Displaying items by tag: ICRA
Update on India in 2019
04 December 2019The National Council for Cement and Building Materials (NCB) International Seminar is running this week in New Delhi and this gives us a good opportunity to take a snapshot at the world’s second largest cement industry.
Data from the Ministry of Commerce & Industry shows comfortable cement production growth of 4.4% year-on-year to 255Mt in the first nine months of 2019. As graph 1 shows there was higher production growth in 2018 but this followed a decline in 2017, due to partly to the government’s demonetisation policy. October 2019 confirms a trend of falling year-on-year growth from August 2019 onwards following a peak growth rate in mid-2017.
Graph 1: Indian cement production in the first nine months of the year, 2015 – 2019. Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry.
Graph 2: Year-on-year change in monthly Indian cement production, 2017 – October 2019. Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry.
Analysts like ICRA have blamed the growth slowdown on the general election in mid-2019 and then the monsoon rains. By region in the six months from April to September 2019 it noted a slowdown in demand due to slowing government projects in northern, eastern and central areas. Labour concerns were reported in the north, centre and Gujarat in the west. Raw material shortages were picked up on such as water in Maharashtra and sand in the east and Andhra Pradesh. Positive growth was reported in Kerala, driven by post-flood reconstruction and low-cost housing schemes, and in Karnataka due to general construction activity. Broadly, UltraTech Cement, the country’s largest cement producer, in its November 2019 investor’s presentation, agreed with this assessment. It noted growth in the northern region and declines elsewhere. Like ICRA it too picked up on low cost housing declaring it to be a ‘key cement consumption driver.’
Away from the figures the main news stories have been continued consolidation such as the auction for Emami Cement and UltraTech Cement’s acquisition of Century Textiles and Industries. The sale of the former for plants in east and central regions has been linked to all the major local producers, including those owned by LafargeHolcim and HeidelbergCement. A report in the Hindu newspaper last week quoted a source placing UltraTech Cement and Nirma Group as the frontrunners with a valuation of around US$700m and an announcement at some point in December 2019. Despite UltraTech Cement’s market dominance nationally, its 17% production share in the east is low compared to its presence elsewhere. Nirma Group’s subsidiary Nuvoco Vistas is one of the smaller producers but, notably, it picked up Lafarge India’s assets in 2016.
Investment in new production capacity has continued with announcements from both JSW Cement and HeidelbergCement in recent weeks about expansion plans well into the mid-2020s. This follows planned projects from Dalmia Bharat Cement and Ramco Cement as well as orders from the JK Cement and Shree Cement. This ties into the capacity growth forecasts of around 120Mt over a similar timescale that the analysts were predicting in the middle of 2019. JM Financial, for example, pinned most of this growth on the south followed by the east and north. However, The India Cements said in November 2019 that it was delaying its expansion projects in Uttar Pradesh due to slowing government spending.
As is usual for a country with a low per capita cement consumption, on the national scale, one of the tensions in the Indian cement industry has been the balance between the capacity utilisation rate and the commissioning of new capacity. Its utilisation rate was below 60% in 2018 and a number of producers started reporting the negative effects of higher input and raw materials costs on their financial results. Knowing when to stop and start capacity growth is critical in this kind of environment. Specifically in India’s case curveballs such as government action on pollution and the country’s growing need for imports of coal as well as a burgeoning waste fuels sector are factors to keep an eye on. Finally, general trends such as UltraTech Cement’s focus on the Indian market, despite buying assets outside the country, are also compelling to watch as it chooses to concentrate on just one country. There are parallels here with other similarly-sized multinational that have also been focusing on core markets elsewhere in the globe.
India: Credit rating agency ICRA expects that cement demand growth will fall to 7% year-on-year in the first quarter of the 2019 – 2020 financial year from 13% in the previous year. It has blamed this on a slowdown in infrastructure projects due to the general election and resulting labour shortages. However, higher cement prices and lower input costs - including power, fuel and distribution expenses – are forecast to improve profits. Cement consumption is predicted to increase in the third quarter due to housing demand and pickup in infrastructure schemes.
