Displaying items by tag: CRH

On 6 November 2024, Donald Trump appeared before followers in Florida, US, to declare victory in the 47th US presidential election. A sea of red baseball caps reflected the promise of the former president, now once again president-elect, to Make America Great Again. What Trump’s triumph means for the cement industry is not so straightforward. One lesson of President Trump’s 2017 – 2021 tenure as 45th president is that a Trump presidency comes with winners and losers.

Alongside the international heads of state posting their congratulations to Trump via social media was the Portland Cement Association (PCA), which represents US cement producers. In a post to LinkedIn, it took the chance to set out its priorities for the upcoming presidency, set to commence on 20 January 2025. These include collaborating on ‘market‐based initiatives’ to further reduce US cement’s CO₂ emissions, addressing ‘regulatory burdens’ that currently hinder the uptake of alternative fuels (AF) and ensuring favourable policies and funding for the use of alternative cements under federal transport programmes, which are up for renewal in 2026, as well as collaborating on carbon capture, utilisation and storage.

The post was suitably diplomatic for an organisation that will have to work with the incoming administration for the next four years. Reading the policy priorities against some of Trump’s campaign promises, however, they may be more pointed. As part of his plan to stimulate economic growth, Trump has proposed an unspecified reduction of the ‘regulatory burden’ of environmental standards. He also purports to want to replace renewables with increased use of fossil fuels – in direct opposition to the PCA’s goal to slash the US cement industry’s coal and petcoke reliance from 60% to 10% by 2050. The PCA’s stance is not merely ideological: its roadmap is founded on the legally-binding Paris Agreement on climate change mitigation. Trump, who considers the Paris Agreement a ‘disaster,’ has the stated aim of withdrawing the US from the treaty – for a second time!

The PCA included a positive note that “We can all agree that the ultimate goal of our industry and the government is to best serve the American people.” In case there were any doubt as to what it feels best serves those people, it concluded that it will work with all federal officials to help communities in the US to build ‘a more resilient, sustainable’ country.

Producers themselves, in the US and many other markets, had been finalising first-half or nine-month financial results when the Trump news broke. Now came half-anticipated strategy discussions – and a surprise: in market after market, trading in cement stocks opened on the up. Ireland-based CRH’s share price spiked by 15%, before settling on a rise of 6% day-on-day. Mexico-based Cemex’s rose by 7% and Switzerland-based Holcim’s by 5%. Investors, clearly, glimpsed opportunity in uncertainty for these US-involved operators.

Trump’s campaign successfully positioned him as the disruptive outsider, despite being the known (or, at least, known-to-be-unpredictable) quantity of the two candidates. His promise to Americans was increased affordability; to corporations, deregulation. Either way, he stands to overhaul the past four years’ policy on the economy. All of this may keep Wall Street high-ballers placing their bets on Cemex or CRH, or on Holcim North America after it eventually joins them on the New York Stock Exchange. The prospect of more money in homebuyers’ pockets is attractive, especially to allied sectors like property development, where Trump himself worked for over 40 years. The cement industry, meanwhile, will be taking a hard look at what the Trump proposition might mean for its market.

US Geological Survey (USGS) data tracks a favourable market trend under the present Biden Administration – to date – for a US cement industry that has also grown in production terms. Consumption was 120Mt in 2023, up by 14% over the three-year-period from 2020, while production was 91Mt, up by 4% over the same period. President Biden has signed into law two major pieces of legislation – the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act – with a combined value of US$1.94tn in additional public spending, to President Trump’s none. However, the Republican president previously proposed investing an additional US$200bn in 2018.

Trump voters may have perused the USGS’ most recent monthly cement figures, for July 2024, before casting their votes. The figures recorded a 5.2% year-on-year decline in total cement shipments in the year-to-date, to 58.6Mt. Both Eagle Materials and Italy-based Buzzi noted a recent lack of growth in US sales volumes in their latest financial results. Another possibly alarming trend for the industry – and anyone with a protectionist mindset - is the growth of imports, which rose from 14.8Mt in 2019 to 26Mt in 2023.

