Displaying items by tag: Nigeria

In the global cement news this week, we see that PPC (the former Pretoria Portland Cement), a large-scale domestic player in the South African cement industry, has taken it upon itself to provide association-like services to cement and concrete consumers in the country. PPC says that it felt obliged to supply information on things like quantity analysis, setting advice and product testing in the place of the now-defunct Cement and Concrete Institute (CCI).

The CCI, lambasted by PPC and other cement producers for years, was accused in April 2013 by PPC of not providing the kind of advice and services that cement producers should expect from an association. PPC, Lafarge and AfriSam all pulled funding and the CCI collapsed.

If the CCI had simply ceased to exist, PPC's new stance, putting its own cash into industry-wide assistance, might be seen as laudable. However, the CCI has been re-born as the Concrete Institute (CI), an organisation that is, by its own admission, no longer on the lookout for the interests of the whole industry. The CI is largely backed by Sephaku Cement, itself majority owned by the Nigerian cement juggernaut Dangote Cement, making PPC's stance suddenly look like one of self-preservation. Dangote is making rapid progress in the sub-Saharan cement industry and firms like PPC cannot afford to let it sweep aside the status-quo in South Africa.

The speed and scale of Dangote's rise, covered previously in this column, is huge. Nigeria's largest company now has interests in Senegal, Zambia, Tanzania, Congo, Ethiopia, Cameroon, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Ivory Coast and Liberia as well as Nigeria and South Africa. Not a month goes by without the announcement of another upgrade, plant or project. Dangote has a fantastic position in its domestic market that has enabled these new projects to be funded.

By contrast PPC is battling a stale construction market in South Africa. South African cement sales fell by 3.8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2012. To counteract this, PPC has committed to expand outside of South Africa to the tune of 40% of total production by the start of 2016. It announced in early 2013 that production is on track to come online in Rwanda, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo by the fourth quarter of 2015. Zimbabwe is expected to follow suit by the middle of 2016. It already has interests in Botswana and Mozambique.

With two of its largest home-grown cement producers both expanding rapidly outside of their domestic markets, and a relative lack of interest from the big four multinationals, the sub-Saharan cement market is set for big changes in the medium to long term. PPC and Dangote are expanding towards each other and already share many markets. Dangote has expanded more rapidly and is moving towards exports from Nigeria. PPC is catching up by taking shares in strategically-placed plants. Is sub-Sahara headed for a showdown...? Whatever happens, the future of this rapidly-growing market will certainly be interesting.

Nigeria: The Northern Cement Company of Nigeria has appointed of Alhaji Ibrahim Aminu as executive director (finance). He replaces Finn Arnoldsen. Alhaji Garba Muhammad Sarkin Kudu has been appointed as a non-executive representing Sokoto State Government on the board, replacing Alhaji Sani Garba Shuni. The appointments take immediate effect.

Alhaji Ibrahim Aminu, a chartered accountant aged 45, holds a Bachelor of Science Degree in Accounting from Ahmadu Bello University. He started his working career in 1991 with the Federal Civil Service Commission, Lagos and subsequently worked for the Nigeria Universal Bank, the Nigerian Security Printing & Minting Co, Nigerian Telecommunications Ltd and BUA Flour Mills, before joining the Cement Company of Northern Nigeria as financial director in 2010.

Alhaji Garba Muhammad Sarkin Kudu, aged 53, holds a Bachelor of Art Degree in History from Usman Dan Fodio University. He has held various roles with the Sokoto state government becoming the Permanent Secretary Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism prior to his appointment with the Cement Company of Northern Nigeria.

If you have any spare cement this week – send it to Ghana!

First, HeidelbergCement announced plans for a new cement mill on the coast at Takoradi. Then, Dangote officially started to export cement to the west African nation.

HeidelbergCement's strategy in the region is telling because it is starting to head inland. The press release on Ghana indicated that the German-based cement producer intends to expand its capacity to 4.4Mt/yr by late 2014. This follows a recent announcement that HeidelbergCement are building their first grinding plant in Burkina Faso, directly north of Ghana. Previously the producer imported cement there. Now it intends to build a US$50m plant with a production capacity of 0.65Mt/yr.

Since most of HeidelbergCement's existing infrastructure in the region is based on the coast, building a plant in a landlocked nation - Burkina Faso - is a huge vote of investor confidence in west Africa. "In particular the countries of sub-Saharan Africa have a very high growth potential due to their early stage of industrialisation and rich natural resources," said Dr Bernd Scheifele, chairman of the managing board of HeidelbergCement in the statement accompanying the Ghana expansion.

The move also provides a clue as to how competitive the cement market is becoming in territories near the coast in Africa. Currently HeidelbergCement holds a mostly coastal presence in western Africa, in Benin, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Ghana, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Togo. It has four cement plants and nine grinding plants. Its cement business made a year-on-year increase in revenue of 12% to Euro612m in 2012.

