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Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote was spotted attending the inauguration ceremony of Kenyan President William Ruto earlier in September 2022. This is relevant because Dangote’s cement company previously announced plans in 2016 to build two 1.5Mt/yr plants in Kenya, near Nairobi and Mombasa respectively. They were intended to become operational by 2021. Unfortunately, Dangote himself allegedly described Kenya as being more corrupt than Nigeria to Kenyan broadcast journalist Jeff Koinange a few years later and nothing more happened. Back in 2014 Ruto visited Dangote Cement’s Obajana plant in Kogi state in Nigeria when the politician was the Deputy President of Kenya. Dangote’s attendance at the presidential inauguration this month suggests at the very least that his relationship with Ruto remains active. Maybe more news on those planned plants will follow.

Graph 1: Cement in Kenya, 2018 – June 2022. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).

The reason why the owner of Africa’s largest cement company might be interested in the Kenyan market can be seen in its latest cement production figures. Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that production for the first half of 2022 grew by 20% year-on-year to 4.95Mt in the first half of 2022, from 4.12Mt in the same period in 2021. Cement production was broadly similar in 2018 and 2019 at around 6Mt. It then increased by 25% to 9.25Mt in 2021 from 7.41Mt in 2020. On a rolling annual basis, production picked up at the start of 2020 and has risen consistently since then each month, peaking at over 10Mt in May 2022.

However, the elections in August 2022 probably slowed this growth trend, despite being much more peaceful than those in 2007, although the KNBS is yet to release the data. Bamburi Cement said in its outlook for the second half of 2022 that it expected markets to recover after the ballot. The subsidiary of Holcim reported increasing turnover in the first half of 2022, due to mounting sales volumes and price rises, but its profit fell sharply. It blamed this on fuel and logistics inflation, growing clinker import costs as well as negative currency exchange effects.

That last point about imported clinker is worth noting given that a government report in late 2021 found that the country had a clinker shortage of up to 3.3Mt/yr. Yet, the KNBS data in recent years shows that cement production and consumption are broadly similar, suggesting that the shortfall in clinker is being imported. The report added that 59% of the imported clinker originated from Egypt, tariff free, due to a free trade agreement. Local producers were reported to have been operating at a 65% capacity utilisation rate. Egypt and the UAE accounted for most of the imported clinker followed by Saudi Arabia. An interview in the Standard newspaper at this time with Bamburi Cement’s managing director Seddiq Hassani revealed that, despite locally produced clinker being cheaper than imported clinker, some producers were reluctant to hand control of a key input material over to their local competitors. Other producers, predictably, were trying to persuade the government to raise the duty on imports of clinker from 10% to 25%. Tariff discussions have continued in 2022.

So far in 2022 the other big stories in the sector have included Bamburi Cement’s plans to build two solar power plants and a major repair to the kiln shell at East Africa Portland Cement’s (EAPCC) Athi River cement plant. The solar plants will be built next to Bamburi Cement’s integrated Mombasa plant and its Nairobi grinding plant. Once operational in 2023 they are anticipated to supply up to 40% of the cement producer’s total power supply. Devki Group, the owner of National Cement, also announced plans in August 2022 to set up a wind farm near Mombasa. However, this seems more like an attempt to diversify the group into electricity production rather than to supply its own plant near Nairobi. EAPCC’s upgrade project has completed this week after about a month and half of work. It is intended to increase the plant’s cement production by 50%.

Cement production started in rise in 2020 but the Covid-19 pandemic may have constrained this. Production (and consumption) then jumped up in 2021 and looks set to do similar in 2022 bar a possible blip from the elections in August 2022. This is despite the global market issues arising from the end of Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. These may be uncertain times but the fundamentals for the Kenyan cement market look positive despite rising end prices. Unsurprisingly, it looks likely that Dangote Cement remains keen to extend its business to Kenya.

Spain: Sustainability Observatory's Decarbonisation 2022 report has named FCC, Cemex and Holcim on a list of Spain's top 10 CO₂ emitters. Construction conglomerate FCC, parent company of Cementos Portland Valderrivas, was the seventh largest contributor the country's CO₂ emissions during the year. Mexico-based Cemex placed joint eighth with energy provider Iberdrola at 2.4Mt-worth of CO₂ emissions in 2021, followed by Switzerland-based Holcim with 2Mt.

Spanish CO₂ emissions grew by 5.1% year-on-year in 2021, and by 3% across industries subject to emissions credit trading, which include the cement sector. Together, the top 10 emitters accounted for 57% of these industries' emissions, and 19% of total national emissions.

Spain: Oficemen has blamed falling exports of cement on high electricity prices. The cement association reports that exports fell by around 25% year-on-year to 3.76Mt for the first eight months of 2022 from over 5Mt in the same period in 2021. Local consumption of cement slowed to an increase of just 0.2% to 9.88Mt from 9.86Mt.

Aniceto Zaragoza, the general director of Oficemen, said “Electricity costs in our sector have increased by 400% in the last two years, a situation that worsens every day due to the energy crisis we are suffering. Without competitive electricity costs, it is impossible for our industry, which for many years has led the cement export market, to continue competing with other producers in the Mediterranean area that pay much less for their energy inputs, such as Algeria, Turkey or Egypt.”

