Displaying items by tag: Fitch

Many readers will be aware that Gautam Adani was accused of fraud by a US court this week. In a brief statement, Adani Group said that the allegations were “baseless and denied.” The indictment relates to a solar power project, but what does this mean for Adani Group’s cement businesses?

The charges by the US Department of Justice allege, following an investigation, that Gautam Adani, Sagar Adani and Vneet Jaain, executives of India-based renewable-energy company Indian Energy Company, committed “...securities and wire fraud and substantive securities fraud for their roles in a multi-billion-dollar scheme to obtain funds from US investors and global financial institutions on the basis of false and misleading statements.” A number of other individuals have also been accused, along with the two Adanis and Jaain, of participating in a US$250m bribery scheme to Indian government officials connected to a large-scale solar energy project. The indictment related to the period 2020 - 2024 and further alleges on several occasions that “Gautam Adani personally met with an Indian government official to advance the bribery scheme.” The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has also started a connected civil case.

The problem here is that the indictment has rocked the value of Adani Group’s subsidiaries and reduced the credit ratings of some of them. This in turn will make it harder for these companies to raise money in the future for expansion. Various reports in the media said that the group’s companies had lost something in the region of US$30bn as stock prices fell by around 20%. They have since rallied somewhat. And lest we forget, Adani Group has some serious expansion plans. In the cement sector, it is targeting a production capacity of 140Mt/ yr by 2028. Recent transactions include Ambuja Cement’s purchase of Penna Cement for US$1.25bn in August 2024 and a planned acquisition announced in October 2024 of a 47% stake in Orient Cement for US$451m. The group was also linked in the local media to a bid to buy Heidelberg Materials’ India-based business in October 2024.

All of this comes with a price. International credit ratings agency S&P put Adani Ports, Adani Green Energy and Adani Electricity on a downgrade warning. Then, Fitch Ratings and Moody’s followed. Moody’s, for example, downgraded its outlook for seven Adani Group companies to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’ but it affirmed ratings on them. It commented that the allegations “could have a broader credit impact on all rated Adani group issuers” and that they would “likely weaken the Adani group’s access to funding and increase its capital costs.” It added that its actions recognised “...the possibility of broader weaknesses in the governance structure across the rated Adani group entities as well as potential operational disruptions, including on their capital-spending plans, while legal proceedings are going.” The decision by the ratings agencies does not appear to have directly affected Adani Group’s cement companies, Ambuja Cements or ACC, so far. The group may get lucky here given that these companies focus on the domestic market. Thus their credit ratings may remain more buoyant, regardless of what happens next.

As with a number of other global issues at the moment, the outcome of the recent US presidential election may also play into this case. Attorney Ravi Batra told the Press Trust of India that the incoming Trump administration might view the Adani charges as so-called ‘lawfare.’ This is where legal processes are used to target a nation’s economic or other opponents. In addition the current chair of the SEC, Gary Gensler, announced his intention to step down from the role in January 2025. It seems unlikely that the Trump administration might intervene in a legal case involving a foreign company accused defrauding US citizens but the possibility of realpolitik playing a role shouldn’t be totally discounted.

This is the second major international scandal overhanging Adani Group since the disclosures by Hindenburg Research back in early 2023. Those allegations were relatively easy to shrug off given that its accuser was an investment research firm with a reputation for using its findings for short selling shares. Hindenburg Research was not a neutral bystander. This time round, the US judicial system has become involved and the consequences are bigger both reputationally and from any potential legal outcome. In the short term, the credit implications for Adani Group as a whole are becoming apparent. Various companies and countries have stalled or cancelled planned investments. However, the cement business is smaller than the group’s power and transport concerns. It also operates domestically. We’ll have to wait and see what the wider implications for Adani Group are. The first thing to watch for the cement business will be any effect on its expansion plans.

Mexico: Cemex announced that it has reached full investment grade status after being upgraded to BBB- by rating agency Fitch Ratings. This follows Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings' upgrade announced in March 2024.

Fernando González, CEO of Cemex, said "Achieving investment grade is a milestone for Cemex. This rating is confirmation of both our strategy and our execution against it.”

There was good news from the corporate finance sector for cement producers this week in the form of an approving statement by Fitch Ratings. It declared that it expected the sector to be able to pass on the costs of decarbonisation to customers due to a lack of alternatives. It recognised the challenges posed by regulators, investors and societal pressure but, even so, it suggested that cement was still an industry worth backing. Or at least for now. Added to this, it forecast that demand for building materials would grow to support the transition to a low carbon economy and to combat the damage caused by climate change. It did admit that the capital or operating costs required to decarbonise are seen as being potentially large, especially with uncertainty over how much governments will pay or incentivise. Yet the timescales involved are beyond the ratings agency’s ‘horizon’ hence no really disruptive shifts in producer economics are expected anytime soon.

