The Last Word

Those helpful people at Bank of America Merrill Lynch have sent me a research note from their Global Research report services. The note examines the likely future trend in oil pricing, a trend which has consequences for the cement industry. This is what they say:

"What is in store for global oil demand in the medium term? We [BoAML] project global oil demand to grow at a cumulative 6.15 million b/d over the next five years. Global oil demand in 2016 will likely stand at 95 million b/d, relative to 85 million b/d in 2005. The developing world, which already accounts for half of the world's output, will in 2013 overtake the developed world in terms of oil consumption. By 2016 we estimate that emerging markets will comprise 53% of global oil consumption, with China alone making up 12.8% or 12 million b/d of global consumption."

Global Cement will soon open its public poll for the Top 5 Global Cement influencers in 2012, where cement industry participants will be able to vote for individuals for the awards. In the meantime, to get the ball rolling, we divulge our own suggested list of the Top 5 Global Cement influencers in 2012:

1: Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank.

Mario Draghi has the difficult job of trying to steer the ECB through the Euro crisis, Europe-wide recession, the Greek default scenario and having to deal with intransigent and politicised national leaders. Will he start to print Euros to prop up the Eurozone? Will the ECB become the lender of last resort? Will the Euro survive? The answers to these questions determine not only the economic fate of Europe and many other countries around the world, but also their cement demand. He has power, but the markets also have a say in how this story pans out...

I recently had the pleasure of being invited to the Bank of America - Merrill Lynch 'Global Research Macro Year Ahead Press Briefing' in the City of London. The heads of EMEA Research, of European Equities Strategy, International Credit Research and other high-powered banking types gave their prognoses on the prospects for the global economy in 2012. The gathering had all the joie de vivre of a wake.

Laurence Boone, the polished 'Head of Developed Europe Economics' was first to burst the bubble of positive expectations: She expects a drop in GDP for Europe as a whole of 2-3% in 2012, meaning a continuing European recession (which she said had already started in 4Q2011) that will continue through the whole of the first half of 2012. European banks will undertake 'deleveraging' (paying off debts) of around Euro1.5trillion in 2012.

After my apocalyptic forecasts for 2012 in last month's column, I thought that we should shun the real world a little and look at some theories - but theories that have definite application in everyday life.

It has struck me recently that we are all stuck in a variety of games: from the Euro debt crisis, to trying to maximise the selling price of cement, from being married to the same person for decades, to deciding to pay - or not pay - your taxes. Many of these situations can be described using 'game theory,' perhaps better termed 'interactive decision theory.' This branch of mathematics (and philosophy and biology) can suggest the optimum strategies to follow in order to maximise your outcome or the outcome of everyone in the game - the two situations not always being the same.

At the moment we are busy staring into our crystal ball, trying to work out if 2012 is going to be a good year, a mediocre year or a bad year. Let's hope that it's not another 2009 or 2010. However, I thought that it might be useful to have a look at a few possible flash points, since being forewarned is akin to being forearmed.

Iran: I've visited five times, and have lots of Iranian contacts and friends: it's a big, populous country with friendly, polite people, great food and awe-inspiring scenery, architecture, culture and history. However, the fly in the ointment is that Iran seems to be determined to build its own nuclear weapons, even though Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa forbidding the production, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons on August 9, 2005¹. Allied to its pre-stated aim to obliterate its near-neighbour Israel, this is a potentially tricky situation. (No-one seems to question the right of the US, the UK, France, China and Russia's rights - or not - to own and control nuclear weapons: India, Pakistan, North Korea and possibly Israel² all took the decision to develop them anyway, on the basis that it is very difficult to stop a sovereign nation doing what it wants to within its own borders, without invading it).