant’ recovery in its sales volumes in 2023. In a sobering aside illustrating the realities of doing business in Zimbabwe, it also mentioned that the local interest rate jumped to above 200% in July 2022! Despite all of this though, it noted that both residential and government-based infrastructure markets were driving market demand.

South Africa’s PPC reported a fall in its cement sales volumes from its subsidiary PPC Zimbabwe in the six months to September 2022 with knock-on declines to revenue and earnings. It blamed this on a planned kiln shutdown, noted the negative role of hyperinflation and forecast that volumes would improve subsequently due to ‘robust’ cement demand. It pointed out that its earnings were hit during the maintenance period because it had to import clinker from South Africa and Zambia and that this was more expensive than locally manufactured clinker. The other thing that both LCZ and PPC raised were power cuts, although LCZ reported that unscheduled outages had decreased in the third quarter of 2022.

The growing demand for cement in Zimbabwe as reported by both LCZ and PPC helps to explain how Holcim was able to finalise a deal to sell its local subsidiary in 2022. Operational and financial hurdles such as coping with hyperinflation and power cuts show the problems these companies have also faced running a business in the country. Merger and acquisition deals in the cement sector often face travails as they are proposed, negotiated, made public and then put to the scrutiny of regulators. It seems unusual though for a divestment deal to run into problems after it has seemingly been closed.

Taking a look at the most read news stories on the Global Cement website in 2022 reveals what readers have been interested in. The usual bias applies due to the prominence of countries where English is prevalent and there is a concentration on stories from earlier in the year. Yet, even with these constraints, key trends identified elsewhere emerge. Read the December 2022 issue of Global Cement Magazine for a roundup of what we think has been noteworthy.

Top 10 news stories on Global Cement website in 2022

1. Holcim receives bids for Ambuja Cements
2. JK Lakshmi Cement and TARA to launch limestone calcined clay cement production
3. Ramco Cements to commission new plant at Kurnool in February 2022
4. CalPortland to buy Redding cement plant from Martin Marietta
5. ACC launches Houses of Tomorrow in India
6. CRH exits Russian market
7. HeidelbergCement freezes investments in Russian operations
8. US facing cement shortage
9. HeidelbergCement, Holcim and Sabancı Holding are potential buyers for Sika’s US assets
10. Jaiprakash Associates seeking to sell all assets

The two large India-based acquisition and merger (M&A) stories are both present at early stages of their development. Firstly, Adani Group went on to buy Holcim’s two subsidiaries, Ambuja Cements and ACC, becoming the second largest cement producer in the country. Secondly, Jaiprakash Associates was reported to be in dire financial straits in the autumn and looking to sell off more assets. This came to pass in mid-December 2022 when Dalmia Cement (Bharat) reached a deal to buy Jaiprakash Associates’ cement assets for US$684m. Incidentally, Adani Group made the news this week when it published plans to suspend production at two of its newly acquired cement plants in Himachal Pradesh due to high freight rates. The state government responded with a court order requiring the cement producer to justify its actions that, in its view, would detrimentally affect the lives of many. While it seems unlikely that the plants will close permanently, this incident does demonstrate that Adani Group is starting to take action with its new cement business.

The other M&A story concerns cement companies buying assets outside of the standard cement, concrete and aggregates triad. Global Cement has covered this business shift increasingly since Holcim acquired Firestone Building Products in 2021. The story in 2022 that readers were interested in concerned potential buyers for Sika US, an admixture manufacturer. This one also has a sustainability angle because admixtures can be used to make cement and concrete more efficient in different ways. A more obvious example of cement production becoming more environmentally friendly was that of an India-based cement producer preparing to start production of limestone calcined clay cement (LC3). The increased production of blended cements around the world has been a big story in 2022, particularly in the US.

Cement shortages in parts of the US were a theme we picked up on a few times in 2022. Nationally it followed supply issues in the southwest in early 2021 that led Cemex to restart a mothballed kiln at a plant in Mexico with the express aim of serving the export market.

In April 2022 shortages were being reported on the other side of the country in Alabama and South Carolina. Ultimately this was blamed on labour and supply chain issues in the aftermath of the coronavirus shutdowns. The other big US story in 2022 was back in California where CalPortland agreed to buy the Redding cement plant from Martin Marietta. The subsidiary of Japan-based Taiheiyo Cement later struck a further deal to buy the Tehachapi plant, also from Martin Marietta, in August 2022. Both of these integrated plants were previously sold by Lehigh Hanson to Martin Marietta in 2021. In November 2022 Lehigh Hanson announced that its remaining integrated unit in California, the Permanente plant near Cupertino, was going to be transitioned to a distribution and quarry site.

Finally, the top news stories in 2022 where not immune to the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The big underlying narrative has been a jolt to global energy prices. What could be seen here though were the efforts of the multinational cement producers to limit their exposure to the market in Russia and any potential legal action. CRH led the exodus, although it had a relatively small business to offload. Heidelberg Materials froze its investments in its Russia-based subsidiary in March 2022. Holcim completed the divestment of its business to local management in mid-December 2022. Buzzi Unicem withdrew from any operational involvement with its subsidiary SLK Cement in May 2022.

That’s it from Global Cement Weekly for 2022. Enjoy the seasonal and New Year break if you have one.

Global Cement Weekly will return on 4 January 2023