Displaying items by tag: Semen Indonesia

Many of the first quarter financial results are in from the multinational cement producers and a few points are worth discussing. As usual a few caveats are worth mentioning such as seasonal and geographical variations between companies, such as producers in the northern hemisphere experiencing a generally slower period. It’s also worth noting that this is a selective look at some of the larger cement producers as not all of them release detailed figures at this stage and others have been delayed. However, the economic effects of the coronavirus lockdowns are clearly showing an effect in a kind of wave as the pandemic has spread.

Graph 1: Sales revenues in the first quarter of 2020 from selected cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

Graph 1 above shows the effects of the earlier lockdown in China upon the results of the Chinese producers like CNBM, Anhui Conch and China Resources Cement (CRC). What’s interesting with these companies is that they have all suffered revenue hits of 20 – 25%. Huaxin Cement, a producer based in Hubei province near Wuhan where the Chinese lockdown was strictest, is not shown in Graph 1 but its revenue fell by 35% in the first quarter. See GCW452 for more on coronavirus effects on the Chinese cement industry.

Looking more widely, both LafargeHolcim and HeidelbergCement suffered declines of around 10%. This is somewhat misleading as both companies are constantly selling assets making the like-for-like results not quite as bad, particularly in the case of LafargeHolcim with its South-East Asian divestments. Although note this week that LafargeHolcim’s deal to sell its majority stake in Holcim Philippines lapsed this week due to the local competition regulator not granting permission in time. Yet, they are also beneficiaries and victims to an extent of their wide geographical spread with worse performance in Asia and better results in North America. For a fuller look at LafargeHolcim’s first quarter results see last week’s column. The rest of the producers featured generally reflect their tighter market spread with Buzzi Unicem particularly benefiting from the relatively untouched market in the US. Shree Cement, an Indian producer, escaped relatively unscathed, possibly as the Indian lockdown only started in late March 2020. All eyes will be on the results of UltraTech Cement, the largest producer in India, when they finally emerge.

Graph 2: Cement sales volumes in the first quarter of 2020 from selected cement producers. Source: Company financial reports.

Cement sales volumes tell a similar story, although a few different companies are featured in Graph 2. Note CRC’s year-on-year fall of 26% to 11.2Mt in the first quarter. It’s the only larger Chinese cement producer that we’ve found so far that has released sales volumes. Semen Indonesia is interesting too because its figures jumped in January 2020 as its acquisition of Holcim Indonesia only went on the books in February 2019. It’s February and March sales volumes have each been 4 - 5% down year-on-year but it’s far from clear whether this is due to general production overcapacity in the country or from the global health crisis. Despite this, its export volumes from both the mainland and its TLCC subsidiary in Vietnam have held up well. Unfortunately though, its performance in Vietnam may be an outlier if data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs is to be believed this week. It indicated that overall cement exports from the country fell by 9.7% year-on-year to 7.73Mt in the first quarter of 2020. Cementos Argos is also worth looking at as it suffered from the government lockdown in Colombia despite having an international presence in the Caribbean and the US.

Most of the world’s largest cement producers are preparing for the economic shockwaves from lockdowns to hit balance sheets in the second quarter of 2020. Many have said exactly this and have paraded their liquidity levels in preparation. Alongside this the results of the Chinese producers in the next quarter may offer some light on what kind of recovery is possible from easing lockdown measures. Yet the risk of second waves of infections from coronavirus potentially jeopardises any kind of fast or easy recovery without a vaccine. Today’s news that Cemex is considering mothballing its integrated plant at South Ferriby in the UK has been blamed on an analysis of the company’s European cement supply chain. The company says it is not related to coronoavirus but it does suggest the company is making savings.

This week has seen international press coverage return to Wuhan, China and South Korea where small numbers of infections have started to build despite being thought mostly eradicated. No one wants the so-called ‘W’ economic recovery with its rollercoaster ride of crests and dips or indeed the ‘L’ with its slow tail of recovery. Yet, for better or for worse, some form of normality has to return after the lockdowns end. The UK, for example, the country with the worst death rate from coronanvirus in Europe, has allowed its construction workers to pick up tools this week. If and when they can do so in the UK and everywhere else without causing the basic reproduction number (R₀) to rise then the future starts to look a little brighter.

