Displaying items by tag: Philippines

There has been an interesting knock-on effect from further economic integration of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) this week. Holcim Philippines may delay the construction of a 2.5Mt/yr cement plant in Bulacan province due to a drop in import tariffs in 2015. Vietnam or Indonesia were named as possible sources of clinker due to their excess capacity.

The ASEAN group comprises 10 countries including Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia. Their respective cement production capacities range from 0.3Mt/yr at a clinker grinding plant in Singapore to Indonesia's integrated cement production capacity of 45Mt/yr. In total the ASEAN countries have a production capacity of around 220Mt/yr for a population of about 600m with national gross domestic products (GDP) per capita ranging from US$900 (Laos) to US$52,000 (Singapore).

One scenario for cement producers in the ASEAN countries is that they might be swamped by exports from places like Vietnam. That country had a production capacity of 73Mt/yr in 2013 with cement sales predicted to rise to 63Mt in 2014. Assuming the government released figures are correct, that leaves at least a 10Mt of cement production-sales gap that could torpedo a neighbouring country's cement industry in the free trade area.

Indonesia, the other potential source of clinker that Holcim Philippines mentioned, has seen construction growth slow and production capacity grow. Holcim reported in its nine-month report in November 2013 that, while national cement sales had risen by 5.3% to 41.6Mt, supply capacity had risen by 9% to 59Mt/yr. Assuming equal sales distribution throughout this suggests a capacity gap of 4Mt.

Some politicians in the region have complained that impending free trade area will create winners and losers. At a recent ASEAN meeting in Yangon, Myanmar a Myanmar planning minister raised the issue of a development gap within the ASEAN region calling for renegotiation for countries like Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos.

Meanwhile both the cement industries in Vietnam and Indonesia have clearly anticipated the implications of the ASEAN Economic Community. The Vietnam National Cement Association expects to remain competitive within the ASEAN region and against Chinese imports after 2015. In Indonesia State Enterprises Minister Dahlan Iskan stated this week that the cement industry was ready for the ASEAN Economic Community thanks to the government's strategy to consolidate its major cement producers within one company, Semen Indonesia. Consistent cement industry growth in South East Asia may be about to change.

Three stories this week from the Philippines build a complex picture of a booming cement industry. San Miguel purchased a 25% stake in Northern Cement, Lafarge Republic announced its capital expenditure budget for 2013 and the country's on-going price probe reported on its progress.

San Miguel's entry into the market should raise the most interest since its president stated that the company intends to spend US$750m on the construction of three cement plants. Each plant will have a cement production capacity of 2Mt/yr with construction timed to start in 2013 and finish by the end of 2015.

This level of investment, if it happens, surpasses the last major build announcement in the Philippines. In May 2013 Holcim released details of a US$550m plant in Bulacan with a capacity of 2.5Mt/yr. Some indication of the viability of San Miguel's plans may be gleaned from the comparative costs of the projects. San Miguel's plans will cost US$125/t of installed capacity, less than half of Holcim's US$220/t. Possible reasons for this difference may lie in San Miguel releasing the wrong figures or a reliance on lower build quality. However San Miguel's sheer size - its net income was US$2.25bn in 2011 - may itself herald the start of a major player in the domestic cement industry.

Meanwhile the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) has continued to investigate why the price of cement has risen since 2012. Currently prices are about 5% above the suggested retail price for cement. Cement producers blamed the increases on a higher cost of coal.

The Philippines is currently experiencing massive cement sales increases. In 2012 sales rose by 17.5% to 18.4Mt from 15.6Mt in 2011. With a total capacity of 21Mt/yr and a capacity utilisation rate of 85% in 2012, this growth looks set to continue in 2013, as confirmed by more rises in sales in the first quarter.

Coal ash seems to be in short supply in the Philippines. Lafarge Republic has signed a deal with a local energy producer to buy coal ash from a new 600MW coal plant.

Although the cost of the deal was not announced, the agreement will run from when the plant starts operation until 2019. This move follows a similar arrangement by Cemex Philippines in June 2012. In that instance Cemex agreed to purchase coal ash from the 200MW Kepco SPC Power Corp plant in Naga, Cebu for US$0.95/t.

Distinctively both arrangements were set up in conjunction with local government. For the Lafarge deal part of the agreement involved donating at least 10,000 bags of cement per month for use in various infrastructure projects of the province. Bataan governor Enrique Garcia put the value of the deal at US$1.19m/yr. For the Cemex deal the Cebu Provincial Government signed the agreement. In November 2009 Cebu Province and Kepco entered into an Ash Disposal Agreement, where Cebu Province was granted exclusive rights to the ash produced by the power plant.

Adding to the suspicion that the Philippines lacks sufficient coal ash, back in the autumn of 2011, the Cement Manufacturers' Association of the Philippines (CeMAP) asked the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) to impose mandatory quality standards on raw materials, such as coal ash. This followed accusations by CeMAP that poor quality coal ash might be behind complaints from contractors working on infrastructure projects. In 2009 a DTI profile on the cement industry placed the demand for Portland cement at 73% and the demand for pozzolan cement at 27% of the total.

Cement sales in the Philippines have been steadily growing over the last decade. Lafarge Republic announced in August 2012 that it was increasing its capacity to just below 9Mt/yr in 2013. Around the same time CeMAP released data showing that sales were up 20% year-on-year for the first half of 2012. The local industry reported combined sales of 15.6Mt in 2011. Previous to this, Holcim Philippines announced the US$9.46m upgrade to a previously closed mill in Batangas.