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Making predictions is a mug’s game. Mug, if you don’t know already, is British slang for a fool. Although you can also drink tea or coffee out of a mug. Newspapers and magazines love predictions at this time of year and Global Cement is no exception. But before we give you our predictions, let’s see how a real expert got on 36 years ago. The science fiction author Isaac Asimov, of Three Laws of Robotics fame, had a go in 1983 when he was asked by the Toronto Star newspaper to try and guess the state of the world in 2019. You can read his original article here.

First up for a construction audience is where the great writer of fiction set in space gets it wrong: space. Asimov thought we’d be on the moon ‘in force’ by 2019, building a mining station to process minerals to make materials such as a concrete, metals, ceramics and glass. Other projects would include satellite solar farms in low earth orbit, observatories, factories and serious planning towards an off-earth settlement. ‘Mooncrete’ or ‘lunarcrete’ is definitely a theoretical thing that has received academic thought since the mid-1980s. We’re guessing that CO₂ emissions for cement and concrete would be less of a problem on the moon! Observatories and probes like the Hubble Space Telescope satellite have enriched astronomy. Factories and extra-terrestrial settlements appear another 36 years away.

As for the rest of the predictions, Asimov starts off with an immediate misstep for us smug citizens of 2019 with a riff on a potential nuclear confrontation between the US and the Soviet Union invalidating everything else he was about to say. Past this opening fumble though he’s not bad. He immediately identifies computers as the source of coming change on the scale of the industrial revolution as they enable some human jobs to be replaced and change the nature of others. Next up he identifies pollution and overpopulation as concerns for society before heading on to the importance of trans-national organisations to tackle these issues. He’s generally on trend although there are plenty of holes. For example, he doesn’t foresee networking effects such as a social media and the political implications of enhanced connectivity.

So, having seen how well a noted science fiction author got on, our first forecast is not to trust our predictions. However, if you really want to hear our thoughts, read on.

Chinese cement companies continue to build plants overseas
The background to this is that Song Zhiping, the former chairman of China National Building Material (CNBM) said in late 2017 that the company was planning to build 100 new plants in 50 countries by 2021. Lots of Chinese companies are backing projects in Central Asia and Africa. Many of these are joint ventures. The question arises as to what will happen if local investors default on their loan repayments…

Indian market heats up
Many of the major cement producers are betting on India in 2019 to hold their finances together. The Cement Manufacturers Association of India has forecast growth of 10% in the 2019 financial year to the end of March 2019, the fastest growth in the sector since it slowed down in 2011. A pledge by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to cut the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on cement to 18% from 28% can only help the market.

A tale of two Africas
By the demographics, investing in Africa should be a no-brainer for cement companies as countries develop. However, northern Africa is rapidly turning into an export market as capacity outstrips local demand. Sub-Saharan Africa is decidedly mixed as the coastal regions potentially get swamped by foreign clinker imports and capacity investments further inland can be risky. The current political instability in the Democratic Republic of Congo is one example of this. Another, the collapse of Kenya’s ARM Cement in mid-2018 offers a warning to investors of what can happen when things go wrong. Producers like Ngieria’s Dangote Cement are waiting in the wings to snap up a bargain. Expect more of the same in 2019.

Acquisitions to continue in Brazil
After years of poor performance the acquisitions and divestments in the cement industry finally started in Brazil in 2018. A new ‘pro-business’ president and a growing economy suggests that this trend should continue in 2019.

European cement producers test how fast legislators are prepared to meet climate commitments
European cement associations were warning in 2018 that the local industry faces issues balancing competiveness versus tightening climate legislation. In October 2018 three plants – two in Spain and one in Sweden – were targeted for closure proving that the associations were not kidding. More difficult choices are likely to follow in 2019.

If any readers have their own industry forecasts for 2019 let us know by emailing This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. If we get enough we’ll run a recap at the end of the year to let everyone know how they got on.

Happy New Year from Global Cement!

Saudi Arabia: Saudi Cement Company has appointed Khalid bin Abdulrahman Al-Rajhi as the chairman of the board, Mohammed bin Abdulkarim Al-Khuraiji as Vice-President of the board and Mohammed bin Ali Al-Qarni as secretary of the council.

US: Randall P Breaux has been appointed as the president of Motion Industries. He was most recently Executive Vice President of Marketing, Distribution, and Purchasing for Motion Industries, and has nearly four decades of experience in the industrial manufacturing and distribution markets.

Breaux joined Motion Industries in mid-2011 following 21 years with ABB/Baldor Electric Company, a manufacturer of industrial electric motors, drives and mechanical power transmission components, based in Fort Smith, Arkansas. He joined Baldor in 1989, and held various sales and marketing positions in the company. Just prior to joining Motion, Baldor was acquired by ABB. At that time, he was promoted to Vice President of Integration by ABB and was tasked with bringing the Baldor and ABB electric motor businesses together in North America. He served as Baldor's Vice President of Marketing from 2001 - 2011, played a key role in Baldor's acquisition of Dodge and Reliance Electric from Rockwell Automation in 2007, and served as an officer of the company for over 11 years.

Japan: Taiheiyo Cement says it has started the country’s first carbon capture and storage (CCS) test at its Fujiwara plant in Inabe, in conjunction with the Ministry of Environment. It is testing a chemical absorption method on kiln exhaust gases at the plant. Further installations on the project will continue during January 2019.

Bangladesh: Saudi Arabia’s Southern Province Cement has signed a deal with Peakward Enterprises in Hong Kong to export 1.5Mt of clinker to Bangladesh. The first shipment was scheduled to start on 31 December 2018 and they will run until the end of June 2020. No value for the contract has been disclosed.

India: Shree Cement has commissioned its 3Mt/yr integrated plant at Kodla, Kalaburagi in Karnataka state. The cement mill and the clinker line at the line were commissioned at the same time in late December 2018.

Namibia: China’s Tianjin Cement Industry Design & Research Institute (TDI) has successfully ignited the kiln on a new 1.2Mt/yr production line at Whale Rock Cement’s plant near Otjiwarongo. The Chinese equipment supplier says that the line was started on 25 December 2018, 58 days ahead of the contracted start date. The project officially began in late 2017. The US$350m plant was originally scheduled to be commissioned in late October 2018, according to local media.

Nigeria: The Cement Company of Northern Nigeria (CCNN) says it has received formal approval from the Securities Exchange Commission and the Federal High Court for its merger with Kalambaina Cement. It added that the scheme of the merger was effective from 24 December 2018. New CCNN shares have been issued to and allotted to Kalambaina Cement’s shareholders at an agreed ratio.

Russia: South Ural Mining and Processing Company has purchased a 77% stake in Gornozavodsktsement in Perm region. It intends to buy the rest of the company at a later date, according to the Kommersant newspaper. The acquisition was supported by Gazprombank.

Belarus: The Architecture and Construction Ministry has supported the country’s use of a commodity exchange to sell cement. Deputy Architecture and Construction Minister Alexander Sidorov said that his ministry was prepared to support an increase in supply to the exchange if demand allowed, according to the Belarusian Telegraph Agency (BelTA). It was previously announced that the country was planning to make 0.2Mt/yr of 10% of the country’s cement exports available to purchase via the Belarusian Universal Commodity Exchange (BUCE) from the start of 2019.