Indonesia: Japan-based Taiheiyo Cement has announced its acquisition of a 15% stake in state-owned Semen Indonesia subsidiary Solusi Bangun Indonesia for between US$186m and US$232m, subject to the terms of a partnership agreement with Semen Indonesia.

Under the ‘2020 Mid-Term Management Plan,’ Taiheiyo Cement says that it aims to ‘become a corporate group with a strong presence in the Pacific Rim.’ Its partnership with Semen Indonesia is part of Taiheiyo Cement’s response to a forecasted long-term decline in domestic cement demand in Japan.

In the first quarter of 2020 Semen Indonesia sold 9.36Mt of cement, up by 7.0% year-on-year from 8.74Mt in the corresponding period of 2019. InsiderStories News has reported that domestic demand in the period fell by 4.9% to 14.9Mt from 15.7Mt, while exports fell by 2.5% to 1.39Mt from 1.42Mt but rose by 6.2% on a month-by-month basis in March 2020 to 3.09Mt from 2.91Mt in February 2020. April 2020’s cement sales are expected to be lower due to the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak.

Semen Indonesia’s third quarter results this week give us a reason to look at one of the world’s largest cement producing countries, Indonesia. As the local market leader, Semen Indonesia’s financial results have been positive so far in 2019 following its acquisition of Holcim Indonesia at the start of the year. Analysts at Fitch noted that gross margins for Semen Indonesia and its rival Indocement grew in the first half of 2019 as coal prices fell and cement sales prices rose.

Sales volumes, however tell a story of local production overcapacity and a move to exports. Domestic sales volumes fell by 2.05% year-on-year to 48.8Mt in the first nine months of 2019. Cement and clinker exports nearly compensated for this by rising by 15.4% to 4.8Mt. This is brisk growth but slower than the explosion of exports in 2018. Semen Indonesia’s local sales from its company before the acquisition fell faster than the national rate at 4.9% to 18.7Mt. The new sales from Solusi Bangun, the new name for Holcim Indonesia, partially alleviated this. It’s been a similar story for HeidelbergCement’s Indocement. Its sales revenue and income have risen so far in 2019. At the mid-year mark its sales volumes fell by 2.3% year-on-year to 29.4Mt.

Graph 1: Indonesian cement sales, January – September 2019. Source: Semen Indonesia.

Geographically, Indonesia Cement Association (ASI) data shows that over half of the country’s sales volumes (56%) were in Java in the first half of 2018. This was followed by Sumatra (22%), Sulawesi (8%), Kalimantan (also known as Indonesian Borneo, 6%), Bali-Nusa Tenggara (6%) and Maluku-Papua (2%). By cement type the market is dominated by bagged cement sales. It constituted 74% of sales in September 2019. The main producers have been keen to point out growth in bulk sales as its share has increased over the last decade.

Graph 2: Indonesian cement sales by type, 2010 – 2019. Source: Semen Indonesia/Indonesia Cement Association.

Previously the main story from the Indonesian market has been one of overcapacity and this has continued. It had a utilisation rate of 70% in 2018 from production volumes of 75.1Mt and a capacity of 110Mt, according to ASI data. This was likely to have been a major consideration in LafargeHolcim’s decision to leave the country and South-East Asia (see GCW379) with no end in sight to the situation in the short to medium term. At the end of 2018 it felt like consolidation was in progress following this sale and the reported sale of Semen Panasia. So far though this has been all and perhaps the upturn in the second quarter might buy the producers more time.

As mentioned at the start, another aspect of the Indonesian market deserving comment is that it is one of the first countries with a large cement sector where a Chinese company has made a significant entry. Conch Cement Indonesia, a subsidiary of China’s Anhui Conch, became the third largest producer following the acquisition of Holcim Indonesia. Semen Indonesia and Indocement control 70% of local installed capacity across both integrated and grinding plants with 51Mt/yr and 25.5Mt/yr respectively.

Conch Cement Indonesia is the next biggest with 8.7Mt from three integrated plants and a grinding unit. It’s in a tranche of three smaller producers locally, along with Semen Merah Putih and Semen Bosowa. Fitch also picked up on this in a research report on the cement sector published in August 2019. It pointed out that, although Holcim Indonesia and Indocement had gained pricing power through their leading market share, this is being eroded by local producers owned by Chinese companies.

