Displaying items by tag: Shortage

Cement shortages were being reported in the US media last week in Alabama and South Carolina. The owner of a ready-mixed concrete supplier in South Carolina was blaming it on labour and supply shortages. Dan Crosby, the president of Metrocon, told Fox News that his business could only take on 60% of the work it could normally cope with due to the issue despite demand for construction growing in the state. Meanwhile, the Alabama Concrete Industries Association said that its home state saw a 14% increase in the demand for concrete in 2021 but that a cement shortage might cause delays to projects. The association also pointed the blame at labour and supply issues. It pointed out that high demand for concrete during the winter prevented inventory being built up and then the annual cement plant maintenance breaks in the spring added to the problems. Once contractors actually secured supplies of cement they then faced further delays due to a nationwide truck driver shortage!

Graph 1: Annual rolling cement shipments in the South of the US. Source: USGS.

Data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) doesn’t especially shed light on the situation in Alabama and South Carolina. Alabama was the fifth largest cement producing state in the country in January 2022 but this is unsurprising as it’s the state with the fifth largest cement production capacity. Rolling annual data on Portland and blended cement shipments by origin show the effects of the coronavirus outbreak in the south from the start of 2020 to January 2022. Shipments took a dive in 2020 and then mostly recovered in 2021. However, Alabama, Kentucky and Tennessee saw shipments rise from 7.1Mt pre-pandemic to 7.6Mt in January 2022. South Carolina’s shipments grew from 3Mt to 3.2Mt. Regionally, the North East had a similar pattern although, unlike the South, shipments have surpassed those at the start of 2020. The Midwest and West were different with a general upwards trend over the two years, although the West softened slightly from mid-2021 onwards. Overall the US as a whole has seen its shipments grow throughout this period.

Ed Sullivan from the Portland Cement Association (PCA) told the May 2022 issue of Global Cement Magazine that the US cement sector did well in 2021 with a 4.1% year-on-year rise in sales to 104Mt. However, he flagged up supply chain problems that actually slowed growth, led by a lack of staff.

The other point along these lines that Sullivan made was that imports of cement might not necessarily be able to compensate for domestic supply issues due to global demand for shipping post-coronavirus. USGS data placed imports to the US at 13.7Mt in 2019 compared to 16.3Mt in 2021. Notably, Cemex restarted one production line in 2021 at its CPN cement plant in Sonora State in Mexico to export cement to the west of the US. In March 2022 it added that it was going to restart another line at the plant also. It’s not alone though as GCC reported in January 2022 that a line at one of its plants in Chihuahua, Mexico, was exporting cement to Texas. Sullivan reckoned that January 2022 was ‘weak’ but that it was followed by an ‘extremely strong’ February 2022. The first quarter results from Holcim and CRH seem to back this up with the former describing the period as ‘outstanding’ and the region leading its sales and earnings growth rate globally. CRH reported strong demand in central and southern regions.

As the US economy restarted following the peak of the early coronavirus waves in 2020, various supply chain issues have manifested. Staff shortages are one issue and this can also worsen other logistic problems. The south seems particularly vulnerable to all of this as it is both the country’s largest cement market and because demand has held up. In January 2022 research by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) identified several reasons for staff shortages in the US and the UK. These included increased inactivity among older workers, the so called ‘She-cession’ (where female employment has overly reduced due to coronavirus trends) and shifting worker preferences amid strong labour demand.

Staff shortages are expected to sort themselves out throughout 2022 but favourable forecast demand for cement in the US is balanced by inflationary pressure. Persistent low staffing levels could further add to inflation growth. The US cement sector may be doing well at the moment but even success carries risks.

Global Cement’s Robert McCaffrey will be giving a keynote presentation at the IEEE-PCA Cement Conference in Las Vegas on Tuesday 3 May 2022. The May 2022 issue of Global Cement Magazine, including interviews with PCA chief executive officer Mike Ireland and chief economist Ed Sullivan, is available to download now.

Cameroon: The government has enacted a ban on the export of cement, along with other commodities including oil and grain, from East Region. The Journal du Cameroun newspaper has reported that the impacts of the Russian invasion of Ukraine have exacerbated a difficult supply situation of the basic commodities in the region, dating to the beginning of the Covid-19 outbreak in the country in March 2020.

The East Region borders the Central African Republic and Congo. It has no cement plants of its own.

Serbia: The impacts of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine mean that the Serbian cement industry’s operations are ‘endangered’ and will likely fail to meet steady market demand in the coming months. Serbian Cement Industry Association director Dejana Milinkovic said that the industry relied on Russia and Ukraine for 50% of its coal supply in 2021.

In 2021, the industry produced 2.6Mt of cement, up by 10% year-on-year, operating close to 100% capacity utilisation.

US: Concrete companies have reported an on-going shortage of cement as a contributor to increased costs in the construction industry. Local press has reported that the shortage is the result of high demand, most notably from commercial projects. A lack of cement truck drivers has reportedly exacerbated the supply situation.

North Carolina-based ready-mix concrete producer Metrocon president Dan Crosby said that his company’s facilities are currently operating at 60% capacity due to the shortage.

India: A shortage of limestone in the Jammu and Kashmir union territory since December 2021 has resulted in cement plant workers being laid off in Udhampur district. The local sector has lobbied the regional government to supply limestone from state-controlled quarries to fix the situation, according to Asian News International. One cement plant employee interviewed by the news agency said that his plant had laid off around 80 workers from a total of 200 due to the shortage.

