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Talk of US tariffs on imports from Mexico was not troubling the National Chamber of Cement (CANACEM) this week. Director general Yanina Navarro pointed out to local media that Mexico only exports 1.42Mt or 3.4% of its total production of 44Mt/yr to its northern neighbour. This is a little higher than the 1.04Mt reported by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in 2018, although that figure is believed to have underestimated imports to El Paso district in Texas. Mexico was the fifth largest exporter of hydraulic cement and clinker to the US behind Canada, Turkey, China and Greece.

Commentators pointed out that Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua (GCC) might be affected more that other Mexican producers as two of its plants are close to the border at Samalayuca and Juárez in Chihuahua. However, GCC operates five plants in the US. Cemex also has a plant near the US border at Ensenada in Baja California. Yet it’s the fourth largest producer in the US by integrated production capacity. If either company had its export markets seriously disrupted by any border duties they could likely focus on production in the US to compensate.

Once again this is similar to the situation with the proposed border wall where, although President Donald Trump wanted Mexico to pay, it would have been Mexican companies benefiting the most from any construction boom. This was also the case with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the successor to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The international structure of many of the larger Mexican cement producers insulates them from these kinds of political and trade disputes.

Mexican producers shouldn’t be too complacent though. Tariffs are likely to play havoc with integrated supply chains as in the car industry. Building materials will probably be affected less so but that 1.42Mt export figure is more than the production capacity of many individual Mexican cement plants. Taking away this export market will drag on the industry’s utilisation rate and alternate destinations may be hard to find. Note the trouble Mexico has had distributing its products in Peru. The Supreme Court there upheld a fine this week on UNACEM for trying to block the distribution of Cemex’s brand of cement in 2014. Also, although Trump’s tariffs on Chinese products may not have much of an impact on building materials, USGS data shows that Chinese imports of cement to the US fell by 27% year-on-year to 0.76Mt in the six months to the end of February 2019. Similar reductions could await Mexico’s exporters.

The general consensus from the free market press is that tariffs will ultimately hurt both economies. In agreement the Portland Cement Association (PCA) published a market report in April 2018 on the effects of tariffs on US cement consumption in the wake of tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from the European Union (EU), Canada and Mexico. The summary was that all forms of tariff – from minor to a global trade war – would likely result in reduced US cement consumption to varying degrees due to slower economic growth. A full-scale set of tariffs on Mexican imports is likely to induce similar consequences.

Dominican Republic: Alexander Medina Herasme, the director of the General Directorate of Mining, says that the country exported grey cement worth US$72.3m in 2018, according to the El Caribe newspaper. The nation has five integrated cement plants and two grinding plants.

Mexico/US: Yanina Navarro, the general director of the National Chamber of Cement (CANACEM), says that Mexican cement producers are not worried by US tariffs on imports. Mexico exports 1.42Mt or 3.4% of its total production of 44Mt/yr to its neighbour, according to the EL Financiero newspaper. Data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) placed Mexico at the fifth largest exporter of cement to the US after Canada, Turkey, China and Greece.

Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua (GCC) could be affected more than other Mexican producers by any tariffs as 17% of its production is exported to the US. Mainly this covers production from plants at Samalayuca and Juárez in Chihuahua. Hoevever, GCC operates five plants in the US, which would enable it to reduce the potential negative affects of tariffs.

Senegal: Falling export sales have reduced cement production. Exports dropped by 28% year-on-year to 0.14Mt in March 2019 from 0.2Mt in March 2018, according to the Agence de Presse Africaine. Cement production fell by 10% year-on-year to 0.59Mt in the first quarter of 2019 from 0.66Mt in the same period in 2018. Local sales remained stable in March 2019.

Bolivia: Imports of cement fell by 30% year-on-year to 0.19Mt in 2018 from 0.27Mt in 2017. Data from the Bolivian Foreign Trade Institute and the National Institute of Statistics of Bolivia shows that cement imports were 0.51Mt in 2016, according to Hoy Bolivia. In 2018 Peru was the largest exporting country to Bolivia followed by Brazil, Argentina and Mexico. An increase in local production through the opening on new plants has contributed to the declining imports.

Gabon: Cement production rose by 42% year-on-year to 0.49Mt in 2018 from 0.34Mt in 2017. Sales rose at a similar rate to 0.49Mt, according to Infos Gabon. The Ministry of Economy attributed the growth in production and sales to the government’s decision to suspend imports of cement in mid-2017.

Colombia: Ordinary Portland Cement production grew by 4% year-on-year to 3.05Mt in the first quarter of 2019 from 2.93Mt in the same period in 2018. Data from DANE, the Colombian statistics authority, shows that deliveries to the local market increased slightly, by 3%, to 2.94Mt.

India: Cement production grew by 10% year-on-year to 91.5Mt in the first quarter of 2019 from 81.9Mt in the same period in 2018. Data from the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) at the Ministry of Commerce & Industry shows that production sped up in March 2019.

Romania: Data from CIROM, the Romanian cement association, shows that cement sales grew by 5.5% year-on-year to 8.9Mt in 2018, according to the
Ziarul Financiar newspaper. The country operates nine integrated cement plants run by HeidelbergCement, LafargeHolcim and CRH.

Ukraine: Data from the State Statistics Service shows that cement production grew by 23% year-on-year to 1.53Mt in the first quarter of 2019. Production accelerated in March 2019, according to the Ukrainian News Agency. Annual cement production fell by 1% to 8.93Mt in 2018.