Roughly calculated, HeidelbergCement is paying US$77/t in Burkina Faso compared to US$38/t in Ghana to build its new production capacity. HeidelbergCement must be paying double for a reason.

Meanwhile, Dangote Cement announced on the same day (11 March 2013) that a fleet of cement trucks were heading to Ghana. Already the Nigerian cement producer holds a cement terminal with a bagging capacity of 1.5Mt/yr in the country. Dangote intends to start exporting 5000t/week of cement. Its eventual target is 5000t/day when the logistics are in place, or up to 1.8Mt/yr. Not a bad start in unloading Dangote's self-declared overcapacity of 20Mt/yr in Nigeria upon the neighbouring nations in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

Nigeria's Minister of Trade and Investment, Olusegun Aganga brought together warring parties from Dangote and Ibeto Cement this week to discuss their very public spat about the state of the country's cement industry.

Claims that Nigeria is facing a 'glut' of cement have been building since the Cement Manufacturing Association of Nigeria (CMAN) declared that Nigeria was 'self-sufficient' in cement in late 2012. So when leading cement importer Ibeto Cement questioned this narrative, leading cement producers Dangote and Lafarge hit back. Aganga then announced a review of the country's industry.

Despite Nigeria's potential to consume cement, something is stopping it. Yet, as Ibeto Cement rightly asked, if Nigeria is producing too much cement why isn't the price falling?

Hard facts about the Nigerian cement industry are elusive. This is what we know. Nigeria's population is apparently 170m. Its cement industry has the capacity to produce 28Mt/yr (Global Cement Directory 2013). Its production level was 18.5Mt/yr in 2012 according to CMAN. However figures compiled by the United States Geological Survey placed production much lower at 11.6Mt in 2011. Consumption is believed to be 17-20Mt/yr. In 2011 it was 17Mt. Ibete Cement, the sole importer into the country, is allowed to import up to 1.5Mt/yr.

Nigeria's main producers include Dangote (19Mt/yr capacity, 70% of the market), Lafarge WAPCO (4.6Mt/yr, 17%), Unicem (2.5Mt/yr, 9%) and Ashaka Cement (2Mt/yr, 7%).

Hype about Nigeria's potential as a cement-producing nation hinges upon its low per capita consumption (110kg) compared to some of its African neighbours and indicators of expected growth such as a housing deficit of 16 million homes.

CMAN boss Joseph Makoju addressed this head-on, blaming the high cost of haulage and energy. He said that the energy cost accounts for over 35% of the production cost and that the price of low pour fuel oil (LPFO) had risen by over 300% from US$0.16/l in 2009 to US$0.69/l in November 2012. It should be pointed out that Makoju is also the special adviser to the president of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote. Unsurprisingly he has advised the Federal Government to impose higher taxes on imported cement to discourage imports.

The production boom of recent years has been threatened by a weakening increase in demand. The gap between production and lower consumption estimates is around 1.5Mt. Dangote and Lafarge WAPCO's combined unsold stock at the end of 2012 was also just below 1.5Mt. Both figures are suspiciously close to the amount Ibeto is allowed to import annually. As usual, the easiest target is the cement importer. Dangote's political clout as a key Nigerian company, large-scale employer and all round African success-story will doubtless help its argument.

Yet if imports are really more competitive than Nigeria's domestic product how can the country possibly hope to export cement? Also this week Liberia announced it has relaxed its tariffs on cement. As luck would have it Dangote is building a new cement plant in the country. Sounds ideal for tricky import negotiations.

The outgoing chief executive of PPC (Portland Pretoria Cement) officer, Paul Stuiver, summed up the dilemma facing cement producers on the east coast of Africa. Building near the coast leaves you vulnerable to imports.

In a recent interview with the South African business weekly, 'Financial Mail', Stuiver said that imports are not a threat to African expansion, provided that a facility is not built within 200km of a port. Exactly the same issue was raised by Yves De Moor in his column in the November 2012 issue of Global Cement Magazine.

Countries along Africa's east coast receive imports, but Stuiver said that Africa's high logistics costs mean the prices increase steeply as the cement is transported inland. He commented that the markets in Mozambique and KwaZulu Natal in South Africa were especially vulnerable and that most imports to South Africa come through Durban. Unsurprisingly both of PPC's big recent investments have been in landlocked countries, Zimbabwe and Ethiopia respectively. In July 2012 it also tried to invest in CINAT, the Democratic Republic of Congo's state-owned cement producer.

The import issue to South Africa reignited last week when the South African National Regulator for Compulsory Specifications (NRCS) confirmed that it had confiscated 'sub-standard' cement imported from Vietnam. As we covered in August 2012 in this column this follows a row in July 2012 about whether cement from Pakistan's Lucky Cement was complying with South African standards.

Although standards still lead the argument, more honesty has emerged with the use of the word 'dumping' in the complaints. Stuiver explained that "...the price of cement from Pakistan, India and Vietnam is low because electricity, fuel and transport rates are subsidised." Whilst PPC can report that its revenue has risen by 9% to US$837m for the first nine months of 2012, complaints against foreign imports seem overly protective. In 2009 PPC confirmed the existence of a cartel in the country. PPC has even gone to the Advertising Standards Authority to stop imports with elephants on their bags!