South Korea: Seven cement producers have agreed to produce 3.77Mt of cement in the second quarter of 2022, up by 36% quarter-on-quarter from first-quarter 2022 levels, to alleviate a shortage. 380,000t of cement which would previously have been exported will now supply the domestic market instead. The Yonhap News Agency has reported that bituminous coal supply issues have hampered the domestic cement industry's ability to increase its production in line with demand growth. In the first quarter of 2022, South Korea's coal imports consisted of 54% Russian coal and 46% Australian coal, compared to 75% Russian and 25% Australian coal in 2021.

The government plans to invest US$764m between 2023 and 2030 in improving the sustainability of South Korean cement production, including moving it away from reliance on coal through increased alternative fuel use.

Oman: The Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Investment Promotion has held a meeting with cement companies, importers, distributors and related government departments to discuss cement shortages in some regions of the country. One local plant has suspended production due to high input costs, according to the Oman Daily Observer newspaper. However, Oman Cement Company says it is prepared to boost its production by 10% to meet local demand. Following the meeting the ministry has taken several steps to ensure the availability of cement across the country and maintain prices. These include increasing the production output at some cement plants and increasing imports.

Mexico: Cemex says that it plans to restart Line 2 at its CPN cement plant in Sonora State. The line has a capacity of 0.8Mt/yr. Cemex will invest US$29m in restarting it, bringing its total recent investments in the CPN plant to US$44m. It previously invested US$15m in a restart of the plant’s 1Mt/yr Line 1 in 2021. When operational in mid-late 2022, Line 2 will join the existing line in supplying cement to Arizona, California and Nevada in the US.

Cemex USA president Jaime Muguiro said “Many cement customers in the western US have been impacted by tight supply constraints for several months, and at Cemex, we are proactively looking for opportunities to further alleviate those conditions and enrich customer experiences by enhancing how we operate while utilising our global reach.” He continued “Customers require more cement to keep pace with the region’s growth, and we want to ensure they have stable and steady access to the high-quality materials that are essential to meet their needs.”

Sri Lanka: Lanwa Sanstha Cement has successfully commissioned its 2.8Mt/yr Hambantota grinding plant in the Mirijjawila Export Processing Zone. Daily News (Sri Lanka) has reported that the facility is equipped with two bridge ship unloaders and an automated stacker reclaimer yard. It will produce the company’s full range of cements, including ordinary Portland cement (OPC), Portland composite cement (PPC) and blended hydraulic cement (BHC) catering to the rising local demand from landmark projects including the Port City and the network of expressways.

Russia made imports easier last week. At the end of January 2022 an order from Rosstandart, the national standisation agency, relaxed inspection controls allowing for simpler imports from countries outside the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Previously each such batch required a 28 day inspection period. This has now been dropped to encourage more imports of cement. Deputy Industry and Trade Minister Viktor Yevtukhov explained the reasoning behind the measure to InterFax, “In order to avoid problems in the domestic Russian cement market in the future, it is necessary to spur competition. It will balance the prices for this basic building material and will restrain their growth in case of such risks.”

Some idea of the situation facing the Russian cement market at the moment can be gleaned from market data supplied by CM Pro. Production rose by 7% year-on-year to 56.4Mt in the 11 months to November 2021. Imports rose by 26% to 1.6Mt at the same time. The Ministry of Industry and Trade has attributed this to a construction boom created by growth in both government-funded infrastructure projects and domestic housing. It also noted a local shortage and price increases in the Central Federal District in the autumn of 2021, although it said it redistributed cement from other regions to remedy the situation. This imbalance in the country’s main cement producing and consuming region, including Moscow, can also be seen in the figures. Production was about 2Mt below consumption in this area in 2019 and 2020. Yet so far, to November 2021, this gap grew to 2.7Mt. At the same time the price of cement reportedly jumped by 20% from November 2020 to December 2021.

Graph 1: Cement production in Russia, 2015 – 2021. Source: CM Pro and estimate from Global Cement.

It has been reported that the Ministry of Industry and Trade has also been wondering publicly why a study conducted in 2021 found that the national cement sector had an apparent operating capacity of 65Mt/yr compared to a total production capacity of 105Mt/yr, including mothballed and inactive plants and production lines. In other words the sector has been operating at a 62% production utilisation rate and the government is trying to coax it higher by opening up imports. And just to make sure that there was no confusion on the matter, Yevtukhov added, “I am sure that if the domestic producers will cope with the task of increasing the real volume of cement production and will not allow prices for their products to increase above the rate of inflation, the market will self-regulate, and additional imports of cement to Russia (which are traditionally small) will not be needed."

Given the country’s large size, imports seem to be mainly a threat to producers in the big population centres around Moscow and the Volga with good international transport links. Producers appear to have received and understood the message from the government as they have pledged to increase real operating capacity by 3 – 5Mt. The bear in the room for both Russian and European cement producers though is what happens in Ukraine in 2022. With North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members threatening economic sanctions and Russia supplying a significant share of Europe’s gas supply, any progression from the current rhetoric could cause discomfort to markets in both Russia and Europe. Turkish cement exporters, manufacturing in a NATO member country and hoping to take advantage of increased exports to Russia, could be in a particular bind if events heat up. All of this indicates that Smikom picked an interesting time to buy Russia’s largest cement producer, Eurocement, back in mid-2021. There’s an ongoing construction boom but also risks aplenty.

With apposite timing, LafargeHolcim Russia announced this week that it was going to reopen its integrated Voskresensk cement plant near Moscow. The unit was originally stopped in 2016. Now it plans to spend Euro23m on restarting the plant and building a dry construction mix unit at the site. Who says big government doesn’t work?