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Holcim Indonesia was forced to refuse to comment on rumours this week that it might be selling up. Local business press in the country was running stories that parent company LafargeHolcim was in the early stages of a possible divestment. Although the stories seemed pretty spurious, Holcim Indonesia’s share price rose on the news.

The situation is reminiscent of an anecdote attributed to the former US president Lyndon Johnson by Hunter S Thompson about making a political opponent deny a ridiculous rumour. If they don’t respond then it looks like they have something to hide and if they do engage with a denial then they look silly anyway. In Holcim Indonesia’s case, as soon as the cement producer actually refused to comment the story gained more credence.

Part of the reason why the Holcim Indonesia story has legs is because LafargeHolcim has said it plans to make divestments of Euro1.7bn in 2019. There is rampant production overcapacity in Indonesia. The territory is exactly the kind of place you might expect LafargeHolcim to consider leaving. As recently as early in 2017 Semen Indonesia, the main producer, was showing the gaping production capacity – consumption gap in its investor presentations with no catch-up until at least 2020. Romauli Panggabean, an analyst for Bank Mandiri, was even more blunt in a forecast for the Jakarta Post in mid-2016. She ran a model predicting that if production capacity doubled to 150Mt/yr by 2017 then it would take the market until 2032 to catch up with an assumed 7% construction growth rate. Panggabean’s simulation seems to massively overstate capacity growth in the country as Global Cement Directory 2018 data places integrated (clinker) plant capacity at 79.3Mt/yr. By comparison the Indonesia Cement Association (ASI) placed cement production capacity at 108Mt/yr in 2017. Both of these figures are far below 150Mt/yr.

Graph 1: Domestic and export sales in Indonesia, 2013 – 2017. Source: Indonesia Cement Association.

The graph above sets the scene for the capacity wobble worries in 2016 and 2017 as sales growth faltered. It picked up in 2017 with domestic sales rising by 7.6% year-on-year to 66.4Mt. Sales so far in 2018 support this trend, with domestic sales growing by 6.4% to 21.06Mt for January to April 2018. The other trend to note here has been the explosion in exports in recent years with a near doubling to 2.93Mt in 2017 and an accelerated continuation of this trend so far in 2018.

Holcim Indonesia operates four integrated cement plants at Narogong in West Java, Cilacap in Central Java, Tuban in East Java and Lhoknga in Aceh with a production capacity of 15Mt/yr. In addition it runs two cement grinding plants at Ciwandan in West Java and Kuala Indah in North Sumatra respectively, although this last unit is currently mothballed. It also owns cement terminals in Lampung and a new one in Palembang in Sumatra.

LafargeHolcim owns an 80% share of Holcim Indonesia, its main subsidiary in the country. In 2017 Holcim Indonesia described the local situation as one of ‘hyper competition’ due to market overcapacity. Production capacity was over 100Mt/yr but consumption was only 70Mt/yr. Its overall cement sales volumes including exports rose by 7.8% year-on-year to 11.1Mt in 2017 from 9.6Mt in 2016. But despite this its net sales fell slightly to US$953m due to falling prices as new competitors entered the market. Its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) also fell. The positioning of its production units is relevant in Indonesia given the concentration of sales in Java but the faster growth in sales rates and higher competition in other regions.

Both of the other market leaders, Semen Indonesia and Indocement, reported similar problems in 2017 but they don’t appear to be looking to make cuts. Put it all together in LafargeHolcim’s case and you have a group-level desire to sell off parts of the business, overcapacity locally with no end in sight in the short to medium term, falling earnings and profits and some hope that consumption is heading back to its normal brisk rate. All of this seems to suggest that now would be the perfect time for it to exit Indonesia if it decided to. So, if LafargeHolcim isn’t already soliciting offers then maybe it should be. The tough call would be deciding whether to leave the country altogether or to just sell a share of the business. Leaving totally would significantly reduce the group’s presence in South-East Asia and reduce its profile as a truly global player. However pride and money-making are not the same thing. In the meantime though, the only people making a fortune will be the speculators.

UK: The Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA) has appointed Benjamin Sporton as its chief executive. He will take up the role in early October 2018.

