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It’s been a pessimistic month for the Indian cement industry with Ministry of Commerce & Industry data showing that cement production has fallen year-on-year every month since December 2016. This was followed by the Cement Manufacturers Association (CMA) saying that the industry was sitting on 100Mt/yr of excess production capacity. Now, the credit ratings agency ICRA has followed the data and downgraded its forecast for cement demand growth to not more than 4% for the 2017 - 2018 financial year.

Graph 1: Annual cement production in India. Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

Graph 2: Monthly cement production growth rate year-on-year in India: Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

Graph 1 shows a production peak in the 2015 - 2016 financial year before falling monthly production broke the trend in the 2016 - 2017 period. Graph 2 pinpoints the month it started to go wrong, November 2016, when the government introduced its demonetisation policy. Production growth went negative the following month in December 2017 and it hasn’t managed to right itself since then and grow. It’s convenient to blame the government for the slump in production but it troughed in February 2017 before taking a lower level of decline since then.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) annual report in August 2017 suggests that the policy failed in its principal purpose of reducing the kind of corruption that a cash heavy economy can hide such as tax avoidance. People reportedly managed to find ways to bypass the bank deposit limit and may have successfully laundered large amounts of cash without being caught. However, as commentators like the Financial Times have pointed out, the longer term implications of forcing the economy towards digital payments and increasing the tax base could yet be beneficial overall.

Graph 3: Cement production capacity utilisation rates in India. Source: UltraTech Cement.

Moving on, the CMA has blamed production overcapacity for the current mess and Graph 3 shows the problem starkly. If anything the CMA appears to have downplayed the over capacity crisis facing India, as UltraTech Cement’s figures (using data from the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion) show an overcapacity of 155Mt in the 2016 – 2017 year and this will grow to a forecast 157Mt in the next financial year, even though the utilisation rate is expected to rise slightly. UltraTech Cement’s estimates don’t see the utilisation rate topping 70% until the 2020 – 2021 financial year. Analysts quoted in the Mint business newspaper concur, although they reckoned it would the rate would bounce sooner, in 2019 - 2020. Last month when the CMA moaned about the industry's excess capacity it pinned its hopes on infrastructure schemes like the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train. This prompted an official at JK Cements to say that he didn't think that one train line was going to make much of a difference.

This is one reason why ICRA’s and the other credit agencies’ growth rate forecasts for cement demand are important, because they indicate how fast India might be able to close the gap between production capcity and demand. Unfortunately demonetisation scuppered ICRA’s growth prediciton for 2016 – 2017. It forecast a rate of 6% but it actually fell by 1.2%! So downgrading its forecast for 2017 – 2018, with fears of weather and the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in the second half of the year, is ominious. Major cement producers such as Ultratech Cement and Ambuja Cement have based their road to recovery in their latest investor presentations on a 6% growth rate or higher. Pitch it lower and the gap doesn’t close. Here’s hoping for a brisk second half.

US: Douglas C Rauh has resigned as the Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Summit Materials with effect from 30 December 2017. Tom Hill, the company’s President and Chief Executive Officer, will act as Interim Chief Operating Officer while the building materials company searches for a replacement. During the recruitment period, the three Executive Vice Presidents of the company’s operating segments Tom Beck (Cement Segment), Shane Evans (West Segment) and Damian Murphy (East Segment) will report directly to Hill.

Ivory Coast: Xavier Saint-Martin-Tillet, the chief executive officer of LafargeHolcim Côte d'Ivoire has been appointed as the head of the Association of Cement Producers of Cote d'Ivoire (APCCI). His term will last two years, according to Financial Afrik. He will be assisted by Soro Nagolo, deputy general manager of the Société des Ciments d'Abidjan (SCA), who will serve as the vice-president of the association.

Saint-Martin-Tillet is a graduate of the École Centrale Paris in France. He spent 20 years working for Lafarge before joining LafargeHolcim Côte d'Ivoire in October 2016 as its managing director.

China: Cement production has fallen by 0.5% year-on-year to 1.5Bt in the first eight months of 2017. This compares to a rise of 2.5% in the same period in 2016, according to data from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). The Xinhua News Agency has also reported that the property sector stagnated in major cities due to government moves to prevent speculation.

South Africa: Prudential Investment Managers, one of the main shareholders of PPC, says it opposes a proposed merger between the cement producer and AfriSam. It said that the deal undervalues the group, according to the Business Daily newspaper. It added that it expects PPC’s share price to double in the next three to four years as production capacity in sub-Saharan African comes on line. Prudential owns a 14% share in PPC. Canada’s Fairfax Financial Holdings has made an offer of US$154m to buy a stake in PPC on condition that the cement producer agrees to a merger with AfriSam.

India: Ambuja Cement has won an auction for Nagaur's Harima Peethasar limestone block in Rajasthan following a procedural objection. JSW Group claimed that it was unable to place a counter bid in the online auction due to problems with the computer servers of Metals and Minerals Trading Corporation (MMTC), the state company running the sale, according to the DNA newspaper. After examination the claim was dismissed.

Pakistan: The number of fatalities from an explosion at the Rohri Cement Plant in mid-September 2017 has risen to seven, following the death of journalist Lal Bux Kandhro. Four people died in the initial blast whilst defusing explosives, according to the Dawn newspaper. Seven other people were severely injured in the incident, of which three have subsequently died including Kandhro.

Saudi Arabia: The Saudi Industrial Exports Company (SIEC) has signed a memorandum of understanding with Al Jouf Cement Company to export its products internationally. The Saudi government lifted a ban on exporting cement in 2016.

US: WeissLaw is investigating the proposed sale of Ash Grove Cement to Ireland’s CRH on the grounds of whether the board acted to maximise shareholder value prior to the deal. Citing an article by financial markets research company Seeking Alpha the law firm says it is exploring whether rising demand for cement due to expected government infrastructure spending, the company’s high market share in certain regions and its recent growth in operating earnings were fully taken into account when valuing the company. CRH and Ash Grove Cement announced the US$3.5bn deal in late September 2017.

US: Ireland’s CRH is close to agreeing a purchase of Suwannee American Cement from Votorantim Cimentos and Anderson Columbia. The deal is valued at US$750m, according to sources quoted by Bloomberg. However, this is an extremely high value for a single cement plant sale in the US. Suwannee American Cement operates a 1Mt/yr plant at Branford in Florida.