Displaying items by tag: costs

Japan: Domestic cement sales in April 2025 fell by 5% year-on-year to 2.6Mt, according to the Japan Cement Association. This marked the 32nd consecutive monthly decline, attributed to reduced construction hours under overtime restrictions. The Tohoku and Chugoku regions recorded the steepest falls, with labour shortages and rising construction costs driving the decline in Chugoku. Domestic demand has been in decline for six consecutive years, and continues to decline due to a combination of factors including the chronic labour shortage at construction sites, rising construction costs and the longer construction period due to the introduction of a full two-day weekend system at construction sites in recent years.

Demand for heavy building materials in the UK dropped in the first quarter of 2025, with ready-mix concrete sales reaching a new 60-year low.¹ In an update last week, the UK’s Mineral Products Association (MPA) attributed the decline to existing economic headwinds, compounded by global trade disruptions, reduced investor confidence and renewed inflationary pressures.

Major infrastructure projects – including the HS2 high-speed railway in the English Midlands, the Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant in Somerset and the Sizewell C nuclear power plant in Suffolk – failed to offset delays and cancellations by cash-strapped local councils to roadwork projects. Residential construction, meanwhile, is ‘slowly but steadily’ recovering from historical lows, amid continuing high mortgage rates since late 2024.

The most interesting part of the MPA’s market appraisal was its warning of ‘new risks emerging in the global economy.’ These concern the new tariffs raised by the US against its import partners. The possible consequences, the MPA says, imperil the UK’s supply chains, construction sector and growth.

Of particular immediacy is the threat of imports into the UK from countries that previously focussed on the US market. The MPA said that the industry ‘cannot compete’ against increased low-cost, CO₂-intensive imports. It named Türkiye, which sends around 6.9Mt/yr of cement and clinker to the US, as a key threat. Türkiye became subject to the blanket 10% ‘baseline’ tariff on 2 April 2025.

The MPA probably didn’t have a particular company in mind when it said this. However, it bears noting that Turkish interests gained a share of UK cement capacity in October 2024, when Çimsa acquired 95% of Northern Ireland-based Mannok. Besides the Derrylin cement plant (situated on the border between Fermanagh, UK, and Cavan, Ireland), Mannok operates the Rochester cement storage and distribution facility in Kent, 50km from London. The facility currently supplies cement from Derrylin to Southern England and the Midlands. It could easily serve as a base of operations for processing and distributing imported cement and clinker from further afield.

Meanwhile in South West England, Portugal-based Cimpor is building a €20 – 25m cement import terminal in the Port of Bristol. The company is subject to 20% tariffs on shipments to the US from its home country. Its parent company, Taiwan Cement Corporation, is subject to 32% US tariffs from Taiwan.

But the plot thickens… On 8 May 2025, the UK became the first country to conclude a trade agreement with the US after the erection of the new tariff regime, under which the US$73bn/yr-worth of British goods sold in the US became subject to a 10% tariff.² The latest agreement brought partial relief for an allied sector of UK cement: steel. 180,000t flowed into the US from the UK in 2024.³ In 2024, the UK exported 7120t of cement and clinker to the US, up by a factor of 10 decade-on-decade from just 714t in 2014, all of it into two US customs districts, Philadelphia and New York City.⁴

In what may be one of the first true ‘Brexit benefits,’ UK cement exporters now ‘enjoy’ a US tariff rate half that of their EU competitors, notably those in Greece. Like the UK’s more modest volumes, Greece’s 1.82Mt/yr-worth of cement and clinker exports stateside also enter via the US’ eastern seaports, at New York City, Tampa and Norfolk. Given the overlaps in ownership between the Greek and UK cement sectors, it is conceivable that optimisation of cement export flows across Europe may already be under discussion.

On 6 May 2025, the UK and Indian governments announced a trade deal that will lift customs duties on almost all current Indian exports to the UK. UK MPs are still seeking clarifications as to whether this will include industrial products that might be dumped.⁵ Theoretically, the threat from an oversupplied and fast-growing cement industry like India’s could be existential to the UK cement industry.

As the UK invests heavily in its future, including with the HyNet Consortium, imports pose a major threat. Given enough time, the UK could develop a leading position in the decarbonisation space. Will it have enough time? Existential threats certainly add a sense of jeopardy.