The agency also said that around 18 – 20Mt/yr of cement production capacity would be added in the 2019 – 2020 year. This will be from a variety of integrated and grinding projects. This is below the projected demand growth of 24Mt/yr but overall sector production overcapacity is expected to continue at around 71%.
India: Credit rating agency ICRA has said that the demand for cement in India is likely to grow by around 6% in the current financial year, which ends on 31 March 2019. In its latest report on the sector, it said this would be due to a pick-up in the affordable and rural housing segment and infrastructure, primarily in road and irrigation projects.
Housing and infrastructure spending to speed up Indian cement demand in 2018 - 2019
28 February 2018India: The credit agency ICRA forecasts that cement demand will grow by 4.5% in the 2018 – 2019 financial year due to growth in the housing sector and higher infrastructure spending. Improved rural incomes, higher rural credit and increased allocation for rural, agriculture and allied sectors are also likely to increase the demand for rural housing, according to the Press Trust of India.
Indian cement production rose by 2.7% to 217Mt in the nine months from April to December 2017 from 211Mt in the previous year. However, the first three months of this period, from April to June 2017, saw production drop due to local issues across the country such as a sand shortage, the implementation of Real Estate Regulatory Authority (RERA) Act and a drought. The following quarter then saw a fall in production due to the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), continued sand shortages and inclement weather. ICRA predicts that cement demand will grow by 3% for the remainder of the 2017 – 2018 financial year due to a boost in production in December 2017.
Rising energy costs to hit Indian cement producers profits
04 January 2018India: The credit agency ICRA forecasts that rising energy and freight costs due to higher pet coke, coal and diesel prices during the first half of 2017 – 2018 financial year may hit the profits of cement producers. Petcoke prices grew by 32% year-on-year in the first half of the year and coal prices rose by 44%, according to the Press Trust of India. Sabyasachi Majumdar, an analyst at ICRA, said that higher power, fuel and freight costs were likely to continue. He added that the ability of cement companies to raise their prices was crucial to maintaining profit levels.
ICRA anticipates cement demand growth towards end of 2017 - 2018
31 October 2017India: ICRA is expecting cement demand is pick up in the fourth quarter of the 2017 – 2018 financial year following weak real estate activity, sand shortage and Goods and Service tax (GST) implementation issues in the first half of the year. In its October 2017 update the credit ratings agency said that demand was expected to benefit from the housing sector and road and irrigation projects in the infrastructure sector, according to the Press Trust of India. It added that the profitability of the industry depends on the industry’s ability to control prices given that higher input costs for fuel and freight are expected.
The credit ratings agency said that cement demand remained subdued across the country due to various local issues. In the North, especially in the states of Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, the offtake had been impacted by a sand shortage and lack of labour. In the West the implementation of the Real Estate Regulatory Authority (RERA) Bill resulted in construction activity slowing down. In the South, Tamil Nadu and Kerala were hit as demand was affected by the sand shortage, drought impacting rural offtake and weak housing activity. A recent ban on sand mining in Bihar is also likely to reduce sales volume growth in the eastern region in coming months.
Closing the demand gap in India
04 October 2017It’s been a pessimistic month for the Indian cement industry with Ministry of Commerce & Industry data showing that cement production has fallen year-on-year every month since December 2016. This was followed by the Cement Manufacturers Association (CMA) saying that the industry was sitting on 100Mt/yr of excess production capacity. Now, the credit ratings agency ICRA has followed the data and downgraded its forecast for cement demand growth to not more than 4% for the 2017 - 2018 financial year.
Graph 1: Annual cement production in India. Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry.
Graph 2: Monthly cement production growth rate year-on-year in India: Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry.
