Displaying items by tag: Output

Vietnam: Cement production reached 22.7Mt in the first two months of 2025, up by 7% year-on-year, according to the General Statistics Office (GSO). In February 2025, the country produced 11.3Mt of cement, marking a 24% increase compared to the same month in 2024.

In 2024, Vietnam produced 184Mt of cement, reflecting a 4% rise year-on-year based on revised figures.

Cuba: Cement production fell to 258,000t in 2024, representing only 10% of the country’s installed capacity, according to the OSDE Group of Business Construction Materials. President Reynolds Ramírez Vigaud attributed the decline to energy shortages amid national financial challenges.

The sector's problems date back to 2017, according to CiberCuba, when capacity utilisation was 58%. Despite initiatives such as the first ‘eco-friendly’ cement production in 2018 and the reopening of the Sancti Spíritus cement plant in 2022, the industry has faced logistical issues and plant shutdowns. This has a knock-on effect on the government’s annual housing plan and the inability to meet domestic demand for cement. The government is also prioritising the export of cement to obtain foreign currency, worsening shortages and increasing prices.

New cement plants at Nuevitas and Santiago de Cuba will begin production in 2025.

Vietnam: Cement production rose by 3.5% year-on-year to 184.2Mt in 2024, according to the latest data from the General Statistics Office.

In December 2024, cement output reached 17.2Mt, up by 10% year-on-year. The revised figure for 2023 shows production reached 120Mt, down 4.5% year-on-year.

Vietnam: Vietnam produced 167Mt of cement in the first 11 months of 2024, up by 3% year-on-year, according to the latest data from the General Statistics Office (GSO). In November 2024, the country’s cement output increased by 12% year-on-year to 17.2Mt, according to the GSO. In 2023, Vietnam produced 120.1Mt of cement, down by 5% year-on-year.

Vietnam: Vietnam produced 119Mt of cement between January and August 2024, up by 1.3% year-on-year, according to data released by the General Statistics Office. In August 2024, production was 15.6Mt, up by 6.3% compared to August 2023. In 2023, the country recorded a cement output of 120Mt, a decline of 4.5% year-on-year.

The National Development and Reform Commission and other government bodies in China released plans this week to cap clinker production capacity at 1.8Bnt/yr by the end of 2025. Energy efficiency of existing capacity will be used as the driver to determine which production lines can remain open. 30% of capacity will be required to be above the benchmark energy efficiency level. Plants below this line will be obliged to upgrade or face elimination.

Points of interest from the longer release include detail on how the authorities intend to promote energy efficiency. Installing improved production line equipment is as might be expected. However, there is also a drive towards low-carbon fuel substitution such as an increased thermal substitution rate (TSR) through the use of alternative fuels (AF), promotion of renewable energy sources and, interestingly, no new cement plants will be able to add captive coal power plants. The government is targeting a TSR of 10% by the end of 2025 with 30% of lines using AF in some form or another. A plan to reduce the clinker factor in cement is also being pushed through for the increased use of blast furnace slag, fly ash, carbide slag, manganese slag and other supplementary cementitious materials. This last point might have big implications for the ferrous slag export market but that’s a story for another day.

Working out how much these new measures will affect the cement sector in China in the short term is not straightforward since it’s unclear what the country’s actual production capacity is and how much of it is actually active. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China showed that cement output was 2.02Bnt in 2023. The China Cement Association (CCA) estimated that the capacity utilisation rate was 59% in 2023. So, if the sector were using all of its integrated cement plants flat out, then one might crudely suppose that the national production capacity might be around 3.5Bnt/yr. This guess does not take into account the prevalence of blended cements and a whole host of other factors so should be treated with caution. Given that cement output fell by 5% year-on-year in 2023, output could be just over 1.8Bnt in 2025 if the rate of decline holds. Research by Reuters in April 2024, suggested that the capacity utilisation rate hit 50% in that month, suggesting that the sector could meet the target in 2024 if it’s a particularly bad year. So, provided the production cap is enacted along the same lines of peak-shifting, where plants are temporarily shut for periods, then the target looks well within reach.

As reported in April 2024, the Chinese cement sector has faced rationalisation in recent years as the real estate market collapsed. Output peaked in 2020 and then fell subsequently. Most of the big producers endured falling sales volumes, revenue and profit in 2022, although some managed to resist the continuing decline in 2023. One coping mechanism has been to focus on overseas markets as proposed by the government’s Belt and Road initiative. Huaxin Cement has been a particular proponent of this strategy. The CCA says that China-based companies have invested in and built 43 clinker production lines in 21 countries with a cement production capacity of 81Mt/yr. Another 43Mt/yr of capacity is currently being built outside of China with yet another 25Mt/yr of capacity proposed for construction.

It is interesting, then, to note that the CCA issued an official warning this week to its members to invest ‘cautiously’ in Uzbekistan. The association said in a statement that at the end of April 2024 the country had 46 integrated production lines with a cement production capacity of 38Mt/yr. This is double the country’s demand for cement. Half of this production capacity is managed by China-based companies. It added that the utilisation rate was currently 50%, that the price had dropped by about 40% since 2020 and that competition was ‘fierce.’ Incredibly, another 7Mt/yr of capacity is expected to be added in 2024. The CCA has advised Chinese companies to consider the state of the Uzbek cement market before making any more investments.

