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On 6 November 2024, Donald Trump appeared before followers in Florida, US, to declare victory in the 47th US presidential election. A sea of red baseball caps reflected the promise of the former president, now once again president-elect, to Make America Great Again. What Trump’s triumph means for the cement industry is not so straightforward. One lesson of President Trump’s 2017 – 2021 tenure as 45th president is that a Trump presidency comes with winners and losers.

Alongside the international heads of state posting their congratulations to Trump via social media was the Portland Cement Association (PCA), which represents US cement producers. In a post to LinkedIn, it took the chance to set out its priorities for the upcoming presidency, set to commence on 20 January 2025. These include collaborating on ‘market‐based initiatives’ to further reduce US cement’s CO₂ emissions, addressing ‘regulatory burdens’ that currently hinder the uptake of alternative fuels (AF) and ensuring favourable policies and funding for the use of alternative cements under federal transport programmes, which are up for renewal in 2026, as well as collaborating on carbon capture, utilisation and storage.

The post was suitably diplomatic for an organisation that will have to work with the incoming administration for the next four years. Reading the policy priorities against some of Trump’s campaign promises, however, they may be more pointed. As part of his plan to stimulate economic growth, Trump has proposed an unspecified reduction of the ‘regulatory burden’ of environmental standards. He also purports to want to replace renewables with increased use of fossil fuels – in direct opposition to the PCA’s goal to slash the US cement industry’s coal and petcoke reliance from 60% to 10% by 2050. The PCA’s stance is not merely ideological: its roadmap is founded on the legally-binding Paris Agreement on climate change mitigation. Trump, who considers the Paris Agreement a ‘disaster,’ has the stated aim of withdrawing the US from the treaty – for a second time!

The PCA included a positive note that “We can all agree that the ultimate goal of our industry and the government is to best serve the American people.” In case there were any doubt as to what it feels best serves those people, it concluded that it will work with all federal officials to help communities in the US to build ‘a more resilient, sustainable’ country.

Producers themselves, in the US and many other markets, had been finalising first-half or nine-month financial results when the Trump news broke. Now came half-anticipated strategy discussions – and a surprise: in market after market, trading in cement stocks opened on the up. Ireland-based CRH’s share price spiked by 15%, before settling on a rise of 6% day-on-day. Mexico-based Cemex’s rose by 7% and Switzerland-based Holcim’s by 5%. Investors, clearly, glimpsed opportunity in uncertainty for these US-involved operators.

Trump’s campaign successfully positioned him as the disruptive outsider, despite being the known (or, at least, known-to-be-unpredictable) quantity of the two candidates. His promise to Americans was increased affordability; to corporations, deregulation. Either way, he stands to overhaul the past four years’ policy on the economy. All of this may keep Wall Street high-ballers placing their bets on Cemex or CRH, or on Holcim North America after it eventually joins them on the New York Stock Exchange. The prospect of more money in homebuyers’ pockets is attractive, especially to allied sectors like property development, where Trump himself worked for over 40 years. The cement industry, meanwhile, will be taking a hard look at what the Trump proposition might mean for its market.

US Geological Survey (USGS) data tracks a favourable market trend under the present Biden Administration – to date – for a US cement industry that has also grown in production terms. Consumption was 120Mt in 2023, up by 14% over the three-year-period from 2020, while production was 91Mt, up by 4% over the same period. President Biden has signed into law two major pieces of legislation – the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act – with a combined value of US$1.94tn in additional public spending, to President Trump’s none. However, the Republican president previously proposed investing an additional US$200bn in 2018.

Trump voters may have perused the USGS’ most recent monthly cement figures, for July 2024, before casting their votes. The figures recorded a 5.2% year-on-year decline in total cement shipments in the year-to-date, to 58.6Mt. Both Eagle Materials and Italy-based Buzzi noted a recent lack of growth in US sales volumes in their latest financial results. Another possibly alarming trend for the industry – and anyone with a protectionist mindset - is the growth of imports, which rose from 14.8Mt in 2019 to 26Mt in 2023.

A defining feature of Trump’s original presidency, alongside Covid-19 lockdown, was his still-ongoing trade wars. We can expect Trump to resume his roll-out of new tariffs as soon as he can. This might include cement plant equipment produced in other jurisdictions, such as the EU. Compared to the roster of goods he previously denied entry to the US, however, 26Mt/yr of cement will be less easy to wrangle with in a country with a domestic shortfall of 29Mt/yr.

Whatever happens in politics, the US cement sector remains very strong, with historied local ownership and some of the most innovative plants in the industry globally. Global players continue to seek to maximise their US-facing presence, as evidenced by Brazil-based Votorantim Cimentos’ contemplation of an initial public offering (IPO) for Votorantim Cimentos North America, announced on 7 November 2024. For the industry, the day-to-day grind – and pyroprocess – goes on.

After all, Trump did not enact many of his more disruptive proposals, such as building a Mexican border wall, after his win in 2016. See Global Cement’s analysis of that proposal here. But even this record is an unreliable guide for what to expect in 2025 – 2029. Not only did Trump himself win the popular mandate this time around, but his allies also gained majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate, comprising the US legislature. This betokens a different pace and scale of possible changes.

In 10 weeks’ time, the US cement sector will be lobbying an entirely new regime. Now is the time for it to prepare whatever arguments will appeal to incoming lawmakers to allow it make the best of such opportunities as may be available.