A defining feature of Trump’s original presidency, alongside Covid-19 lockdown, was his still-ongoing trade wars. We can expect Trump to resume his roll-out of new tariffs as soon as he can. This might include cement plant equipment produced in other jurisdictions, such as the EU. Compared to the roster of goods he previously denied entry to the US, however, 26Mt/yr of cement will be less easy to wrangle with in a country with a domestic shortfall of 29Mt/yr.

Whatever happens in politics, the US cement sector remains very strong, with historied local ownership and some of the most innovative plants in the industry globally. Global players continue to seek to maximise their US-facing presence, as evidenced by Brazil-based Votorantim Cimentos’ contemplation of an initial public offering (IPO) for Votorantim Cimentos North America, announced on 7 November 2024. For the industry, the day-to-day grind – and pyroprocess – goes on.

After all, Trump did not enact many of his more disruptive proposals, such as building a Mexican border wall, after his win in 2016. See Global Cement’s analysis of that proposal here. But even this record is an unreliable guide for what to expect in 2025 – 2029. Not only did Trump himself win the popular mandate this time around, but his allies also gained majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate, comprising the US legislature. This betokens a different pace and scale of possible changes.

In 10 weeks’ time, the US cement sector will be lobbying an entirely new regime. Now is the time for it to prepare whatever arguments will appeal to incoming lawmakers to allow it make the best of such opportunities as may be available.

Philippines: CRH is considering selling its cement business in the Philippines. The company has engaged UBS Group to assess investors' interest in acquiring assets, with negotiations ongoing. In 2019, CRH attempted to sell its Philippines cement business for US$2 - 3bn as part of an asset portfolio optimisation, but the divestment is reportedly now worth ‘significantly’ less due to a ‘more complex’ business environment, according to AK&M Information Agency.

CRH first entered the Philippine market in 2015 by acquiring Republic Cement, the second largest cement producer in the Philippines.

Ireland: CRH reported a rise in revenue to €9.56bn in the third quarter of 2024, up by 4% year-on-year. Net income grew by 5% in the third quarter to €1.27bn. Adjusted earnings by interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose by 12% to €2.28bn.

For the first nine months of 2024, total revenues increased by 2% to €24.3bn. Year-to-date net income grew by 13% to €2.55bn, with adjusted EBITDA also up by 12% to €4.73bn. Despite adverse weather, CRH anticipates positive market dynamics to continue into 2025, projecting net income between €3.44bn and €3.5bn and adjusted EBITDA between €6.25bn and €6.34bn. ​

Romania: CRH has launched a wind farm to supply renewable electricity to its Medgidia cement plant. The wind farm comprises five turbines with a total capacity of 30MW and is expected to generate 80GWh/yr. Now fully operational, the facility can reduce the CO₂ footprint of the cement produced at the plant and contribute to reducing Romania's energy-related CO₂ emissions by 40,000t/yr.

CRH, formerly Cement Roadstone Holdings, announced this week that CEO Albert Manifold is retiring at the end of 2024. He will be replaced by current chief financial officer Jim Mintern in the role. Manifold will continue to work as an advisor to CRH in 2025. Manifold’s time at the head of CRH marks a decade of considerable change at the group. Crudely, CRH had a market capitalisation of US$19bn at the start of 2014 when Manifold became CEO. At the end of 2023 the group’s market capitalisation was US$50bn.

From a cement sector perspective the big events during Manifold’s tenure include CRH’s acquisition of assets around the world from the Lafarge-Holcim merger in 2015, the purchase of Ash Grove Cement in the US in 2018, the divestment of various businesses in emerging markets and the move of the company’s primary listing to the New York Stock Exchange in 2023. However, at the same time, CRH has been constantly sharpening its portfolio. So, for example, the group bought Germany-based lime and aggregates company Fels in 2017 only to later sell off its European lime business in 2023 and 2024. In the late 2010s the group sold off its US and Europe-based distribution businesses. Then, in 2022, it divested its Building Envelope business. Manifold was also the inaugural president of the Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA) when it formed in 2018.

Fairly or unfairly, CRH has given the sense over the last decade of often being ahead of the curve in following the cement markets. After it increased its portfolio when Lafarge and Holcim merged, it sold up relatively quickly in India and Brazil. Famously during an earnings call for CRH’s second quarter results in 2019, Manifold said that the group was prioritising its businesses in the developed world. CRH’s focus on the US in the late 2010s through the acquisition of Ash Grove Cement set it up well for the current strength of the cement market in North America, long before others joined the party. Another striking Manifold statement came at the company’s annual general meeting in 2023 when, in the run-up to the US listing move, he described his company as a ‘de facto’ American company.