This was obviously a win for the cement industry and its cheerleading associations led by the Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA), the World Cement Association and the regional associations. After all, the increasingly convergent message to the wider world has been along the lines of ‘concrete is part of the solution and you need our products because there’s nothing else.’ Good timing then for the GCCA to launch its collaboration with the World Economic Forum, the ‘Concrete Action for Climate’ (CAC) initiative. The collaborative platform is planned to help drive the industry’s journey to carbon neutral concrete by 2050 as part of the wider Mission Possible Partnership, a wider coalition of public and private organisations working on setting the heavy industry and transport sectors towards net-zero. Expect lots more of these kinds of announcements on the road to the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) taking place in Scotland in late October 2021.

Fitch Ratings did point out that societal awareness was likely to accelerate decarbonisation. The sharp end of this trend was experienced by the building materials industry this week when environmental activist group Extinction Rebellion forced operations to stop temporarily at LafargeHolcim’s Port de Javel ready-mixed concrete plant in Paris on 30 June 2021. This followed a similar incident by the same group at a LafargeHolcim subsidiary ready-mix plant in London in mid-2019. Given the share of global CO₂ emissions from the cement-concrete production chain, it is perhaps surprising that climate activists haven’t targeted clinker-producing cement plants directly in the same way that they have gone after coal-fired power stations. Clinker kilns are, after all, the source of the majority of the sector’s emissions. However, blockading a concrete plant in the city may conjure up a more potent media image than doing the same to a factory out in the country.

Instead the battles with cement plants and their quarries tend to be of a ‘not in my back yard’ (Nimby) nature. Or rather ‘not in my monastery (Nimmon?) this week, with the news that a subsidiary of YTL Cement in Malaysia is attempting to evict a group of Buddhist monks and their underground place of worship from a quarry on Mount Kanthan in Perak. In the latest twist of the long running saga, the monks have hit back with an attempt to get their portion of the site recognised as a place of worship and a heritage site. Thankfully a more positive example of how quarries can fit in with the wider community could be found this week in the guise of an archaeological dig at CRH subsidiary Tarmac’s Knobb’s Farm quarry in Cambridgeshire, UK. The discovery of a Roman Britain-era cemetery with a high proportion of decapitated bodies may have been gruesome but the relations between the operator and the archaeologists were much more harmonious. Another recent example was the discovery of what may be a new precursor species of humans, unearthed at a quarry run by Nesher-Israel Cement Enterprises site at Ramla in late June 2021.

The paradox building materials producers pose to environmental activists could be summed up by the record heat wave that hit the north-western region of North America recently. CO₂ emissions, in minor part produced by the cement and concrete industries, are the most likely reason for an increased frequency of extreme weather events such as this. Yet, infrastructure such as pavements and roads were widely reported as having buckled in the heat, principally because they weren’t built for such high temperatures. They will have to be rebuilt to withstand similar temperatures in the future. Building materials can thus be seen as both part of the problem and part of the solution. Yet with net zero targets nearly 30 years away it seems likely that continued extreme weather events and their potentially lethal consequences will speed up the public demand for decarbonisation. It is worth noting here that one of Extinction Rebellion’s demands in the UK is that the country should become net zero by 2025.

Fitch Ratings has cast its vote for now and Extinction Rebellion and its fellows are set to continue to wage their political campaigns. In the meantime it is debatable how much spiritual solace will be found by the monks of Mount Kanthan during blasting hours at the neighbouring quarry.

UK: Fitch Ratings says it does not expect the financial profiles of cement producers to be changed by decarbonisation efforts in its rating horizon. The credit rating agency expects that regulatory scrutiny, investor pressure and societal awareness are likely to accelerate the building materials sector’s decarbonisation drive. However, it predicts that producers will pass on costs to consumers as there are no substitutes for its products. In addition, demand for building materials will grow, supported by increasing needs for infrastructure to cope with the transition to a low-carbon economy and the physical effects of climate change.

It added that, since there are no low carbon solution readily available, such improvements will require ‘significant’ investment and research. Fitch Ratings expect this to arrive after 2030 to meet the tight 2050 sustainability targets by both governments and companies. The cost of this may be large especially as government incentives to support it are, as yet, uncertain.

Fitch Ratings noted that the industry had made significant progress with an 18% reduction in the global average CO₂ intensity of cement production since 1990. However, due to growing demand for cement, the sector’s gross emissions have increased by 50%. It pointed out the large role China and India have to play in emissions reductions as they are the largest concrete producers in the world. However, Europe is seen as the most demanding region for decarbonisation regulations at present.