The two news stories we have explored this week cover two sides of the same issue: Chinese cement overcapacity. The local market is finally slowing down after a period of phenomenal growth and the big question is what is the actual market demand now that all the big stuff has already been built. The government gives every impression it is using the decline to meet its sustainability goals. Like institutions in many other places it has set itself targets that it seems likely to meet. The flipside of overcapacity at home is investment overseas. China-based plant equipment manufacturers have certainly done well out of this situation. Yet in Uzbekistan, at least, it looks like the cement sector in China has also managed to export its overcapacity. This has created the absurd situation where the CCA has implored its members and others to exercise the same self-discipline abroad that the government extols at home. Another way to put this might be that Chinese cement companies are increasingly unable to make money at home… or in Uzbekistan. This then leaves a query over where else enthusiastic Chinese cement investors may be causing market imbalances. One solution might be for the Chinese government to impose a cap on clinker production by its companies outside the mainland. Whatever happens next though, the introduction of a capacity cap in mainland China marks a decisive change to the local cement sector.

Vietnam: Cement production in Vietnam has fallen by 0.7% year-on-year in the first four months of 2024, reaching 57.6Mt, according to the latest data from the government’s General Statistics Office. In April 2024, the country’s cement output was 16.8Mt, a year-on-year decline of 0.7%.

In 2023, the country produced 120.1Mt of cement, representing a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% from the previous year.

Bolivia: National cement production reached a record 4Mt in 2023, despite a noted decline in exports, according to the Bolivian Institute of Foreign Trade (IBCE). Santa Cruz contributed 27.4% to the total cement output, followed closely by La Paz with 26.8%, and Chuquisaca at 18.3%. According to Noticias Financieras News, this output is largely due to investments by cement companies in Santa Cruz, such as Itacamba's US$220m investment in a new plant in 2016, which has a production capacity of 870,000t/yr. Other firms like Soboce and Fancesa have also invested in the region. The construction industry in Santa Cruz grew by 3% in 2023, although this was a decrease in growth rate compared to previous years.

Poland: The Polish Cement Association reported a 12% fall in cement production in 2023, with output reaching 16.6Mt, according to data from the Central Statistical Office. The decline reflects challenges faced by the construction sector amidst a slowing economy, despite a slight GDP growth of over 0.2%.

Zbigniew Pilch, chief marketing officer of the association, said "2023 was a difficult year for the construction sector as the economy slowed down while GDP grew by a little over 0.2%." The initial data for 2024 suggests a potential rebound in the Polish cement industry, however, with Pilch adding "In February 2024, cement production totalled 1.2Mt, which represents a 33% year-on-year increase.”

We turn to look at the Chinese cement sector now that the larger China-based cement producers have released their financial results for 2023. In summary, national output of cement has continued to fall and many of the bigger companies are reporting weakening sales and profits. Yet this trend appears to be slowing, with a few of the producers managing to grow revenue, profits and sales volumes.

Graph 1: Cement output in China, 2018 to 2023. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China shows that cement output fell by 4.5% year-on-year from 2.11Bnt in 2022 to 2.02Bnt in 2023. This is a slower rate of decline than the 10.4% drop reported between 2021 and 2022. However, it is worth noting that the rate of decrease in output on a half-year basis fell strongly in the first half of 2023 but remained similar in the second half of the year. In its commentary, the China Cement Association (CCA) said that the country’s real estate development investment fell by 10% year-on-year to US$1.53tn.

Graph 2: Sales revenue from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

Graph 3: Sales volumes of cement and clinker from selected Chinese cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

Unlike in 2022 the two graphs above show that not every cement producer has lost revenue or sales volumes of cement in 2023. CNBM chair Zhou Yuxian used the phrase ‘storms and challenges’ to describe the situation faced by the world’s largest cement company. He left president Wei Rushan to deliver the bad news that the cement industry as a whole faced “insufficient demand, weakening expectations and weakening off-peak season characteristics” along with surpluses and high costs. He said that the cement sector in China saw its profit fall by 50% to US$4.42bn in 2023, its lowest figure since the mid-2000s.

In comparison CNBM Group’s revenue fell by 10% year-on-year to US$29bn and profit by 52% to US$534m. This was principally due to losses from the group’s basic building materials division, the section that makes heavy building materials, including cement. Alongside this, it pushed on with its supply-side structural reforms, implemented staggered peak production and worked on sustainability initiatives. These included preparations for the national carbon emissions trading scheme. Anhui Conch’s results showed that it managed to increase its revenue but its sales volumes of cement dropped and its profits fell by 33% to US$1.48bn. It achieved the boost in revenue by growing its trading business.

Of the smaller companies covered here, only Huaxin Cement managed to grow its revenue in 2023. It appeared to pull this off by growing its concrete and aggregate business domestically whilst growing the business overseas at the same time. The share of its international business grew to 16% in 2023 from 13% in 2022. Major overseas acquisitions in 2023 included Oman Cement and InterCement’s subsidiaries in Mozambique and South Africa. More recently Huaxin Cement has also been reported by local media as the preferential bidder for InterCement’s business in Brazil, although no formal announcement has been made. Of the rest, Tangshan Jidong Cement, CRBMT and China Tianrui all reported declines in sales revenue and profits. Tangshan Jidong Cement did manage to grow its cement sales volumes, but reported heightened competition in the north and north-east of China where most of its plants are located.

With the first quarter results for 2024 on the way soon, the CCA has been bracing itself and the sector for more bad news. It noted that national cement prices during the last week of March 2024 were about 1% lower than during the same week in 2023. Prices were lower in East, Central and South China, although they had increased in Chengdu and Sichuan. The CCA is worried that a price war, either nationally or regionally, will make a bad situation worse. It has called on cement producers to accept that the slowdown of infrastructure development in the country has led to a decline in cement demand and that this is the new normal. Apart from the usual watchwords of ‘self-discipline,’ ‘overcapacity reduction’ and ‘supply-side reforms’ the association has suggested that cement companies look for growth internationally and look to the leadership of associations to help everyone adapt to the new market situation. China’s sales output of cement may be starting to stabilise, but the market has a way to go yet to adapt to the new reality.