Things that may have gone less well for Manifold on the cement side, that we know about, include CRH’s quiet attempt to divest its business in the Philippines in the late 2010s. The company wasn’t alone in trying through. Holcim publicly said that it had signed a deal to sell its local business in 2019 only to declare that it wasn’t happening the following year. Cemex is currently in the process of selling its subsidiary in the country, DMCI Holdings, but it hasn’t concluded yet. More recent acquisitions such as assets from Martin Marietta Materials in Texas in early 2024 and a majority stake in Adbri in Australia are clearly strategic and fit the definition of ‘bolt-on’ but they seem to lack the grand ambition of the earlier big deals.

Questions have also been asked about Manifold’s pay over the years. From 2016 onwards the Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS), for example, has repeatedly raised concerns about executive pay rises at CRH and recommended on occasion that shareholders reject them. Manifold became the highest paid head of an Irish public company and was reportedly the third highest paid CEO on the Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index (FTSE 100) in 2022. His response from one interview with the Irish Times newspaper in 2018 was simply: “I’m employed and paid very well to deliver shareholder returns.”

Looking back over the last decade, CRH was well placed to take advantage of the Lafarge-Holcim merger before Manifold started in 2014 but once he was in place it went for it and he led the charge. Yet, the Ash Grove Cement acquisition may prove to be the more momentous move given the current divergence of the European and North American markets. As readers may remember from the time, Summit Materials made a public counter offer but it was rebuffed. Albert Manifold was in charge of CRH and so he takes the credit. These are big shoes to fill. As Richie Boucher, the chair of CRH said in Manifold’s outgoing statement, “Under Albert’s leadership CRH has delivered superior growth and performance with consistently improving profitability, cash generation and returns.”

Ireland: CRH has appointed Jim Mintern as its next CEO. He will start in 2025 following the retirement of the current CEO, Albert Manifold, who plans to retire at the end of 2024. Manifold will continue as an advisor to CRH until the end of 2025.

Mintern is currently CRH’s Chief Financial Officer and has been a director of its board since mid-2021. He holds over 30 years of experience in the building materials industry and has worked for CRH for 22 years in various management positions. Mintern joined CRH in 2002 as the Finance Director for Roadstone and other postings since then have included Country Manager for Ireland, Managing Director of each of the Western and Eastern regions of the group’s Europe Materials Division and Chief of Staff to the CEO. He also led the transition of CRH’s primary listing to the New York Stock Exchange. Mintern is a graduate from University College Dublin with degrees in accounting and commerce.

Richie Boucher, the chair of CRH said “CRH has made enormous progress thanks to Albert’s clear vision and his leadership of a talented, hard-working team.” He continued, “Under Albert’s leadership CRH has delivered superior growth and performance with consistently improving profitability, cash generation and returns.”

Ukraine: The Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine (AMCU) has approved CRH Ukraine's acquisition of over 50% of the voting shares in Dyckerhoff Cement Ukraine. This move is part of a broader agreement that includes anti-competitive measures to be implemented within 24 months post-transaction. CRH Ukraine will acquire a 99.9775% stake in Dyckerhoff, with expectations for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to potentially join as an investor following a mandate signed in December 2023. 

France: Eqiom has awarded Fives FCB a contract to upgrade its cement grinding plant at Héming. The project involves integrating an FCB TSV 4000 TSF Classifier and an FCB TGT Filter with the existing milling circuit at the unit operating by the subsidiary of Ireland-based CRH. The upgrade is intended to reduce the plant’s clinker factor, improve the quality of the cements produced, offer the option of manufacturing cements with higher fineness and reduce energy consumption. The new equipment is expected to be tied-in during the plant’s annual mill shutdown in 2025, with commissioning to follow.

Europe: CRH has finalised the sale of its lime operations across Europe for US$1.1bn. The transaction concluded with the divestment of the group’s operations in Poland.