Argentina: Total despatches of cement grew by 11% year-on-year to 8.54Mt in the first eight months of 2022 from 7.67Mt in the same period of 2021. Data from the Asociación de Fabricantes de Cemento Portland (AFCP) shows that local despatches increased by 11.5% to 8.47Mt but exports fell by 10% to 67,800t.

Chile: Despatches of cement fell by 10% year-on-year to 2.25Mt in the first seven months of 2022 from 2.51Mt in the same period in 2021. Data from the Cámara Chilena de la Construcción (CCHC) shows that cumulative annual despatches have been falling month-on-month since January 2022.

US: Total US cement shipments grew by 4% to 52.4Mt in the first half of 2022 from 50.4Mt in the same period in 2021. Data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) shows that local shipments and imports rose by 3.5% to 44.1Mt and 7% to 8.31Mt respectively. The largest sources of imports of cement and clinker were Turkey at 4.57Mt, Canada at 2.19Mt, Mexico at 1.28Mt, Greece at 1.23Mt and Vietnam at 0.94Mt. The largest cement producing states in the reporting period, in descending order, were Texas, California and Missouri.

Pakistan: Cement sales fell by 24% year-on-year in Pakistan in August 2022, due to increased energy, fuel and transport costs. Total despatches for the month came to 3.3Mt, against 4.3Mt a year earlier, according to data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA). Local shipments for August 2022 came to 2.9Mt against 3.8Mt in August 2021, a fall of 24%. Exports fell by 26% to 0.39Mt from 0.52Mt in August 2021.

APCMA officials are of the view that the government needs to generate a viable policy for the construction industry, keeping in view the huge damage to national infrastructure after unprecedented recent flooding.

Senegal: Data from the National Agency for Statistics and Demography (ANSD) indicates that cement exports fell by 34% month-on-month in June 2022, although local sales rose by 4%. Overall cement production fell by 2% as manufacturers battle the economic impacts of the war in Ukraine.

Tajikistan: Cement production fell by 7% year-on-year to 2Mt in the first half of 2022 from 2.16Mt in the same period in 2021. The Avesta News Agency reports no reason for the decline but it noted that the construction sector had grown so far in 2022. The country’s cement industry exports around 1.5Mt/yr to neighbouring countries including Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.

Congratulations are due to the National Cement Company of Alabama and Vicat for the inauguration of the new production line at the Ragland cement plant in Alabama. The event took place on 21 July 2022.

The US$300m project was originally announced in late 2019. It then took two years to build with construction starting in January 2020. Key features include a raw vertical grinding mill, a new roller mill, a five stage preheater tower, an automatic clay storage system, a 78m tall homogenisation silo, an alternative fuels storage area for tyre-derived fuel, sawdust and wood chips, a laboratory and a new control room. The new kiln was previously reported to have a clinker production capacity of 5000t/day and it will add up to 2Mt/yr of cement production capacity to the plant. ThyssenKrupp signed up as the principal equipment supplier in 2019 and H&M was the main contractor. The production line is expected to reduce energy consumption by one third. Further change is scheduled with a switch to production of Portland limestone cement (PLC) from Ordinary Portland cement (OPC) by the start of 2023.

Vicat has repeatedly noted its affection for the plant as it was the first cement plant the group purchased outside of France, back in 1974. Indeed, Vicat’s group chair and chief executive officer Guy Sidos personally managed the Ragland plant in 2001. However, rather more prosaic reasons may also have been behind the decision to expand Ragland. According to United States Geological Survey (USGS) data, Alabama, Kentucky and Tennessee’s cement shipments grew by nearly 5% year-on-year to 7.1Mt in 2019 from 6.8Mt in 2018. Shipments are up by 3% year-on-year to 2.5Mt in the first four months of 2022 and the three states were the fifth largest region in the US for cement shipments in April 2022. A shortage of cement was also reported in Alabama in April 2022.

The other big US-based cement plant expansion is Lehigh Hanson’s US$600m upgrade to its Mitchell plant in Indiana. It also celebrated a milestone this week with a ‘topping out’ ceremony to mark the placement of the final section of steel for the stack. Another recent achievement here was the completion of a 169,000t storage dome supplied by Dome Technologies. The supplier says that the 67m diameter and 48m tall dome is the second largest clinker storage facility in Europe and North America, after one it previous built in Romania in 2008.

The Mitchell K4 project was announced in mid-2018 and then ground breaking began in late 2019. However, the start of the coronavirus pandemic delayed construction in early 2020 before it restarted in September 2020. The revised commissioning date was then moved back about half a year to early 2023. The key part of this project is that it will replace the plant’s three current kilns with just one. The new production line will increase the site’s production capacity, reduce energy usage and decrease CO₂ emissions per tonne of cement. It was reported by local press back in 2018 that the project would increase the plant’s cement production capacity to 2.8Mt/yr. The project has been linked to supplier KHD with CCC Group as the contractor.

It’s fascinating to see two major new upgrades to cement plants emerging in a mature market like the US and during an unprecedented event like the emergence of coronavirus. No doubt compelling tales will emerge of how both teams coped with managing nine-figure capital expansion projects as a global public health emergency unfolded. The US market has been on a roll in recent years, despite all the uncertainty in the world, and so far it doesn’t seem to be slowing down. With luck both of the projects feature above have timed their opening right.