With reports that Nigerian producer Dangote is building a new US$389m plant in South Africa, thoughts turn to what will happen once South Africa becomes 'self-sufficient' in cement, like Nigeria which has proudly announced this recently. Giant infrastructure projects are one way to use all that excess cement and this is what Lafarge WAPCO has been asking the Nigerian government to do recently, in a road building drive. Better transport links in South Africa would wreck Stuiver's maxim about not building near a port.

Two solutions from this week's news might appeal to the industry on the south and east coasts of Africa. The first is to use inventive export barriers just like the Bureau of Indian Standards have imposed to slow down exports from Pakistan. The second is to persuade importers to do what a North Korean ship reportedly did with its consignment of cement this week off the coast of Somalia: dump it in the sea.

"We believe that Nigeria has arrived as a cement manufacturing country," said Joseph Makoju, Chairman of the Cement Manufacturing Association of Nigeria (CMAN), to mark yet another 'moment' when Nigeria's ability to produce cement has overtaken its demand.

One of Makoju's reasons for Nigeria's 'arrival' was the fact that the Nigerian government hasn't issued any import licenses since the start of 2012.

As Global Cement Weekly #46 noted in April 2012 this is strange given that domestic consumption is up to 18Mt/yr: a figure 4Mt below modest estimates of national capacity which start at 22Mt/yr. According to Global Cement monthly price reviews the cost per bag has risen by 20% since 2010 despite presidential orders to keep it down. However much cement Nigeria seems to produce the price still keeps on rising.

The prices aren't the only figures that are rising year-on-year. Dangote, Nigeria's leading-producer, reported an increase in operating profit of 14% to US$745m in 2011 from US$654m in 2010. Lafarge WAPCO, the country's second largest producer, reported an increased operating profit of 41.7% to US$74.1m from US$52.3m.

Prices continue to rise but this could be due to cartel-like behaviour. President Goodluck Jonathan seemed to suggest as much in 2011 when he ordered prices down. Then again Nigeria's poor transport infrastructure and distribution chains could be to blame for rising prices instead. CMAN has announced plans to promote the use of concrete road construction with the government and Dangote announced plans in August 2012 to widen its distribution by opening more 'mega-depots' and signing on new distributors.

It's unclear exactly how much cement the Nigerian market actually wants. Its per capita consumption is 110kg, compared to 280kg in South Africa and over 600kg in Egypt. This is way down the consumption/GDP curve compared to Europe and North America. Its population has reportedly risen by 30m from 2006 to 2012. This implies massive total demand and demand potential.

So - past massive transport infrastructure projects, improved distribution and possible price inflation - how does Nigeria keep momentum? Ironically, given Nigeria's protectionist stance against imports, one of the measures CMAN is exploring is how to export cement to other countries. Recent news reports about local producers in Namibia and South Africa fighting foreign imports suggest that other African countries are starting to 'arrive' too. Even building the roads may not be enough to keep Nigeria's cement express-train on track.

Nigeria: This week has seen a major development in the Nigerian cement industry, with a call from domestic manufacturers to ban cement imports, three months ahead of the government's schedule for the ban. The call has been presented in some quarters as proof that the country, long blighted by high cement imports, has achieved President Goodluck Jonathan's bold target of making Nigeria a net exporter of cement before 2013. In the face of steadily diminishing oil revenues the government would like Nigeria to be known as the regional cement exporter, but what else might happen?

According to the Cement Manufacturers' Association of Nigeria (CMAN), the country's total cement capacity now stands at 22.5Mt/yr. Domestic consumption is estimated at 18.5Mt/yr, translating into a required capacity utilisation rate of 82%. It is bizarre, therefore, that cement producers feel the need to call for an import ban. Perhaps:

a) The producers know that they can't compete with the low cost of imports from outside Nigeria,

b) The producers want to recoup their plant investment costs as quickly as possible,

c) The producers know that they can't export if the country continues to import.

With notoriously poor transport links within Nigeria, option c may be a small factor. If road and rail links are poor, transport costs increase and exports become less desirable for both the supplier and the end-user. What is more likely however, is a combination of a and b. Producers need to recoup their investments but can't if China and India can undercut them from thousands of miles away. If the desire to recoup investments goes unchecked when the import ban comes in, there is a high potential for cartel-like behaviour to surface again in the country.

One does not have to look back far to the last major incident of apparent cement market cartelisation in Nigeria. In mid-2011 President Jonathan had to step in and personally call for a 25% price reduction. His target was hit within three months, but since then prices have slowly started to rise again, even with Dangote's Ibese 6Mt/yr plant coming online just three months ago! With four producers committed to setting up a 3Mt/yr plant each by 2015 in exchange for 2011 import licences, the supply of cement in Nigeria will continue to rise, making the temptation to collaborate even stronger.