Sporton joins the GCCA from the World Coal Association where he has served as chief executive for almost four years. As chief executive of the newly-formed GCCA, Sporton will lead the association’s efforts to drive advances in sustainable construction, working to enhance the cement and concrete industry’s contribution to a variety of global social and developmental challenges.

A dual Australian-British national, Sporton joined the World Coal Association as its Policy Director in 2010 and became deputy chief executive two years later. Before his appointment as chief executive in 2014, Sporton led the World Coal Association’s strategic and business planning and was responsible for its policy and advocacy work with a particular focus on sustainable development and climate change issues. He holds an honours degree in politics from the University of Adelaide and has also studied at the University of Buenos Aires and the Australian Institute of Management.

Saudi Arabia: Mattar Alzahrani has resigned as the chief executive officer of Hail Cement. He will leave the post at the end of August 2018 to take up another position elsewhere. Ahmed Sulaiman Abdul Aziz Al Rajhi has also resigned as an independent member of the company’s board.

Canada: Sparta Manufacturing has appointed Terri Ward as Vice President of Business Development. Ward brings nearly three decades of industry experience to the role having previously worked for SSI Shredding Systems. Sparta Manufacturing is an integrated engineering and manufacturing company specialising in recycling system design and development.

US/China: The Office of the US Trade Representative has proposed placing a 10% tariff on mineral and other products from China including cement. The list includes over 600 items and it will come into force following a period for public comment in August 2018.

Mineral products affected by the proposed tariffs of interest to the cement industry include limestone flux, quicklime, slaked lime, gypsum, anhydrite, clinkers of Portland, aluminous, slag, supersulfate and similar hydraulic cements, white Portland cement, Portland cement, aluminous cement, slag cement, refractory cements, additives for cement, cement based building materials and more.

The inclusion of additional products to a tariff list follows an earlier decision by the US government to tax imports from China worth US$34bn that came into force in early July 2018.

Kazakhstan: Steppe Cement’s turnover rose by 23% year-on-year to US$30.8m in the first half of 2018 from US$25m in the same period in 2017. Its cement sales volumes rose by 14% to 0.74Mt from 0.65Mt. The company said that the cement market in Kazakhstan increased by 7% during the first half of 2018. However, overall cement shipments from local companies increased by 15%, imports rose by 30% and exports doubled to 0.9Mt from 0.45Mt. Steppe Cement's local market share increased slightly to 16% in the first half of 2018 from 15% in the same period of 2017 and it exported 12% of its sales compared with 11% in 2017. The company estimates that local cement consumption will reach 9.4Mt in 2018.

Pakistan: The Supreme Court has stopped cement producers near Katas Raj from using drinking water supplies. The order follows a ruling in May 2018 to stop the producers using water linked to a pond near to a Hindu heritage site, according to the Pakistan Today newspaper. However, the ruling was not followed. The senior judge presiding over the hearing said that local plants had been using water without paying for it.

Algeria: China Triumph International Engineering (CTIE) is set to start procuring equipment for a US$211m production line at STG Engineering and Real Estate Development’s plant at Adrar. The line will be the second production line at the site and it will have a production capacity of 4200t/day of marine cement, according to Inside International Industrials. CTIE is the engineering, procurement and construction contractor for the project and its subsidiary Beijing Triumph International Engineering will manage the engineering design work.

Namibia: Kaptau Packaging has signed a deal with Ohorongo Cement to supply 1.2 million bags by the end of August 2018. The agreement is part of a five-year deal, according to the Namibian Sun newspaper. Kaptau Packaging, a local company, manufactures bags in Oshakati.

Syria: Declassified notes from the French secret service reported upon by the Libération newspaper have revealed that the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) terrorist group made at least US$11.5m in 2014 from cement it plundered from Lafarge Syria’s Jalabiya cement plant.

In December 2014 the Directorate of Military Intelligence (DRM) reported that ISIS had taken control of an estimated US$25m worth of cement at the site. Subsequently in late December 2014 the DRM monitored a meeting between Turkish businessmen and IS representatives from the cement plant that took place at the Turkish-Syrian border. 65,000t of cement from the plant had already been sold for US$6.5m and another 50,000t was contracted to be sold for US$5m.