The mountainous eastern shore of the Adriatic Sea and its hinterlands in Europe’s Balkan Peninsula have one of the world’s highest densities of countries: six, across a broad equilateral triangle of 212,000km². All six states – Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia – are historically characterised by political non-alignment, carrying over from the Cold War period, and all the more notable for the presence of the EU to the north (Croatia, Hungary and Romania) and east (Bulgaria and Greece).

A nine-plant, 9Mt/yr local cement sector serves the 16.8m-strong population of the unconsolidated ‘bloc.’ Albania has 2.8Mt/yr (31%), Serbia 2.7Mt/yr (30%), Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.6Mt/yr (18%), North Macedonia 1.4Mt/yr (15%) and Kosovo 500,000t/yr (6%), while Montenegro has no cement capacity – for now. Altogether, this gives this quarter of South East Europe a capacity per capita of 539kg/yr. The industry consists entirely of companies based outside of the region. Albania’s two plants are Lebanese and Greek-owned (by Seament Holding and Titan Cement Group respectively). Titan Cement Group also controls single-plant Kosovo and North Macedonia, and competes in the Serbian cement industry alongside larger and smaller plants belonging to Switzerland-based Holcim and Ireland-based CRH, respectively. Lastly, Bosnia & Herzegovina’s capacity is shared evenly between Germany-based Heidelberg Materials and Hungary-based Talentis International Construction, with one plant each.

Lafarge Srbija, Holcim's subsidiary in Serbia, announced plans for its second plant in the country, at Ratari in Belgrade, last week. No capacity has yet emerged, but the plant will cost €110m, making something in the region of the country’s existing 0.6 – 1.2Mt/yr plants seem likely. This would give Serbia over a third of total capacity in the Central Balkans and twice the number of plants of any other country there, expanding its per-capita capacity by 22 – 44%, from a regionally low 408kg/yr to 500 – 590kg/yr.

In announcing the upcoming Ratari cement plant, Lafarge Srbija laid emphasis on its sustainability. The plant will use 1Mt/yr of ash from the adjacent Nikola Tesla B thermal power plant as a raw material in its cement production. In this way, it will help to clear the Nikola Tesla B plant’s 1600 hectare ash dumps, from which only 180,000t of ash was harvested in 2023. Circularity has been front and centre of Holcim’s discussions of its growth in Serbia for some time. When Lafarge Srbija acquired aggregates producer Teko Mining Serbia in 2022, the group indicated that the business would play a part in its development of construction and demolition materials (CDM)-based cement and concrete.

Holcim’s Strategy 2025 growth plan entails bolt-on acquisitions in ‘mature markets,’ backed by strategic divestments elsewhere. Other companies have been more explicit about a realignment towards metropolitan markets, above all in North America, at a time when they are also diversifying away from cement and into other materials. Just why a leading producer should look to build cement capacity in Serbia warrants investigation.

Serbia is the only Central Balkan member of Cembureau, the European cement association. In a European market report for 2022, the association attributed to it the continent’s fastest declining cement consumption (jointly with Slovakia), down by 11% year-on-year. Like the rest of Europe, Serbia is also gradually shrinking, its population dwindling by 0.7% year-on-year to 6.62m in 2023, which limits hopes for a longer-term recovery. Serbia remains the largest country in the Central Balkans, with 39% of the total regional population.

Several factors have compounded Serbia’s difficulties as a cement-producing country. Firstly, like the Nikola Tesla B thermal power plant, its kilns run on coal. 50% of this coal originated in Russia and Ukraine in 2021, causing the entire operation to become ‘imperilled’ after the former’s brutal invasion of the latter in February 2022, according to the Serbian Cement Industry Association. In planning terms, this was a case of putting half one’s eggs in two baskets – and dropping them both.

Secondly, Serbia’s choice of export markets is mainly confined to either the EU or global markets via the River Danube, Black Sea and Mediterranean. Either way, it is in competition with a cement exporting giant: Türkiye. Serbia sold €19.7m-worth of cement in the EU in 2023, up by 63% over the three-year period since 2020 – 31% behind Türkiye’s €28.8m (more than double its 2020 figure).¹ One other Central Balkan country had a greater reliance on the EU market: Bosnia & Herzegovina. It exported €48.4m-worth of cement there, quadruple its 2020 figure and behind only China (€133m) and the UK (€54.7) in cement exports to the bloc by value.