Pakistan: Fecto Cement has reappointed Aamir Ghani and Mohammed Yasin Fecto as its chair and CEO respectively. The move followed a formal revaluation of the company leadership, according to Pakistan Press International. It said that the change aims to streamline operations and reinforce the strategic direction of the cement producer. The company operates an integrated plant at Sangjani near to Islamabad.

Japan: Taiheiyo Cement has reported net sales of US$2.86bn for the six months that ended on 30 September 2024, a 5.5% increase compared to US$2.71bn a year earlier. However, the company’s operating profit for the six-month period was US$115m, a decrease of more than 50% compared to US$325m in the first six months of the prior financial year.

Japan: Sumitomo Osaka Cement has reported net sales of US708m for the six months to 30 September 2024, a decline of 0.3% compared to US$710m a year earlier. The company’s net profit slumped to US$6.1m in the six-month period from US$37.5m in the first six months of the 2023 financial year, a fall of 87.4% year-on-year.

India: Shree Cement’s profit plunged by more than 80% year-on-year to US$11.0m in the three months to 30 September 2024, weighed down by weakness in both demand and low prices. While the September quarter is seasonally weak for cement makers in India, the country's third largest producer's sales volume slipped as compared to the previous year too, falling by 7% to 7.6Mt.

Neeraj Akhoury, managing director of Shree Cement, said "Despite strong headwinds on account of an extended monsoon season and softer pricing environment across the industry, Shree Cement has delivered a steady performance on the back of accelerated operational efficiency measures, focused cost optimisation drive and product ‘premium-isation’ initiatives.” He added that the company expects an increase in demand in the remainder of the 2025 fiscal year due to the release of government budgetary allocations for national infrastructure projects.

Brazil: Votorantim Cimentos has reported that its net profit surged by 24% in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same period of 2024, to reach US$179m. Its net revenue increased by 6% year-on-year to reach US$1.33bn.

However, when excluding currency fluctuations, revenue decreased by 1%. This highlights the significant impact of foreign exchange rates on Votorantim's global operations. Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose by 20% to US386m. Cement sales volume increased by 3% to 10Mt during the quarter.

The company said that these figures indicate resilient demand across Votorantim's markets, despite challenging economic conditions in some regions. The company's diversified geographical presence has helped balance market fluctuations.

In the sustainability arena, Votorantim Cimentos also says that it has made significant progress. The company reduced its specific embodied CO₂ emissions by 4% to 556kg/t of cement in 2023. It has also increased its alternative fuel thermal substitution rate (TSR) from 26.5% in 2022 to 30.9% in 2023.

Türkiye: Çimsa will invest US$31.8m in an expansion to its calcium aluminate cement production facilities at its Mersin Cement subsidiary. The upgrade will reportedly be completed by the end of the first half of 2026.

Tunisia: Société les Ciments de Bizerte’s local sales fell by 77.43% in the third quarter of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023, to US$1.7m in 2024. This decrease is due to the total cessation of clinker production during this period. Similarly, the total turnover of Société Les Ciments de Bizerte fell in the third quarter of 2024 due to the domestic sales situation and a total absence of exports. As a result of the company’s ongoing financial crisis, it has not been able to meet its commitments to suppliers or its bank debts.

The company made just 16,796t of cement during the third quarter of 2024, 75,020t less than in the same period of 2023 when it produced 91,816t.

Germany: Heidelberg Materials has started the Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) Study phase on the GeZero project at its Milke plant in Geseke. The technical planning phase is being conducted by Fluor Corporation. It will focus on the design and integration of the various systems into the overall technical concept, which also includes a CO₂ transport solution. The technical planning is expected to be completed in mid-2025 with construction scheduled to start in 2026.

Christian Knell, CEO of Heidelberg Materials Germany, said “With GeZero, Heidelberg Materials will rely on CO₂ capture using state-of-the-art oxyfuel technology in combination with a CO₂ cleaning and liquefaction plant. To pave the way for domestic CCS plants, a CO₂ transport solution by rail is part of the planning until the necessary pipeline infrastructure is available. In addition, a local CO2 storage hub is to be created as interim storage. The electrical energy requirement for the operation of the plant is to be covered exclusively by renewable energies. A new photovoltaic system in the vicinity of the factory premises will help to meet the needs.”

The GeZero project is preparing to build a carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) value chain for the Geseke cement plant, North Rhine-Westphalia, in inland Germany. It aims to capture 0.7Mt/yr of CO₂ starting from 2029. The project is supported by the European Union Innovation Fund.

Kenya: East African Portland Cement (EAPC) has contracted a technical audit from Denmark-based FLSmidth Cement with a value of just under US$70m. EAPC’s acting managing director Mohamed Osman said the findings would guide a pending plant upgrade, to be funded by some of the proceeds from the land sale, according to the Star newspaper. It hopes to double capacity at the unit by the late 2020s without incurring debt. The cement producer is also considering its options to use alternative fuels such as macadamia husks and other agricultural biomass. The 10-week audit process is expected to end in early December 2024.

Osman said “We have tapped FLSmidth to undertake a comprehensive technical audit of the plant, which will assess how to maximise the capacity and inform the design and cost of a new one,'' Osman said. “The audit by FLSmidth will also look at the reserves of raw materials that it has and inform whether it needs to acquire more land that has adequate reserves.”