References
1. Mineral Products Association, ‘Weak start to 2025 for building materials sales amid growing economic headwinds,’ 6 May 2025, www.mineralproducts.org/News/2025/release16.aspx

2. HM Government, ‘UK overseas trade in goods statistics November 2024,’ 16 January 2025, www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-overseas-trade-in-goods-statistics-november-2024/uk-overseas-trade-in-goods-statistics-november-2024-commentary

3. UK Steel, ‘US 25% tariffs on UK steel imports come into effect,’ 12 March 2025, www.uksteel.org/steel-news-2025/us-25-tariffs-on-uk-steel-imports-come-into-effect

4. United States Geological Survey, ‘Cement in December 2024,’ January 2025, https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/media/files/mis-202412-cemen.pdf

5. Welsh Liberal Democrats, ‘UK-Indian Trade Deal: Government Refuses to Answer Whether it Has Conceded on Cheap Indian Steel Imports,’ 6 May 2025, www.libdems.wales/news/article/uk-indian-trade-deal-government-refuses-to-answer-whether-it-has-conceded-on-cheap-indian-steel-imports

Spain: Molins has reported that a cement market slowdown, exacerbated by tariffs and adverse weather in Spain and Argentina, affected its financial performance during the first quarter of 2025. The company reported sales of €327m, a 3% year-on-year decline compared to the same period of 2024, although like-for-like sales rose by 6%.

Molins’ earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) came to €87m, a 3% decline compared to the same period of 2024. Again the like-for-like result was a 9% improvement.

Molins reported that higher average sales prices and lower costs due to ongoing efficiency plans, mitigated the unfavourable impact of exchange rates, particularly the Mexican and Argentine Pesos.

Russia: Kavkazcement plans to spend US$224m on equipment modernisation after cement production costs rose by 30–34% in 2024, according to local news reports. The producer recorded a production increase of 11% year-on-year to 2Mt in 2024 and aims to grow output by a further 10% in 2025.

General director Sergey Bogomaz said “Cement from Kavkazcement is in demand in many regions of Russia. The main deliveries go to the Rostov Region, Volgograd Region and Krasnodar Krai. In our region, we see an increase in construction volumes. New infrastructure projects are emerging, such as the construction of the first airport in Karachay-Cherkessia.”

Pakistan: The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) government will replace ore-based royalties on cement with a 6% royalty on the ex-factory price.

The proposed change will raise costs for producers and follows a similar royalty imposed by the Punjab government in August 2024. Analysts said that manufacturers would need to raise cement prices significantly to offset the impact of the increased royalty.

India: The Tamil Nadu government will impose a mineral-bearing land tax of US$1.82/t on limestone under the Tamil Nadu Mineral Bearing Land Tax Act 2024. This tax, payable in advance on mineral dispatch, is in addition to existing royalty charges. The announcement follows Karnataka’s recent decision to levy US$0.29/t on limestone mined.

The tax will raise production costs for cement producers in the region, particularly affecting Ramco Cements, which has 52% of its clinker capacity in Tamil Nadu, and Dalmia Bharat, which has 23%. Other Indian cement producers are less affected, with UltraTech Cement only holding 4% capacity in the area, and ACC 2%. This could mean that the cost increase is passed on to consumers, raising the price of cement.

Vietnam: The general director of Vietnam Cement Industry Corporation (VICEM), Nguyen Thanh Tung, says that Vietnam will suffer continued cement overcapacity amid high production costs in 2025. Full-year production is forecast at 125Mt, 96% greater than an expected domestic demand of 63.5Mt. Việt Nam News has reported that Vietnam’s cement exports face an on-going investigation in Taiwan, and are already subject to anti-dumping duties in the Philippines.

VICEM aims to raise its domestic clinker sales volumes by 8% year-on-year to 18Mt, in order to generate sales of US$1.16bn. To this end, Tung urged the government to adopt cement reinforcement in roadbuilding, as well as lifting the export tax on cement.

Saudi Arabia: Northern Region Cement has announced a projected 10% increase in production costs following Saudi Aramco's adjustment of fuel prices.

The company stated that it will explore strategies to mitigate the financial impact, focusing on cost reduction and enhancing production and operational efficiency.

India: Cement companies are expected to report weak financial results for the December quarter of the 2025 financial year due to lower demand, suppressed by reduced government infrastructure spending and weak private capital expenditure, according to The Hindu Businessline.

Large players, including UltraTech Cement and Ambuja Cements, are expected to lead demand growth by 8% year-on-year in the December quarter, but earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) may decline by 18%. Efforts to increase prices in October and November 2024 were rolled back, and a mid-December increase reportedly failed to boost profits.

Parvez Qazi, research analyst at Nuvama Research, said “We expect further consolidation in the space mostly in the southern region due to its fragmented nature. Softening fuel prices, along with cost efficiency measures undertaken by various players, are likely to provide some relief on the cost front, thereby cushioning the impact of weak realisations to some extent.”

Saudi Arabia: Tabuk Cement has announced a 10% increase in production costs following a fuel price adjustment by Saudi Aramco, effective 1 January 2025. The financial impact will reflect in the company’s results from the first quarter of 2025.