Bosnia & Herzegovina’s cement industry underwent a different permutation at the start of 2024: an acquisition, replacing one EU-based player with another. Lukavac Cement, which operates the 800,000t/yr Lukavac cement plant in Tuzla, changed hands from Austria-based building materials producer Asamer Baustoffe to Hungary-based property developer Talentis International Construction. Talentis International Construction belongs to one of Hungary’s major family-owned conglomerates, Mészáros Csoport.

Besides Central Europe, Balkan countries have found a ready source of investments in the past decade in China. In construction alone, Chinese investments total €13.2bn in Serbia, €2.4bn in Bosnia & Herzegovina, €915m in Montenegro and €650m in North Macedonia.² This can be a booster shot to all-important domestic cement markets, but has some risks. Montenegro previously faced bankruptcy after Export-Import Bank of China began to call in an €847m loan for construction of the still upcoming A1 motorway in the country’s Northern Region. This did not put off the Montenegrin government from signing a new memorandum of understanding (MoU) with China-based Shandong Foreign Economic and Technical Cooperation and Shandong Luqiao Group for construction of a new €54m coast road in the Coastal Region in mid-2023.

In Montenegro, UK-based private equity firm Chayton Capital is currently funding a feasibility study for a partly state-owned cement plant and building materials complex at the Pljevlja energy hub in the Northern Region. Along with an upgrade to the existing Pljevlja coal-fired power plant, the project will cost €700m.

In 2026, EU member states will begin to partly tax third-country imports of cement and other products against their specific CO₂ emissions, progressing to the implementation of a 100% Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) by 2034. Montenegro led the Central Balkans’ preparations for the EU’s CBAM roll-out with the introduction of its own emissions trading system in early 2021. Bosnia & Herzegovina will follow its example by 2026, but other countries in the region have struggled to conceive of the arrangement except as part of future EU accession agreements.

Based on the average specific CO₂ emissions of cement produced in the EU, the World Bank has forecast that exporters to the bloc will be disadvantaged if their own specific emissions exceed 5.52kg CO₂eq/€.³ By contrast, any figure below this ought to offer an increased competitive edge. Albanian cement has average emissions of 4.71kg CO₂eq/€, 15% below ‘biting point’ and 13% below Türkiye’s 5.39CO₂eq/€. Albania’s government consolidated its anticipated gains by quintupling the coal tax for 2024 to €0.15/kg. The figure is based on the International Monetary Fund’s recommended minimum CO₂ emissions tax of €55.80/t, 21% shy of the current EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) credit price of €70.49/t.⁴

The Central Balkans is a region of apparently slow markets and industry growth regardless – to 11 cement plants, following the completion of current and upcoming projects. A recurrent theme of capital expenditure investments and the way investors talk about them may help to explain this: sustainability. Looking at the mix of technologies in the current nine plants, these include wet kilns and fuels lines built for conventional fossil fuels. This is not to presume that any given plant might not be happy with its existing equipment as is. Nonetheless, the overall picture is of a set of veteran plants with scope to benefit from the kind of investments which all four global cement producers active in the region are already carrying out elsewhere in Europe. Such plans may already be in motion. In late 2023, Titan Cement Group’s North Macedonian subsidiary Cementarnica Usje secured shareholder approval to take two new loans of up to €27m combined.

As the latest news from Serbia showed, taking care of existing plants does not preclude also building new ones. The cement industry of the Central Balkans is finding its position in the new reduced-CO₂ global cement trade – one in which old and new work together.

References

1. Trend Economy, ‘European Union – Imports and Exports – Articles of cement,’ 28 January 2024, https://trendeconomy.com/data/h2/EuropeanUnion/6810#

2. American Enterprise Institute, 'China Global Investment Tracker,' 3 February 2024 https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/

3. World Bank Group, ‘Relative CBAM Exposure Index,’ 15 June 2023, https://www.worldbank.org/en/data/interactive/2023/06/15/relative-cbam-exposure-index

4. Ember, 'Carbon Price Tracker,' 26 August 2024, https://ember-climate.org/data/data-tools/carbon-price-viewer/