Manoj Kumar Rustagi was on hand yesterday to discuss JSW Cement’s operations in the UAE at the Virtual Middle Eastern Cement Conference. At the event, jointly organised by Global Cement Magazine and the Arab Union for Cement and Building Materials (AUCBM), Rustagi mainly stuck to the development of the producer’s new integrated plant in the Fujairah Free Zone but he also gave an overview of JSW Cement’s presence in India. For example, as part of an industrial conglomerate, JSW Group, the cement producer benefits from links to steel production by JSW Steel that enables it to use blast furnace slag. Notably, JSW Cement’s Shiva Cement subsidiary announced plans at the end of November 2020 to spend around US$200m on a new 1.4Mt/yr integrated cement plant in Sundergarh district, Odisha with the clinker production line supplied by ThyssenKrupp Industries India.

JSW Cement is not alone in ordering new production capacity. This week, UltraTech Cement approved a planned increase of 12.87Mt/yr for around US$740m. This is in addition to new capacity projects of 6.7Mt/yr that are currently underway. All of these new projects are scheduled to be commissioned in a phased manner by the end of the 2023 Indian financial year (by March 2023). It is unclear at present how exactly these projects are distributed but they are centred in the Northern, Central and Western Zones of the country, and the new tranche includes the previously announced Pali plant in Rajasthan. At this price the inference is that the much of the new capacity will be in the form of grinding plants and/or upgrades to existing clinker lines. Around the same time as this, LafargeHolcim said it wants to spend US$112m on waste heat recovery (WHR) plants for six of its cement plants in India by the end of 2022.

Graph 1: Change in Indian cement production year-on-year (%). Source: Office of the Economic Adviser.

These three projects by major producers suggest that the Indian cement sector is recovering from the effects of the coronavirus lockdown in late March 2020. Graph 1 above shows the sector finally recovering in October 2020, with growth of 3% year-on-year to 26.9Mt. Kumar Mangalam Birla, the chairman of Aditya Birla Group, credited the economic situation with the Indian government’s Atmanirbhar Bharat stimulus program for his decision to commit to UltraTech Cement’s spending spree. This outlook gels with that of Fitch Ratings. The credit ratings agency has forecast in a recent report that ‘strong’ margins during the first half of the 2021 financial year (April – September 2020) are going to limit the financial risks to the larger Indian cement companies despite the lower cement sales volumes due to coronavirus. Pent-up demand helped the industry recover after the lockdown and this was further aided by lower energy/fuel costs and general cost cutting.

Needless to say all of the above is good news for the Indian cement industry after the year it has had. One thought to consider from all of this is who might UltraTech Cement order its mills and clinker lines from? Atmanirbhar, the name of the Indian stimulus plan, has been described as ‘self-reliance’ or ‘self-sufficiency’ in the local press. Unfortunately, relations have been poor between India and China in 2020 due to armed skirmishes along the Line of Actual Control on the border, amongst other issues. Ordering a new clinker production line from, say China-based Sinoma, may not look especially ‘self-sufficient’ in the current climate.

The proceedings pack and video from the Virtual Middle Eastern Cement Conference 2020 is availabe to buy now

India: Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has forecast a 15% year-on-year decline in domestic cement demand in the 2021 financial year, which ends on 30 March 2021 due to “weak property demand and a sluggish construction cycle.” Fitch Ratings gave the reasons for the decline as “low consumer confidence caused by business uncertainty and unemployment concerns,” causing “underlying appetites of financial institutions to lend to the construction sector to remain weak” in spite of the Reserve Bank of India’s temporary funding relief measures to the sector, which include “loan restructuring, moratoriums and relaxed lending limits.”

Fitch Ratings reported that steel demand will also fall by 10% in the 2021 financial year.

Thailand: Fitch Ratings forecasts that demand for cement will rise due to recovery in the private construction sector. It is expected to grow by over 5% in 2019, according to the Bangkok Post. Cement sales rose by 3.7% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2018, the first quarterly growth in 10 quarters. Data from the Office of Industrial Economics showed that this was followed by a rise of 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2018.

The forecast said that local cement producers were expanding regionally due to domestic oversupply and a profitability gap between domestic sales and exports. Government infrastructure projects are expected to continue to drive sales, with nearly US$100bn planned on projects from 2018 to 2026.

Indonesia: The Fitch credit rating agency says that cement sales are starting to rise due to increased investment in infrastructure projects but that overcapacity will continue to limit improvements in cement producers' profitability. Indonesian Cement Association's (ASI) data show that domestic cement sales volumes rose by 7% year-on-year in May 2017 to 5.5Mt. Sales volumes for January to May 2017 increased by 4% to 25.3Mt.

Fitch has attributed this growth to a 13% growth in sales of bulk cement, which is used mainly for infrastructure-related developments. By region, the main driver of the increase was in central Java, where toll road projects are underway and where sales rose by 17%. Demand for bagged cement, which is generally used for property developments, rose by 5% in May 2017.