Displaying items by tag: National Development and Reform Commission

The National Development and Reform Commission and other government bodies in China released plans this week to cap clinker production capacity at 1.8Bnt/yr by the end of 2025. Energy efficiency of existing capacity will be used as the driver to determine which production lines can remain open. 30% of capacity will be required to be above the benchmark energy efficiency level. Plants below this line will be obliged to upgrade or face elimination.

Points of interest from the longer release include detail on how the authorities intend to promote energy efficiency. Installing improved production line equipment is as might be expected. However, there is also a drive towards low-carbon fuel substitution such as an increased thermal substitution rate (TSR) through the use of alternative fuels (AF), promotion of renewable energy sources and, interestingly, no new cement plants will be able to add captive coal power plants. The government is targeting a TSR of 10% by the end of 2025 with 30% of lines using AF in some form or another. A plan to reduce the clinker factor in cement is also being pushed through for the increased use of blast furnace slag, fly ash, carbide slag, manganese slag and other supplementary cementitious materials. This last point might have big implications for the ferrous slag export market but that’s a story for another day.

Working out how much these new measures will affect the cement sector in China in the short term is not straightforward since it’s unclear what the country’s actual production capacity is and how much of it is actually active. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China showed that cement output was 2.02Bnt in 2023. The China Cement Association (CCA) estimated that the capacity utilisation rate was 59% in 2023. So, if the sector were using all of its integrated cement plants flat out, then one might crudely suppose that the national production capacity might be around 3.5Bnt/yr. This guess does not take into account the prevalence of blended cements and a whole host of other factors so should be treated with caution. Given that cement output fell by 5% year-on-year in 2023, output could be just over 1.8Bnt in 2025 if the rate of decline holds. Research by Reuters in April 2024, suggested that the capacity utilisation rate hit 50% in that month, suggesting that the sector could meet the target in 2024 if it’s a particularly bad year. So, provided the production cap is enacted along the same lines of peak-shifting, where plants are temporarily shut for periods, then the target looks well within reach.

As reported in April 2024, the Chinese cement sector has faced rationalisation in recent years as the real estate market collapsed. Output peaked in 2020 and then fell subsequently. Most of the big producers endured falling sales volumes, revenue and profit in 2022, although some managed to resist the continuing decline in 2023. One coping mechanism has been to focus on overseas markets as proposed by the government’s Belt and Road initiative. Huaxin Cement has been a particular proponent of this strategy. The CCA says that China-based companies have invested in and built 43 clinker production lines in 21 countries with a cement production capacity of 81Mt/yr. Another 43Mt/yr of capacity is currently being built outside of China with yet another 25Mt/yr of capacity proposed for construction.

It is interesting, then, to note that the CCA issued an official warning this week to its members to invest ‘cautiously’ in Uzbekistan. The association said in a statement that at the end of April 2024 the country had 46 integrated production lines with a cement production capacity of 38Mt/yr. This is double the country’s demand for cement. Half of this production capacity is managed by China-based companies. It added that the utilisation rate was currently 50%, that the price had dropped by about 40% since 2020 and that competition was ‘fierce.’ Incredibly, another 7Mt/yr of capacity is expected to be added in 2024. The CCA has advised Chinese companies to consider the state of the Uzbek cement market before making any more investments.

The two news stories we have explored this week cover two sides of the same issue: Chinese cement overcapacity. The local market is finally slowing down after a period of phenomenal growth and the big question is what is the actual market demand now that all the big stuff has already been built. The government gives every impression it is using the decline to meet its sustainability goals. Like institutions in many other places it has set itself targets that it seems likely to meet. The flipside of overcapacity at home is investment overseas. China-based plant equipment manufacturers have certainly done well out of this situation. Yet in Uzbekistan, at least, it looks like the cement sector in China has also managed to export its overcapacity. This has created the absurd situation where the CCA has implored its members and others to exercise the same self-discipline abroad that the government extols at home. Another way to put this might be that Chinese cement companies are increasingly unable to make money at home… or in Uzbekistan. This then leaves a query over where else enthusiastic Chinese cement investors may be causing market imbalances. One solution might be for the Chinese government to impose a cap on clinker production by its companies outside the mainland. Whatever happens next though, the introduction of a capacity cap in mainland China marks a decisive change to the local cement sector.

China: The National Development and Reform Commission, along with other government departments, has launched the Special Action Plan for Energy Conservation and CO₂ Reduction in the Cement Industry. The plan aims to cap clinker capacity at 1.8Bnt/yr by 2026, with 30% of it above the national energy efficiency benchmark level. This will reduce energy consumption per tonne by 3.7% from 2020 levels. The plan will eliminate 13Mt of CO₂ emissions and 5Mt of coal consumption in 2024 – 2025.

China: Data from the National Development and Reform Commission reports that the profits of local cement companies more than doubled to US$64bn in 2018 compared to 2017. Cement output grew by 3% year-on-year to 2.18Bnt, according to the Xinhua News Agency. Cement sector growth has been attributed to rising cement prices. In December 2018 the average price of cement was 10.6% higher than at the same time in 2017.

China: Cement producers will be forced to pay fees for captive power plants under new legislation introduced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). The move was introduced in a draft plan in March 2018 in order to reduce electricity prices for industrial and commercial users, according to Reuters. The new regulations are also intended to cut down on pollution from coal-powered plants used by the cement sector as well as steel and aluminium producers. The size of fees paid by onsite power plants will be decided by provincial governments.

China: Cement production has fallen by 0.5% year-on-year to 1.5Bt in the first eight months of 2017. This compares to a rise of 2.5% in the same period in 2016, according to data from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). The Xinhua News Agency has also reported that the property sector stagnated in major cities due to government moves to prevent speculation.

China: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is considering aiming for a 10% cut in cement production. The Chinese state planning body announced on 6 March 2017 that it is pushing to cut production capacity in a number of industries including coal, steel and cement, according to the Nikkei Asian Review. Some sources place Chinese cement production capacity at up to 3.5Bnt/yr and 30% of this is believed to be surplus. The commission intends to cut production capacity through market control and legislation. The change in policy from the NDRC coincides with the third consecutive year that China’s annual target for real economic growth has been lowered.

China: Cement output grew by 2.6% year-on-year to 1.77Bnt in the first nine months of 2016, according to data from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). This is compared to a 4.7% drop in output that was noted for the same period in 2015 compared to 2014. Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that property sector investment rose by 5.8% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2016, a faster rate than earlier in the year, supported by interest rate cuts and lower deposits.

China: China has decided to implement a tiered electricity pricing system for the cement plants to promote 'structural adjustment' in the cement industry, according to a circular released by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) according to Chinese state news.

The tiered electricity pricing system for the domestic cement industry will be based on comprehensive electricity consumption of clinker (cement) and implemented on an annual basis from 1 January to 31 December. Local governments will also be able to implement the system and raise the electricity prices for cement plants.

China: Profits made by the cement industry have fallen by 67.6% year-on-year to US$521m for the first quarter of 2015 according to statistics released by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). Cement output fell slightly by 3.4% year-on-year to 428Mt in the same period.

China: China's building materials sector remained sluggish as the property market showed no signs of warming, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). Cement output rose by 3.6% year-on-year to 1.14Bnt in the first half of 2014, slowing by 6.1% points from the expansion seen during the same period of 2013. The data pointed to the continuing weakness in the property market. The average home price in 70 Chinese cities fell by 0.47% during June 2014, the second consecutive monthly drop after a 0.15% fall in May 2014.