Displaying items by tag: GCW369

What’s long, thin and has already exported more than 20Mt of cement in 2018? The answer is Vietnam, which reported this week that it exported 20.1Mt of cement between 1 January 2018 and 31 August 2018. That’s 106 - 112% of its annual ‘target’ in just eight months and around the same amount as it claims to have exported during the whole of 2017. Total cement production in Vietnam was 63.9Mt between January and August 2018, meaning that the country has exported 31.3% of the cement it made over this period. Vietnam itself consumed ‘just’ 43.8Mt. The government target for Vietnamese cement consumption during 2018 is around 65 - 66Mt. That’s basically the amount it has already made.

From a market-led mind-set these targets seem fairly large, huge even, especially the export target. Indeed the concept of such national targets is in itself an alien concept. In most of the world, imports and exports are results of market supply and demand trends, not drivers prescribed by the government.

The reasons behind this apparent desire to export these very large volumes of cement are, therefore, probably best understood from within Vietnam, and we won’t speculate too much on them here. However, Vietnam is clearly determined to continue to produce ever more cement than it can use. In what other country could a major government-owned producer export more than 70% of the cement it makes? In the first half of 2018 Vicem did just that, shipping 11.7Mt of cement overseas from the 14.2Mt that it made.

In 2017 Vietnam’s export target was 15Mt. It ended up smashing this to the tune of 5Mt, 33% more than the target. At the current rate the sector looks like it could overshoot even more spectacularly this year, perhaps hitting as much as 30Mt of cement exports in 2018. This is more than a big European country like Germany can produce! It certainly sounds like a lot but… is it really an exceptional number?

Looking at data from World’s Top Exports (WTEx), which we advise delving into, it seems that this would be a very high number indeed. It reports that a total of 166.6Mt of cement were exported internationally in 2017. It reports that the top exporter was not, as you may by this point have been primed to suggest, Vietnam. It wasn’t even China, as the former number one was bumped into second place (12.91Mt) by Thailand (13.03Mt). Turkey was third (12.79Mt), with Japan fourth (11.93Mt) and Vietnam was listed as fifth (9.53Mt).

All of these biggest exporters except Turkey are in the Far East, an area swamped with cheap cement. China’s average export selling price according to WTEx was US$45/t, against a global average of US$55/t. Thailand undercut it by US$3/t at US$42/t, perhaps explaining its rise to the top spot. Turkey’s average export price was also US$42/t, although it is located in a region that has a lot of saturated markets and others that are growing rapidly. Its average export distance was second only to China’s. Vietnam’s average cement export price was US$51/t, higher than the others. This does not tie in with the apparent rise in exports so far in 2018. This price may have since fallen. Surprisingly, Japan had the lowest export price of the top five exporters by volume at just US$30/t in 2017.

So, to re-answer the question posed two paragraphs above, 30Mt is a very high number indeed. But you’ll have spotted the large discrepancy between WTEx’s 9.53Mt figure for Vietnam, which relies on reciprocal import partner data, and the government’s official line of 21Mt for 2017. One is tempted to ask where the other 50% of the exports reported by the Vietnamese actually ended up, especially given that WTEx reports a US$1.5bn difference in the value of exports and imports across the year. Imports were valued at US$8.8bn but exports were valued at US$10.3bn.

The mystery destination of all that cement, real or imagined, could be the topic of an entire separate column. What appears to be the case at present, is that rampant Vietnamese cement overcapacity is here to stay. The country, as well as Japan, Turkey, Thailand et. al., could stand to benefit in the short term, as China acts ever more aggressively to end its own oversupply situation. However, there could come a time when it has to take its foot off the gas. There are no signs of that yet though.

Canada: Kate Strachan has become the new plant manager of the Lafarge Exshaw plant in Alberta, the largest in Canada. She took up the position in June 2018.

Born and raised in Warrington, UK, Strachan moved to Canada with her family when she was 10 years old, following her father’s job in marine engineering. She graduated from the University of Victoria with a mechanical engineering degree in 2000 before joining Lafarge Canada’s Richmond plant in the mechanical engineering department. Over the next 12 years she moved up through the mechanical department, eventually becoming the maintenance coordinator and then production coordinator at the plant.

After holding that position for several years she was promoted to production manager for Lafarge’s Sugar Creek plant in Missouri, US, but returned to Canada in less than a year to assist with the Exshaw plant’s US$600m expansion. “The commissioning of a new plant line is a once in a lifetime opportunity, so it was something I couldn’t really pass up,” said Strachan.