Graph 1 shows a production peak in the 2015 - 2016 financial year before falling monthly production broke the trend in the 2016 - 2017 period. Graph 2 pinpoints the month it started to go wrong, November 2016, when the government introduced its demonetisation policy. Production growth went negative the following month in December 2017 and it hasn’t managed to right itself since then and grow. It’s convenient to blame the government for the slump in production but it troughed in February 2017 before taking a lower level of decline since then.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) annual report in August 2017 suggests that the policy failed in its principal purpose of reducing the kind of corruption that a cash heavy economy can hide such as tax avoidance. People reportedly managed to find ways to bypass the bank deposit limit and may have successfully laundered large amounts of cash without being caught. However, as commentators like the Financial Times have pointed out, the longer term implications of forcing the economy towards digital payments and increasing the tax base could yet be beneficial overall.
Graph 3: Cement production capacity utilisation rates in India. Source: UltraTech Cement.
Moving on, the CMA has blamed production overcapacity for the current mess and Graph 3 shows the problem starkly. If anything the CMA appears to have downplayed the over capacity crisis facing India, as UltraTech Cement’s figures (using data from the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion) show an overcapacity of 155Mt in the 2016 – 2017 year and this will grow to a forecast 157Mt in the next financial year, even though the utilisation rate is expected to rise slightly. UltraTech Cement’s estimates don’t see the utilisation rate topping 70% until the 2020 – 2021 financial year. Analysts quoted in the Mint business newspaper concur, although they reckoned it would the rate would bounce sooner, in 2019 - 2020. Last month when the CMA moaned about the industry's excess capacity it pinned its hopes on infrastructure schemes like the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train. This prompted an official at JK Cements to say that he didn't think that one train line was going to make much of a difference.
This is one reason why ICRA’s and the other credit agencies’ growth rate forecasts for cement demand are important, because they indicate how fast India might be able to close the gap between production capcity and demand. Unfortunately demonetisation scuppered ICRA’s growth prediciton for 2016 – 2017. It forecast a rate of 6% but it actually fell by 1.2%! So downgrading its forecast for 2017 – 2018, with fears of weather and the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in the second half of the year, is ominious. Major cement producers such as Ultratech Cement and Ambuja Cement have based their road to recovery in their latest investor presentations on a 6% growth rate or higher. Pitch it lower and the gap doesn’t close. Here’s hoping for a brisk second half.
ICRA downgrades cement demand growth 2017 – 2018 due to slow first half
29 September 2017India: The credit ratings agency ICRA has downgraded its forecast for cement demand growth to 3.5 – 4% for the 2017 - 2018 financial year due to a slow first half of the year. It blamed the slow first half on a sand shortage in some regions, the implementation of the Real Estate Regulatory Authority and slowed construction activity in the west, according to the Press Trust of India. The agency expects demand to be subdued during the second quarter of the year due to weather and the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST).
However, it forecasts demand to rebound afterwards as housing demand and infrastructure projects pick up. In July 2017 the agency had predicted a growth rate of 5%.
India: The credit ratings agency ICRA has forecast that cement demand is likely to increase by 5% year-on-year in the 2017 – 2018 financial year due to increases in infrastructure and residential housing. In a report on the Indian cement sector it said that demand for cement fell by 1.2% to 280Mt in the 2016 – 2017 period, according to the Hindu newspaper. It added that the government’s demonetisation policy had decreased sales volumes by 9% between November 2016 and March 2017 as construction activity fell. However, in July 2016 ICRA failed to anticipate the negative effects of demonetisation predicting that cement demand would grow by 6% in the 2016 – 2017. Since then sales picked up by 17% in April 2017 leading to the current optimistic outlook.
India: JK Cement’s Chief Financial Officer AK Saraogi has forecast that cement demand will rise by 8% in the 2017 – 2018 financial year due to government spending on infrastructure. JK Cement Special Executive Madhavkrishna Singhania said that demand in the current financial year is likely to be aided by ‘good’ monsoons that will boost spending particular in rural areas, according to the Press Trust of India. The forecasts follow several years of poor demand for cement in the country. Ratings agency ICRA also predicts similar increases in demand.