Depending on how you look at it, Indonesia has the ‘fortune’ to be only the second largest producer in South-East Asia, after Vietnam. China, the world’s largest producer, is not too far away either. As can be seen above this can be a mixed blessing for local producers as the market changes. Overcapacity abounds, a major multinational has moved out, a local firm has consolidated the market as a result and Chinese influence grows steadily. Indonesia could well be an example of things to come for other markets.

Indonesia: Semen Indonesia has reported revenues of US$2.00bn in the nine months to 30 September 2019, up by 31% from US$1.53bn in the corresponding period of 2018. The Group’s acquisition of Holcim Indonesia in February 2019 expanded its domestic cement production capacity to 39.4Mt/yr, which it says has bolstered its competetiveness against importers in a crowded domestic market.

The company recorded US$91.7m in profit over the period, down by 38% year-on-year from US$148m as its foreign sections failed to grow.

Indonesia: Semen Indonesia’s revenue grew by 23% year-on-year to US$1.17bn in the first half of 2019 from US$0.95bn in the same period in 2018. Its net profit halved to US$34.3m from US468.8m. Its domestic sales volumes of cement fell by 7.17% to 7.78Mt in the first five months of 2019 from 10.54Mt in the same period in 2018. Exports rose by 7.42% to 1.38Mt from 1.28Mt. Both local sales and exports fell at its Thang Long Cement subsidiary in Vietnam. However, its acquisition of Holcim Philippines in February 2019 has boosted its overall sales by 17% to 15.2Mt.

Indonesia: Semen Indonesia’s cement sales volumes grew by 19% year-on-year to 8.89Mt in the first three months of 2019 from 7.45Mt in the same period in 2018. The company’s acquisition of Holcim Indonesia in February 2019 drove the growth. The cement producer’s domestic sales fell by 3.5% to 5.98Mt although export sales grew significantly. Both domestic and export sales from its Vietnamese TLCC subsidiary fell by 32% to 0.41Mt. Overall national cement sales volumes increased by 3.2% to 17Mt in the reporting period.

Indonesia: Exports drove Semen Indonesia’s cement sales volume growth in 2018. Its local sales volumes of cement grew by 1.2% year-on-year in 2018 to 27.4Mt from 27.1Mt in 2017 but exports increased by 68% to 3.16Mt from 1.87Mt. Sales volumes at its Thanh Long Cement subsidiary in Vietnam grew by 7.9% to 2.57Mt from 2.39Mt due to a sharp increase in exports. The group’s revenue rose by 10% to US$2.17bn from US$1.96bn. Its net profit nearly doubled to US$218m from US$117m.

Semen Indonesia completed its acquisition of Holcim Indonesia for US$1.75bn in February 2019. Prior to the purchase it had a cement production capacity of 38.2Mt/yr and Holcim Indonesia had a capacity of 14.8Mt/yr.

Indonesia: Semen Indonesia’s sales export volumes grew by 68.7% year-on-year to 3.16Mt in 2018 from 1.87Mt in 2017. By comparison its local sales rose by 1.2% year-on-year to 27.4Mt from 27.1Mt. Overall, including the group’s Thanh Long Cement subsidiary in Vietnam, sales volumes increased by 5.8% to 33.2Mt from 31.3Mt.

Company Sigit Wahono said that domestic sales had been ‘undermined’ by oversupply in the local market, according to the Antara news agency. However, he said that the state-owned cement producer was planning to expand its export market to countries in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Africa and the Middle East, as well as Australia. The group has a production capacity of 53Mt/yr following its acquisition of Holcim Indonesia in early 2019.

Indonesia: Semen Indonesia has renamed Holcim Indonesia as Solusi Bangun following its takeover. Semen Indonesia’s corporate secretary Agung Wiharto said that the acquisition was aimed at increasing the country's cement plant network and strengthening its supply chain, according to the Jakarta Post newspaper. He added that the purchase would also benefit the company’s ready-mix concrete business. Lowered distribution and raw material costs are also anticipated.

Indonesia: LafargeHolcim has closed the divestment of its Holcim Indonesia. It has sold its 80.6% share of the subsidiary to Semen Indonesia for US$1.75bn. The deal was first announced in November 2018. The company said that the proceeds from the sale would ‘significantly’ improve its net debt to recurring earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) ratio by 0.2 with the target of two times or less to be achieved by the end of 2019. LafargeHolcim has been targeting divestments as part of its Strategy 2022 initiative.