After spending nearly two years as the plant’s production manager, Strachan assumed her new role as plant manager in June 2018, taking over from Jim Bachmann, who was the plant manager since 2015.

China: Wu Xu has been appointed as the chairman of Taiyuan Lionhead Cement. The 54-year old Chinese national is a graduate from the Chongqing Construction Workers College, he holds a master's degree in business administration from Chongqing University and he has attended the China Europe International Business School. From 1982 to 1991 Xu was the chief engineer of Chongqing Building Management Station and was the executive vice general manager of China Chongqing International for Economy & Technology Cooperation in the early 1990s. In 1994 he founded Sincere Group and has since been its chairman and president.

Ukraine: Vitaly Gorgoliuk has been appointed as the new chief executive officer (CEO) of Eurocement Group Ukraine. He succeeds Denis Galchev. Eurocement Group Ukraine is a subsidiary of Russia’s Eurocement Group.

Iran: Cement exports from Iran registered growth of 32% during the first four months of the country’s current fiscal year (20 March 2018 – 22 July 2018), according to the Islamic Republic’s Customs Administration data.

The country exported US$107m worth of cement during the period. The volume rose to 2.7Mt, 24% more than in the comparable period of the previous fiscal year. The country also exported 2.2Mt of clinker worth US$60m in the same period of time.

Iran exported cement to 27 countries across the world in the period, including Kuwait, Iraq, Afghanistan and Bangladesh, with exports to Oman and Kuwait growing strongly.

The latest data of the Iranian Ministry of Industries, Mining and Trade says that the country’s total cement output amounted to 13.36Mt during the same first quarter period, a year-on-year fall of 5.7%.

Algeria: Egypt’s Qalaa Holdings has announced that its subsidiary ASEC Cement is looking to exit from Algeria-based Zahana Cement Factory. ASEC holds around a 35% stake in the Algerian facility and has so far invested US$62m in the plant, taking its capacity to 0.75Mt/yr. A new 1.6Mt/yr production line is currently being constructed at the plant, with commissioning expected in early 2020.

Ukraine: Production of cement in Ukraine fell by 4.7% to 0.96Mt in July 2018 compared to the same month in 2017, according to the State Statistics Service. Production was also 6.1% less than in June 2018.

In the first seven months of 2018, cement production fell by 3.7% to 4.97Mt. Cement production was 9.31Mt for the whole of 2017.

UK: Breedon Group has reported its first half results for 2018, which showed a 16% year-on-year increase in revenue to Euro419.3m and a 3% fall in profit before tax to Euro33.7m. The group completed the acquisition of Ireland-based Lagan Group during the period under review, as well as other companies in the UK.

Peter Tom CBE, Executive Chairman, commented, “This was one of the busiest periods in the Group’s history, with four acquisitions completed by 1 July 2018, including our first outside Great Britain, coupled with continued organic investment in a number of key projects. We had anticipated a challenging 2018 and so it proved in the first half, with testing trading conditions exacerbated by the severe weather in the first quarter and rising input costs throughout the period. Despite these headwinds, we delivered a resilient performance.”

“We continue to view the medium- to long-term outlook in Great Britain positively, with infrastructure spending forecast to increase steadily over the next three years and government strategies to address our chronic housing shortage expected to fuel continued growth in the residential sector. Market conditions in Ireland are expected to be even healthier, with construction output in the Republic forecast to grow by approximately 28% in the three years to 2020 and Northern Ireland expected to sustain construction output at approximately Euro3.33bn/yr from 2018 to 2022.”

Bolivia: Transport firms in Chuquisaca in Bolivia are reported to be ‘in state of emergency’ after they decided to stop carrying cement on behalf of local producer Fancesa. The cement producer recently decided to lower the fare it pays for trips from its plant to Santa Cruz to US$1.88/bag (50kg) from US$2.18/bag, a fall of 13.7%.

Dominican Republic: Colombia’s Cementos Argos has announced that it recorded positive results in the Dominican Republic during the first half of 2018. In this period, the company saw overall revenues experience a year-on-year increase of 7%, while net profits expanded by 23%. These positive results helped the company to report a good performance in its Caribbean-Central American regional operations, which recorded earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of US$99m and revenues of US$299m in the period under review, marking increases of 3.9% and 2.6%, respectively.